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SBI Blog 2012 All of our blogs from 2012
December 30th 10.45
Another quick blog post - it doesn't feel like 12 days since the last one! I hope you all had a good Christmas, I decided to have a bit more of a break and hence am a bit behind on the new site look so it won't be ready exactly at the beginning of January. In 2013 there will also be a totally new approach to the golf betting tips having learnt a lot of lessons over the last two years - all will become apparent in the fullness of time. The first event on the PGA tour is the Hyundai Tournament of Champions which kicks off in Kapalua on Friday and thre is every chance there will be a bet. I will be swerving the Volvo Champions on the European tour tipping wise so will have to wait for the Abu Dhabi Championship on that tour. Have fun over New Year and keep an eye on Twitter for any updates
December 18th 20.55
A quick blog post - probably one of the last ones before Christmas - hopefully you all have a good one and I for one like to take some time off the gambling to spend it with family. If you do happen to have a spare fiver lying around do have a go at this wonderful Christmas Golf Raffle which has some excellent prizes and is for a great cause.
Today I have produced the latest edition of the Independent Bookmaker Guide and have reduced the price down from £49 to £19 for which you get links to bookmakers providing up to £250 of free bets plus lots offering various concessions especially Best Odds Guaranteed which most main books seem to be cutting back on - simply click here to find out more
December 12th 12.11
Well here goes - the final write up for 2012 - I hope you all have enjoyed reading at least some of the stuff I have written and hopefully managed to just pick the bets out that made a return!
Quite a few tipsters have already pointed out the link between Leopard Creek and Royal Park Roveri that I found a few months ago and that led me to tipping Mulroy who came a gallant 2nd at 200/1 and I have used that link in reverse to come up with the main bet of the week in David Horsey. He is a talented player and a proven winner and seems very confident that his game is coming around after a poorish season. He has finished 2nd at Royal Park but has only played Leopard Creek the once improving with every round in 2008 when 21st. I went in early @ 66/1 0.5 ew and then had to top up with a further 0.25 ew @ 80/1 when a few books made him bigger.
I have been really impressed by young German Moritz Lampert - maybe the next Martin Kaymer! As an amateur he made it through Q School finishing 4th in the final confirming the promise he showed this year in amateur events. This year he has won the Portuguese and German amateurs, finished 2nd in the Lytham Trophy and 3rd in the Eisenhower. That last event was top quality and the 4th placed Julien Brun has already won on the Euro Challenge Tour. He is a player I would like to get on early in his career as II can only see his price contracting over time 0.1 ew 200/1
Michael Jonzon has a great record in South Africa - well for top tens anyway, in the last four years in eight starts he has three top tens. The latest of those came in the South African Open just last month and he was also 8th here in 2008 His best result last year was 6th at Royal Park Roveri and having regained his card at Q school he will be keen to wrap it up early this time round 0.1 ew 200/1 + 0.2 Top 10 20/1
Last bet comes in the form of a round one leader bet and hopefully Craig Lee is inspired by the win of fellow Scot Jamieson last week. Lee has only played in South Africa six times in his career but has found himself in the top five after the first round on three occasions. On his one start here in 2007 he was 2nd and in his three starts in the country this year he has been 13th, 3rd and 4th. With a nice early tee time he has to be worth a bet 0.15 ew 125/1.
December 12th 10.17
First of all I will just get the two bets out of the way that start tonight. The Australian PGA Championship is the weakest of the three "Majors" down under and there have to be question marks about most of the leading protagonists - if I had to pick one it would be O'Hern but having had a big e/w bet on him last year which saw him finish inevitably 6th I will pass. Going down the field nothing really caught my eye apart from James Nitties who has a good record at Coolum. He led going into the final round here on his debut in 2004 before finishing 2nd and also has an 8th place to his name. In six starts he has been 3rd, 1st and 6th after round one so with an early tee time I have split the bet 0.15 ew 80/1 + 0.15 ew Rd 1 leader 66/1.
In the Iskandar Johor Open I struggled to find anything of note but have had a small bet on Javi Colomo who has been getting off to lightening fast starts in Asia of last only to fade rapidly out of contention. In his last four starts he has been 3rd, 1st, 4th and 3rd in fields which were probably stronger in depth. His lack of course form doesn't put me off as he didn't have any at the previous venues either Rd 1 leader 0.15 ew 50/1
December 11th 16.49
A quick summary of bets placed this week - there in one I want to back for the Australian PGA but will wait to see what happens on Betfair overnight. Write-ups for this weeks bets will appear tomorrow
Iskandar Johor Open
Javi Colomo Rd 1 leader 0.15 ew 50/1
Alfred Dunhill Championship
David Horsey 0.5 ew 66/1 + 0.25 ew 80/1 (punished for going early!)
Moritz Lampert 0.1 ew 200/1
Craig Lee Rd 1 leader 0.15 ew 125/1
Michael Jonzon 0.1 ew 200/1 + 0.2 Top 10 20/1
December 9th 12.31
Well it looks like in the Nelson Mandela event we will yet again just come up shy - who knows what would have happened if it had gone ahead as scheduled but best not to dwell on things. I know the tipping results page is a bit behind - been busy on site redesign but will endeavour to correct tomorrow. Next week sees the end of the golfing season and I for one am looking forward to a break after a poor and frustrating year. We actually have three events to get stuck into with the Alfred Dunhill Championship, Australian PGA Championship and Iskandar Johor Open - lets hope we can finish the year on a high note!
December 5th 12.21
Most people seem to not be looking forward to the Nelson Mandela Championship from Royal Durban but I see it is a challenge which may well favour the punter. A new course and a quirky one at that built inside Greyville racecourse at the end of a long and tiring season despite it being the start of the new European season and with some iffy weather makes it an interesting conundrum to unravel. With that in mind I have spread my bets to cover lots of different bases!
Tyrone van Aswegen was the first price that jumped out at me when early shows were 175/150. Returning from a fairly successful Web.com campaign where he had four top ten finishes he lost in a playoff in Cape Town two weeks ago. The other players in that playoff like Roos and Van Zyl are much shorter than him and he had Otto and Fichardt behind so at the price it is a no brainer to me 0.2 ew 125/1 
Brazilian Adilson da Silva is as straight as they come and the track should suit him down to the ground as he hits a staggering 85% of fairways. Whilst he is yet to win a big event in South Africa he has won plenty of smaller ones 0.15 ew 110/1
Julien Quesne jumped off the page as well as a player who seems at his best on short tight tracks and who won on the main tour in Spain earlier this year - quite why he is 150/1 this week is beyond me 0.1 ew 150/1
Jacque Blaauw won the South African amateur at Royal Durban in 2008 but to be honest hasn't totally trained on but there must be something in the Durban air he likes as he has been 3rd twice at the nearby Durban course in the Suncoast Classic the last time just six weeks ago in similar weather conditions. He only got in via the qualifier yesterday shooting a good round and is worth a small bet 0.1 ew 250/1
Talking of the Suncoast Classic - the winner of that was a talented young player Ruan de Smidt whose accurate game will be well suited this week. He has had a good first season as a pro having won the Sunshine Tour Q school at the beginning of the year when still an amateur 0.1 ew 250/1
Last but not least one round one play on Jaco Ahlers who shot a 65 round here in IFQ for the Open in 2009 to gain entry into his first Major. He has suffered with a bit of a bad back of late but he has been 2nd and 5th after round one one in co-sanctioned events before 0.1 ew 125/1
December 4th 21.45
I'll stick with the Australian Open and Thailand Golf Championship tonight as I may not have finished with bets for the Nelson Mandela Championship. Both the aforementioned events will undoubtedly lead to the cream rising to the top but that doesn't mean that there isn't a bet to be found.
In the Australian Open we have a top heavy field and it remains to be seen how well Scott copes if he does indeed play with a shorter putter this week. I do think that there is a good crop of youngsters coming through in Australia and the person who stuck up some early prices on Betfair wasn't sure who Daniel Nisbet was and I was quite happy to snap up 200+ on the win part and 20 on the place. He has been a pro only for two months having won some top amateur events over the summer and in four pro events is a combined 49 under par. He started off by winning his Stage I PGA Q school event by twelve clear shots at twenty four under par but bombed out at Stage II only shooting one under. Back home in Australia he has finished 6th and 2nd in two events and I think he could give the big boys a run for their money 0.25 ew 70/1.
On the round one market I liked three - Higginbottom and Griffin but am put off by the afternoon tee time so will just go with Rohan Blizard who has a nice early tee time.He was 4th here after round one two years ago before finishing 9th and last year was 5th at the cut so can certainly go low at The Lakes. He has a pretty good round one record overall and I have a feeling he will go low again tomorrow 0.2 ew 100/1.
We only have one years course form at the Amata Springs course but it will probably play very differently to last year when it was hard and fast - this year it will be wet and long with thick, wet difficult rough. I have had a couple of small bets firstly on Anirban Lahiri who won the Open IFQ at Amata Springs earlier this year so will have some positive thoughts when he tees up on Thursday. He has often been a fast starter in tournaments although I am slightly reticent as he has a late tee time 0.1 ew 200/1 + 0.05 ew 150/1 Round One leader
The other two small round one plays are on two young Thai amateurs who played in the Asia Pacific Amateur just a month ago at Amata Springs both finishing tied 7th behind some top world amateurs. It is a tall order but they both have early tee times and Srithong was 5th after round one in the Thailand Open earlier this year. Natipong Srithong Round One Leader 0.05 ew 300/1, Nattawat Suvajanakorn Round One Leader 0.05 ew 300/1
November 28th 11.58
I forgot to write anything yesterday about the two small picks on the Australian tour New South Wales PGA - basically I have gone for a couple of amateurs as they seem to be doing rather well Down Under of late with both Goss and Higginbottom winning. Brett Drewitt is ranked 42nd in the world and to be honest isn't that far behind Higinbottom in terms of ability and won the NSW amateur earlier this year 0.1 ew 140/1. Callan O'Reilly is really a longshot but has been playing well in amateur events this year 0.05 ew 300/1
November 27th 18.28
In the past I used to take the approach of betting the few European tour players who ventured on to the PGA Tour Q School and it used to play dividends. As they already had somehwere to play the following season the pressure seemed off but in recent years fewer have tried and the Americans have really dominated (with the odd Aussie thrown in for good measure). This year we see a plethora of European tour players having a crack as this is the last time the Q School will provide direct access to the main tour but I am happy to oppose them. Gonzo has been from China to Japan to Dubai in recent weeks and like Cabrera-Bello, Noren and Fraser will have only arrived recently from Dubai and now have to play six rounds of golf on unfamiliar courses. I have gone for five players who permanently play on that side of the pond - four Americans and a Brazilian for good measure.
Bobby Gates finished 3rd in this last year but has struggled to keep his card this season but his best performance came when 8th at La Quinta in the Bob Hope so there must be something in the air which agrees with him! There also seems to be a bit of a link to the resort course at the Trump International in Puerto Rico and Gates was 6th there last year - 0.2 ew 100/1 (80/1 OK)
Alexandre Rocha has managed to get his tour card in each of the last two years at Q School and seems to thrive under the pressure as he has also won the European version back in 2006. He finished 131st on the money list thanks to a 2nd and a 4th placed finish on the main tour towards the end of the season so will get some starts anyway next year but is worth a bet to get his full card 0.25 ew 80/1 6 places
Derek Fathauer always promised much when 2nd here in the 2008 Q School but hasn't really fulfilled his potential. He got his Web.com tour card by finishing 30th here last season so clearly likes La Quinta and bounced back to form when 2nd in his Stage II qualifier 0.1 ew 200/1  6 places
I know I have picked Lamely a few times now he has recovered from injury but I can see him having a good week. He has been 13th and 18th in the Bob Hope at La Quinta before and won the Puerto Rico Open as George McNeill did (won this in 2006) 0.1 ew 200/1  6 places
Last man in is Ben Martin who also hasn't fulfilled his potential since being 2nd in the 2010 PGA Q School final but towards the end of the season he began to show some good form on the Web.com tour 0.15 ew 125/1 6 places
November 27th 12.30
Below is a quick summary of tips for the PGA Tour Qualifying School - will endeavour to put more meat on the nones later today - don't forget it starts tomorrow
Bobby Gates 0.2 ew 100/1 (80/1 OK)
Alexandre Rocha 0.25 ew 80/1 6 places
Derek Fathauer 0.1 ew 200/1  6 places
Derek Lamely 0.1 ew 200/1  6 places
Ben Martin 0.15 ew 125/1 6 places
November 25th 12.09
Just a quick post to say I will not be betting on this weeks Nedbank or World Challenge events as there is no value in events that have been priced up for weeks already! I will be taking a close look at the PGA tour Qualifying school which starts on Wednesday and maybe some books will put up the smaller events on the Asian, Latino and Australian tours

November 23rd 16.50
It has been quite a frustrating week as I had done all my research for the European Qualifying School which starts tomorrow morning yet not one bookmaker seemed to be prepared to price it up - or be brave enough to issue their prices. Skybet were eventually first up yesterday morning and Bet365 followed suit a few hours later and since then we have added Betfred, Sportingbet and Stan James. Now don’t get me wrong what bookmakers offer is entirely up to them but it seems madness not to offer a golf event to bet on which they will be able to trade on between rounds for six days especially when the only events being played next week have already been priced up. Anyway - rant over and onto my thoughts on who to bet on in this “lottery” where I have had some success in the past - as recently as last year we got Andy Sullivan in the frame at 100/1.
The last three stagings of this event at Catalunya have been won by men with very similar profiles.
2011 David Dixon aged 31 had won the St Omer Open in 08, had played the Q school six times and been successful four times but hadn’t played it for four years
2010 Simon Wakefield aged 36 had won on the Challenge Tour in 02 and the Sunshine Tour in 05, had played the Q school four times and had been 2nd but hadn’t played it for six years
2009 Simon Khan aged 37 had won the Wales Open in 04 had played the Q school twice and made it through both times but hadn’t played it for seven years.
Putting on my Robbie Coltrane “Cracker” hat then there is a definite profile - we are looking for an Englishman in his thirties who has won on the main or Challenge tour, who has played the Q school numerous times with some success but not recently which narrows things down nicely!!
Main bet is Richard McEvoy who is 33 and won the Panama Open back in 2004 and actually won the Q school back in 2003. He hasn’t had to visit the Q school recently as he has managed to secure his card at the last gasp - in 2011 he was 3rd at the South African Open and in 2010 an 8th place at the Dunhill links kept his playing privileges alive. This clearly shows a man who can play well under the pressure that these six days brings - in fact he has said before for some reason he plays his best golf under the cosh. He became a father for the second time just a few weeks ago and I think that may also spur him on - he needs those bigger pay cheques even more now! 0.3 ew 100/1.
The second profile selection goes to a man who has missed his last eight cuts on tour - not very promising really but Dixon was in a similar run of form last year.Kenneth Ferrie is now 34 and actually won on tour just last year in Austria beating Wakefield (see above) in a playoff, but he only got a one year exemption so has wound up in Spain this week. He hasn’t had to play the Q school since 2001 but was successful in his last two attempts and he made it through the 2007 Q school for the PGA tour. As he fit’s the bill but is in poor form we will limit the bet to 0.1 ew 150/1
Others to consider are Dougherty and Elson but for my third selection I will move away from the profiling and go for a player who has only been a pro for four months. Young American Brooks Koepka turned pro after the US Open where he qualified as an amateur but missed the cut, he was a good college player winning three times in his final six months and then turned his attention to turning pro and ended up in Europe playing the Challenge Tour. He only started playing in July but nearly got his playing card by right in a few starts especially after he won the Challenge de Catalunya in September. He seems really happy to be back in this area of Spain again and who can blame him with such great memories and the courses are pretty similar. He may surprise a few people this week and is worth a bet - 0.2 ew 80/1.

November 21st 11.31
I was going to have a big bet on Thomas Bjorn this week but for some reason he withdrew so the main bet fell to Paul Lawrie. To be honest the reasons for backing him are pretty self explanatory - he was 2nd here last year on his debut and has already won twice this season in Scotland and Qatar. There is a huge correlation between those who have played well in Qatar and those who have done well here in the three years the event has been held. Add in a pretty decent performance last week in Hong Kong and we have the makings of a decent bet 0.5 ew 40/1.
Stephen Gallacher struggles to win but there is no denying his current level of form having gone 5/6/c/4 and last weeks stats of being top for driving distance and greens in regulation should hold him in good stead for this week. He has played here once in 2010 and admittedly was quite poor but he has managed to finish 10th and 2nd in the last two Dubai Desert Classics so clearly can handle the conditions. Since regaining his tour card in the last three years he has an 11.5% top five strike rate so there is planty of value in the place part of this each way bet 0.25 ew 80/1 (70/1 OK)
My man from left field this week is Alejandro Canizares for a whole variety of reasons. His current form is probably better than it looks - in Hong Kong last week he threw the event away in the first round but closed with three really good rounds. In the Perth Invitational he was 3rd - only beaten by Bo Van Pelt and Jason Dufner. His course form isn't spectacular in the only start he has made back in 2010 when 46th but he opened with a 69 and was 5th after round one. In fact his desert form overall hasn't been great but he did go to college in Arizona so should be used to the conditions. This weeks Greg Norman course is a bit unusual but the Spaniard has had some success on another Norman design - namely the El Chameleon for the Mayakoba Classic where he was 5th earlier this year. He reminds me a bit of Quiros in that he is a talented Spaniard but you never quite know what to expect and both their original starts here were similar before Quiros went on to finish 3rd and then 1st. They also both have really good form at Seville where Quiros has won and Canizares has been 2nd and 3rd. All in all he has a lot going for him and I especially like he is more or less first out and has a good round one record - joint leader twice this year and three times second 0.2 ew 250/1, 0.2 ew Rnd 1 leader 150/1, 0.2 ew Top continental European 80/1 (1/5 4)
November 20th 21.05
Not feeling at my best today so just going to add the other bet I put up today for the DP World Tour Championship - Stephen Gallacher 0.25 ew 80/1 (70/1 OK) - very big prices on Betfair during the day and still 140.
Lastly just a few words on the two bets I put up for the BMW New Zealand Open which is a very weak field. Troy Ropiha leads the NZ PGA local order of merit having won three and been second twice in his last six events - including beating one of this weeks favourites Michael Hendry. Despite those results he still had to Monday qualify and finished second yesterday to earn his place in his national Open 0.1 ew 150/1. The player who beat him in that Monday qualifier was young trainee professional Sean Riordan who has won an awful lot of the few events he gets to play in - worth a small risk 0.05 ew 400/1
November 19th 18.11
Well last week we got Fraser in the frame 3rd @ 55/1 and a small return from our 300/1 round one leader pick in Australia who sadly bogeyed the last to tie for 5th. I have gone for two players so far in the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai and may well add one more
Paul Lawrie 0.5 ew 40/1
Alejandro Canizares - 0.2 ew 250/1, 0.2 ew Rrd 1 leader 150/1, 0.2 ew Top continental European 80/1 (1/5 4)
November 14th 12.26
Sadly not many books could be bothered to give us a round one leader market for the Australian Masters so we will have to go with what we have! I have gone for two players who have won amateur events round Kingston Heath and may get off to a quick start as they both have early tee times. In all honesty Nathan Holman isn't that far behind Oliver Goss in terms of ability but there is a huge difference in price. He won the Victorian/Port Phillip amateur at the back end of last year and has fared well early doors in a few events including lying 9th and 4th in the last two Victorian Opens. He closed with a fine 66/69 a couple of weeks ago in Western Australia and is worth 0.15 ew 125/1 (100/1 OK). Kalem Richardson has already turned pro and to be fair has struggled a bit but did lead the Maekyung Open on the OneAsia tour back in May and a return to familiar surroundings could see him put in a low round 0.05 300/1 (200/1 OK)
November 13th 15.16
We have two European events this week - I have already outlined picks for the Hong Kong Open below but we also have the South African Open but lets remember this is the last ditch attempt by many to retain their card. Again this event is top heavy but those that head the market are readily opposable - Schwartzel hasn't won since the Masters last year in forty three attempts, Kaymer hasn't won this year, Stenson has won once in his last one hundred and forty starts and that was over three and a half years ago! As for Coetzee - well he has only ever won one half decent Sunshine tour event and a couple of tiddlers yet is quoted at 12/1. In my mind the favourite really should be Grace but maybe the long season has taken its toll. The problem has been finding anyone at a decent price to take them on - of the home contingent Fisher, Fichardt and Horne are all worthy of consideration and I got some good prices on Betfair but the bookmaker odds hold no great appeal - so I am left with my two longshots from left field - who need to do a bit of a Beljan - preferably without the health problems!
Sam Little has done what most three time winners on the Challenge Tour have done - struggled on the main tour and he has indeed endured a tough season but there have been plenty of signs of improvement over the last couple of months. he was 23rd in Switzerland, 13th in Italy and 19th at the Perth Invitational, 3rd Stage 2 Q school and each time at least one aspect of his game was on top form - he just needs to put it all together. His first win last year came at another Jack Nicklaus course Tseleevo in Russia and when he played Serengeti last year he was 35th - let down by opening and closing rounds he did shoot 67/69 in between so can clearly play the course. In a weak field with question marks over some of the favourites he is worthy of a look 0.2 ew 175/1 (150/1 OK)
Thomas Norret needs one hell of a good week - a top four will get him into the final stage of Q school whilst only a win will probably save his card - basically he has nothing to lose! He has been talking up his game for some time now on his blog but it just isn't clicking on the course. His best performances last season were 4th in Austria and a 13th here so if he were to take his practice game on to the course it might be when he really needs it most - a small investment of 0.1 ew 250/1
November 13th 11.16
I will admit I wasn't going to have a bet in the Dunlop Phoenix but one player caught my eye after I had spotted he wasn't playing the Australian Masters at Kingston Heath (where he has had some success in IFQ for the Open) instead Kurt Barnes has decided to tee it up in Japan. He has played regularly on that tour for the last three years and in forty three starts has a win, second and four fourth place finishes to his name so is obviously comfortable playing in Japan. In September he nearly defended his ANA Open title but then went off the boil but in his last two events there has been a return to form. Whilst we do have some top players turning up this week he is a proven winner and actually has seven pro wins including the SK Telecoms Open last year ahead of KJ Choi and HT Kim. At 125/1 or even 100/1 he is worth 0.2 ew
I will do a quick bit on Aaron Townsend for the Talisker Australian Masters although I will have to Tweet my two other bets a bit later when I have got on. Like Barnes Townsend will have fond memories of Kingston Heath having won the IFQ around the sandbelt course earlier this year. He is in pretty good form having gone 6/5/3 in various events and then top twenty at the Perth International. This field really does lack strength in depth and whilst he probably can't trouble the market leaders there is plenty of value left in the place part of this each way bet 0.3 ew 60/1
November 12th 22.21
A bit of a nightmare day yesterday with Wood kicking off in 2nd and Villegas tied 5th and neither of them could trouble the judge - moving rapidly onto this week we have the Hong Kong Open, South Africa Open and Australian Masters - tonight I will just write about the first of these where I have two selections.
With such a short priced favourite in Rory it means that there is potentially some good each way value down the field and I have found two that fit the bill. Marcus Fraser has excellent course form with finishes of 7/34/10/11 and his last win came in Asia back in 2010 and he nearly added to that tally again in South Korea back in April. He has been incredibly consistent this season also finishing runner-up in Switzerland and Germany, 4th in India and 6th in the China Open so getting around 13/1 for a place is really appealing - 0.3 ew 55/1 (50/1 OK)
I have backed Raphael Jacquelin a few times this season so far without success but I think he warrants close attention this week. Like Fraser he has some solid course form - 5th on his last visit in 2009 and 13th on his debut in 2006. He also has a good Asian record winning in China in 2007 and boasting a 15% top five strike rate on the continent. In his last two events on European soil he was 5th in the Dunhill Links and 6th Portugal Masters and didn't play too badly last week after a month off. Expect him to be fit and ready to battle for his fourth tour title 0.4 ew 66/1
November 7th 20.52
This is always a sad week of the year to be honest with the last event on the PGA tour and knowing it will be two months until the next one! It would be good to bow out with a winner so I have gone for four against the field
I pencilled in Justin Leonard for this around a month ago not just because he has been 2nd twice here in the last three years but also because his putting has improved vastly from the British Open up until the Frys.com. It has been a while since he last won and his putting will be put under pressure but with his course form and improved putting of late he has to be worth a chance 0.3 ew 80/1
From one dodgy putter to another - Camilo Villegas and it has to be said it has not been a good year for the Columbian as he has been striking the ball poorly as well as putting badly. He has however started to show signs of striking the ball well this Fall with finishes of 30/29/20 and as he has shown much of his best form in his adopted Florida in the past then this could be a good week to get him onside 0.25 ew 80/1
I am not afraid of putting George McNeill up again at a three figure price because he relishes playing on resort courses. He has been 2nd three times in his home state of Florida including here in 2009. Apart from his win in Puerto Rico he hasn't exactly set the world on fire this season but he won't be playing this week for his playing rights so with less pressure than a lot he could easily surprise 0.25 ew 125/1
Last man up is big hitter Jason Kokrak who certainly knows how to get over the finishing line having won four times on the Egolf tour and then twice last year on the Web.com tour including in Florida. He has had a poor first year on tour but turned that all around in the Frys.com when tied second, with his card secured I wouldn't be surprised to see him go all out for the win 0.3 ew 100/1
November 7th 12.01
I guess I'd better get on with my thoughts on Singapore as it starts in under twelve hours!
After last weeks success with Poulter I did have a closer look at the top of the market again this week but nothing stood out at the prices - in fact one player stood out as being particularly poor - Mickelson is only playing here because of his sponsors and always looks baffled on the greens.
Chris Wood was the first player who struck me as being a touch of value. he finally got the monkey off his back when winning his first event as a pro back in August on a visit to Thailand in Asia. He struggled a bit after that with a few niggly injuries but his 15th at the Dunhill Links was a good performance as he has never played the event well. The only thing that let him down that week was his putter which is quite common for the tall man but he didn't putt too badly on his only appearance at Sentosa in 2010 when 10th. He already has a 2nd and 3rd place finish this season, he warmed up by playing in Dubai last week and is probably fresher than a lot of players 0.3 ew 80/1.
Big hitting Aussie Scott Hend seems to love Singapore - not only has he finished 3rd here but he has also been 4th in the Singapore Classic and then won that event in April. He is in good form having finished 5th and 6th last month and finished with rounds of 67/68 in the HSBC last week. he is more than capable of playing in this quality of field and the early prices were way too big 0.2 ew 200/1 (250/50 Unibet)
Shiv Kapur has also been in good form in the Far East with his last three finishes reading 4/5/4. He has been 8th and 5th here in the past and also got through IFQ at Sentosa and this year is worth a bet as he is acclimatised better than in recent years when returning from Europe 0.2 ew 200/40 Unibet - proofed @ 125/1
Lastly a couple of round one leader bets - Jbe Kruger is one of those players who tends to start well and finish poorly. He has a good recird in Singapore and opened last year with a 65 to lie tied 5th - what was interesting about that was he played the tougher Serapong course first last year and led the half of that field that started there. He was 4th after round one of the Portugal Masters and possibly should have led after round one at the CIMB until double bogeying the last (sorry Ben Coley for bringing that one up!). Last week he started appallingly but progressed well through the week but @ 100/1 he is still worth a small 0.1 ew. I can see local player Chih Bing Lam going well for a round or two - he was right up there back in 08 and has twice got through IFQ playing Sentosa 0.05 ew 250/1.
I have had small dabbles on a few others Liang 130 Karlberg 300 and Zhi Qun Lam for round one @ 500/1
November 6th 13.02
Sorry for lack of posts the last few days - busy going through this weeks two events which include the last on the PGA tour this year, it was nice to bag a winner last week with Poulter but there will be no foray to the shorter priced players this week! Bets so far are as follows - probably got one more for Singapore
Barclays Singapore Open
Chris Wood 0.3 ew 80/1
Scott Hend 0.2 ew 200/1 (250/50 Unibet)
Chi Bin Lam 0.05 ew Rd 1 leader 250/1 
 Jbe Kruger 0.1 ew Rd 1 leader 100/1 
Childrens Miracle Network
Jason Kokrak 0.3 ew 100/1 (80/1 OK)
George McNeill 0.25 ew 125/1
Justin Leonard 0.3 ew 80/1
Camilo Villegas 0.25 ew 80/1
October 29th 21.11
No return last week with Ed Loar getting closest to troubling the judge with the 100/1 shot finishing a never nearer 8th. This week we just have the WGC HSBC Champions event and I have three outright picks and one round one leader bet.
Francesco Molinari was the first name to be written down this week as he will have fond memories of the Mission Hills Olazabal course as it was the scene of his World Cup victory alongisde his brother in 2009. He even won this event a couple of years ago but his victories are sadly few and far between as he just throws in too many poor rounds. Last week for instance he was joint leader after round one but then played poorly on Friday and Saturday. He did win the Spanish Open back in May interestingly on another Olazabal designed course in Seville and had a couple of runner up slots in July. I was tempted in with a small bet 0.2 ew 45/1 and wouldn't really suggest taking less than 40/1.
Ian Poulter is not a player I would normally back as he is just too short most of the time but this is his time of the year and he is determined to add another victory before the year's out. He is definitely in form with a 4th place last week and has finished 4/6/4 in the World Cups here for England in 07/08/09. The simple rows of figures below summarise his results at this time of year outline this point and I have had a win only bet 0.25 @ 24/1 Unibet - again I wouldn't take less than 22/1
Sep-Dec 83 starts 9.6% wins 24.1% top 5
Oct-Dec 53 starts 13.2% wins 28.3% top 5
Nov-Dec 30 starts 16.7% wins 30.1% top 5
Nov only 26 starts 15.4% wins 26.9% top 5
Before getting on to what maybe the most interesting bet just a quick line about Hiroyuki Fujita who has three wins on the Japanese tour this year. I don't think he will be able to trouble the judge come Sunday but he won in China in 2008 and was 5th here playing for Japan in 2009 so should have fond memories of the course so will have a small 0.1 ew round one leader play @ 125/1.
Last position on this weeks team goes to old favourite Mark Wilson who has been off the radar since the beginning of the year - in fact since he was 3rd at the WGC matchplay back in February he hasn't played well - maybe because he was annoyed for not winniing as he could have done! However I noticed in the McGladrey Classic he was 10th and more interestingly 2nd for GIR - and that is the part of his game which needs to be on song and has been missing. Judging on who has played well here in
the World Cup events suggest that distance is not key but rather accuracy and GIR - the Molinari bros certainly fit that category and Slocum and Weekley who should have won in 2007 definitely do. It is safe to say Wilson has a similar game to those two fellow Americans - but we don't know how he will react to playing in this neck of the woods. Last year he played in the Asia Pacific event in Malaysia (played last week) and finished a creditable 4th before playing poorly in the HSBC event in China. What swayed it for me is that he can certainly play on the Paspalum fairways (same as Mayakoba where he won) or the unusual Tifeagle greens (same as PGA National where he won) I think he is worth the risk at the price as a five time winner on the PGA tour - he is priced up with a lot of no hopers - 0.2 ew 200/1 Spreadex  also 200/35 Unibet 150/1

