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september 16th 14.46
We came up just shy in Holland last week with Simon Dyson finishing strong for 2nd but as a general rule anything 33/1 and below is usually win only for me. This week we have the Wales Open from Celtic Manor where I am happy to leave alone any Ryder Cuppers who I am sure will have their thoughts elsewhere. I really do like the look of Simon Dyson again but not at the price and I am sure Ed Molinari will get another victory soon. The man I was keen to back was Paul Waring but his price is just too short in my opinion - instead I have come up with three picks at varying prices and a first round leader bet as well.
Thongchai Jaidee has been having a great year and having finally got a win on European soil here two years ago he added another in the Nordea Masters. He also came close with a 5th in Germany and may well have added a third victory in France where he came unstuck early on the Sunday in poor weather before rallying to finish tied 2nd. Talking of the weather then he will feel more at home in Wales this weekend where conditions will be unseasonably warm and humid with the chance of a thunderstorm - much more like Thailand! I don't usually like backing players who have won an event before but he has proven that he can win at the same venue in the Far East having done it three times which is most unusual. The key to playing well at Celtic Manor appears to be solid GIR stats and whilst he only managed 26th in his title defence he was 3rd in that category. There is a little bit of doubt over his fitness as I expected him back from his break in Thailand last week but I still think he is worth a decent bet 0.5 ew 45/1
Last year Gregory Bourdy finally converted at Celtic Manor having held some great GIR stats on previous visits - indeed he had ranked 1st and 2nd twice before converting so that may well inspire fellow Frenchman Raphael Jacquelin to follow suit. He was 2nd in that category here in 2008 on his debut when 3rd outright and 4th in 2010. Jacquelin can sometimes hit terrible spells of form where mORe

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