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october 13th 14.17
Sunday 4.45 Limerick Munster National
This was the race that I first backed Tiger Roll in back in 2016 - an unexposed 6 year old chaser making its handicap debut for Gordon Elliott and he won if with considerable ease at 20/1.
Tomorrow he runs a very similar horse in the shape of the ironically named Its All Guesswork and I can see Elliott winning the race for a second time.
It is important to note this race is won by unexposed young chasers - no horse over the age of 8 has won this in the last 14 years and 11 of the last 13 winners have only had 1 or 2 chase wins.
Those stats have to act against Rogue Angel (10) and Our Father who has been well backed but been off the course for 1382 days! plus my old favourite Raz de Maree who is now 13.
Elliott also runs Alpha des Obeaux who has swapped stables from Mouse Morris - but he usually needs his first run and maybe Elliott has kept him in off top weight to allow Its All Guesswork to run off 10 stone dead - would have been a 10lb rise otherwise.
The selection has been running over shorter trips over fences so far but shapes like it will stay 3 miles and in its one attempt over the distance over hurdles won very easily.
It seems capable of running on any sort of going and for me ticks all the right boxes.
I have been backing it during the week each way @ 12/1 and some at 10/1 and still think the latter price is decent
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