October 24th 12.27
It's been a pretty poor return from the Web.com tour this year although profitable it hasn't been as good as past years with the only returns being Swafford winning at 66/1 and Lee being 2nd at 50/1 from around forty five selections - so we have one last chance this week with the season ending Tour Championship.
Two Dallas natives were first on my list who have both won on tour this season. Edward Loar finally achieved his goal of making the PGA tour last season but after the long wait he hasn't made the most of his chances. He dropped back down in grade as far back as March when he won in Panama but he has shot some good rounds of golf lately - he just needs to put four together. He is a good player who has played all over the world - some might remember him finishing 2nd at the Dunhill Links a few years back so he definitely has the game. I think he will perform well at home this week on a course he knows very well having played it at the Q school stage 2 fro many years - indeed the last two years he has been 10th and 4th. When 4th last year he actually didn't stay at home but used a local hotel as his wife had just had triplets - he assures me via Twitter he will be doing the same this week to be well rested! 0.25 ew 90/1 (5 places Bet365) 80/1 OK
Paul Haley is the other local I like who came out all guns blazing having just turned pro and finished 1st in Chile and added a couple of runner up spots to secure his card by June. Things have tailed off slightly since then but a return to familiar surroundings (he was 2nd at the Q school here a year ago) could well rekindle his game 0.25 ew 90/1 (5 places B365) or 100/1 (4 places Paddy Power)
Last but not least is Peter Tomasulo although I was hoping for a bigger price and hence the smaller bet. He returned from injury in June and won on his second start back but hasn't dome much since but he caught my eye on the PGA tour last week when 11th heading into Sunday only to fall away. He has some good course form having been 2nd in the 2007 Q school and in 2008 when the Tour Championship was played here before he finished 5th 0.2 ew 50/1 (5 places) 45/1 5 places or 50/1 4 places OK
October 22nd 20.57
I may as well go up early with thoughts on this weeks main two events as I have only had one bet in each and then tomorrow will go through the Web.com Tour Championship.
When I first saw the prices on Betfair for the BMW Masters I had hoped the bookmakers would follow suit where YE Yang was concerned having jumped on at 100/110/120 I wanted to see maybe 80/1 e/w - however with a top priced 50/1 and some at 33/1 I just have to pass. He is in good form finishing 2nd and 3rd in his last two events in China and Korea this month and of course he has two wins in China in the past - maybe worth a look at in running I guess as he knows how to get the job done and can even outplay the big guns. Obviously we need to find a player who can go head to head with the big players and come out on top and an on-song Michael Campbell is capable of doing that but he really hasn't been on song for some time. A few months ago he swapped back to an old coach who trained him when he won the US Open and the results are beginning to show highlighted by a 3rd in the Portugal Masters last time out. He has played in mainland China ten times and has five top five finishes - admittedly when playing good golf so he is comfortable in the region. The million dollar question is - is he back? Last time out he was 4th in the all round stats and warmed up in China in a posh pro-am last week and I am prepared to take a small risk 0.25 ew 150/1.
In the CIMB Classic I jumped in early on another Korean - Noh @ 50 but unsurprisingly the bookmakers haven't played ball and at 25/1 he really can't be a pick so I have just one for this reduced field based purely on price and putting - Greg Chalmers. Last week at home in Australia he was around 14/1 and double the price of Van Pelt and Dufner - he finished tied 10th yet this week is five or six times the price of those two which makes little sense. Last week he had no great course advantage over the two Americans so it just doesn't make sense to me. He is capable of beating players like Woods as he did last year in Australia. He will need to hole lots of putts this week and that really is his forte as in the last three months he tops the putting stats on the PGA tour. He has played in Asia before admittedly not for a while but in his last visit to the "region" in 2008 he was 2nd in India so he is able to transfer his putting stroke to grainy greens - definitely worth a bet @ 50/1 - 0.3 ew
October 21st 11.05
Well what can I say about the golf so far this week - annoying I think is the answer! I haven't given up on Thompson just yet - quite often his best finishes have come from well off the pace such as the US Open but he really will have to improve his short range putting. Hopefully a few read my Tweet on Thursday about DJ Trahan who was going well and was still 300 on Betfair - he really is a great Fall finisher and won at Harbour Town before and won at Annandale where Heath Slocum had also won. He was born in Georgia and lives in South Carolina - don't write him off. In the Jacksonville Open every day Lebrun has got to near the lead with a few holes to play only to drop shots like confetti which doesn't bode well if he gets close today!!
Next week we have a lot of limited field events with the BMW Masters from China,CMB Classic and the season ending events on both the Web.com and European Challenge tours - I have a feeling betting opportunities maybe few and far between.
October 17th 16.02
There is only one official bet on the smaller tours, I have bet a couple of players on the Asian tour for the Indian Open but there is little point in putting them up as no-one will get on - bit disappointed as I thought a few more might price up.
The one bet on the Web.com tour in the Jacksonville Open is Steve Lebrun who is having his best season to date as a pro. He has made a considerable sum of money playing the mini tours in Florida where he lives with loads of wins and has just started to transfer that form to the Web.com tour this year with three 9th placed finishes and then last week he was 4th. I nearly backed him last week as he was playing in Florida and he was 4th but weirdly he is actually a bigger price this week - due to the fact he he has no course form. He says the best course he has ever played is Sawgrass and although it is a bit of a guess but he must have played this course at the Sawgrass complex 0.2 ew 100/1. I was going to go big on Jeff Klauk this week but at 50/1 there is just no value as we were on at 100/1 last time
October 17th 15.19
There are loads of players with various connections to Sea Island - either playing college golf there or living there etc but there was one player I have been waiting to back since June when he made me a considerable sum of money and nearly a small fortune - step forward Michael Thompson. When I was on him for the US Open it was because he loved the Olympic course having finished runner up in the US amateur. Sea Island has similar memories plus he has already been 3rd here last season - driving it in the hazard at the 72nd hole last year cost him a place in the playoff. He was 4th on this course in the SEC Championships in 2007 and has been 1st and 3rd at the Frederica course next door which is very similar and he puts it all down to the fact that the course suits his low ball flight. When the prices came out on Monday I jumped on the 66/1 and 60/1 (even a bit of 80 on Betfair) and sure enough his price has collapsed - proofed at 1 point ew 50/1.
I will stick with Every again this week - he seemed a bit rusty last week after a break. He has shown some of his best form on this type of short coastal exposed track - 8th Harbour Town, 3rd Mayakoba and 6th in the Sony Open this year and three years ago won the Web.com Tour Championship at Daniel Island. He has also played the course in his college days finishing a respectable tied 5th in the 2006 SEC Championship so it won't be totally new to him 0.2 ew 100/1
Last man in for me is a bit left field in the shape of Kevin Kisner who sat alongside Every back in 2006. When he turned pro he lived on Sea Island for the first two years so will know the course very well and finished a respectable 26th last year. Most of his best from is saved for the East coast so the last two missed cuts won't put me off and he tweeted me his game is coming into shape nicely. I have put him in at 0.2 ew 175/1 + 0.2 top 10 14/1 but he is still 200/1 @ Spreadex 
October 17th 13.59
Most events on Australian soil tend to go to the favourites as they really do stand head and shoulders above the local players and when we throw in some European players who will be somewhat jaded then we have an event which is very difficult to guage. I have therefore bet three local players who will be out early in the day before the inevitable wind gets up and I have only backed them in the round one leader market.
Rohan Blizard knows the course fairly well although he has yet to play a pro event there but he has often got off to good starts - in the last two Western Australian Opens he has been 1st and 2nd after the opening day.0.1 ew 125/1
Matt Jager is first man off and cannot wait to get started on the course he won both the strokeplay and matchplay sections of the Australian Amateur in 2010. He has been playing on the Canadian tour this year and to be honest bar a 5th placed finish he has been bloody awful! However this time last year he led the Western Australian Open by two shots with a round to go at the Royal Fremantle course. With such fond memories I can easily see him going out fast early on 0.1 ew 150/1
Kim Felton won the Australian Amateur somewhat longer ago - 1997 in fact but he is also looking forward to getting back to Lake Karrinyup close to his home in Perth. He has suffered from back injuries and a loss of confidence in recent years but says he is feeling fit and is raring to go. He was a standing dish in Western Australia a few years back winning the PGA in 02,03 and 04 and the Open in 01,03 and 06 so really should feel comfortable and at home 0.1 ew 150/1
I have backed these three in a few other side markets such as top Australian but I just can't see them holding on to beat the favourites at the end of the day
October 16th 16.38
A quick summary of bets placed so far
McGladrey Classic
Michael Thompson 1 pt ew - will proof @ 50/1
Matt Every 0.2 ew 100/1
Kevin Kisner 0.2 ew 175/1 + 0.2 top 10 14/1 (300/60 Unibet or 200/1 ew @ Spreadex
IPS Perth International
Rohan Blizard Rd 1 leader 0.1 ew 125/1
Matt Jager Rd 1 leader 0.1 ew 150/1
Kim Felton Rd 1 leader 0.1 ew 150/1
October 15th 12.40
Things have been pretty quiet here on the blog - mainly because I haven't got a lot to say apart from moaning at some lack lustre displays from golfers I have picked! and that achieves nothing. I was confident of Slattery last week but an awful spell in round three put paid to that bet whilst the largest bet on the PGA tour Rollins got himself into contention after a good Saturday but yesterday putted really poorly - I think I counted five missed putts on the front nine from inside ten feet.
Onto this week and we have the ISPS Handa Perth International where surely some of the Europeans will struggle due to jet lag and lack of preparation. Even Oliver Wilson who should have got there fairly early missed his plane as he misread his itinerary ( I am sure there is a joke somewhere in there about his putting!) The PGA tour moves to the McGladrey Classic in Georgia whilst we might get a few more books price up the Asian tour this week as Peter Hanson is playing the Indian Open.
Back later on Twitter as ever!
October 10th 20.47
Sorry for the delay with thoughts on this weeks Frys.com from CordeValle but here goes.
I had a long list of players to back this week and in the end at the prices only backed one of them - Rcihard H Lee - all the others fell by the wayside despite me backing a lot of them at big prices on Betfair but at the bookmakers odds there was no value in them. I guess Brendan Steele was the biggest casualty - he was going to be my headline tip but was only one third of the price we backed him at last week but is he three times as likely to win this week - I think not!
John Rollins really caught my eye at the price as we know he can win - he has three PGA wins and whilst he has been out of form of late he does have some top finishes this season, was 6th here last year (when in similar form) and overall has a great record in California. I really don't get why he should be so much bigger than a lot of players who have worse course form or have never won! 0.4 ew 80/1
Richard H Lee has been a very popular pick this week and it comes as no great surprise with his current level of form - one added bit of information that made him a pick for me is that also had a good runout here in 2008 in a top Collegiate event so for a change he has some prior knowledge of a course 0.25 ew 80/1
Jason Bohn is a bit of a hit and miss player and I usually miss badly when I pick him but at 100/1 felt he was worth a small bet as this is the sort of poor field where both of his wins have come before. He was 2nd a few months ago and it was only 2010 when he last won and he came back to form after a break when 8th last week which more or less secured his 2013 card. 0.2 ew 100/1
Matt Every is last man up and he secured his playing rights for next year a long time ago as he already has a 2nd,3rd,6th,6th and 8th placed finishes this season. After a quiet spell I can easily see him bouncing back to form as he has been good in the Fall on the Web.com tour winning the 2009 Tour Championship and last year finishing 4th and 3rd on that tour. 0.2 ew 100/1
October 10th 12.01
I think the books have severely underestimated the chances of Lee Slattery this week in the Portugal Masters mainly due to some pretty poor course form which reads 56/mc/mc/mc. However if you look at his Alfred Dunhill Links form you will find that reads mc/mc/mc/65/70 and then suddenly a vast improvement to 5th last week. His 14th in Crans also reads well when you consider his abysmal form there in the past. So we have a player who is clearly in great form who admits that since his win last year in Madrid he is finally beginning to fulfill his potential and admits to being a late developer 0.3 ew 100/1
Mikko Ilonen on the other hand has some good course form finishing 9th and 19th in his two appearances to date. He missed a great deal of last year due to injury but has a 3rd and a 10th to his name already this season. He was apparently unwell at the beginning of last week and it showed in his first round performance when he took thirty seven putts in an even par round at St Andrews. That put him out of the reckoning but he played well the next three days to climb to 22nd. He is a talented player and it is about time he added to his two European tour wins 0.2 ew 125/1 + 0.4 top 10 11/1
It looks like everyone and his dog wants to be on the rather enigmatic Pablo Martin this week due to his great form in Portugal. It didn't escape many people that he finally made a cut last week but he was still far too streaky to me to make him an outright bet. In round one he went out in thirty blows at St Andrews and on the Friday reeled off five consecutive birdies at Carnoustie but he kept throwing in some really bad shots. Hence I have made him a round one only bet to start with - 0.1 ew 200/1
Just a quick word on Caroline Hedwall in the LPGA Malaysian event this week - I admit I wasn't going to have a bet and thought she might struggle a bit in the heat this week but then noticed she has actually won in India so it might not inconvenience her. She already has five wins on the LET and maybe she can get her first win on the LPGA tour when a lot of the Americans are out of their comfort zone 0.2 ew 80/1
October 9th 12.31
It has been a bit of a tricky start to the week - first of all prices were really late coming out yesterday - apparently books have been hit hard by losses on the Ryder Cup and last week won't have helped either. When they did materialise they were rather a shock to me with all the players I had pencilled in being pretty much shocking prices so it was back to the drawing board. If i said I got 70 Luke Guthrie, 200 Richard Lee, 200 John Peterson on Betfair then you will understand what I mean. Anyway below is a list of bets struck so far - I will go into detail later but the main emphasis is on the prices in my opinion being wrong.
Portugal Masters
Lee Slattery 0.3 ew 100/1
Mikko Ilonen 0.2 ew 125/1 + 0.4 top 10 11/1
Pablo Martin round one leader 0.1 ew 200/1
Frys.com
John Rollins 0.4 ew 80/1 
Richard H Lee 0.25 ew 80/1
Jason Bohn 0.2 ew 100/1
Matt Every 0.2 ew 100/1
October 8th 10.00
Last week Danny Willett was our best finisher managing a tie for fifth with about twenty other players! - shows how much just one shot can effect your returns in this game. This week we have a pretty full schedule with the Portugal Masters and Frys.com headlining - one things for sure I won't be bothering with the mega money Turkish thing! Back later with bets - check on Twitter @ SBIdotcom for updates
October 3rd 20.22
Having looked at all the other tours this week the only bet I have come up with is in the Web.com tour - the Neediest Kids Championship from a revamped Avenel course. When I saw the price of this player I nearly slid off my chair and have really had to temper the bet somewhat. It really is an amazing story surrounding Jeff Klauk who has been out of the game for some time having had brain surgery and find the right medication to cure his epilepsy. He returned last month to play on the Web.com tour where he has five rehab starts and whilst he missed the first cut last week he finished a very promising 14th. I think he will be happy to be in Maryland this week as it was the scene of one of his two victories back in 2008 and he really is a PGA main tour standard player. Thanks to Josh Broadaway who tweeted me the course is long and wet so I have left it at just one bet. He has kindly passed on some good wishes to Jeff and the message that I will donate some winnings to an epilepsy charity should he prevail and I hope some of you would do likewise! 0.4 ew 100/1
October 2nd 21.36
When I backed George McNeill earlier this year at 55/1 in Puerto Rico the general idea was that it was a weak event on a resort course where he has been 5th the year before. This week we have him playing a resort course where has been 1st and 2nd and yet he is 80/1 despite it still being a fairly weak event. He is in poor form but that was the case earlier this year before winning and is the only reason I have not had a much bigger bet on him 0.25 ew 90/1
Brendan Steele is a player who I think is severly underestimated this week as I think he is a better player on this side of the States. He seems to play the same events well each year as witnessed by finishing 4th whilst defending his Texas Open title and has been 7th the last two years at Le Golf National. He has been 5th and 8th in the two desert events he has played this year at Montreux and Scottsdale so should be at home on the course where he actually opened 66/65 last year on his way to finishing 16th. I suppose the only downside is the fact that he seems at his best on tougher courses but I am happy to take the risk 0.4 ew 150/1.
A lot of people will be looking at tour "virgins" this week as the event throws up so many first time winners but in a way you could put this down to the fact that it is a weak event played by lots of non winners - hence I have gone for the two past winners above but I will throw one non winner into the mix in the shape of Willie McGirt. He is beginning to show off his great potential in his second season on tour with a 2nd, 3rd and 10th. His best finish last year came here being joint leader after round one and went on to finish 16th - 0.2 ew 80/1
Left field pick for the week goes to Derek Lamely who like McNeill has also won on the resort course in Puerto Rico but since then he has been injured constantly and has needed breaks from playing. He has still managed a few good early rounds including when 5th after round one here and first at the Childrens Miracle last October and he also led the Bob Hope last year - all on resort courses. He returned the other week in a warm up on the Web.com tour when he played solidly to finish 23rd with a red hot putter. Don't be surprised if he shows up on a leaderboard soon 0.1 ew 300/1 + 0.1 ew Rd 1 leader 200/1.
October 2nd 20.27
The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is one of those events that I am still not sure I enjoy - the final day is fine but before that it all seems a bit disjointed, lengthy and full of people you don't really want to watch swing a club. Still - it has been pretty good to me in the past and I have bet three players to hopefully make it worthwhile watching!
Tom Gillis was the first player I backed on Betfair on Sunday night at 500/1 and was more than happy when the books opened at 200/1. He is a bit like Mulroy the other week - playing a different tour but if he can reproduce his PGA form on links courses then his price will seem very big indeed. He is ranked 5th on the Tour Tips current form stats for this week which is no surprise as he has been a model of consistency this season and regularly appears in the top ten across the pond - even finishing 8th and 3rd at the multi course Pebble Beach pro-am in 2010/11. 0.2 ew 200/1
Danny Willett is a player who I think will win plenty of times in his career and nearly added to his BMW win just a month ago when 2nd in Switzerland. He has a great record in the multi course Joburg Open and was also second here just two years ago. Whilst he was only 27th last year he was really out of form at the time 0.4 ew 55/1
I just can't leave out Michael Hoey this week as he seeks to defend his title and strangely he has never had chance to defend a title before. He lost me a lot of money earlier this year when clearly out of sorts but seems to be finding his game once again and 80/1 is more than fair about a player who knows how to win. I took 80/1 for 0.25 ew 6 places but you can still get 100/1 Spreadex.
I have backed a few at big prices on Betfair but am not convinced by the bookmaker prices - Ramsay 60, Warren 95/100 and even young Aussie Matt Griffin 1000
October 1st 13.00
Well that was an interesting evening for golf viewers! I am glad I didn't get involved from a betting point of view it was entertaining just to watch and apparently a lot of bookmakers got rather hammered - prices might be slow today as they nurse their hangovers! My shit or bust attitude on the Web.com tour turned out pretty shit with only Renner playing OK and he managed to get himself disqualified! Back to normality this week with a whole host of events headlined by the Alfred Dunhill Links from St Andrews and the Justin Timberlake Shr.......from Summerlin Nevada.
September 26th 21.17
I have taken what could prove to be a rather risky approach to this weeks Web.com Chiquita Classic - call it what you like - shit or bust or all eggs in one basket! There is no course form to go on - all we have is a typical Jack Nicklaus signature course so I have gone for four players who seem to thrive on other Jacks' courses.
Matt Bettencourt has one PGA win at Montreux and on the PGA tour this season the only good tournaments he has played have been 6th Harbour Town, 3rd at the cut at Annandale and 6th at the cut at Montreux. I find it hard to belive that those finishes are a coincidence and he also has the benefit of playing on his preferred Bentgrass greens this week 0.3 ew 110/1
Brett Wetterich is probably wishing he was playing ont he Ryder Cup team again this week but after a few major injuries he has struggled over the last five years. I backed him last week to small stakes at 200/1 when he was 4th as I could see he was finding a bit of form. Some of his best finishes have come on Nicklaus courses over the years and I can see him adding to last years win on this tour 0.25 ew 90/1
Jim Renner is a bit more left field - he played the main tour last season and lost his card but he did have two top five finishes at Montreux and Annandale. Sadly he lost his dad last month but we have often seen that inspire golfers and his last top five finish on this tour came in the state of North Carolina where we are this week 0.2 ew 175/1.
Taking the Nicklaus theme even further I cannot leave out Will Mackenzie as both his tour wins came on Nicklaus courses at Annandale and Montreux. He hasn't been playing that well this season but both his wins came from out of the blue 0.2 ew 150/1
September 26th 20.23
This week has been quite tricky with two new courses in use on the Challenge tour and Web.com. First of all a quick look at the Challenge de Catalunya.
The course seems like a typical tricky old fashioned coastal Spanish course susceptible to the wind so first on my list was Phillip Archer. I don't think the books have cut him enough since last weeks 7th place finish in France. His win last year in France came on a windswept short course and these seem to bring out the best in the Englishman. His best ever finishes on the main tour came in Spain when 2nd and 3rd in the Spanish and Andalucian Opens so he should feel comfortable 0.3 ew 80/1.
I wanted to get a Spaniard on board as they so often play well at this level at home and whilst I respect the chances of De La Riva and Velasco I have gone for one of the new young guns Pedro Oriol. He very nearly won on his pro debut in the Canaries in 2009 and has played Tecina course well again since which is a coastal, tricky short course. He struggled on the main tour last year and only seems to be coming to hand again - expect him to play well at home in Catalunya 0.2 ew 80/1
September 26th 11.38
A quick summary of bets below - I still have two more to come for the Web.com. I gave Darren Beck a good mention in the Taiwan Masters on Twitter - he has changed caddie and started yoga to keep calm and it is showing in his results since the summer break - I got a few quid on at 66/80 but 55 is still fair. I also mentioned Guepy in the South pacific Open - was coach here and held the course record and won the event twice - didn't realise it started yesterday and he is 2nd!
Challenge de Catalunya
Philip Archer 0.3 ew 80/1
Pedro Oriol 0.2 ew 80/1
Chiquita Classic
Brett Wetterich 0.25 ew 90/1 (80/1 OK)
Matt Bettencourt 0.3 ew 110/1 (100/1 OK)
September 24th 09.28
It has been a frustrating week really although profitable! After Mulroy finishing 2nd at 200/1 last week we added yesterday Pepperell 3rd 55/1 and Danny lee t2nd 50/1. The young English player made a mess of two holes on the front nine yesterday resulting in double bogeys and effectively ending his challenge whilst 150/1 pick Archer fell a shot shy of the places in t7th. Danny Lee resorted to his day one playing yesterday and the pressure of defending showed through. This week we have the Ryder Cup and whilst most tipsters will be finding bets I will sit it out as most of the markets to me are just a lottery. So we are left this week Chiquita Classic and Challenge de Catalunya (both from new venues) and maybe a few will price up the Taiwan Masters.
September 19th 21.35
Last but not least we have the WNB Classic on the Web.com tour from Texas and I have backed Darron Stiles again having backed him at 40/1 last year. In 2011 he managed a 10th place finish having gone 4/3/5 before so he clearly loves Midland golf course. I have to go again despite two missed cuts because before that he won for the second time at Fox Den 0.4 ew 35/1.
Talking of course form I have gone for Danny Lee to defend - most of the time players don't get to defend on this tour as they have usually moved on to the bigger tour but Lee has struggled on that stage and is back on the lower tour. His best result on the main tour came in his now adopted state of Texas and he has improved on each start back on this tour where he has a 23.8% top 5 strike rate and 42.9% top 10 rate 0.4 ew 50/1
Final bet of the week goes to James Hahn who I think is slightly overpriced this week as in eighteen starts he has a 1st, 2nd and 4th on tour this season 0.3 ew 50/1
September 19th 20.50
Just the one bet on the LPGA tour in Alabama this week in the shape of the big hitting Brittany Lincicome. I noted earlier this year when I backed Lexi Thompson in the other Alabama event that they are both played on Robert Trent Jones trails courses - sadly although Lexi won this event last year I was on earlier this year when she was 2nd at 50/1 - 14/1 holds no appeal! Lincicome has yet to win this season but won twice last year and has a 2nd and a 4th this season. She has been 2nd and 18th here the last two years and has also been 2nd and 4th at the other Alabama event so is clearly at home on the courses 0.3 ew 33/1
September 19th 18.48
With three books pricing up the Challenge Tour event this week and no European tour event or indeed a PGA event I wanted to get involved with I found three bets on the Challenge Tour. When looking at the past winnres of the event it became clear that it made sense to look at players who had already won on the tour that season and had some good form in France
2011 - Walker had won the week before
2010 - Wiesberger had already won in France that year
2009 - Parry had been 3rd in France (went on to win on the main tour in France)
2008 - Ramsay - had won that season and should have won the French Open 2011
2007 - Luiten - had won that season - same event as Ramsay in Germany
There are actually only ten Challenge Tour winners from this season teeing off this week so that made it even easier to narrow down - I have gone for three -
Sam Walker won the Scottish Open for the second time this year, in 2010 he won in France and was also 9th here - in fact he has some really solid course form. He hasn't been playing much on the Challenge tour as he has a low ranked card on the main tour - hence he didn't travel to Russia and Kazakhstan but played in Holland and Italy finishing 46th and 17th - that is good form as he had never made the cut at those venues before. I really think he is being underestimated 0.4 ew 66/1 (take anything down to 45/1)
Eddie Pepperell is a promising young player who won the same event as Walker earlier this season. He played really well a year ago to finish 14th here - his highest finish to date at that time. He says on Twitter his game is poor but he has still been making cuts and a return to familiar surroundings could bring on win number two 0.25 ew 55/1 (take anything down to 45/1)
Third pick is another Englishman Phillip Archer who erm also has won the same event as the above two and finished 7th here on his only start last season. Last year he came here on the back of a 53rd in the Russian Challenge Cup - two weeks ago he was 22nd. I am quite happy to forgive the missed cut last week on a course that didn't suit and at 150/1 is worth a small investment to repeat his Columbian win from March 0.15 ew 150/1 (take anything down to 100/1)
September 18th 22.48
A great night for FBI subscribers with Queen of the South drawing after 90 minutes giving us an 11/2 winner plus we suggested some scoring bets at 25/1, 17/2 and 5/1 which all copped - all this for just £40 for the first month or £450 for the year - click here
Back to the golf - a quiet week so far so here are the bets placed
Navistar LPGA Classic
Brittany Lincicome - 0.3 ew 33/1
WNB Golf Classic
James Hahn 0.3 ew 50/1
Danny Lee - 0.4 ew 50/1
September 17th 16.19
A decent return on the week in the end with Mulroy but could have been so much better had he not kept pulling his ball left but it isn't too often you get to lay a 200/1 shot at evens! I sparked a bit of debate on Twitter by saying there is no value in this weeks Tour Championship but with prices set for over a week and only thirty players on show including a flying Rory I see no real point in getting invloved unless I can find a different angle and I can't see that happening!
So this week we have the European Challenge Tour from Toulouse, the Web.com tour in Texas and the LPGA pitches up in Alabama - there maybe a few bets but I don't think it will be going down as one of the heaviest betting weeks of the season!!
September 15th 22.38
Big day tomorrow with 200/1 pick Garth Mulroy taking a one shot lead into the final round in Italy - it's days like this that make or break the season to be honest so hopefully he can prove as good as he has been in the past in contention.
September 12th 21.08
Last but not least we have the Albertsons Boise Open on the Web.com tour where I have my biggest bet of the week in the shape of Peter Tomasulo. He has a fantastic scoring average around Hillcrest which is no surprise considering he has finished 15/23/7/4/15 and already has a win under his belt this year when he returned from injury in July. So the question is why is he such a big price this week? well he was very poor two weeks ago in his last start and I considered dropping him but then I found out that on Saturday in a small event at his home course he shot the magical 59. I backed him in 2010 when he won shooting a stunning final round 61 and he came out the following week and opened with a 62 so he knows how to go really low back to back which is what will be need this week 0.5 ew 80/1 (66/1 OK)
Last bet is a small one on local Troy Merritt who was 3rd heading into the final round last year before fading to 11th. He is not in the best of form but wasn't last year either and he seems to like playing at altitude (which is what Hillcrest is) - his one win came at El Bosque which is the scene of his best finish this year and his second best came high up in Chile 0.15 ew 150/1.
September 12th 18.54
Just the two bets in what is the last Major of any tour for the year - the Ricoh British Womens Open from what will be a very breezy Hoylake. I have actually gone for two young Europeans to maybe halt the domination of the Far East players in ladies golf - whilst I do fancy a few others I may try and get them onside in running as the weather could put a lot of players out of contention very quickly.
Carly Booth had a slow start to her pro career but a win on the satelite tour has been followed by two wins on the main European Tour including one on the Archerfield links in Scotland. She will have plenty of "home support" as well as her family comes from Liverpool and could be spurred on by recent good form from Scottish golfers on the mens circuit - oh and that tennis player! 0.2 ew 175/1
Caroline Hedwalls price has largely been arrived at as the compilers have looked at her poor form on the LPGA tour since the Spring but this was down to a hip injury and she finally took eight weeks out of the game. She returned last week and duly won which was her fifth win in just twenty three pro starts on the LET - 0.2 ew 80/1
September 12th 14.41
I will start things off in Italy where Wiesberger was my player of choice and I admit at 40/1 he would have been a hefty bet but I simply cannot pull the trigger at the price offered - maybe a bet in running.
Tommy Fleetwood came to the tour with great expectations but has struggled most of the year but there are signs he is turning it around to keep his card. Whilst he has no course form it should suit, he has some great Italian form and his big win on the Challenge Tour came this week last year and he was 2nd the corresponding week the year before 0.25 ew 110/1
The one player who jumped out at me as being overpriced was Raphael Jacquelin - the three time European tour winner won in Italy last year (well Sicily!), was 2nd here in 2009 and already has a 3rd and 5th in decent events this season - the place part is definitely out of line 0.3 ew 80/1
Garth Mulroy is my thought from a bit leftfield although he hasn't got any course form this weeks venue reminds me a bit of Leopard Creek (without the wildlife) where Mulroy won in November and there are plenty of correlations between players performing well at both venues. Mulroy is a fairly long, wayward driver which should be suited here and has been mixing his year up playing in Europe and on the PGA tour. He is a quality player when on song and has won twice on the Web.com tour in recent years so if the course does indeed suit the price tag is big 0.2 ew 200/1
The young Italian Domenico Geminiani could be the surprise package this week. He made his debut here in 2010 at the tender age of fourteen and finished last whilst last year he just missed the cut. He has much more golf under his belt and has turned pro! and has a best finish of 6th on the Challenge Tour so he certainly has game. The main reason I am interested is the reason he actually is invited to play - it is his home course 0.1 ew 500/1 + 0.1 top 10 40/1 + 0.1 ew Rd 1 leader 300/1
I was looking at picking a Scot to carry on the good form of Scottish golfers and maybe be inspired by a certain tennis player so have had a snall saver on Forsyth who has some good form here and won at another Trent Jones snr course Santo de Serra where past winners of this Vancsik has won and Fred Hed has finished 2nd - worth a tenner at 500 on Betfair
September 11th 20.54
A quick summary of bets placed so far this week back with all the write-ups tomorrow
BMW Italian Open

