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from our resident professional gambler
april 21st 10.48
It’s the London Marathon tomorrow and whilst I have every respect for Kipchoge who is a deserved favourite there is a dark horse in the race and even with an odds on favourite it is nice to see a lot of books paying 1/5th the odds the first three home.
The weather is going to be unseasonably warm and I can see quite a few of the leading contenders dropping out especially if they go the fast pace to aim for records.
I really like the look of Lawrence Cherono (especially each way) as he is the 5th fastest runner in the field but has been assigned odds much higher than he should be – probably because he hasn’t run in a Major event before yet his record is an impressive one in lesser marathons.
Over the past couple of years his record reads 2/1/2/1/DNF/2/1/1 – that is incredibly consistent. Two of those last three wins have come in the Honolulu marathon which by definition is a warm weather marathon run on a very hilly course. In 2016 he won in 2.09.39 – knocking nearly 2 minutes off the course record and three minutes faster than previous London marathon winner Wilson Kipsang. He returned in December last year and lowered the record to 2.08.27!! Even more impressive is that just two months before he had won the Amsterdam Marathon in a course record 2.05.09 – a personal best for him and lowering the course record of Daniel Wanjiru who used Amsterdam as a stepping stone to winning the London Marathon last year.
So Wanjiru is around a 10/1 shot for tomorrow yet Cherono is five times the price – it makes absolutely no sense! He will probably have to improve his PB to contend but he is a rapidly improving runner who really should be an awful lot shorter especially with the each way market paying three places.
It took a bit of shopping around but I have £30 ew 50/1 and £30 win only 50/1 – good luck! MORE
 
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