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SPORTS BETTING INDEX was founded in 2000 to help punters with all aspects of internet betting as the phenomenon of online gambling took off.
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Newsletter 17
It has been quite a frustrating week as I had done all my research for the European Qualifying School which starts tomorrow morning yet not one bookmaker seemed to be prepared to price it up - or be brave enough to issue their prices. Skybet were eventually first up yesterday morning and Bet365 followed suit a few hours later and since then we have added Betfred, Sportingbet and Stan James. Now don’t get me wrong what bookmakers offer is entirely up to them but it seems madness not to offer a golf event to bet on which they will be able to trade on between rounds for six days especially when the only events being played next week have already been priced up. Anyway - rant over and onto my thoughts on who to bet on in this “lottery” where I have had some success in the past - as recently as last year we got Andy Sullivan in the frame at 100/1.

The last three stagings of this event at Catalunya have been won by men with very similar profiles.

2011 David Dixon aged 31 had won the St Omer Open in 08, had played the Q school six times and been successful four times but hadn’t played it for four years

2010 Simon Wakefield aged 36 had won on the Challenge Tour in 02 and the Sunshine Tour in 05, had played the Q school four times and had been 2nd but hadn’t played it for six years

2009 Simon Khan aged 37 had won the Wales Open in 04 had played the Q school twice and made it through both times but hadn’t played it for seven years.

Putting on my Robbie Coltrane “Cracker” hat then there is a definite profile - we are looking for an Englishman in his thirties who has won on the main or Challenge tour, who has played the Q school numerous times with some success but not recently which narrows things down nicely!!

Main bet is Richard McEvoy who is 33 and won the Panama Open back in 2004 and actually won the Q school back in 2003. He hasn’t had to visit the Q school recently as he has managed to secure his card at the last gasp - in 2011 he was 3rd at the South African Open and in 2010 an 8th place at the Dunhill links kept his playing privileges alive. This clearly shows a man who can play well under the pressure that these six days brings - in fact he has said before for some reason he plays his best golf under the cosh. He became a father for the second time just a few weeks ago and I think that may also spur him on - he needs those bigger pay cheques even more now! 0.3 ew 100/1.

The second profile selection goes to a man who has missed his last eight cuts on tour - not very promising really but Dixon was in a similar run of form last year.Kenneth Ferrie is now 34 and actually won on tour just last year in Austria beating Wakefield (see above) in a playoff, but he only got a one year exemption so has wound up in Spain this week. He hasn’t had to play the Q school since 2001 but was successful in his last two attempts and he made it through the 2007 Q school for the PGA tour. As he fit’s the bill but is in poor form we will limit the bet to 0.1 ew 150/1

Others to consider are Dougherty and Elson but for my third selection I will move away from the profiling and go for a player who has only been a pro for four months. Young American Brooks Koepka turned pro after the US Open where he qualified as an amateur but missed the cut, he was a good college player winning three times in his final six months and then turned his attention to turning pro and ended up in Europe playing the Challenge Tour. He only started playing in July but nearly got his playing card by right in a few starts especially after he won the Challenge de Catalunya in September. He seems really happy to be back in this area of Spain again and who can blame him with such great memories and the courses are pretty similar. He may surprise a few people this week and is worth a bet - 0.2 ew 80/1.

Hopefully you all get some money down but don’t get too excited if tomorrow they go low - there are six days of agonising leader board watching to go through!

 
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