Tommy Fleetwood 0.25 ew 110/1
Garth Mulroy 0.2 ew 200/1
Raphael Jacquelin 0.3 ew 80/1
Domenico Geminiani 0.1 ew 500/1 + 0.1 top 10 40/1 + 0.1 ew Rd 1 leader 300/1
Ricoh British Womens Open
Carly Booth 0.2 ew 175/1
September 10th 21.27
Another blank week last week I'm afraid with Shiv kapur coming as close as any to round one leader in the KLM Open. This week we have the BMW Italian Open headlining and I have already put up Tommy Fleetwood 0.25 ew 110/1 and mor ebets will follow tomorrow. The Web.com tour returns this week with the Boise Open which I will take a close look at plus we have the Ricoh Womens British Open.
September 5th 11.47
The KLM Open comes from Hilversumche for the third straight year since the course was modified and returned as much as possible to Harry Colts original design. Plenty at the top end of the market are short enough given their win ratio so I have looked further down the field for a touch of value.
Dvid Horsey was an obvious pick with finishes of 4th and 6th in the last two years - he also won at Limburg on the Challenge tour on a very similar course. His current form is not great but he often pops up from nowhere and has a win in each of the last two years. He actually struck the ball really well in Crans hitting 17 and 14 greens but a poor putting display let him down - he admitted on Twitter he can't read the greens at Crans but he certainly can at this weeks venue 0.4 ew 80/1
Marcus Fraser was the first bet I put up this week mainly due to the number of top five finishes he racks up - four already this season including a brace of seconds - one which came last week. He doesn't have any great course form to speak of but has a good record at one of Colts other similar courses - Wentworth - all in all worth a play at 70/1 - 0.3 ew
Two time tour winner Jose Manuel Lara often seems to save his best for tree lined courses including his victory in Hong Kong and has been 4th and 6th here the last two years. Those two good finishes came on the back of some pretty poor form so the fact that this time around he is in equally poor form doesn't put me off and he is definitely a value price at a venue that will bring out the best in his game 0.2 ew 150/1
Oliver Fisher is a bit from left field but English players have a good record here in recent years and I think he could be a suprise package this week. His recent form reminds me of what he was doing last year before he claimed his first European tour title. He was on a long series of missed cuts but then made two cuts and won the Czech Open. Roll forward twelve months and we have the same scenario again and his 19th place finish last week really caught my eye as he had previously missed all three cuts at Crans so his opening 65 and closing 66 are worthy of note 0.2 ew 200/1
Last but not least I will have a small first round leader bet on Shiv Kapur who seems to like the early rounds here. In 2010 he opened 64/68 to lie 2nd and then 1st after the Thursday and Friiday and then last year went 66/66 to lie 3rd each day - at 200/1 he is worth a 0.1 ew bet.
I have had a few small savers on Betfair on Kapur 600, Levet 75, Fred Hed 70 and Morrison 170.
September 5th 10.43
Right - kids back to school - can finally concentrate on work during the daytime!
Firstly a few thoughts on the BMW Championship from Crooked Stick the scene of John Dalys 1991 PGA Championship victory. Basically we have no course form to go on so I will stick with one player who has strong local ties and who at least has been playing the course which I think maybe vital this week with one day less in the tournament turnaround due to the Monday finish in Boston. Jeff Overton was really keen to get to play this week and only qualified by a 7th place at last weeks Deutsche Bank. Whilst he hasn't won on tour his career is littered with top five finishes so is worth a small play outright at 80/1 (0.25 ew) and having the course advantage he could well get off to a fast start on day one as he did last week - 0.15 ew Rd 1 leader 66/1.
September 4th 15.58
Below is a full list of bets placed this week - still unsure about a couple of others but writeups will have to wait until tomorrow
KLM Open
Marcus Fraser 0.3 ew 70/1 (66/1 OK)
David Horsey 0.4 ew 80/1
Jose Manuel Lara 0.2 ew 150/1
Oliver Fisher 0.2 ew 200/40 Unibet proofed @ 150/1
Shiv Kapur Rd 1 leader 0.1 ew 200/1
BMW Championship
Jeff Overton 0.25 ew 80/1 + 1st rd leader 0.15 ew 66/1
September 3rd 12.23
I have just about calmed down from seeing yet another each way bet finish 6th in a golf tournament - so damn frustrating! Moving on swiftly to this week and we have the BMW Championship from Crooked Stick - the scene of the 1991 US PGA victory for John Daly - obviously there will be no prices until tomorrow for that one and I doubt there will be many bets for me. I will be sticking mainly to the European tour and the KLM Open - bets should start appearing on Twitter later today.
August 29th 22.29
The first bet I put up for the Mylan Classic was the same player I put up last year but at five times the price! Steve Wheatcroft grew up ten minutes from the course and worked at Southpointe in his youth. He was 3rd here two years ago but disappointed when I was on last year but I cannot leave him out at 150/1 as he drops in grade after a poor season on the main tour - much as he did when 3rd in 2010. He seems to be in a good mood having got engaged a few weeks back as well - 0.3 ew 150/1.
I will go for another local player in the form of Scott Dunlap who was born within 20 miles of the course and actually led here after round one on his debut in 2010. He made his last five cuts on the PGA tour and when he dropped down to the Web.com tour last week he finished 6th. He has won twice on this tour before and a further nine times around the world so is more than capable of finishing the job 0.5 ew 55/1.
Lastly on this tour I will go for Jason Gore who has split his time this season between both tours and to be honest he has had quite a few chances to win often being let down by poor weekends but he did manage a win two years ago on the Web.com tour. He has played here just the once - two years ago when he was 4th at the cut and went on to finish 32nd but his one win on the main PGA tour came in the state of Pennsylvania 0.3 ew 55/1
August 29th 20.45
I meant to add on my thoughts on Europe that I did get 150/1 on John Daly on Sunday night on Betfair who is in really good form at the moment but didn't really want to tip him at less than half that as I have no idea if he will take to the course.
The Deutsche Bank Championship doesn't start til Friday but even with an extra day I haven't really come up with anything. Again I backed one early in the shape of Brandt Snedker who really should go well as he loves the course and found some form last week but his price of around 25/28 is about right. Instead I will have a small punt on vteran Tom Gillis who was a solid 10th at Bethpage last week. In his last start at Boston two years ago he closed with a pair of 65's to finish 5th so I will have a small bet he might repeat the feat 0.1 win 200/1 + 0.2 top 5 34/1
August 29th 20.27
Apologies for the delay in getting thoughts down this week but will do them all in brief over the next hour or two. Firstly the Omega Masters where main bet had to go to Bernd Wiesberger whose price seems to be based on the fact he missed the cut last year. I will take that with a pinch of salt as it came the week after he lost in a playoff at Gleneagles. He has won twice this season and don't think his "poor" performances in the States mean he is suddenly a worse player and he freshened up by winning the two round Zurich Open last week so will be well acclimatised 0.5 ew 55/1.
Brett Rumford is well worth a bet in the first round leader market as in twelve starts here he can boast first round finishes of 4/5/3/5/1 and certainly found his form last week when second 0.2 ew 55/1.
I have also backed Mikko Ilonen in the same market as Rumford as in his last three visits here the Finn has been 3rd, 5th and 2nd after Thursday. His overall course form at Crans is very solid even when he has turned up in poor form so the last couple of missed cuts don't put me off - I owuld rather look at his 3rd in the Nordea just two months ago as a solid sign of what he can achieve 0.2 ew 150/1 + 0.1 ew Rd 1 leader 100/1.
Lastly I have had a small bet on Benjamin Hebert who a year ago earned automatic promotion following three rapid wins on the Challenge tour - two of those wins came in Switzerland so he should feel at home this week. He has struggled on the main tour but was 6th in Austria on his penultimate start so at 250/1 I'll have 0.1 ew
August 29th 10.24
A quick bet summary of everything done this week - don't forget these are all posted on Twitter @ SBIdotcom
Omega European Masters
Bernd Wiesberger 0.5 ew 55/1
Brett Rumford Rd 1 leader 0.2 ew 55/1
Mikko Ilonen 0.2 ew 150/1 + 0.1 ew Rd 1 leader 100/1
Benjamin Hebert 0.1 ew 250/1 (300/60 Unibet)
Deutsche Bank Championship
Tom Gillis 0.1 win - proofed 200/1 Unibet but plenty Betfair/Betdaq + 0.2 Top 5 34/1
Mylan Classic
Steve Wheatcroft 0.3 ew 150/1 
Jason Gore 0.3 ew 55/1 
Scott Dunlap 0.5 ew 55/1
August 27th 15.53
Awful week last week - Triplett and Swafford were both tied 2nd Saturday morning and did the square root of diddly squat over the weekend and to add insult to injury I backed Oosthuizen on Saturday at 100/1 ew 1/5 4 and he finished 5th.
Something has been going wrong with my European picks - another two missed cuts last week - not sure whether to persevere with that tour or give up - will try a few new things until the end of the season and see how things stand. This week we have the Omega European Masters from wonderful Crans - always sends me a sign that summer is nearly here as it must be September lol. We also have stage two of the Fedex playoffs which starts Friday - the Deutsche Bank from Boston - gotta like Snedeker and I got some on at 44 last night but can't really tip him at the prices he is this afternoon.
August 22nd 20.58
Quite a bit of attention in this weeks Champions Tour event has focused on the debut of Duffy Waldorf and I admit I have had a small saver at 33/1 but my attention has focused on a player who made his Champions tour debut in April and already has a win under his belt. Kirk Triplett has played in twelve events as a senior and already has a win and a second. His form before turning fifty I think was possibly even better than Waldorfs has been and interestingly he even won in this corresponding week on the Web.com tour in 2011. The icing on the cake is the venue in Washington - Triplett was born and raised within thirty miles of the course and it gives him a rare chance to play at "home" - 0.4 ew 50/1.
On the Web.com tour I have gone for two players - for Garrett Willis it is a home game - he has been based at Fox Den for many years and after a poor PGA season he drops down in grade - 0.2 ew 80/1. I think Hudson Swafford has now dropped to a backable price and whilst he has no course form to speak of I believe he will be more at home in Tennessee than he has been at some recent tour stops - 0.25 ew 66/1
August 21st 22.28
The first event of the Fedex playoffs is again played in New York but this time moves to the notoriously difficult Bethpage Black course - scene of the 2002 and 2009 US Opens - so expect it to play tough.
Carl Pettersson is purely a bet to me based on price - last week he was 20/1 on the back of his third at the PGA Championship and again he acquitted himself well by finishing 4th - so how the hell can he be 80/1 this week? It really doesn't make a lot of sense to me. He did play the 09 US Open and finished a respectable 36th and with his win ratio and current form he has to be worth a bet - 0.3 ew 80/1.
I will take a risk with Henrik Stenson who is probably only a three figure price this week because he withdrew last week at the Wyndham but that was due to a stomach bug not an injury. Before that he was 6/7/8 in three top European events having struggled a bit since his Augusta meltdown. He was 9th in the US Open here three years ago and he might well be spurred on by his fellow Swedes good results - 0.25 ew 125/1 6 places.
From leftfield I have gone for tour veteran Jeff Maggert who will surely appreciate playing on a US Open type course - .an event where he has been 9th,4th,4th,7th,7th, 3rd and 3rd. One of those 3rds was here in 2002 and he was also 3rd at another Tillinghast course - the 97 US PGA at Winged Foot. I admit he is now getting on and his form is not great most of the time but he rarely plays on courses which suit his game these days. I do think he could produce a few good rounds so have especially gone for the round one leader market - he does have a 4th,1st and 2nd in that market this season and when he led it was at Southwind where he had won before - I do think his best form these days is on courses he has done well on in the past. 0.1 ew 500/1 Unibet or 400/1 Spreadex (300/1 OK) + 0.2 ew Rd1 leader 250/1 (200/1 OK) + 0.2 ew Top US 200/1 (125/1 OK)
August 21st 21.35
On Sunday at Gleneagles we will witness an emotional cauldron as players find out whether or not they have made it into the Ryder Cup squad - personally I would rather steer clear of all the hype and have backed two players for whom the Ryder Cup is an irrelevance.
Last year I backed Jacquelin in the Johnnie Walker at 45/1 and as he is in a similar level of form at present I see no point in passing over him at 66/1. His long term scoring average around Gleneagles is superb with his best finishes being 3/8/10/10/11 in ten starts. I can forgive him his m/c in the Open but before that he was 3rd in his home open, 16th in the Scottish Open and a commendable 21st in the US Open - that is fine form and he has often showed his best results after a few weeks off - 0.4 ew 66/1.
Felipe Aguilar is my longshot for the week in Scotland mainly due to the fact that he has played solidly at Gleneagles in his four starts but generally one aspect of his game has let him down each time and if he can put all aspects of his game together then he could challenge. On his debut in 2006 he was 3rd all round and his 11th place was the best finish of his career so far. In 2010 he was 26th on the back of three missed cuts and was 2nd for DA and 1st for GIR but holed nothing and then last year he was the third best putter - 0.2 ew 150/1
August 21st 20.01
A quick summary of all the bets for this weeks main events
Johnnie Walker Championship
Raphael Jacquelin 0.4 ew 66/1
Felipe Aguilar 0.2 ew 150/1
Barclays
Carl Pettersson 0.3 ew 80/1
Henrik Stenson 0.25 ew 125/1 (6 places) 100/1 OK
Jeff Maggert 0.1 ew 500/1 Unibet or 400/1 Spreadex (300/1 OK) + 0.2 ew Rd1 leader 250/1 (200/1 OK) + 0.2 ew Top US 200/1 (125/1 OK)
August 20th 13.46
Afternoon all - well what a pigs ear of the back nine Brad Faxon made on the Champions Tour - I suppose I shouldn't moan at the 100/1 shot finishing tied 3rd but he was awful! With any luck Justin Leonard can creep into the places at the delayed Wyndham this afternoon.
The two main events this week are the first of the Fedex playoffs - the Barclays from the notoriously difficult Bethpage Black course and the Johnnie walker Championship from Gleneagles where several players are trying to secure Ryder Cup berths.
August 15th 09.31
Just the one bet in the Midwest Classic on Paul Haley II - in fifteen starts on the Web.com tour he has a win and two runner-up slots and this week he gets to play a course he has played before as a junior (and played quite well). He may have gone off the boil a bit but did shoot a pair of 65's last week so his putter can still get hot 0.4 ew 50/1
August 14th 21.38
A bit short of time this week as going to be taking a few days off so just some brief thoughts on bets plus I will put up Web.com bets tomorrow
Wyndham Championship
Jason Bohn - most of his best form is in the South East including 2nd Mississippi a couple of weeks ago and won in Louisiana two years ago. Great scoring average here - hopefully the change in greens won't affect him too much 0.5 ew 80/1
William McGirt - seems an over reaction after his m/c in the PGA Championship as before that he was 5th and 2nd. It's a home game for him and in 2007 he made his first ever appearance on tour in this event 0.3 ew 100/1
John Mallinger - lowest scoring average of anyone with at least two starts finishing 3rd and 12th. Was 4th in his last start and often holds his form when he finds it 0.25 ew 80/1
Justin Leonard - again has some really solid course form and had a top five lto. These days he only performs well on a limited number of courses so worth a small flutter 0.2 ew 125/1
Kevin Streelman - only backing him for the round one leader market as the local Duke grad has always opened well - 66/65/64 has seen him lie 11/5/3 over the last few years - 0.2 ew 90/1
Dicks Sporting Goods
Just the one bet on Brad Faxon who gets chance to play the En Joie course for the first time on the Champions tour. He is rightly looking forward to this week as he won here the last two times he played the BC Open on the main tour.He has won a rain shortened event on the senior tour on the Woodlands course on which he had quite a bit of experience as well - 0.2 ew 100/1
Safeway Classic
Just a bit of a hunch at a big price - Tiffany Joh was a top amateur and played really well here at the 2007 US amateur. Last year she was 31st after a very poor opening round and she has proven last year she can play at this level 0.1 ew 500/1
August 13th 09.39
Who would be a tipster eh? A very poor Olympics for me - luckily didn't get carried away but didn't come close with the few bets I did put up. I see Tony Ansell is getting a lot of stick although he seems to block those who moan about his tips on Twitter since his results page has disappeared - still I guess putting up athletics tips with small limits allowed means you are on a hiding to nothing!
After the Olympics I then witness 80/1 tip Letzig finishing 6th last night and was waiting for the worst but fortunately Carl Pettersson hung on for a place in the PGA Championship. I think it was a good job his penalty on the first was dished out early otherwise who knows what might have happened.
Back down to earth with a bump I guess but the Wyndham Championship looks good and there are lots of small events to get stuck into this week - will update tips page later.
August 11th 11.22
It is often true that your first pick is usually your best pick and that is certainly true with the PGA Championship where first choice Carl Pettersson shares the lead at the cut having been put up at 150/1. The Swede flagged a bit towards the end of a long tiring round but he is certainly competitive in the mix. We also have good chances in the Web.com with both Letzig and Bolli lying in tied 5th just two shots off the lead.
I haven't had any more athletics bets until today - tbh I simply haven't had the time to devote to it but I have added to original marathon pick Mutai. The Kenyans have been struggling with the exception of the awesome Rudisha and I think it is sensible to get an Ethiopian on side. Abshero could really be anything and is way too short based on one fast race at the distance and I would rather go for the experienced Getu Feleke who reminds me a lot of Gelana who won the womans race last week, 14/1 or 16/1 each way seems a reasonable price.
August 8th 21.52
In my mind the Price Cutter Charity Championship has thrown up a few course specialists over the years and that is where I have concentrated my efforts and number one pick Justin Bolli really does stand out. Basically in his last four appearances here he has finished 3/3/1/8 and when you add in the fact that he was 3rd last week then he really was a very straightforward pick 0.5 ew 28/1.
I am going to stick with John Hurley after last week - he made his first cut and was hitting it over 350 yards!! Reading an interview he said he believed he was similar to last years winner Friesen, both players made the cut at their home event the Cox Classic before coming to Missouri and Friesen led from start to finish. Admittedly Hurley had to Monday qualify this week but he did it easily by going very low 0.1 ew 200/1.
Josh Broadaway is yet to win on this tour after many years of trying but if he was to win it could well be here where he has been 3rd and 4th in the past and whilst his finishes haven't looked that great of late he did lead the all round stats last week 0.2 ew 100/1
My last two picks go to two local players - Michael Letzig like Broadaway is yet to win on tour but he has proved he can play well in his home state before having been 4th and 5th here. He was 3rd earlier in the season in California and showed up well for two rounds in Utah a few weeks ago 0.2 ew 80/1.
I was rather surprised to see Kevin Kring priced up at 750/1 by Bet365 and I duly had my max on - £1 ew! Kring only turned pro a few months ago but we have seen what Kohles has done in his first two pro events! Kring had to Monday qualify but was desperate to do so as Highland Springs is his home course and a few weeks ago stated that he felt he could finish top ten if given the chance 0.1 ew 200/1
August 8th 15.18
I wouldn't normally say that a 14/1 shot is a good price in a golf event and I don't like backing players so short but Espen Kofstad should go well in the Norwegian Challenge - his form reads 1/3/5 and he won the Norwegian Amateur on this course two years ago by seven shots. Personally I have put him in an e/w double with my main Web.com pick Justin Bolli at 28/1.
Below is a quick summary of the picks for the Price Cutter Charity Championship - full preview this evening
Justin Bolli 0.5 ew 28/1
John Hurley 0.1 ew 200/1
Michael Letzig 0.2 ew 80/1
Josh Broadaway 0.2 ew 100/1
Kevin Kring 0.1 ew 200/1
August 6th 23.11
