Apologies for the lack of newsletters of late I have simply not had the time or had any new ideas to talk about! This should hopefully now change with the golf season winding down.
I had an interesting email “conversation” with a blog reader this week who rightly noted my tips aren’t really returning much of a profit and how can I call myself a professional gambler? Good point well made but he went on to say that basically I must just be arbing and not gambling and this is something I really must take issue with.
Basically there are in my mind three types of bettor in the modern world - arbers,traders and gamblers and I admit to doing a bit of the second and mostly the third. As far as I am concerned arbers simply guarantee a profit by betting all potential outcomes to less than 100% and at a push this would include punters who take a bookmaker price and lay back on the exchanges to lock in a profit. This is the type of punter that the bookmakers despise as they aren’t really gambling and they give such people short thrift but there is a grey area really - how are bookmakers to know whether someone is arbing? They simply could be taking advantage of a generous price. This is what I would do - the nature of gambling is using your edge to make a profit - I wouldn’t lay back a bet if I thought I had got a generous price - to my mind it simply doesn’t make sense if you are betting long term.
As a trader on Betfair I will back golfers at large prices and then try and lay at lower prices during the course of a tournament but I will not lay back at higher than 10% of the original price I took. That is simply a personal choice and I fall foul of the golden rule of trading by leaving prices up when people are probably taking advantage of some of my generous lays but I simply do not have the time to follow the golf live every hour of the day so I have to do what I can. I guess as a trader this is where most money can be made simply swallowing up money left up by people who leave up lays to be matched at a level they are prepared to take.
Then we get to the gambling - which are the tips and I have to admit they haven’t shown good results although trading the tips has been profitable in many cases. I do not trade these bets unless I have backed the golfers in question also on Betfair, this is purely for the reason that I have backed them to win or place. One thing to also remember is that the prices I put up I have usually taken a higher price so I do make a comfortable profit each year but the last eighteen months have not been as good as they could have been. That therefore is the nature of the gambler - the arber/trader has a regular steady income stream and the gambler backing at high odds has a very volatile one!
On the subject of getting the best price available it is staggering to know that around 75% of punters don’t really shop around and stick to an average of four accounts to get their bets on. I admit to being different because I have to be but I have friends who bet “casually” who just have one or two accounts. If you include yourself in the group of people that doesn’t have the time or inclination to shop around for best price and potentially increase your winnings by up to 12% why not give Betbutler a go? They are an online brokerage service charging 3% of your stakes and source the best prices for you from around sixty bookmakers. They have been around long enough now to feel I can recommend them to SBI followers.
I haven’t implemented the site changes I talked about last month but this will happen shortly when my designer (ie the wife!) has some spare time.