contact us | about us | sitemap
follow SBI on follow SBI on Twitter
Sports Betting Index - sportsbettingindex.com
home bookmakers odds comparison betting blog betting tools useful sites newsletters tipping results
SPORTS BETTING INDEX was founded in 2000 to help punters with all aspects of internet betting as the phenomenon of online gambling took off.
Whilst the site has changed and developed over time the core beliefs remain the same: being independent, honest and open.
Newsletter 23
To my mind we have two very different races this Sunday with a highly competitive mens race and a womens race that lacks a little strength in depth. Like last year I have done a tissue price for the top men and bet accordingly but I haven’t bothered with the women as I make Tiki Gelana such a short priced favourite. To be honest she should be 2/1 or shorter but I think it is madness backing an athlete at that sort of price in a marathon when so much can happen. There is one dark horse in the field in the shape of Messelech Melkamu and I have had a small bet each way @ 16/1. She has only run one marathon before last year in Frankfurt running 2.21.01 to win comfortably. That time was more than a minute faster than anyone has ever run Frankfurt and it is interesting to note that Kipsang holds the mens record over the course and he won London last year. The one thing that niggles me is that she DNF in the World Cross Country Champs four weeks ago and I can’t find out why, I know it was a late addition to her schedule as she wasn’t due to compete and was drafted in late - maybe she was saving herself for London?

I will go through the top men one by one in order of my tissue price

Wilson Kipsang 3/1 - last years tip and winner at around the 7/1 mark but I can’t pull the trigger at this years price. Since that win he started as favourite for the Olympics but could only manage 3rd and then won the Honolulu marathon in December. He really is a prolific winner and won the New York Half Marathon last month in a pretty average time, but it is not easy to defend and I will pass at the price.

Geoffrey Mutai 4/1 - the Kenyan actually holds the fastest ever marathon time but the Boston course is not actually ratified due to its overall downhill nature. That was in 2011 when he also won the New York marathon in a course record time. He pulled out of the 2012 Boston event as he struggled in the hot weather but later in the year won the Berlin marathon in the 4th fastest time ever. This year he broke 59 minutes in a half marathon for the first time ever in the RAK event but was only third. I can only bet if I think his price is too big and to be honest it seems about right.

Tsegaye Kebede 4/1 - is probably one of the most consistent marathon runners of the modern era and you know you will always get a good run from the diminutive Ethiopian. In the last five years he has run in twelve, finished them all, had five wins and eleven podium finishes. His record in London is 2nd 1st 5th and 3rd and I knew I wouldn’t get anywhere near the 20/1 I got last year as then he was coming off a 5th London and 3rd New York season. In his Fall marathon he showed he was as good as ever when breaking the course record in Chicago and running a personal best. With his record he will be a strong candidate for a podium finish and at 8/1 I make him a very strong each way bet.

Emmanuel Mutai 9/1 - the 2011 Champion but that remains the only big marathon he has won although it is rare to find him outside the top four or five. Last year he struggled in 7th in his defence but he had suffered a bout of typhoid in the run up - hardly the greatest build up. Although he has a quick race in him I think he will again find a few too good for him.

Patrick Makau 9/1 - the current world record holder when he won Berlin in 2011 but earlier that year he was only 3rd in London. He ran here last year but pulled out with injury and despite winning in Frankfurt in October he didn’t look comfortable and he chose an odd race in Hawaii last month for his warm up - I am just not convinced.

Stanley Biwott 10/1 - if there was to be a surprise package this year it could well come in the shape of this young Kenyan who celebrates his 27th birthday on raceday. He has improved in leaps and bounds the last two years culminating in winning Paris in the spring last year in a course record time. He raced mainly in the US after that and was undefeated and was very disappointed when New York was cancelled. He kicked off this year running his fastest ever half marathon in the RAK and 10th fastest of all time and finishing in 2nd one place ahead of Geoffrey Mutai. He is definitely capable of troubling those at the top and I have backed him each way at 20/1 and 16/1.

Ayele Abshero 16/1 - shot to prominence by making the fastest ever debut in a marathon in Dubai last year and was chosen for the Ethiopian Olympic team but failed to finish. To my mind the youngster lacks the experience to beat the best in the world.

Stephen Kiprotich 20/1 - the 100/1 surprise winner of the Olympic Gold but the young Ugandan will find conditions very different on Sunday. He will need to run at least three minutes faster than he has ever done before and I don’t think a second shock is on the cards.

To sum up then and give my bets a “scale”

Tsegaye Kebede 1 pt ew 8/1 1/5 3 (7/1 OK)
Stanley Biwott 0.3 ew 16/1 1/5 3 (14/1 OK)
Messelech Melkamu 0.25 ew 14/1 1/5 3 (12/1 OK)

 

 
sportsbettingindex.com
home | bookmakers | odds comparison | betting blog | betting tools | useful sites | newsletters | tipping results