Well we have no real course form to go on but are told that Kiawah Island Ocean course is a monster Pete Dye design so who will it favour? I guess with its length you can probably rule out the shortest hitters and you also nedd someone who can handle the inevitable wind that is bound to appear at some point. Basically I have gone for a range of players who I feel are overpriced due to varying factors but I have left out one player I think may go well - Webb Simpson - I want to see the bags under the eyes of the US Open winner having come back from paternity leave!
Carl Pettersson has a very strong association with the area having studied and lived in North Carolina since he was a teenager. He won the Wyndham in the state in 2008 and this year won The Heritage at Harbour Town in South Carolina. He is now a five time winner on tour and in comfortable surroundings I think he will give a fine account of himself 0.3 ew 150/1
Bill Haas is the second player I have gone for with local ties having been born, lived and been to college in either North or South Carolina and says he is familiar with Kiawah Island. He has now won four times in the last two years but has been a bit off form since winning the Northern trust Open earlier this year, however he has shown some glimpses of form in his last two starts. I think at his price he is well worth backing considering he knows how to win and has won an event as strong as the Tour Championship 0.5 ew 80/1 (6 places)
Bud Cauley is a player I just couldn't resist at 200/1 - I know it's a Major but I just cannot see why he should be such a big price when you consider the form he has shown in his short professional career. He has been 4th in his last two starts - admittedly in two weaker events but he was 4th in the stronger Bay Hill event earlier this season. I just think at the price he is well worth a small risk 0.2 ew 200/1 (6 places)
Robert Garrigus certainly has the power to overcome the lengthy Kiawah Island course but sometimes he can combine that with some great GIR stats which has led him to being 2nd three times this season already. Over his last few starts he has shown some really good scarmbling stats which should help him this week 0.25 ew 125/1 (6 places)
I am not really sure why Steve Stricker is 50/1 this week and he is the shortest priced player I will be backing. I simply don't get his price as he has won eight times in the last four years with a Major being the one "event" that has eluded him. He has been in good form over the last month including a 5th at the John Deere when going for a "fourpeat" and was 2nd last week at the WGC - quite simply he should not be double the price of Westwood or Dustin Johnson 0.4 ew 50/1
I will put Rory Sabbatini in as I like a man with a bit of course form and there are few playing this week who can say they have won at Kiawah Island but the feisty Saffer can. In 2003 he won the World Championship event here alongside Trevor Immelman so he as much as anyone will love to return to the course. He has had a strange couple of months playing events he has never or seldom played before but the bookmakers seems to have rapidly forgotten his 2nd to Tiger at the Memorial just two months ago and he has many good finishes on windy coastal courses over the years 0.2 ew 225/1 (6 places)
August 6th 15.17
It has been pretty easy to get the bets on for the US PGA Championship so I am ahead of schedule - below is a list of bets placed and I will endeavour to get a full preview out tonight
Carl Pettersson 0.3 ew 150/1
Bill Haas 0.5 ew 80/1 (6 places)
Bud Cauley 0.2 ew 200/1 (6 places)
Robert Garrigus 0.25 ew 125/1 (6 places)
Steve Stricker 0.4 ew 50/1
Rory Sabbatini 0.2 ew 225/1 (6 places)
August 6th 10.29
Trying not to dwell on what should have been last week with Josh Teater - one poor round cost him quite possibly the title and definitely a place and six bogeys yesterday certainly didn't help the cause as he finished just out of the places in a tie for 7th.
Moving onto this week we have the final Major of the year the US PGA Championship from the stunning Kiawah Island course. In a way this is one of the hardest to predict of the four with a different course being used every year (ostensibly on the Eastern seaboard) and with the exception of Tiger Woods favourites have a pretty poor record but second tier quality players who are proven winners often come to the fore. This explains my two antepost picks so far - Carl Pettersson 0.3 ew 150/1 and Bill Haas 0.5 ew 80/1 (6 places). There will be more picks over the next 24 hours posted on Twitter first and then a full preview at some stage tomorrow.
August 4th 18.07
Well it has been a bit of a pain in the arse getting bets on the Olympics athletics but I am quite happy with what I have so far and below is a summary.
In the mens 100m I am quite happy with the way Gatlin ran today and really think he could be set to trouble the Jamaican pair tomorrow. I still think Mutai is a cracking bet in the mens marathon and am surprised his price hasn't really been cut.
Today I have added to Flanagan in the womens marathon that takes place tomorrow in the shape of Kenyan second string Edna Kiplagat who I think is a cracking each way bet at around 8/1. Basically her form over the last few years is as follows - 2010 won Los Angeles won New York (beating debutants Flanagan and Keitany), 2011 3rd London 1st World Championships then this year in London she was 2nd. On a tricky course I really do find it difficult to see her out of the top three.
I have bet a couple of ladies in the middle distance races - I already mentioned below - 800m Francine Niyonsaba unexposed & worth an e/w bet @ 16/1 and she has been cut and today I have added Womens 1500m Ekaterina Kostetskaya 12/1 e/w. The Russian is totally unexposed at this distance having moved up from the 800m and certainly has the pedigree to succeed at 1500m as her mother was national and European champion at the distance and her father was also a high class middle distance runner. She would love to emulate her mother and beat her PB of 3:54.23 which would definitely see her in the medals.
August 2nd 10.57
A quick few points on the two small bets for the Cox Classic where I have gone for two local lads at big prices. Steve Friesen has played here on numerous occasions - usually on a sponsors invite, this time he gets in by right having won on the tour last year 0.1 ew 250/1 (150/1 OK). The other one is Monday qualifier John Hurley who has won the Nebraska State amateur a few times. He played last year as a sponsors invite but says he is now prepared to do himself justice at home 0.1 ew 300/1 (250/1 OK)
August 1st 20.52
Time for a few thoughts on the Reno Tahoe Open and I guess the main point is that I am glad I went for Teater on Monday night at 50/1. He is an obvious pick - he is bang in form, was 10th last year having gone into the final round 2nd, he bags a lot of birdies which is what is required with the new Stableford format and his win on the Web.com tour came in neighbouring Utah also at altitude - no brainer really.
Alex Cejka certainly has good course form here - 5th in his last two starts but also 9th and 12th - maybe he feels comfortable in Nevada as he lives in Las Vegas. He had really good form in Europe at Crans (5th, 3rd and 6th) also at altitude and interestingly he was runner up high up in Colorado at the now defunct International which used the Stableford format back in 2004. I really do think the format will suit as he although he makes a lot of bogeys he is really high up in the birdies stats averaging over four a round, so everything seems in his favour this week.
My one from left field is Nevada native Craig Barlow who was 5th in 2010 and 6th in 2003. Whilst he is out of form he can find something from nowhere and he turned 40 last week and we have seen what that can do for players in the past
August 1st 12.22
Apologies for the delays with posting bets on here but fitting in research on Olympics and everything else in school holidays can be a bit tight!
Reno Tahoe Open
Josh Teater 0.5 ew 50/1 (Glad we went early on Monday with that one!)
Alex Cejka 0.4 ew 55/1
Craig Barlow 0.1 win 400/1 + 0.1 top 5 66/1 + 0.2 top 10 25/1
Cox Classic
Steve Friesen 0.1 ew 250/1 (150/1 OK)
I have also had a bet in the Womens 800m on Francine Niyonsaba unexposed & worth an e/w bet @ 16/1
July 30th 22.20
Last year I had a nice win on Adam Scott at Firestone @ 50/1 - would I be backing him @ 18/1 after what happened at Lytham? Certainly not! In fact quite a few of the pricea at the top of the market have me scratching my head none more so than Zach Johnson - how can he be 33/1. Now I know I often misjudge prices at the top of the market but Johnson in his last nine events has two wins and two seconds. It is not as if his course form is poor with his best result last year when 6th - his course form is actually very similar over the years to Scott. I have only gone 0.5 ew @ the early 35/1 because I don't do great at the top end of the market but this price just seems wrong to me.
When I looked at the early prices on betfair on Sunday night the one price that stood out of the longer shots was Martin Laird and I duly helped myself to £40 @ 120. He has improved with both starts here with finishes of 16th and 11th with some really good rounds. With a 20% top 5 strike rate in his last 50 starts I had to go for the 80/1 put up at lunchtime and to be honest the place part of 66/1 is still OK 0.25 ew.
July 30th 20.39
Before looking at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational a bit of info on the Olympics Mens marathon bet which I put up on Twitter earlier today. I think the mens marathon will probably be contended by the three Kenyans (no shock there!) but I have gone for the outsider of the three - Emmanuel Mutai.
The favourite and justifiably so is Wilson Kipsang Kiprotich who I had a big bet on to win the London marathon earlier this year and duly obliged. That made it four straight marathon wins after being 3rd on his debut and I really wouldn't want to put people off betting him but to me his price is about right and he has been downplaying his chances a bit by saying he might be too tall for the tricky turning course.
Abel Kirui has won the last two World Championship marathons but apart from those wins he actually hasn't got the best record in big city marathons. The second favourite is 21 year old Ethiopian Ayele Abshero who made his marathon debut in January and produced the fastest ever time for a debutaant. However I think he will find the course very different and will lack a bit of experience for this.
Emmanuel Mutai is a cracking each way bet in my opinion just by looking at his performances over the last three years. In 2009 he was 4th in London and 2nd in the World Champs, 2010 2nd London and 2nd New York, 2011 1st London and 2nd New York. That is incredibly consistent running but the reason he is such a big price is that he was 7th in London this year but there is a simple explanantion for this (as I pointed out at the time) - he was lucky to run at all in April as a month before he had a bout of typhoid. He only actually ran to qualify for the Olympics and did actually miss out on selection but Moses Mosop pulled out injured and Mutai was brought in to replace him. I have managed to get on Betfair at around 13/14 to win £1k and Betfred for the podium - @ 12/5. Any price around 8/9/10 e/w is too big.
July 29th 10.55
I have spent the last few days concentrating on the marathon and will probably have another couple of bets over the next few days. On the golf front Chris Kirk is in with a shout tonight - he has been playing really well all week with no bogeys or double bogeys on his card - sadly he had a triple on Thursday! Jordan Spieth got into contention yesterday only to drop three shots on the last two holes - he will have to go low today. Personally I backed amateur Kim in the Evian @ 80/1 after the opening round - it will be interesting to see how she handles todays pressure.
Next week on the golf front we have the WGC Bridgestone Invitational - I don't think I will be backing Scott again this year! and we also have the Reno Tahoe Open which takes on a modified stableford format.
We had a nice winning start to the Scottish football season over at FBI with a 5 point haul from the 25 staked - spaces are still available and we have a £40 special offer on
July 26th 21.55
It ihas been really difficult betting on the Olympics so far - how do you play it? My main interest is athletics but what is the point in scrambling for early prices and being allowed pennies on as some tipsters do? Instead I have taken the long term approach and waited for all prices to come out and tried to find something that the compilers have missed. I have found a runner in the Womens Marathon who seems to have been overlooked. Mary Keitany is a justifiable short priced favourite - she made her debut in the 2010 New York marathon alongside American Shalane Flanagan and the American beat her by twenty seconds finishing 2nd to Keitanys 3rd. Flanagan has only run one marathon since when breaking the course record and winning the US Olympic trial in Houston earlier this year. Reading all her interviews she has clearly geared up for this event whereas so many marathon runners peak for the big money events. She would dearly love to improve on her bronze medal in the 10k from the 2008 Olympics and I think she is the dark horse in the field. Whilst she doesn't have the fast times of the favourites she hasn't run on the fast courses and I think the course will not be conducive to really fast times making those at the head of the market particularly vulnerable. Coral go 25/1 1/5 3 - if you can get on there have a good crack - to give you an idea I would have £100 ew - the 10/1 Skybet is far more realistic.
July 25th 21.41
The Nationwide Childrens Hospital Invitational enters its 6th renewal and one thing has become apparent as I suggested last year when tipping winner Harris English @ 100/1 - keep a close eye on the invited amateurs. Apart from English - Summerhays won the first rendition, Fowler lost in a playoff and Morgan Hoffman has been 8th and 9th. I have stuck with this theme and have two main picks and a couple of small just in case ones! Jordan Spieth is the number one amateur in the world, he has made quite a few cuts on the PGA tour and was 21st at the US Open last month - 0.4 ew 66/1 (60/1 with some Aus books) Chris Williams is number two in the world and has multiple amateur wins including the Washington State Amateur a few weeks ago by ten shots. He played here last year but missed the cut on the number but is much improved this season 0.3 ew 66/1. The two small bets go to Patrick Rodgers (number three) 0.1 ew 66/1 and Justin Thomas (number six) 0.1 ew 50/1.
July 25th 21.03
It would come as no surprise to see Roger Chapman play well again this week as he goes for his third Major of the season but I think his price is now probably about right but I have gone for a big priced outsider who will have some pretty positive memories of playing at Turnberry. Anders Forsbrand played in two Opens at the course - in 1986 he was 2nd after round one before eventually finishing 16th and in 1994 when 4th he created a record that still hasn't been bettered when he scored the lowest final thirty six holes at an Open. He gave up playing competitive golf for seven years but returned to play the European Senior tour last year. It has taken him a while to find his feet but he has had a 2nd and 4th in the last month and tops the GIR stats for the tour - 0.5 ew 150/1
July 25th 20.30
A few thoughts on the RBC Canadian Open where I have only put up one tip in Chris Kirk although personally I have backed a few others. I am not sure why Chris Kirk is a three figure price this week as he often seems to show his best form on traditional par 70 courses. He defended his first PGA title at Annandale last week and did it very well finishing 10th and now he has that off his back I expect him to progress further and gain more wins - 0.3 ew 100/1. I backed Vijay Singh at 66/1 ew when prices first came out as he has a good record here in 03 and 06 and sneaked into the top ten at the Open last week but 50/1 is borderline. I do think Scott Brown is a big price on Betfair and have backed him 270/60/28 for the win/5/10 as he seems to have a new lease of life since becoming a Dad and finishing 7th and 5th in his last two starts. As a rank outsider I have also backed Ontarian Matt McQuillan 800/160/80 as he sprang to life last year when 3rd at the John Deere and followed that with a 6th and a 7th - a home game may reinvigorate him.
July 24th 20.20
A quick post - have been far more cautious this week and have only had three bets so far. In the Lyoness Open which starts tomorrow I have backed Christian Nilsson who has a habit of playing the same courses well year in year out and was 8th here last year - 0.3 ew 66/1. The other two bets I have had are in the Canadian Open - Chris Kirk 0.25 ew 100/1 and in the British Senior Open - Anders Forsbrand 0.5 ew 150/1. More on these bets tomorrow plus further bets as well.
July 23rd 10.39
Right - well where do I start - I guess an apology is in order - last week was diabolical - I lost my professional punting head and got caught up in the glamour of the event - even if Colsaerts had placed I would still have been disappointed in the way I acted and for those who followed my advice and lost money I apologise.
I know how I make money from betting on golf and I moved away from the rules in so many of the bets last week so this week it is back to basics. We have the Lyoness Open from Austria and the RBC Canadian Open headlining but I will be concentrating on the British Senior Open from Turnberry and the Nationwide Children's Hospital Open. Bets will be advised on Twitter as usual but there probably won't be any write ups until Wednesday.
July 21th 09.32
Well I think have lost all chances of winning the Open from my original selections although Pettersson, Dyson and Goosen have now given themselves place chances and Bennett is hanging around in the English/GB markets. The only bet I added to the Betfair portfolio was Potter £10 @ 650 but that seems a lost cause now. Maybe I should sit back and let things run their course but if I see a wrong price I have to take it and Boyles and Skybet have a without Woods, Scott and Snedeker market and some of the players on -1 seem overpriced to me - if you can have 0.2 ew on Dyson 50, Haas 66, Romero 66 and Pettersson 66.
July 19th 21.29
It's been an eye opening day at Lytham and to be honest early on it was all doom and gloom as my biggest ever golf bet on Michael Hoey sank like a stone as he is plum last. My mood has improved somewhat as Colsaerts moved through the field this afternoon to sit 2nd after day one. I have made a few changes on the Betfair portfolio by backing a few players more than I already had and adding a small bet on Baldwyn. The main extra bet has gone on little known American Justin Hicks who shot two under late on. The Open has shown that unknown Americans can win and Hicks has been in really good form on the Nationwide Tour this year - 0.1 ew 300/1 (5 places) + £25 10000
Current Betfair position as follows
Paul Lawrie +805
Nicolas Colsaerts +1530
Jamie Donaldson +5110
Retief Gossen +4345
Matthew Baldwyn +2525
Carl Pettersson +22,040
Justin Hicks +24,525
Dustin Johnson +2035
Simon Dyson +5930
Darren Clarke +1725
Tim Clark +5405
Michael Hoey +43,340
Greg Owen +29,525
Chez Reavie +24,525
Warren Bennet +17,025
Paul Broadhurst +17,025
Field -475
July 18th 20.44
There is another event going on this week - a very weak looking True South Classic from the Annandale course in Mississippi and I have had two bets. Firstly Bill Lunde who was also a pick last year when the event moved to a July date opposite the Open Championship. Last year he finished 13th but was 1st in the all round stats so he can clearly play the course. He isn't in the best of form but he can find it from nowhere and is best when the big fish are away which was exactly what happened when he won on tour. 0.25 ew 80/1 (66/1 OK)
My other pick is a little left field in Arjun Atwal who will certainly be at home in the conditions - he will only take a jumper off when it gets over one hundred degrees! He has improved on each start here and led after round one last time and whilst his figures don't look great he claims he is playing well but just not scoring. One other small thing - he could well be inspired by his compatriot Jeev winning last week 0.2 ew 200/1 (150/1 OK)
I couldn't put you off backing either of these two in the round one leader market or indeed Nathan Green.
July 18th 10.06
Apart from all the bets detailed below I also have a portfolio of players I have backed on Betfair with a view to trading, I will try and update at the end of each days play any movements. Back in a bit with brief thoughts on Lunde and Atwal in the True South Classic.
Dustin Johnson +1500
Paul Lawrie +880
Nicolas Colsaerts +1600
Simon Dyson +4700
Retief Gossen +3600
Jamie Donaldson +1600
Darren Clarke +1800
Carl Pettersson +19,610
Tim Clark +5480
Michael Hoey +43,420
Greg Owen +29,600
Chez Reavie +24,600
Warren Bennet +12,100
Paul Broadhurst +17,100
Field -400
July 17th 16.03
We are just two days away from the start of the Open Championship and I must admit the juices are flowing and I feel a bit like a kid waiting for Christmas and I have just finished putting up the decorations! From a punting point of view it is one of the most exciting events of the sporting year and I have been placing bets for the past few months so I will split the player profiles into those placed antepost and those this week.
First of all a couple of points about the course – the greens may well be softer than ideal and possibly the fairways as well but if you miss those fairways you will be in an awful lot of trouble as with the summer we have had the rough is simply brutal. If anyone is wayward off the tee then they will be punished severely.

I guess a lot of people are interested in why I have such a big bet on Michael Hoey – well it all boils down to the courses where he has been successful – namely short, windy courses by the sea and the fact that he has won three times on these types of courses in the last fourteen months. When he won the Alfred Dunhill Links from a top quality field in October the one thing that he was really happy about was the fact he would get into the Open at Lytham – the scene of his only Major to date when he qualified having won the British Amateur. He is a player who now knows how to win including decent events and I think his price in no way reflects his wins to runs ratio. 1.5 ew 200/1 (6 places)

Nicolas Colsaerts has finally started to fulfill his enormous potential over the last few seasons – initially on the Challenge Tour and now on the main tour. He is a very consistent player and regularly starts normal events at 20/1 or less so I had to act when 100/1 was available. I guess the question is now is there any value left? Well at 80/1 with up to seven places available I would have to say yes as he is a fine links player. 0.4 ew 100/1

The American Dustin Johnson remains my only pick from across the pond despite the fact that they have a great record at Lytham over the years. I backed him on his return from injury when he won the St Jude Classic – one good pointer in finding Open winners in recent years has been to back players who have already won in the current year. He could easily have bagged a couple of Majors already especially when 2nd at Royal St Georges last year and his form at Pebble Beach clearly shows he enjoys coastal links courses 0.3 ew 50/1

Put Simon Dyson on a links course and you will invariably see the best of him but also he is a man who knows how to win with four victories in the last three years. He has a steely determination when in contention which some players higher in the world rankings could well learn from. Whilst we haven't seen the best of him so far this year he does rank 5th on the European Tour in scoring average over the past three months. 0.25 ew 125/1 (6 places)

Now onto the players I have tipped this week

In all honesty I cannot actually see Retief Goosen winning this week despite the fact he is a two time Major champion. What attracted me at the price is the fact that he excels on tough courses and has a great Open record. In his last sixteen Opens he has finished in the top ten no less than eight times but odds of around 9/1 for a top ten maybe about right considering his current form but I couldn't put you off as he was 10th in the US Open last month. I have gone each way with seven places as you would have got a payout in four of the last eight years so 27.5/1 could be seen as generous! 0.25 ew 110/1 (7 places)

I mentioned above that players who had already won this year should attract your attention and that's what brought me to Carl Pettersson and the fact that he won at Harbour Town links made me look even closer. He has a solid Open record although he hasn't played it much in recent years and in his first three attempts he was 1st, 4th and 7th after the opening days play so expect a fast start from the Swede 0.25 ew 150/1 (7 places) + 0.2 ew 110/1 Rd 1 leader

Greg Owen plies his trade in the States these days and with his very accurate game has maintained a card on either the main tour or secondary tour for the past eight years. He has had chances to win over there notably at Bay Hill and Pebble Beach where his best results have been – including a 3rd and 4th and he was 9th this year. I must admit I struggled to find the right market to back him in but he was so keen to qualify and play Lytham as it was the scene of his stunning albatross back in 2001. In the end I have gone for a small outright play and the same on round one – he was 5th in 2001 and in his last appearance in 2006 was 2nd after Thursdays play was concluded. 0.1 ew 250/1 (6 places) + 0.1 ew Rd 1 leader 200/1

Last but not least we come to the plays inspired by picking Michael Thompson in the US Open - 2nd @ 500/1 and 1st for Round One @ 250/1 (well I had to get it in!) There are two past winners of the Lytham Trophy playing this week who will hopefully be inspired by past glories on the course.
Firstly Warren Bennett, he has had an unfortunate career – tipped as being capable of winning a Major back in the 90's he has been dogged by injury which finally forced him out of the game around three years ago and into the caddy ranks. A while back he started playing again to give it one last go and he comfortably made it through final qualifying having finally gone to a coach for the first time in his life. He has a bit of Open experience and was low amateur in 1994 and although I would be shocked to see him still there on Sunday there is a chance he could throw in a couple of good rounds. 0.05 ew 1500/1 (6 places) + 0.1 ew Rd 1 leader 500/1 + 0.1 ew Top GB & Ire 250/1 + 0.1 ew Top English 150/1

Last but not least we come to the veteran Paul Broadhurst who also made it through final qualfying but who has quite an interesting history at Lytham. Apart from winning the Lytham Trophy he was leading amateur in the 1988 Open here and then in 1996 led by two strokes after the first round. If anyone was to be inspired by the venue then it would have to be Broadhurst and he is well worth a small bet in the following markets. 0.05 ew 1000/1 (6 places) + 0.1 ew 400/1 Rd 1 leader + 0.1 ew Top GB & Ire 150/1 + 0.1 ew Top English 125/1

There are a few bookmaker specials this week – first of all Stan James and Paddy Powerboth offer seven places whilst all others offer six places – avoid Coral like the plague as they are only going five.
Boyles haven't quite stretched to their offer of eight places like last year but will refund all losing bets if an Irish player wins which is a fairly generous offer whilst Victor Chandlerwill refund bets up to £50 if Wes
twood, Poulter, Garcia or Donald win.

July 16th 22.24
Well it's been a very busy past 24 hours - firstly lets wrap up yesterday and Marc Warren - a great result with the place at 150/1 but maybe it should have been better - I managed to lay as low as 1.25 on Betfair to take away a handsome profit but the win would have been so much nicer!
Anyway - prices have gradually been appearing all day for the Open Championship and I have placed the following bets on top of the antepost bets - there maybe quite a lot now but Majors throw up shocks and prices can be very generous.
Retief Goosen 0.25 ew 110/1 (7 places)
Carl Pettersson 0.25 ew 150/1 (7 places) + 0.2 ew 110/1 Rd 1 leader
Warren Bennett 0.05 ew 1500/1 (6 places) + 0.1 ew Rd 1 leader 500/1 + 0.1 ew Top GB & Ire 250/1 + 0.1 ew Top English 150/1
Paul Broadhurst 0.05 ew 1000/1 (6 places) + 0.1 ew 400/1 Rd 1 leader + 0.1 ew Top GB & Ire 150/1 + 0.1 ew Top English 125/1
Greg Owen 0.1 ew 250/1 (6 places) + 0.1 ew Rd 1 leader 200/1
July 15th 11.54
Off out for the afternoon and probably not back in time to watch the end of the Scottish Open - hopefully Marc Warren can pick up where he left off yesterday!
I haven't added anymore bets for next weeks Open Championship from Royal Lytham but you can view the antepost bets here
Don't forget further bets will be given out on Twitter @ SBIdotcom and a Newsletter will go out on Tuesday with all my previews, thoughts and bookmaker specials before being put here on the blog - if you want a copy just send Newsletter to info@sportsbettingindex.com
July 11th 21.47
I love to watch links golf and Castle Stuart does look a good course and hopefully they will be blessed with better weather to showcase the course to better effect this year.
Paul McGinley was my first pick this week as he has shown a renaissance in his game this year although he faltered a bit last weekend. Last year he was 14th here but was 2nd in the all round stats so after a slow start he certainly seemed to enjoy the course 0.3 ew 80/1 (6 places)
Marc Warren is also showing a great improvement in his game having qualified for his first Major - the US Open and indeed making the cut - it seems to have spurred him on. He is a good links player - he got his card for this year by finishing 5th in the Dunhill Links, was 4th at County Louth in 09 and at Kennemer and of course has won in his homeland before at Gleneagles. Last year he was bang out of form but opened with a 67 which included seven straight birdies so he can clearly play the course 0.3 ew 150/1 (6 places)
Johan Edfors is obviously a past winner of this event on a very different course at Loch Lomond but he is certainly capable of playing links golf. To be honest there is not a lot going for Edfors but sometimes I get a feeling a player is going to have a good week - 0.2 ew 150/1 (6 places)
Carlos del Moral was the one player who beat McGinley in the all round stats here last year and he was actually quite a good links player when he was a good amateur player.He has been in contention several times this year and really should have won in Madeira - hence the play in the different market - 0.1 win 200/1 + 0.2 ew top Continental Euro 60/1
July 11th 20.59
Only the two picks for the John Deere Classic in a weak looking field with a short priced favourite going for a "fourpeat". I expected Tim Clark to be fairly short this week and I have broken my current rule of not backing prices shorter than 50/1 because I really think he should be a 25/1 shot this week. With the exception of Stricker Clark has the best scoring average at Deere Run for those who have had three starts and came very close to winning on his debut. There is something about the week before the Open Championship that Clark likes as he has been 2nd,18th and 7th in this event but also 3rd,5th,1st and 5th in the Scottish Open in the same week. I am not concerned about his injury problems as he seems over them but his state of mind is a small worry as he was really annoyed with himself for not winning in the Travelers last time when 4th 0.6 ew 40/1
My other pick is Chez Reavie and I must admit I would have preferreda slightly bigger price but he is in good form having gone 11th,15th, was 5th here last year and seems to show some of his best form when the tour moves north in the height of summer 0.3 ew 66/1
July 11th 14.35
First up I will talk a little about the three picks from the smaller tours this week.
The newly named Web.com tour (formerly Nationwide) returns after a two week break and comes from Salt Lake City in Utah. The first pick Corbin Mills really could be anything as he makes his professional debut but he was a top amateur reaching a high of 7th in the wrold last year, I am willing to take a chance at the price - 0.2 ew 200/1 (150/1 OK). Second man in is BJ Staten who comes to Utah with some fond memories of Willow Creek. Two years ago in the pro-am he met his now wife and having got married at the end of 2011 he now lives in a house overlooking the course. He has some good results playing at altitude including a 2nd in the Mexico Open and 3rd int he Boise Open - this could be because he grew up in Colorado. The three recent missed cuts don't look great but they were all on the mark and are possibly a reaction to just losing out in the Rex Hospital Open where he had a good chance to win - 0.2 ew 100/1.
This weeks US Senior Open comes from another new course on the rotation but like the Senior PGA Championship we are again on a windy linksy course in Michigan. I know Hale Irwin is now 67 but he can still compete as witnessed by three top five finishes in Majors in the last eighteen months - including a 3rd in the Senior PGA. He believes himself he can win and played well last week at Pebble Beach when 6th. He reamins the oldest man to win a US Open at 45 - maybe he can become the oldest to win a Senior Open as well 0.2 ew 80/1.
I'll be back later with thoughts on the main two events - I am trying to split time this week with doing research for the Open next week. With that in mind there will be no newsletter this week but there will be one on Tuesday next week outlining all my thoughts on the Open Championship from Lytham. Of course it will all be detailed here on the blog but if you would like it sent first to your inbox just send Newsletter to info@sportsbettingindex.com
July 10th 20.14
I have added three more bets via Twitter today which you can find outlined below. The rest of the day has been spent looking at other tours where to be honest I have found the square root of diddly squat! - Write-ups on main tours to follow tomorrow
Scottish Open
Carlos del Moral 0.1 win 200/1 + 0.2 ew top Continental Euro 60/1
Johan Edfors 0.2 ew 150/1 (6 places)
John Deere Classic
Chez Reavie 0.3 ew 66/1
July 9th 21.27
A quick summary of bets placed so far this week - I will probably have one or two more for Scotland and one for the John Deere tomorrow
Scottish Open
Marc Warren 0.3 ew 150/1 (6 places)
Paul McGinley 0.3 ew 80/1 (6 places)
John Deere Classic
Tim Clark 0.6 ew 40/1
July 8th 22.52
What a frustrating week - Steele finishes 7th for the second year running when tipped @ 125/1 and now Se Ri Pak has finished t9th. These weeks are sent to try us!
Anyway - onto next week where we have the Scottish Open from Castle Stuart - hopefully minus the landslides this year! and the PGA tour heads to Illinois where Steve Stricker goes for four in a row at the John Deere Classic.
July 7th 13.39
Well the picks for this week seem to be as bad as the weather - damp squibs, although Steele is still doing OK in France. In the Greenbrier we are looking at three missed cuts but having looked at the market I have added a small bet on Carl Pettersson - 0.2 ew 70/1 1/4 4 (66/1 OK)
July 4th 14.17
Tiger Woods headlines the Greenbrier Classic at a fairly short price which made me think there would be some decent each way value but with only two years course experience played essentially on a very different course it has been a bit of struggle!
Main bet is Jimmy Walker as he has been tied 4th in each renewal and seems to love the area as he also won on the Nationwide tour in West Virginia. He does seem to be a horses for courses player who has also been 4th at Riviera for the last two seasons. There is an interesting little fact about how well he has played the week before the Greenbrier for the last 2 years - in 2010 he was 4th after round one with an opening 65 and last year was 2nd after Thursday in Canada on different courses. Last week he was 2nd after the first and second rounds before fading over the weekend - maybe the change in course conditions didn't suit but he seems in good nick 0.5 ew 66/1.
Next up in price order is Billy Hurley III who finally found some of his good Nationwide form from last season when 4th in the AT&T on Sunday. He put it down to finally hitting the ball well and playing close to home and revelling in the hot conditions. Whilst he has no course form he comes from neighbouring Virginia and will be well suited to the heat and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go on a good run - 0.2 ew 250/1 (200/1 OK)
Last man in is a bit of a stab in the dark - Jason Gore has also won in West Virginia - the same event as Walker and Points who was 4th here two years ago. He is 4th on the Driving Distance stats on the Web.com tour and 1st in birdies per round which should hold him in good stead this week - 0.1 ew 300/1
July 3rd 22.09
The Open de France has been a good hunting ground for me in the past with some highlights being backing Remesy at 66/1 when he won in 2004 and last year getting Khan in the places at 200/1.
In recent months a lot of the winners on the European Tour have been those who have been in contention many times but struggled to get over the winning line - including Olesen, Wiesberger, Willett and last week Donaldson and you could even include Jaidee who had never won in Europe. One type of winner often inspires another and this is one reason for picking Lorenzo Gagli this week. Last year when the Italian hit form he was going off at very short prices but has been largely out of form so far this year but last week he showed some signs of things picking up. In Ireland he was 3rd in the all round stats and played three good rounds and was 3rd at the cut. If it does herald an upturn in form then he is coming to a country where he has a great record - he has been 3/10/5 at the St Omer and 3rd in Strasbourg and on his debut in this event last year was 11th and has to be worth a small bet 0.2 ew 150/1 (125/1 OK)
I have already mentioned Danny Willett above and I really don't get why he is such a big price now he finally has a win under his belt especially when you look at his first three results at Le Golf National of 13/10/5 and last years missed cut came during a poor run - 0.3 ew 70/1
I backed Brendan Steele last year for this at 110/1 and he came 7th so I I find it strange that I can back him this year at a bigger price. Fair enough he hasn't won on the PGA tour this year but he put up a stout performance in his title defence in the Texas Open when 4th and was 5th in Phoenix. He improved throughout his performance last year and will now have some crucial course form 0.25 ew 125/1.
Last bet in France is in the first round leader market on Darren Fichardt who will be looking forward to playing in France after his win there last month. In six appearances he has a 1st and 4th after round one here and will be looking forward to playing again after a five year hiatus - 0.1 ew 150/1
July 3rd 21.20
First up a few thoughts on the two bets on the LPGA and Champions tours this week which are very straightforward. The First Tee Open comes from Pebble Beach and most players have a lot of form on the famous links but it was only four years ago that Steve Lowery won the AT&T on the main tour. He is just coming into some form and was 5th in this event last year - 0.2 ew 110/1.
The US Womens Open returns to Blackwolf Run for the first time since 1998 when a young Korean rookie Se Ri Pak changed the face of ladies golf forever by winning an epic playoff over an amateur Jenny Chuasiriporn. It was the second Major she had won that year and she now has five in total plus twenty regular tour events. Although she is not the player she was and only has one win in recent years she has actually been in pretty solid form this season and although she withdrew last week with heat exhaustion I wouldn't let that put me off as she will have such positive memories of the course - 0.4 ew 80/1
July 3rd 09.53
Below is a list of bets for this week given out on Twitter so far, I also suggested a bet on Justin Gatlin for the Olympic 100m if you can get on at 25/33 - I would have him in as third favourite and a lot shorter in the betting
Open de France
Lorenzo Gagli 0.2 ew 150/1 (125/1 OK)
Brendan Steele 0.25 ew 125/1
Danny Willett 0.3 ew 70/1
Darren Fichardt rd 1 leader 0.1 ew 150/1
Greenbrier Classic
Jimmy Walker 0.5 ew 66/1
July 2nd 09.31
A disappointing weekend in the end with no-one really troubling the judge. For those who missed it I put up a big antepost bet for the Open - 1.5 pts ew on Michael Hoey @ 200/1 (6 places) - timing is always difficult with these bets but had his putter behaved in Ireland his odds would have crashed anyway. After a poor weekend performance in theory his price should drift out again but whatever the bet stands as I have had him pencilled in and been backing him for months on the exchanges.
This week we have the Open de France from the Ryder Cup venue Le Golf National and the Greenbrier Classic plus the latest Major the on the LPGA tour the US Womens Open.
June 30th 10.35
A quick summary on how things stand heading into the weekend - in Ireland Hoey and Ilonene still hold good chances an need a good moving day today. At Congressional Gainey clearly didn't take to the course (understatement!) but Palmer got himself back into the fringes of contention whilst hopefully some of you followed my advice on Twitter that Pampling might go well. On the minor tours both Tubert and Gallacher bombed but Kevi Johnson is up there. All in all some good chances of a return - have a good weekend - keep your eye on Twitter for any antepost bets on the Open.
June 27th 20.23
The early play on Ryan Palmer on Monday (0.2 ew 66/1) was purely based on price where on earth that price came from for a player whose form reads 4/c/9/5/3 is beyond me. I also think that the place price available on Tommy Gainey is way out of line. It is ironic that someone with the nickname "two gloves" has so many third placed finishes! last year he had four and has already added another last month at the Colonial Whilst he hasn't played Congressional before his first Nationwide win came in the state of Maryland so hopefully he will have some positive vibes 0.25 ew 150/1
I couldn't resist a punt on Rory Sabbatini who ticks a lot of boxes this week. He was 2nd on his penultimate start partly due to the Tiger Woods wonder shot and played solidly last week. He was 6th at Congressional back in 2005 which had been his only start on the course before last years US Open where he was 30th. He was also 1st and 3rd at the Potomac course in Maryland in what was the forerunner to this event 0.3 ew 80/1.
Heath Slocum hasn't been playing great golf this year so far as he has struggled to put all facets of his game together with putting usually being his achiles heel but last week was different. At River Highlands he was his usual 2nd for driving accuracy but was 1st for scrambling and 3rd for putts per round. His stats at last years US Open here were very similar and he had his best finish of the season when 11th. He certainly knows how to win when given the opportunity and is worth a bet at 125/1 0.25 ew.
June 27th 14.11
A few thoughts on the three bets in the minor events this week.
NW Arkansas Championship - Stacey Lewis is the finest product from Arkansas University but Emily Tubert could prove to be a quality player in the future from the same Razorback team. She has won the US Amateur public links and several other major amateur and college events and is therefore worth a small investment - 0.1 ew 200/1 (175/1 OK)
Constellation Senior Players Championship - one from way out of left field - Jim Gallagher Jnr. He won five times on the PGA tour in the early nineties but rather lost his way towards the end of his career. At the start of his Champions tour career he was awful but he put together a little run of form in June/July last year which saw him finish 4th and 8th - the best of those coming at En Joie which he had played a lot on the main tour. No-one in the field has any great experience of the Fox Chapel golf course but Gallagher was born and raised just half an hour down the road. It won't take long to find out if he can find any form as he is first to tee off tomorrow 0.1 ew 750/1 (500/1 OK)
The Nationwide Tour also has a new venue this week at the Victoria National course in Indiana. To be honest I was going to pass but I will give six time tour winner Kevin Johnson a squeak. He has produced several of his wins when seemingly out of form and had his best finish since the opening events of the season in Wichita last week where he had won before 0.2 ew 150/1
June 26th 14.20
Busy working away on the LPGA, Nationwide and Champions tour events so just a quick summary of the bets for the AT&T National for now
Rory Sabbatini 0.3 ew 80/1
Tommy Gainey 0.25 ew 150/1
Heath Slocum 0.25 ew 125/1
June 25th 22.10
I will do a write up for the Irish Open tonight as the three players I wanted to back have been already and I am still undecided about the AT&T so that can wait til tomorrow when I have a full set of prices.
Michael Hoey is a player I wouldn't normally back at such a short price but the conditions are ripe for his fourth win in just over a year. Basically Hoey is at his best on this sort of short windy track close to the sea - just look at his wins - the Alfred Dunhill Links, Madeira, Oitavos Dunes and El Jadida. This years win was a little different but still near the coast and was windy and he has also been 2nd at East London in South Africa. I guess really it shouldn't come as a great surprise as a winner of the British Amateur at Prestwick and what interests me this week is that Royal Portrush is very close to home and he has won the North of Ireland Amateur round these links - hence the decent bet 0.8 ew 55/1 (6 places)
Gareth Maybin hasn't quite fulfilled the potential he showed early in his career but like Hoey he has won the same event around Royal Portrush. He has been rather out of form this year apart from a 7th at the Spanish Open but I think a return to home soil may well bring about a change of fortune 0.2 ew 150/1 (6 places) 125/1 OK
Last position goes to Finn Mikko Ilonen who is also a fine links golfer having won the British Amateur around Hoylake the year before Hoey, he can also lay claim to a top ten at the Open at Lytham. He has two wins on the European tour back in 2007 but has been dogged by injury in recent years. He bombed out of Open qualifying today but a couple of starts ago he was 3rd in the Nordea Masters so can still turn it on. Whilst he has no Portrush form to speak of it is interesting his first amateur win outside Scandinavia came in the West of Ireland amateur in 1999 and he is definitely worth a small investment 0.2 ew 150/1 (6 places)
June 25th 09.14
A disappointing Sunday with nothing happening from my picks - shame Webb Simpson couldn't do last Sunday what Hoffman did yesterday! I had a few pennies on Leishman when he took the clubhouse lead mainly due to the fact that I backed him twice last month. The only player I got a return from was Doak at 50/1 tied 4th in Scotland - who knows what would have happened if they had played the final round. Onto this week and we have the Irish Open from the stunning Royal Portrush course whilst the AT&T National comes from Congressional as the main two events.
June 23rd 10.31
Earlier on this week I alluded to having a bet on the Champions Tour - the player was Hale Irwin @ 150/1. I decided against it as he could easily have bombed out in round one but would still be a decent price if he played well. In fact he is t6th after yesterdays opening round and is still 66/1 (1/4 4) so I will have 0.2 ew. He played here back in 1999 in the Canadian Seniors Open and lost in a playoff and whilst he is well past his prime he was 3rd just last month in the Senior PGA and was 4th in two Senior Majors last year.
June 21st 16.01
Busy composing a Newsletter for publication tomorrow - looks like the SPOTY market will really hot up over the next month so I am looking to spot any potential value out there. To get the Newsletter delivered to your inbox simply email Newsletter to info@sportsbettingindex.com. To view past copies simply click here
June 20th 21.00
I must admit I have been a little bit stumped by the withdrawals of Every and Romero as they were my main bets of the week but if they are injured I would rather they withdrew before the off! I have a theory about the Travelers Championship that revolves around amateur players and players turning pro. The event gives out invites to top amateur players and it is quite interesting to se what happens to them. Cink made his pro debut here in 1995 and has won the event twice. Hunter Mahan first played here as an amateur missing the cut in 2000 and won seven years later and been second twice as well. JJ Henry also played as an amateur in 1998 and won eight years later as a professional. Michael Putnam was 4th in his first pro start back in 2005, Michael Thompson played well as an amateur and then last year was 4th whilst Patrick Cantlay played superby last year shooting a 60 and turns pro this week.
This was why I was keen on Matt Every this week - as he follows a similar pattern and has been in such good form this year. I really couldn't put anyone off backing Cantlay this week as he seems a huge talent or indeed top amateur Patrick Rodgers - maybe I will add them in running. Anyway all this waffling leads me onto Brian Harman who made the cut here as a 17 year old amateur eight years ago and impressively he was 1st for Driving Accuracy and 12th for GIR - only his putting let him down. He was impressive in the early part of the season and his 61 at PGA National remains one of the rounds of the year. Lately he has been disappointing and has been annoyed with himself but he has been tweeting that his game is coming around and qualified really well for the US Open. He only missed the cut by one last week and I have a feeling he maybe this weeks Michael Thompson! 0.1 ew 400/1 0.2 Top 10 33/1 & 0.1 ew Rd 1 leader 250/1.
I have also gone for JJ Henry to repeat his winning performance from 2006 as he always plays well in the state of his birth. He also nearly won last month in his adpoted state of Texas when 3rd in the Byron Nelson - he clearly likes playing in familiar surroundings. That 3rd was apparently largely down to having Mark Brooks as a caddie at Sawgrass who convinced JJ he has been underachieving on tour and I can see him putting in some strong finishes so he can repeat his Ryder Cup appearance from 2006. J Henry 0.3 ew 125/1 + 0.1 ew Rd 1 leader 100/1
June 20th 16.25
Definitely a quiet week - moreso now that Romero and Every have both pulled out of the Travelers - have added JJ Henry Round 1 leader 0.1 ew 100/1 and Brian Harman 0.1 ew 400/1 0.2 Top 10 33/1 & 0.1 ew Rd 1 leader 250/1.
First of all a few thoughts on this weeks European picks - whilst Alex Cejka wasn't initially on my radar this week I just felt his price was too big.He has had a 2nd, 5th and 6th on the course in the past and was 3rd in this event two years ago.After a couple of withdrawals in April he has made his last five cuts with some pretty low rounds thrown in. I think he is a far better player than those at a similar price 0.25 ew 100/1 (75/1 or better OK).
Second pick is David Drysdale who was 8th when this course was last used back in 2009. He has also been 4th and 11th in this event in 2009 and 2010 and comes here in great form. He was 10th at Wentowrth despite an awful third round 78 when he dropped eight shots in four holes and then was 11th at Celtic Manor. I can easily see him faltering against some of the big guns if he is up there on Sunday hence only 0.1 ew 90/1 but in those last two events he has been t4th for top GB & Ireland - hence the 0.5 ew 25/1 in that market.
I have had small nibbles on four home players in the Scottish Hydro Challenge Tour event who have all shown some form this season and who filled four of the first five places in an event at Spey Valley just seven weeks ago Chris Doak 50, Scott Henry 50, Lloyd Saltman 50 & Callum MaCaulay 80.
Back later with final thoughts on the Travelers Championship and Wichita Open.
June 19th 10.42
A quick summary of bets placed so far - there will be no more for the Travelers and one more bet for the BMW in a side market I expect - now to start work on the Wichita Open on the Nationwide Tour
BMW International
Alex Cejka 0.25 ew 100/1 (75/1 or better OK)
Travelers Championship
Matt Every 0.6 ew 80/1
Andres Romero 0.4 ew 70/1 (66/1 OK)
JJ Henry 0.3 ew 125/1
June 18th 09.34
Well what a week! Nearly hit the jackpot with Thompson and I can always rue the missed putt at 17 but he got very lucky with the tee shot at 18 which just showed pure nerves. That has got us nicely into profit for the year and it is back to the grindstone with the BMW International on the European Tour and the PGA tour travels to Connecticut for the Travelers Championship from River Highlands. We also have a pretty full shedule of events from around the world - back later when those bookmaker chappies wake up!
June 15th 21.43
Back from hols - so nice to get a 250/1 winner! and thanks for all the messages - will update tipping results page tomorrow - in the meantime cmon the two Michaels - Thompson and not forgetting Allen!
June 13th 12.33
Just got time to put the bets up for the St Omer Open
Jose Lima 0.4 ew 40/1
Robert Dinwiddie 0.3 ew 70/1
Jamie Elson 0.4 ew 125/1 Sportingbet.com.au 50/1 will have to do if you can't get the 125/1!!
June 12th 21.41
Ah the joys of going on holiday without full internet access - still all the research was done beforehand so it is only a case of getting the prices for the bets I wanted to place for the US Open. I am quite happy with the two antepost bets on Oosthuizen and Clark as I think the tough test will suit and the three players I have added this week all have connections to Olympic Club. Colt Knost won the US Amateur here in 2007 and already has a couple of top five finishes this season and whilst he is totally out of form at the moment the venue could easily reinvigorate him. In the final of that US Amateur he beat Michael Thompson who also has a number of top five finishes since he turned pro. The US Open often throws up surprises simply because it is such a stern test and after Rory ran rampant last season I have a feeling this year will prove ultra tough. I wouldn't normally advise backing a senior player in a Major but I simply cannot resist backing Michael Allen this week. He has been desperate to play an event at Olympic Club as this was the course where he learnt to play golf and he knows every blade of grass. He missed out on the last two Majors played here but managed to get through qualifying last week and is ecstatic. He reckons even at the age of 53 he is playing the best golf of his career and leads the Champions Tour Money list and whilst a win is a very tall order he could well be the Rocco Mediate surprise this year
Colt Knost
0.1 ew 500/1 (6 places)
0.1 ew top American 250/1
0.1 ew Round 1 leader 300/1
Michael Thompson
0.1 ew 500/1 (6 places)
0.1 ew Top American 200/1
0.1 ew Round 1 leader 250/1
0.2 win top 10 33/1
Michael Allen
0.1 ew 1000/1 (6 places)
0.1 ew Round 1 leader 300/1
June 11th 22.02
I have limited internet access today - first US Open bets up on Twitter @SBIdotcom - more tomorrow
June 8th 23.55
Last post for a few days as am off on holiday tomorrow morning for a week. I have just added Robert Garrigus for the St Jude - he should have won it two years ago and has a habit of being a slow starter and coming late over the weekend - 0.2 ew 125/1 (1/5 4)
On the subject of next week and the US Open we already have Tim Clark 200/1 and Louis Oosthuizen 66/1 in the book and I have finished researching. I will probably be back on here on Tuesday night once all the markets have formed with further bets and poosibly a look at the St Omer Open in Europe. Until then - hopefully we have a bit of luck over the weekend - and I need a break!!
June 6th 23.03
Right - just time for a quick summary of bets placed firstly for the Fedex
Ryuji Imada - when he won the AT&T at Sugarloaf he had similar course form and went off at 33/1. Admittedly he was in better form but there have been glimpses of better things of late 0.2 ew 175/1
Chris Kirk - local lad who now seems to be coming to terms with being a Dad and his form has improved in recent weeks. He already has a win and a 2nd place finish on the Nationwide tour in his home state 0.3 ew 80/1
Bob Estes - his event form is well documented and he has shown in the last 12 months he can still be competitive on a suitable course and he won his US Open sectional qualifier on Monday 0.3 ew 80/1
Tim Herron - like Estes he qualified easily for the US Open and also has some pretty good course form to boot with a 2nd and a couple of 3rds including last year 0.25 ew 125/1
Dicky Pride - almost forgot about Dicky who is having a great season with a 5th, 7th and 2nd. Southwind is the venue of his only PGA tour victory way back in 1994 0.2 ew 150/1
Scott Stallings - another local guy and he led last week after the opening round and have a feeling he may come out and go low early again rd 1 leader 0.1 ew 125/1
In the Wegmans LPGA Championship I have a feeling IK Kim will be out to dispell the horror of the missed one foot putt in the last Major and she seems upbeat ahead of this one. She has a great record at Locust Hill and she represents some value at 40/1 - 0.5 ew
The Nationwide Tour travels down to Mexico and a few who qualified for the US Open have withdrawn but Scott Langley is trying to maintain his form and the top amateur from last year could reward backers and I wouldn't be surprised to see him win at some point this year - 0.3 ew 66/1
June 6th 21.54
Apologies for no write ups but been celebrating daughters 6th birthday - family has to come first sometimes! A quick summary of bets added today
Fedex St Jude Classic
Dicky Pride 0.2 ew 150/1
Scott Stallings rd 1 leader 0.1 ew 125/1
Wegmans LPGA
IK Kim 0.5 ew 40/1
Mexico Open
Scott Langley 0.3 ew 66/1
June 5th 15.41
Quite pushed for time this week as I am off on holiday on Saturday and trying to research next weeks events as well including the second Major of the year the US Open - so previews will be short but sweet this week. I will still be posting tips next week but want to get all the research done in advance.
Anyway - just a couple of picks for the Nordea Masters in the form of South African Jaco Van Zyl and Damien McGrane. Van Zyl is a bit like Jaidee last week - the Thai hadn't won outside Asia and van Zyl hasn't won outside South Africa. He was going as well as anyone bar Noren last year before being blown away in the wind on the final day. He has had some good results this season and bounced back to a bit of form in Wales last week and in a field that lacks strength in depth the early 80/1 or 66/1 is good value.
McGrane has played here both years at Bro Hof Slot posting an 8th and 16th (t1st and t5th in the GB & Ireland market. He has laready posted a 2nd in the Trophee Hassan this year and whilst he isn't the biggest hitter I still think his course form will see him through on a suitably breezy course.
June 5th 12.55
A quick summary of bets so far - don't forget they tee off in Sweden tomorrow
Nordea Masters
Damien McGrane - 0.25 ew 100/1 + 0.25 ew top GB & Ire 22/1
Jaco Van Zyl - 0.4 ew 80/1
Fedex St Jude
Ryuji Imada 0.2 ew 175/1
Chris Kirk 0.3 ew 80/1
Bob Estes 0.3 ew 80/1
Tim Herron 0.25 ew 125/1
June 3rd 09.55
It's been a few days since the last post - just to note aan antepost bet placed via Twitter - Open Championship Dustin Johnson 0.3 ew 50/1. Looking at todays final rounds - Wales has been poor with the exception of McEvoy to be top English player - will probably go right down to the wire. In the US Moore is certainly not out of things - especially as we got 6 places and Svoboba needs a Swafford like round!
Next week we have the Nordea Masters from the Bro Hof Slot - note this is a Wednesday start and in the US the Fedex St Jude headlines from the Southwind club.
May 31st 10.05
Brad Fritsch was going to be a decent bet this week but after he "popped" a rib on Monday I have reduced stakes - even though he says he is fine. He has homefield advantage this week having lived next door to the Wakefield Plantation for the past five years. He last played this event in 2008 and 2009 and played well for the first three rounds. That is a bit like his last start when he led entering to final round but just couldn't convert anything on the back nine - eventually finishing 5th for the second time this year. He says he is learning all the time from these near misses so is worth risking in front of a home crowd 0.2 ew 70/1
Andrew Svoboba more or less has his PGA tour card sealed for next year having twice finished 2nd this season already. It wouldn't surprise me to see him get that elusive win and it may well come here where he made his first appearance on the Nationwide tour 0.3 ew 60/1
Last man up is veteran DJ Brigman who has had a poor year so far but shot three really good rounds at the BMW pro-am a couple of weeks ago to finish 8th. It's his record at Wakefield Plantation that makes him of interest - in four starts he has missed the cut twice but finished 4th on the other two occasions 0.2 ew 125/1
May 30th 16.34
Ryan Moore has been top of my Memorial list for a while and fortunately was available at a price I was happy to take ie over 50/1! He has been in excellent form over the last few months with a 4th, 5th and 8th in decent events and now comes to an event which he proclaims to be his favourite of the year.This is borne out in his results at Muirfield Village where he can boast a 2nd, 5th and 10th in six starts. In good form on a course he loves and plays well the 55/1 wasn't hard to resist 0.5 ew
Mark Wilson has not been playing great of late but this bet is really all about price. He tends to play certain events well and has been 7th and 3rd here in the last three years when in a similar vein of form. Bearing in mind he is now a five time winner on tour the 125/1 is generous especially with six places on offer in a reduced field 0.4 ew
The play on Brandt Jobe is more on the generous place part of the bet as the last two times he has teed up here he has been 2nd and 4th. His accurate game is clearly suited to the course and whilst I would be very surprised to see him win getting 30/1 for the top six is too big to miss - 0.2 ew 125/1
Moving on to the pick on the Champions Tour in the Principal Charity Classic - Steve Pate. He kicked off his Champions tour career a year ago when 8th in the Senior PGA and the following week was 9th here at Glen Oaks. A similar pattern is emerging as he was 10th last week and whilst he hasn't troubled the judge yet this is the first time he has got to play a course twice. It was only two years ago he won on the Nationwide Tour and in a weakish field this maybe his best chance to date 0.2 ew 80/1
May 30th 12.18
I have gradually come to the conclusion that betting golfers under 50/1 is bad for my wallet - it's just a personal thing and if I was to pick four or five of them a week I would be OK but picking just one out from that price range leads to losses. You might ask why I have written that this week - well Larrazabal headed my list this week and at the opening 40/1 I was tempted but he has to be passed over - especially after his woeful back nine 43 at Walton Heath on Monday. Instead I have backed five at bigger prices
Edoardo Molinari - also played poorly on Monday but pulled out after eighteen holes, he has been consistently been playing OK without shooting the lights out but a return to Celtic Manor could just be what the doctor ordered. He is bound to have fond memories of playing in the Ryder Cup and was 4th here when he last visited in 2010 0.4 ew 50/1
Julien Quesne did exactly the same as Molinari on Monday but it doesn't put me off. I don't see why a player who has already won this season and played consistently well in his other starts should be 100/1 in this field - 0.25 ew
Jeev Singh has a fantastic scoring average around the Twenty Ten course averaging just 69.9 blows despite a second round 79 last year - in his previous two efforts he finished 10th and 6th. His form has again been consistent but unspectacular but returning to a course he can go low then the 90/1 is fair value 0.25 ew
I toyed with Magnus Carlsson but as a non winner I just couldn't pull the trigger so instead plumped for past winner Jeppe Huldahl. To be honest he hasn't achieved a lot since that win but he did lose in a playoff on the Challenge Tour a couple of weeks ago and at 250/1 it doesn't take much to find out! 0.1 ew
Last but not least is Richard McEvoy who I must admit I would struggle to pick outright but he seems to like this place finishing 9th and 12th the last two years. The best market to back him is the weak looking top English where he has been 1st and 3rd and when he was 3rd Donald and Rock beat him - 0.4 ew 28/1
May 29th 20.56
Added a couple more bets this afternoon - in Wales Richard McEvoy to be top English player - 0.4 ew 28/1 plus on the Champions Tour Principal Charity Classic Steve Pate 0.2 ew 80/1. Back tomorrow with thoughts on all picks and any selections for Nationwide Tour Rex Hospital Open.
On another quick note before I sign off a mate of mine is cycling across Spain to raise money for Help for Heroes - he is doing a blog here He did John O'Groats to Lands End a few years ago and raised thousands for a local childrens hospice so he is an all round good bloke. If you make money from any tips on here or have done recently it would be nice if you could donate a few quid on his donation page
May 29th 12,59
A quick summary of bets strck so far - looks like being a busy week!
Wales Open
Edoardo Molinari 0.4 ew 50/1
Julien Quesne 0.25 ew 100/1
Jeev Singh 0.25 ew 90/1 
Jeppe Huldahl 0.1 ew 250/1
Memorial Tournament
Mark Wilson 0.4 ew 125/1 (6 places)
Ryan Moore 0.5 ew 55/1 (6 places)
Brandt Jobe 0.2 ew 125/1 (6 places)
May 28th 09.21
A very poor week last week with only Lima being the saving grace in the Telenet Trophy by finishing 3rd - sometimes I really should stick to the smaller events! I placed my first antepost bet on the US Open on Louis Oosthuizen who seemed to turn things around off the tee last week and shouldn't be 66/1 - 0.4 ew. Don't forget these tips are sent out on Twitter @ SBIdotcom.
This week we have the Memorial Tournament from Muirfield Village whilst the European Tour is in Wales at the last Ryder Cup venue of Celtic Manor. We also have a whole host of other events all round the globe to get stuck into.
May 23rd 12.28
My apologies for being a tad late with my thoughts on the Crowne Plaza - I got tied up doing other things and looking at the Euro Challenge tour event - the Telenet Trophy - more on that at the bottom of this post.
Bryce Molder is a bit more of a hunch than anything else and the pick is based mainly on his scoring average at Colonial where he has only played six rounds - a m/c and a 5th. His average score works out at 67.33 which is better than anyone else playing including Zach Johnson. His win in the Frys.com last year came two years after he had placed 6th in that event (albeit a different course) and also his win on the Nationwide Tour came two years after he had placed 5th at that event - maybe it's a good omen! 0.3 ew 80/1
I will stick with Leishman again this week as he really gave it a good try last week and but for a short missed putt on the 17th on Sunday he played quite well in contention. We still have the Texas angle on our side and whilst he was only 44th last year on his debut he was 7th with a round to go 0.3 ew 70/1.
James Driscoll intrigues me this week as this is the month he seems to come alive. His top 5 strike rate for all events on both tours is 5.2% and top ten 9.7% - in May this rises to 15.6% and 28.1% - that is quite a big difference. This year unusually he already has a pair of top ten finishes to his name. A lot of those good finishes have been in Texas and he will be very pleased with his form on Monday at the Open qualifier in the Lone Star State where he was one of the men who made it through the playoff to qualify for the second time. His form here is not exceptional but he has shot some low rounds - 0.25 ew 125/1 + 0.5 top 10 12/1.
In the Telenet Trophy I have found a few snippets of info which has led me to bet a couple but these are not official bets as I doubt many will get on. Joachim B Hansen is a talented young Dane and won a junior event here a few years ago and Jose Lima holds the jt course amateur record with Colsaerts. I have backed both at 125/100 and 80/66.
 
May 22nd 15.08
Marcus Fraser had a pretty solid record at Wentworth before arriving last year with some very low rounds but last year he seemed to find the changes to his liking and produced his best ever showing when 4th. He has maintained a good level of form for a while now since he was 2nd in both the Australian PGA and Australian Masters before Christmas. He has recently finished 6th and 3rd in Asia and at the price is well worth a good bet 0.5 ew 100/1 (6 places) 80/1 fine.
Ben Curtis was top of my list for this week because I don't think anyone playing this week can match his current form on the PGA tour where has gone 1/13/5/2. Anyone would think his early price of 40/1 was based on the fact that he no course form - incorrect as he has played here quite a few times - his last one being before the changes in 2009 when he was 6th. I think that amongst the favourites he is the best priced of the bunch this week and even at the shortened price of 33/1 is still woth a bet - 0.5 ew 40/1 (6 places)
Now we go way out left field with Paul McGinley but this event has a habit of throwing out shock results - who on earth predicted any of Simon Khan, Andrew Oldcorn, Scott Drummond or Ignacio Garriodo? The Irishman says he is now pretty much recovered from his dodgy knee problems which have beset him over the past few years and it showed in his last start in Korea where he led the all round stats and finished 7th. His last good finish before that was also on another Harry Colt treelined course at Hilversumsche in September when 6th. He can boast some good form here in the past - he was 2nd back in 2005 and in 2008 he led by four at the cut before blowing up in round three and eventually finished 10th. He probably doesn't have many good finishes left in him but maybe this could be his swansong?! 0.2 ew 300/1 (6 places)
May 22nd 10.15
Again a quick summary of Crowne Invitatioal bets - don't forget you can always follow on Twitter @ SBIdotcom. Back this afternoon with thorough thoughts.
James Driscoll 0.25 ew 125/1 + 0.5 top 10 12/1
Bryce Molder 0.3 ew 80/1
Marc Leishman 0.3 ew 70/1
May 21st 18.37
A quick summary of bets for the BMW PGA Championship placed so far - back tomorrow with thoughts and tips for Crowne Plaza
Ben Curtis 0.5 ew 40/1
Marcus Fraser 0.5 ew 100/1
Paul McGinley 0.2 ew 300/1
May 20th 23.07
Came up just shy in the end with Leishman but the place brings a profit for the week and on the Nationwide Tour Delahoussayne just couldn't find anything on the back nine - back tomorrow!
May 20th 09.58
A slightly disappointing day yesterday with main bet Delahoussaye bogeying the last two holes but he is still in a good place so with home course advantage hopefully he can press on in the BMW - I wouldn't write off the chances of Hicks and Gomez in that event and personally have had a small saver on them at 66/1. In the Byron Nelson I lost count of how many times Leishman found water - I think it was three, but he is still in with a shout - all in all it will be "fun" today.
Next week we have one of the flagship events on the European Tour with the BMW Championship from Wentworth whilst the PGA tour stays in Texas for the Crowne Plaza Invitational from Colonial.
May 16th 14.17
The Nationwide Tour returns this week with the BMW pro-am and I am sticking largely to the principle that gave us the winner two weeks ago - local knowledge.
Brent Delahoussaye lives in Greenville and his home course is the host course this week the Thornblade golf course - indeed he even holds the course record. This year the Greenville Club is added to the rotation so he will have a certain advantage of knowing that course. His form in the event shows a steady improvement culminating in a 4th last year. Don't be put off by his two outings on this tour this season which were both missed cuts as he has also been playing on the Egolf Tarheel tour where he has a win and a 4th in his home state and currently sits 3rd on that money list - 0.75 ew 70/1
One place above Delahoussaye on that money list sits another Clemson Tiger - David May who has also won an event. May was a very good amateur collegiate player and in his first ever Nationwide event was 13th in Georgia which gets him in this week. He impressed that week as he headed the GIR stats hitting 87.5%. With some useful local knowledge I wouldn't be surprised to see him improve on that finish - 0.2 ew 90/1
The third Clemson Tiger on my list is Ben Martin who won his second start as a pro on the Egolf tour in 2010 and went on to get his card at Q School that year by finishing 2nd. He failed to keep his card although he had some good finishes (including a 6th at Reno) and has struggled a little on his drop down to the Nationwide Tour. However he did lead the all round stats at the Stonebrae Championship and back in comfortable surroundings he may surprise 0.15 ew 200/1.
I will also have a bet on Nicholas Thompson who was 2nd in this event in 2007 (albeit on a different set of courses). His finishes this season don't quite reflect his stats - he tops the ball striking for the year but has been let down a bit by the putter. I have a feeling he maybe inspired by the results of various Georgia alumni and wouldn't be surprised to see him up there on Sunday 0.3 ew 60/1
May 15th 17.01
It is not the strongest ever field assembled for this weeks Byron Nelson Championship and of those at the top of the market only Carl Pettersson makes any appeal but his pre start price is about right so I may play him in running. Instead I have gone for three rags!
Harrison Frazar is my main fancy and returns to his home event for the first time as a PGA tour winner as he won the St Jude Classic the week after finishing 14th here last year. The Dallas born and bred player would love to win this event named after the great Texan Byron Nelson and he did come close back in 1998 when he was 2nd. The course was revamped ready for the start of the 2008 event and Frazar played a large part in the redesign and has improved with every start since mc/45/16/14. He admits he doesn't tend to play his best golf until the season hits May as he takes a while to warm up so I take the last two cuts made as a positive sign. Admittedly he started off the season in fine fettle finishing 5th and 2nd in Hawaii but he was really geared up for those events having fianlly qualified for the Champions event on Maui. I think at a three figure price he is well worth backing - 0.5 ew 125/1
Marc Leishman has only one win on the lower Nationwide Tour but it came in the state of Texas and there is something about the lone star state that brings out the best in the Australian. It all boils down to being able to putt when he hits Texas - he usually turns into one of the best putters of the week - even in Houston earlier this year he was number one putter. At Las Colinas he has been 8th and 12th but struggled in the really windy conditions last year. Two of the four winners since the course changed have been Australian - maybe it's time for a third.0.25 ew 110/1
Arjun Atwal loves the heat (unsurprisingly) and it is a large factor in him finishing 8th and 7th in the last two years. Last year it was his best result of the season and most of his other good results have come in the heat of the Deep South. I have found his recent results quite encouraging - 24th at Quail Hollow with one poor round letting him down whilst at Sawgrass he was actually playing pretty well til a horror finish in his second round saw him miss the cut. It is a pick based largely on his good course form hence his price is lower bt I still think he is worth the risk - 0.25 ew 150/1
Now time to finalise bets for the BMW Charity pro-am Nationwide event where I have a strong pick!
May 14th 21.32
I have backed three for the Byron Nelson - all pretty big prices this week - will give reasons why tomorrow
Harrison Frazar 0.5 ew 125/1
Marc Leishman 0.25 ew 110/1
Arjun Atwal 0.25 ew 150/1
Best prices available here
May 13th 12.17
A promising start to the week - mainly by Velasco and O'Hair but one stood still and the other went quickly backwards. In Madeira if Santos wins I will be very annoyed as I back him here most years and it was a toss up between him and Grillo. On the PGA tour we have an outside chance of a top six finish from Kaymer and I have added Johnson Wagner (0.2 ew 150/1 1/5 3) as I can easily see someone catching two dodgy leaders and if Na wins I will send him a nasty Tweet as we were on last week!
Next week looks pretty quiet to me - I hate matchplay as a betting formula which leaves us with the Byron Nelson Championship and an interesting looking BMW pro-am on the Nationwide tour.
May 8th 19.30
I must admit Martin Kaymer was not on my original list of players to back at Sawgrass this week but I was simply drawn to his price. When on song Kaymer is one of the best young players in the World and when you look at the price is Rory six times more likely to win? Kaymer finally made a cut at Augusta which would have pleased him - the course really doesn't suit and is a Major and WGC Champion. Maybe he is such a big price becase of his course form but he has improved with every start 56/34/19 and at the odds available I think he is worth a play 0.3 ew 66/1 (6 places)
Sean O'Hair was definitely high up on my list as he has been a model of consitency since his win in July. His form at Sawgrass is probably better than it at first looks - last year he was 19th when way out of form - he had missed his previous five cuts coming in. Back in 2007 he stood on the 17th tee on Sunday two back of Mickelson and knowing anything could happen - sadly it all went wrong for him and he took a quadruple bogey seven and dropped to 11th. I think he is a better player now than back then with his swing changes now firmly embedded and that has led to the consistency in his game. At 100/1 (6 places) he really should give us a good run for our money - 0.4 ew
In the last two weeks we have seen two tour "virgins" winning on courses where they respectively led the two year course form averages. This week the Players Championship throws up another candidate who replicates those statistics in the form of Chris Stroud. Whilst I don't think he is anywhere near as good as Fowler or Dufner we are getting him at 125/1. He has plenty of top five and top ten finishes to his name and appears to play the same courses well year in year out and has been 10th and 12th here. He admits his season never normally gets started til now as he doesn't play well on the West Coast and looks forward to the warmer temperatures at this time of year. He describes Sawgrass as similar to the Woodlands course he grew up on and it simply suits his eye. I must admit to hoping for a bigger price so have been tempered slightly on the size of bet - 0.25 ew (6 places)
May 8th 15.18
The Madeira Island Open has been kind to me over the years and twice I have backed the winner - Hoey last year at 45/1 and Hanell at 200/1. I really could make a good case for a lot of the market leaders and Dredge, Forsyth, Orr and Brier really catch my eye but I just can't pull the trigger at the prices. I accept that Dredge and Forysth have won here before but they don't contend very often and Brier hasn't won in five years and Orr in twelve! So instead I shall cast my net a little further down.
Seve Benson won last time out in Kenya on a trciky tough layout - much the same as he will face this week. That win will hopefully get his career back on track after it was interrupted in 2010 by a bad back injury. He had two wins on the Challenge Tour back in 2008 and his best ever finish on the European Tour was when 4th in 2009 on the island links course of Pinx. He has no course form but it should suit his game and is obviously in good current form - at 50/1 he is well worth a play 0.4 ew.
Jamie Elson did us a favour back in January when 2nd in the Joburg Open but has struggled to get into events since - with the re rank he should now get in a lot more. Last year he had three top five finishes - again in the Joburg Open, in Sicily and then he was runner-up in this event. Although this weeks event is on a different corse to last years he does have some experience when 25th in his rookie year back in 04. He has been itching to play tournament golf again although he hasn't been totally redundant of late as he announced last week he is to become a father. That maybe all that's needed to spur him on to success 0.4 ew 50/1
Alvaro Velasco is a talented player who sadly rarely shows it on the golf course but there are a few hints which make him worth following this week. He has good course form - a 5th place in his only appearance in 2008. He also won on the Tecina course on Il Goemra (an island not a million miles away in the Canaries) and a couple of weeks ago was 9th in the Sicilian Open. Three hints that make him worth a small bet in my mind 0.2 ew 100/1
Lastly one from leftfield in the shape of young Argentinian Emiliano Grillo who was a top amateur player before turning pro at the end of 2011. He made it throguh Q school finishing 8th and is the second youngest player on tour. He hasn't played exceptionally with a 10th in the Africa Open his best finish but he did make the cut at the Puerto Rico Open on the PGA tour and I don't think many in this field would be capable of that. Goya did exactly the same as that before securing the title in 2009 so maybe Grillo can become the third Argentinian winner in six years - 0.2 ew 150/1
May 7th 16.11
I have done the three bets below for the Players Championship - notified on Twitter - now onto the main event of the week for me - the Madeira Islands Open lol!
Martin Kaymer 0.3 ew 66/1 (6 places)
Sean O'Hair 0.4 ew 100/1 (6 places)
Chris Stroud 0.25 ew 125/1 (6 places)
Full range of prices available here
May 6th 21.54
It was nice to see Kjeldsen finish t2nd today in Spain - it was even nicer to see Hudson Swafford surge through the field with a stunning 62 including holing from the bunker at the eighteenth for a winning birdie and a great 66/1 winner to boot!
Really looking forward to next week with two of my favourite events - the Players Championship from Sawgrass and the Madeira Island Open
May 5th 10.26
Last night I tipped Soren Kjeldsen in Spain on Twitter (SBIdotcom) 0.5 ew 20/1 (1/4 4) and he is still 16/1 this morning. That is only half the price he was to start with and he is bang up there in contention.
At the Wells Fargo Bill Haas was awful, Kevin Na clearly DOES have a problem and Garrigus got himself up there only to go backwards. I suggested yesterday that Arjun Atwal was worth keeping an eye on - the last four winners of the Wyndham in North Carolina are Simpson, Moore, Atwal and Pettersson who have all played well this week. Atwal is putting really well and is probably worth a bet - personally I would take the 250+/20 on Betfair but will put up at 0.2 ew 125/1 (1/5 4) As I have been guilty of premature tipulation of late George McNeill is probably worth a saver at 150+ on Betfair just in case!
On the Nationwide Tour Hudson Swafford was going really well until a final hole double bogey but still holds very chance whilst Jeff Freeman was going well until finding water at seventeen and taking a double.
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May 2nd 13.56
A top class field has assembled for the Wells Fargo Championship and the chances are that tour rookies will struggle on the tough course where I think course experience is vital. Main pick is Bill Haas who has now won four times in the past two years and for him this is a "home" game.His stats never seem to be particularly impressive but he just seems to be able to get the job done somehow! He has twice been 4th here so has some positive vibes - 0.6 ew 45/1.
Second man in is Kevin Na who like Jacquelin is also on the drift - maybe because he withdrew from the Texas Open with a supposed stiff back. I sort of have my doubts and don't think he really wanted to play that event after his horrendous 16 the year before and maybe he was pressurised into playing by sponsors - he certainly got a lot of airtime! Before that he was in top form and already has three top five finishes this year. Given that he has been 14th and 5th here the last two years there is certainly a lot of value in the place part 0.25 ew 66/1
It is unusual to be able to back a player at 200 on a Monday and lay 80 on a Tuesday but that's what I managed with Robert Garrigus as everyone and his dog has jumped on.The big hitter already has two runner up berths this year and has a solid bank of form at Quail Hollow including a top ten last year - 0.25 ew 100/1
Ken Duke - worth a bet in the top ten market - 0.5 11/1 as he already has three similar finishes this year from just twelve starts. He has also been 7th and 14th here before so is worth betting in that specific market - I don't think he has the nerve to actually win though.
On Betfair Rory Sabbatini has drifted to a very backable price at 180/190 as he has twice been 3rd here and can find his form from nowhere.
May 2nd 12.37
The Open de Espana brings the European tour back home and hopefully we will start to see a bit more consistency from players. My main tip is for a player who didn't bother travelling to the Far East and therefore should be fresher than most - Raphael Jacquelin. Stangely he has done nothing but drift on Betfair and I really don't know why. He is now a three time winner on tour having won in Sicily last year and he has a great record in Spain. His first tour victory came in the Madrid Open in 2005 on a course he had been 12th and 4th before. He has been 8th twice in the Spanish Open before and then 3rd in this event on this course in 2010. He has two top tens at Valderrama and in the last two renditions of the Andalucian Open he has been 4th and then 5th this year. In total his top 5 strike rate in Spain is 14% and top 10 25% - what's not to like?! I have staked 0.5 ew 66/1 (6 places) and I would suggest backing him on Betfair at a very big 100+ - he is first to tee off tomorrow and could be a great trade.
Julien Quesne has impressed me a lot this season and knows how to win - in the last few years he has amassed four Alps Tour wins, two on the Challenge Tour and then his maiden win in Spain on the main tour in March. Despite struggling with the grainy greens in Asia he still managed to finish well and his long straight driving should be well suited here - 0.3 ew 100/1
Just one little note on the round one leader market - Steven O'Hara has a good early record on this course and occasionally pops up in round one - I couldn't put anyone off having a few quid each way at 200/1.
May 2nd 12.14
Bets completed - time for some comments - first of all the Nationwide Tour and the Stadion Classic. Last year Georgia Bulldog Russell Henley won on his own University of Georgia course whilst still an amateur - this year I will go for another Bulldog in the shape of the wonderfully named Hudson Swafford. He has caught my eye on a few occasions this year with some really good rounds and just needs to put four together so with home advantage this could be his week - 0.4 ew 66/1. I was also tempted by Richard Scott who is also a Georgia alumni and who was 4th last week but he has been a pro now for six or seven years and has hardly set the world alight plus the course has been changed since he was at University.
On the Champions Tour we finally get to see the Q school champion from November Jeff Freeman who has only just turned 50 and is now eligible to play. Whilst it is rare for players to win on their Champions Tour debut there have been five in the last five years and Freeman will have been itching to get going. He is only worth a small bet - 0.1 ew 200/1 as he wasn't a top player in the past and make sure you don't confuse him with elder brother Robin who Monday qualified!
May 1st 12.12
A quick post with bets so far, I will probably have one more bet in a side market at the Wells Fargo and will now look at all the smaller tours - if you want to follow tips as they are posted live then follow on Twitter at SBIdotcom
Open de Espana
Raphael Jacquelin 0.5 ew 66/1 (6 places)
Julien Quesne 0.3 ew 100/1
Wells Fargo Championship
Kevin Na 0.25 ew 66/1
Bill Haas 0.6 ew 45/1
Robert Garrigus 0.25 ew 100/1
April 30th 09.31
Well I wonder what place Rollins would have placed had I backed him top 5 - probably 6th! However on the psotive side the changes I have implemented showed a reward in the first week and added to the London Marathon gains last week things are definitely looking up. Time to crack on with research for this week - with Rory and Tiger heading affairs at the Wells Fargo there could well be some excellent each way value this week
April 29th 12.08
Just a quick update - with Rollins in 3rd and Lexi Thompson finally finding her putting stroke to rise to 6th hopefully we will get a return today. The one thing which worries me is that Rollins has been 3rd twice here before entering the final round and ywice has made a pigs ear of things! Although Dufner is leading I still don't think he was a bet at the short odds he was at the outset.
Next week the European tour returns to the mainland for the Open de Espana and the PGA tour moves to North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship from Quail Hollow
April 25th 20.40
Sorry for the delay in giving my thoughts on the Zurich Classic but here they are!
There are some very strange prices about this week where some are very short due to good course form whilst others who also have shown a liking for TPC Louisiana are big prices. Jason Dufner seems remarkably short for someone who has yet to win and has often shown a real problem over the weekend getting the job done. I will admit my first pick Charles Howell III has often been guilty of not crossing the winning line more often than he should but at least he has done it twice. He is on record as saying he loves this event and has always supported it as he was given a sponsors exemption when he first came on tour. He was 7th, 5th and 2nd at the old venue English Turn and has also shown a liking for the new venue - 2nd in 09 and 4th heading into the final round last year.mainly due to some really good putting (something he usually has a problem with). He comes into this week in really solid form this year and at an event he really wants to win and has shown he can play then despite reservations he has to be backed - 0.4 ew 50/1
I really don't get the price of George McNeill this week - we were on him at 55/1 when he won a weaker event in Puerto Rico - an event in which he was 5th last year so why on earth is he 125/1 in an event he was 6th last year? He was also 2nd twice last year and that just about sums it up - I just don't understand the price!! 0.5 ew 125/1
John Rollins has three PGA titles to his name but he has always struggled to cross the winning line here in Louisiana - in 02 he was 2nd heading into Sunday and finished 16th (different course) and in 09 and 11 here he was 3rd entering the final round - indeed he could be a good player to back and lay. He has been in pretty good form this season and his stats have been very good for a while - maybe he can take a leaf out of Ben Curtis' book and cross the winning line for the first time in a while.0.25 ew 100/1
A quick note about Jim Renner on the Nationwide Tour - whilst he has no course form at Kinderlou Forest his big hitting should be well suited. He missed his first four cuts this year but has been 9th and 11th the last two events and for a man who was 4th and 5th on the PGA tour last season then he could prove a decent bet in this company - 0.2 ew 100/1
April 24th 15.22
A quick look at the two bets I have put up in the last few hours - firstly in the Ballantines Championship. I have gone for Robert Jan Derksen and feel the top Euro market is the way to go with him as he rarely troubles the judge! Last year he was t3rd in this category when finishing 13th overall, he improved in every round which was hardly a surprise as he spent the early part of the week in bed ill and never saw the course until he teed off. The two years prior to that he was 1st and t1st in this category when the event was played on the Pinx course - he clearly likes the area. Add in a 2nd in China, a 3rd in Hong Kong and 4th in India in recent times and it becomes clear he seems to save his best for Asia these days. His game is in good nick overall and he is worth a bet in this category - top Continental European 0.75 e/w 14/1 (1/4 3).
I will have a rare dabble on the LPGA tour this week on Lexi Thompson who I tipped in this event last year at 66/1. She was tied for the lead heading into the final round last year before back to back double bogeys at the 14th and 15th stopped her and she slipped to 19th. Since then she has won her first LPGA event in this very state - Alabama on a course she had also played before and then won on the European Tour in Dubai - again where she had course experience. I think the 40/1 price tag is pretty generous now she has won twice and probably feels the course owes her one - 0.5 e/w.
Back later with Zurich thoughts once I have Nationwide sorted.
April 24th 10.12
Bets below are what have been posted on Twitter so far @ SBIdotcom, I have one for the Ballantines and ditto for the LPGA but not on yet - not looked at Nationwide yet
Charles Howell III 0.4 ew 50/1
George McNeill 0.5 ew 125/1
John Rollins 0.25 ew 100/1 (try and get 6 places Bodog)
April 23rd 11.41
A good day yesterday with the marathon - there had been a big gamble all week on Kipsang mainly due to readers on here - he was backed in from 8/1 to 3/1 jt favourite and ran away with it and to complete a good result e/w tip Kebede came 3rd at 20/1. I wish there were more opportunities like that as the golf was yet again poor. I guess in hindsight I should not have got involved in China and Palmer screwed up any chance he had on his first hole yesterday. Onto this week and we have the Ballantines from South Korea and the Zurich Classic from Louisiana.
April 20th 21.27
Over the years I have done rather well betting in marathons where very few are priced up each year, in 2007 Catherine Ndereba was an each way steal in the World Championships and I inspired a gamble that saw her backed down from 9/1 to 7/2 and win comfortably. In 2009 in the New York City Marathon I tipped Meb Keflezighi at 100/1 who went on to win and in last years London rendition Mary Keitany was tipped up early at 9/1.
After some solid research this year in the mens race I decided it was probably between six athletes and priced up a tissue which was as follows – I have added the comments as well
Patrik Makau – World Record holder who finished 3rd last year having fallen – would have gone closer if not for that fall – a worthy favourite 3/1
Wilson Kipsang - the dark horse - has run four marathons – was 3rd in the first and then has won the last three lowering the course record on each occasion, no course experience but hasn't stopped him in the past, and he was only four seconds off the World Record in Frankfurt 3/1
Emmanuel Mutai – last years Champion but last month he suffered from a bout of typhoid and surely that has to affect his chances 7/2
Abel Kirui – double World Champion but his record in the big money races is not so great – has been 5th and DNF in London in two attempts 5/1
Tsegaye Kebede – past Champion whose record reads 2nd, 1st, 5th – an each way chance and may well split the Kenyans who are running for Olympic selection 12/1
Martin Lel – the veteran who was 2nd last year almost recapturing the form of his three victories – I just have a feeling he maybe past it now 14/1
When the prices came out I duly backed Kipsang e/w at 7/1 and 8/1 as according to my tissue that was where the best value lay, I also had a smaller investment on Kebede at a value 20/1 e/w.
In the Womens race I did exactly the same process although this time I could only see four in with a real chance of victory
Mary Keitany – last years champion and a huge talent but she showed her inexperience in New York in the Fall and maybe vulnerable 2/1
Florence Kiplagat – cross country and half marathon world champion, sole marathon resulted in a win in Berlin last year beating Radcliffe and Mikitenko – fast time but debatable what she achieved and ran didn't run great in half marathon in January 5/1
Lucy Kabuu – unexposed runner – lost a few years due to injury and having family but returned in 2011 winning the Delhi half marathon and Great North run in fast times. Her marathon debut came in Dubai in January where she became the eighth fastest ever and 3rd fastest debutant in finishing 2nd 11/2
Edna Kiplagat – won New York (beating debutant Keitany) and Los Angeles in 2010 and the World Championship last year. Was third in London lasting year knocking five minutes off her PB – but maybe vulnerable in a fast race 6/1
April 20th 11.50
In the Womens London Marathon I make it between four athletes and think there is a bit of value in the unexposed Lucy Kabuu at 8/1 e/w. Todays Newsletter will talk about niche betting and focus in part on the London marathon and will go out later today - to get your copy email Newsletter to info@sportsbettingindex.com
April 19th 14.59
Quite a few books are now up with this Sundays London Marathon - and if I was to price up the top of the market it would be as follows
Patrik Makau 3/1
Wilson Kipsang 3/1
Emmanuel Mutai 7/2
Abel Kirui 5/1
Tsegaye Kebede 12/1
Martin Lel 14/1
Going by my prices I have bet quite heavily on Wilson Kipsang at 7/1 and 8/1 and think anything over 5/1 each way is a good price. Also Kebede is worth a small investment e/w at 20/1.
April 18th 09.36
The Valero Texas Open returns to the Greg Norman designed Oaks course at San Antonio for the third time this year and to be honest it is a weak renewal down to its place in the calender. The two players I really wanted to back were Holmes and Hoffman but not at less than 40/1 and the prices available really are poor.
Main pick goes to Ryan Palmer who has three PGA titles to his name - more than most in this field and more than the two named above. He is very keen to win his home event and did well to finish 9th in 2010 especially when you look at the fact that that performance was sandwiched by five missed cuts on either side. He almost won the Byron Nelson at home in Texas last season when 2nd and with the greens suiting and his all round game in solid form he should turn in a good performance.
Matt Bettencourt is my only other selection and whilst he only has one PGA tour victory in 2010 he also won twice on the Nationwide tour in 2008 when he topped the money list. Those victories came in quick succession once he hit form with his putter and that's exactly what happened last week at Harbour Town. One of his vcitories was the Tour Championship in Texas - the same event as last years winner Brendan Steele (albeit on a different course) and like the first three home last year Bettencourt is a Californian. It maybe the greens at San Antonio that caused that strange anomoly but at 125/1 I am willing to take the risk.
April 17th 21.37
The European tour travels to China again and pitches up on yet another new course so basically I have concentrated on players in form who are confirmed winners.
Hennie Otto now has two European Tour wins and twelve other wins to his name so he knows how to get the job done and he is definitely in top form finishing 5/9/7 in his last three starts. Whilst he has not much recent form in China or indeed Asia (he has very few starts in the area) but if you go back to 2003 he was 2nd in Hong Kong.
Jose Manuel Lara also has two European tour wins and his first came next door in Hong Kong. Like Otto he is also in top form finishing 4/c/9/5 in his last four starts in European events. It is not the strongest event ever to take place on tour which should suit the Spaniard.
I have gone for one player at a somewhat bigger price in the shape of young Korean Bio Kim. He has plenty of top form in his native South Korea but has also finished 5/c/1 in his three starts in China. He didn't play that badly on the PGA tour last year having been the youngest ever player to go through all three stages of the PGA Q school and now finds himself on the Nationwide Tour. He has had a fairly slow start to his year but last week he was 5th having closed with a fantastic 63 in California and I am not sure he should be three figures.
April 17th 14.30
A quick summary of the bets in the main two events - reasons to follow and also will take a good look at the smaller events
Volvo China Open
Jose Manuel Lara 0.25 ew 66/1
Hennie Otto 0.4 ew 55/1
Bio Kim 0.25 ew 100/1
Valero Texas Open
Ryan Palmer 0.4 ew 50/1
Matt Bettencourt 0.25 ew 125/1
April 16th 12.04
Waking up this morning anf seeing Alex Aragong (tipped last week at 175/1 and available at 200/1 this week) had won on the Nationwide Tour was the final kick in the balls I needed after a poor run of tipping! So it's time to implement some changes - whilst I have been quiet on the blog for a few weeks I have been working away on where things have been going wrong for a while now - hopefully in the coming weeks the benefits will be reaped! This week the main events are the Volvo China Open and Valero Texas Open
April 13th 11.24
A quick bet to add for Malaysia - I nearly tipped Ben Fox before the off but was concerned how he would fare against the bigger players but he is holding his own - 0.25 ew 66/1 1/4 4. There will be no newsletter this week but normal service will be resumed next week once the kids have gone back to school!
April 11th 13.55
A quick summery of all the bets so far - I still have one for more player to add for the RBC Heritage
Malaysian Open
Simon Dyson 0.4 ew 50/1
James Morrison  0.25 ew 150/1 +0.25 top 10 16/1
RBC Heritage
John Huh 0.25 ew 100/1
George McNeill 0.1 ew 125/1
Brian Harman 0.2 ew 200/1
Ken Duke 0.1 win 175/1 + 0.5 top 10 14/1
Jason Dufner round one leader 0.1 ew 50/1
Ricky Barnes 0.2 ew 100/1 + 0.2 top 5 20/1
Greg Owen 0.1 win 150/1 + 0.4 top 10 12/1 + 0.1 ew 1st round leader 100/1
TPC Stonebrae Championship
Joseph Bramlett 0.2 ew 110/1
April 10th 10.27
All tips will be posted throught the next couple days on Twitter SBIdotcom - just the two so far in the RBC Heritage John Huh 0.25 ew 100/1 and George McNeill 0.1 ew 125/1
April 8th 22.47
A brief post as I am sat watching the end to the Masters which at one point was looking good yesterday before going quickly pearshaped although I did lay Dufner and O'Hair on the Betfair trading portfolio - see Tweets! I do hope some of you got on the hole in one at around 5/2 this morning - I managed £100 at Betfair to reduce a few losses.
Next week we return to normal with the RBC Heritage from Harbour Town and the European tour pitches up in Malaysia. There will be few posts over the next week as I am really struggling with eye problems causing me constant headaches not aided by staring at a computer! but all bets will be posted on Twitter.
April 5th 15.29
Just a quick post to say I will be putting all my Betfair trades on Twitter @ SBIdotcom for the Masters if you want to follow - hopefullly there will be some lays as well as backs!!
April 5th 11.22
Now that everything has settled down on the Masters front and it isn't long til they tee offit's time for a few thoughts on this weeks Nationwide tour picks. The Soboba Classic moves from September to April but I am not sure it will make much difference to the event. This is the 4th staging and there is no obvious pattern to winners so I have gone for one who has drifted to a nice price and another with some "hidden" course form. When Russell Henley first started playing on this tour he was starting at pretty low prices having won as an amateur in 2011. That win came on a course he had played in college and had also played the year before on the Nationwide tour and finished 34th. Soboba Springs was the venue of his first start as a pro last year and he finished 31st and whilst he hasn't set the tour on fire this season he now returns to a familiar venue - 0.25 ew 100/1.
On the face of things Alex Aragon is not a great player but two starts ago he had his best ever finish on this tour when 4th in Chile. The San Diego resident now plays in his home state on a course where has some good form. He played this event in 2010 and led after an opening round 64, he also played the California State Open on this course that year where his 65 in round 1 was the 2nd lowest and his closing 69 in tough conditions to finish 2nd was 5 shots lower than anyone else!! He was only let down by a poor second round and that was played on a different course. 0.2 ew 175/1

April 4th 13.26
Before outlining bookmaker special offers there are a few further points I would like to bring up about betting on the Masters. Firstly (and this might seem odd as they haven’t teed off yet!) be worried if your pick isn’t in the last pairing on Sunday - with the exception of Zach Johnson and then Schwartzel last year no winner in the last 20 years has come from outside the final two ball.
There is also another bet worth waiting until Sunday for and that is a hole in one. On the final day there is a favourable pin position on the 16th hole and whilst there have been seven in the last eight years - six of those have come at the 16th on the final day.
Augusta National is a course that takes some mastering and there are a few players who really have struggled in their starts to date and maybe worth opposing in match bets - Martin Kaymer has missed all four cuts, Louis Oosthuizen three from three and Anders Hansen the same number.
Finally I have alluded to a bet on the blog but I still cannot get on so for anyone who can still bet at Centrebet the bet is in their top 25 market. The player in question is young Japanese amateur Hideki Matsuyama who finished 27th on his debut last year. Since then he has won as an amateur on the Japanese tour and regained his Asian Amateur title which gets him in again this week and he has also bagged the World University Games title. I make him a bet at the 12/1 for a top 20 finish as he only has to improve slightly on what he achieved at Augusta last year and Centrebet go 20/1 for a top 25 finish! If you are taking the 12/1 he is a 0.5 win bet - if you can get the 20/1 then to me he is a 3 point win bet as I make that a 6/1 shot at best (oh - and put a few quid on for me!!!)
That’s the last of the bets but here are a list of some of the special offers - there are lots of enhanced prices around - with Victor Chandler and William Hill offering 9/1 on Rory this morning - and from what I have heard that is indicative of the fact they are struggling to lay him at much shorter. A few bookmakers are offering six places - among them Boyles and Paddy Power and Sportingbet are offering that concession to people betting via their mobile platform.
Bluesquare will refund single bets (win or win part of each way) placed on any golfer who finishes within 2 shots of the winning score. - this offer applies to all bets placed before the completion of the second round.
Paddy Power will refund all losing bets if Tiger Woods wins and if the same scenario occurs Ladbrokes will pay out as the winner anyone who finishes second.
Coral are using an interesting angle which could benefit quite a lot of bettors as they will refund any bets on players who lead after the third round but fail to win.
Finally William Hill will offer a free bet to use on the final day should your player miss the cut and you use their mobile
All the best Masters prices are available here

April 3rd 23.17
Last thing for tonight - just updated my Betfair Masters betting portfolio for the week
Justin Rose +1945
Steve Stricker +385
Jim Furyk +2725
Brandt Snedeker +2175
Geoff Ogilvy +4125
Jason Dufner +3425
Trevor Immelman +6720
Angel Cabrera +2030
YE Yang +1125
Ed Molinari +10930
Ryan Palmer +2725
Sean O'Hair +6145
Jose Maria +2945
Field -275

April 3rd 22.15
There are many previews, views and tips for the first Major of the season so I’t about time to add my own. You will have already seen my tips and below you can see te reasoning behind them all.
First of all I will talk a little about the three that dominate the market. There is no denying Rory McIlroy should be up there but I really do wonder If last years Sunday collapse could still haunt him - he certainly laid the Major ghost to rest at the US Open but will he lay his Augusta National ghost to rest? As for Tiger Woods - well he does have four green jackets to his name but he has only won once in the last nine years and that included a lot of time when in his prime and I still have my doubts about how good he is compared to how good he was. Personally if I was a favourite backer I would invest in Phil Mickelson as since Woods won his last green jacket Phil has added his second and third - the one drawback is that his long game is in disarray this season and he is only being saved by his putter. I my opinion it pays to look further down the list as four of the last five winners have been three figure prices.
I tipped up Justin Rose at 55/1 quite a few weeks ago as he was beginning to hit form and I am a little concerned he may have gone off the boil a bit, which can mainly be put down to his putting - his GIR figures are still in fine fettle. If he can get off to a fast start as he did in 04/07/08 then he is a better player now and could hang around all week.
I really like the look of Geoff Ogilvy this week and still think he is a huge price at 100/1 e/w. He has had a very quiet start to the season mainly due to him saying he was really tired at the end of 2011 and has taken things slowly so far this season. He had his best finish last time out when closing with a 66 to finish 16th at the Transitions. On the face of it he is going to be much fresher than most and seems to be able to turn it on for the big events. His best Masters finish was last year when 4th and he can boast a US Open win, two World Matchplay Championships and won the tour winners event at Kapalua twice.
Sean O’Hair is very difficult to catch right but he does now have four PGA tour wins to his name and has some reasonably good form at Augusta National. I have tipped him a few times over the last few years in the Masters and have watched him on the leaderboards quite closely and he seems to keep getting stopped in his tracks when he has a poor hole. He is now a bigger price than when I tipped him as he has put in some indifferent performances but as I say - he really is difficult to catch right.
Angel Cabrera has a great record at Augusta - the place seems to bring out the best in him and like Ogilvy he saves his best for the big occasion as his two wins in the US are the US Open and the Masters. If further proof were needed that he is a big event performer then he has also won and been second twice at Wentworth in the European flagship event. He has just begun to find a bit of form over the last month which adds to the interest as he can usually turn it on from nowhere.
Sticking with past champions I will take a chance with Trevor Immelman and hope that his wrist is feeling better this week. In his last start at Bay Hill he finished 11th and scrambled and putted really well. Since his win in 2008 he has finished top twenty every year despite struggling with injury so a fit Immelman would make a mockery of his price - but that is always the risk.
We were on Edoardo Molinari on his last start when he finished just out the money but it continued his run of improving on every start this season. I really like him in the Top Continental European market in my opinion it is a weak market especially when you consider Kaymer is hoping to make his first cut at his fifth attempt. Molinari managed it at his third attempt last year and finished 11th bagging the “title” of top Continental European in the process.
I have backed Jason Dufner in a variety of markets - the main one being top American as I think he may well struggle with some of the top European players although he has been 2nd and 5th in the last two PGA Championships so can definitely cope with the Major pressures but he is still winless on the PGA tour. He has been playing some solid golf this year and has led the all round stats in his last two events. The reason for the round one leader bet is simply he has been stunning in the opening round over the last two months where in his five stroke play events he has finished 1/36/1/3/1 after the opening salvo.
Final outright tip is for YE Yang for round one leader - he has been in average form so far this year but in the last two seasons he has been 2nd and 3rd after Thursdays opening round at Augusta.
As I alluded to earlier I am still trying to bet one other player and will fill you in on him tomorrow

April 3rd 14.45
Only one more bet added so far today - Jason Dufner 0.1 win 175/1 (enhanced win only) + 0.5 ew 55/1 top American. I have two lined up for round one leader but want to wait til tee times come out before deciding on staking. There is also a price I have seen at one book in a side market which is so wrong it beggars belief - sadly I can't get on at the moment - if I can't then I will put it up tomorrow and hope some you can punish it!!
April 2nd 16.58
For those not following on Twitter I have added afew more bets - both in the form of Ed Molinari - outright 0.2 ew 225/1 6 places and top Continental European 0.5 ew 18/1 1/5 4. I still have a few more to go although I may well wait for rd 1 leader until tee times are announced.
April 2nd 11.22
Am ready to go with side market bets - and maybe a couple more outrights - it is just a question of waiting for the odds to appear so stay tuned on Twitter - SBIdotcom
April 1st 16.26
Close but no cigar in Sicily with both Goya and Edberg just coming up shy of the places- frustrating as Edberg traded as low as 5.0 (I should know!) before being blown away in the wind on Saturday.
The weekend has largely been spent finalising research for the Masters and whilst I have had five antepost bets so far I have also been backing players on Betfair. Some of these are obviously the same as the tips but there are a few extras thrown in to try and trade during the week. I daresay there will be a few more before kick off so I will try and update it as I go along. I also have some bets I will be placing on side markets as these come out on Monday/Tuesday
Justin Rose +1970
Steve Stricker +410
Brandt Snedeker +2200
Geoff Ogilvy +4150
Jason Dufner +2450
Trevor Immelman +6750
Angel Cabrera +2050
YE Yang +1150
Ed Molinari +11000
Ryan Palmer +2750
Sean O'Hair +6170
Jose Maria +2970
Field -250
March 30th 10.12
Just a quick post - last night we added Angel Cabrera to our Masters portfolio - 0.2 ew 150/1 and I am glad we did as unsurprisingly his price has been quickly cut. If you want to follow the tips as they come out they are quoted in real time on Twitter at SBIdotcom. There will be no newsletter this week - instead we will be having a Masters speical sent out on Tuesday - to receive it simply send Newsletter to info@sportsbettingindex.com
March 28th 11.59
Just a quick recap on where we stand with the antepst tips for the US Masters - no doubt these will be added to over the next few days!
Justin Rose - 0.5 ew 55/1
Geoff Ogilvy - 0.4 ew 100/1
Sean O'Hair - 0.2 ew 125/1
Trevor Immelman - 0.25 ew 125/1
All the best current prices can be found here
March 28th 11.24
Following the golf on Sunday I noted down one player I wanted to be on for the Shell Houston Open and was very surprised someone was laying Henrik Stenson at 100 on Betfair early doors! Whilst he is playing down his return to form after surgery, injury and a whole host of changes to his game there is no denying it is beginning to pay dividends. His scoring average of 69.18 in his twelve rounds sits him behind only Rory, Tiger and Lee. All three of his starts 21/3/15 have been career best finishes at those courses and now he comes to a venue where in his only appearance in 2009 he was 3rd. Whilst the price is nowhere near what I got on Sunday I expect him to go close this week and have hence suggested a large bet.
I have struggled to find any other players I want to side with but Josh Teater really caught my eye. He has been 14th and 19th in his two starts here and has led the all round stats each year. Last year he was 2nd after the opening round and was let down by a poor putting day on round two and a quadruple bogey on day three. Whilst his form doesn't look anything great he shot a fine 67 in round three last week and has already been 4th twice this season after the opening round - hence the round one bet as well this week - he also is first to tee off this week.
March 28th 10.38
The Sicilian Open makes its second appearance on the European Tour but we can largely rule out the form from last years event as we move to the Kyle Phillips designed Verdura course which can only be described as coastal and linksy much like his best creation Kingsbarns. So it looks like we have a "warmer version" of that top class course and it also reminds me a lot of the San Domenico course another Italian coastal "links" which is used for the Challenge Tour finale. I can quite happily pass over the favourites as Manassero whilst in good form is too short, Colsaerts has one win from 191 European tour starts whilst Donaldson is zero from 230!! Hence I have looked further down the field and concentrated on players that might play the course well.
Tommy Fleetwood grew up playing links courses and shot a 63 at Kingsbarns in last years Dunhill links going on to finish 5th, he also shot a 61 at San Domenico eventually finishing 2nd. He is in solid form and was 2nd at the cut in Andalucia two starts ago and is now playing on a course that should suit.
Andrea Pavan was the player that beat Fleetwood at San Domenico in November playing on his "home" course so this should hold no fears for him. He has been fairly solid this year and I don't think he should be a three figure price playing on home soil.
Tano Goya already has a win on the main tour in Madeira in 2009 - another coastal track and the year before won the Challenge Tour final at San Domenico. A repeat of his 13th in Dubai or 6th at the Avantha Masters last month should see him go close.
Left field pick is Pelle Edberg who has struggled to get into events so far this season as he has a pretty low ranking. He has been 5th the last two years at San Domenico and was also 4th last year at the at home in Sweden on another Kyle Phillips design.
March 27th 14.45
Below is a quick summery of the bets so far - that will probably be it for the main tours before the off but I will be looking at the smaller tours and the Kraft Nabisco - the firts Major on the LPGA tour of the year.
Shell Houston Open
Henrik Stenson 1 ew 45/1 (55/11 Unibet)
Josh Teater 0.2 ew 200/1 (250/50 Unibet) + 0.4 top 10 16/1 + 0.1 ew Rd1 leader 150/1
Sicilian Open
Andrea Pavan 0.25 ew 100/1
Tommy Fleetwood 0.4 ew 66/1
Tano Goya 0.2 ew 80/1
Pelle Edberg 0.1 ew 200/1
March 25th 23.48
A frustrating week with both the bigger bets - Ed Molinari and Zach Johnson finishing one shot out of some sort of payout. I have added Trevor Immelman to the Masters portfolio - 0.25 ew 125/1. Back tomorrow with thoughts on the Shell Houston Open and Sicilian Open
March 22nd 11.21
A couple of quick points about the players I have backed for the Louisiana Open - Wetterich last year became the first player to win the title twice although there were eight years between his wins - Alker is attempting to make in ten years between wins. Whilst it is a big ask for someone who misses so many cuts he did have his best result last time out in Chile - 4th - since his last win in March 2009 - he does seem to like March!! As for Roland Thatcher - well it is still a mystery as to why he pulled out of the Mayakoba after a good first round but he played well in Puerto Rico when 12th which reads well in this low quality field. This event was his first ever PGA sanctioned event on home soil back in 2002 and he led by two after the first round eventually finishing 8th. He can boast back to back top tens on the main PGA tour in Louisiana and last time he played mainly on this tour in 2007 he won twice - I think he should be much shorter in the betting.
March 21st 21.59
A quick post to fill in the bets for the Nationwide Tour - Louisiana Open which have been put up on Twitter - SBIdotcom - Steven Alker 0.2 ew 200/1, Roland Thatcher 0.5 ew 66/1 - will explain more tomorrow
March 20th 21.57
A top class field assembles for the Arnold Palmer Invitational and at the top end of the market it really is difficult to spot any players that represent any sort of value. However one player did stand out and that was seven time tour winner Zach Johnson and I really don't see why he should be around the same price as non winners such as Levin, Dufner and Overton. You would have thought he has poor course form but he has been 3rd and also twice 8th around Bay Hill. In recent weeks he has struggled with just one aspect of his game - he has been putting really well but not hitting enough greens, whereas last week his ball striking was excellent but he struggled on the greens - if he can get the two together on a course he has played well before then his price will seem very large 0.5 ew 66/1
Ken Duke is now in his 40's and has yet to win on the main tour but the Florida resident has some top class form in his adopted home state. Last week he was 5th just missing out on the playoff by one shot and he can also boast a 2nd and 5th at the Ginn Sur Mer Classic and most importantly was 6th on his first start here back in 2008. Admittedly the course has toughened up but he has been playing so well on the Nationwide Tour and the main tour over the last nine months he is worth a bet at 125/1 - 0.2 ew 125/1.
Kyle Reifers really is a longshot and I have only been drawn to him becauese he won the Monday qualifier last week by shooting seven under and drove the ball really well to end up 38th. He has played here once before back in 2007 and his 12th place remains to this day his best ever PGA tour finish 0.1 ew 275/1 + 0.2 top 10 25/1
Last but not least my old friend Rocco Mediate and there is one simple reason for backing him - this is one event he is desperate to win. Arnold Palmer was his mentor when he was learning the game and when ithe event was named in his honour in 2007 he came up just shy when 2nd. He was also 3rd at Bay Hill in 2002 and whilst he is out of form stranger things have happened when players are inspired by certain factors 0.2 ew 400/1 + 0.2 top 10 33/1
March 20th 13.05
My thoughts on the Hassan Trophy -
Sometimes you look at the top of the market and you can easily pinpoint who is going to be backed due to current/course form and who is going to be favourite. This week Fran Molinari and Manassero were obviously going to be short and Gonnet and Van Zyl were going to be backed. Gonnet I just cannot have - this is his 200th start and he is still looking for a win on any tour and Van Zyl seems incapable of winning outside of small South African events. Yet I can back a player with five Challenge tour wins, one in Japan and two on the main tour who played in the Ryder Cup last time at bigger odds - madness!
Edoardo Molinari hasn't been in sparkling form over the last year but I would say on potential he is as good as Manassero and better than his brother. He has had a niggling wrist injury for a long time but he won't have surgery until September as he wants to try and play in the Ryder Cup again. He has steadily improved with each start this year and on Friday last week we were shown a masterclass in putting. In the corresponding week for the last two years he has been playing at Bay Hill and has been 12th and 2nd - any play close to that will see him in the winners enclosure. The fact that he will play on until September means the injury is not too serious and we all know the old saying - beware the injured golfer! 0.75 ew 40/1
French players often inspire their countrymen to go on to win and with Quesne winning last week the one I want on my side is Gregory Bourdy. Unlike Gonnet he can actually boast three main tour wins already and is slowly coming to hand. He was 19th here last year - his best start of 2011 thus far and in his next event he had one of his best finishes of the season when 2nd in Malaysia. His all round stats in his last two starts have been really solid and at least we know he can close the deal 0.5 ew 45/1
Last but not least is my rag of the week - Ricardo Santos. He got his card with a really solid season on the Challenge Tour in 2011 with a win and seven other top ten finishes. He has made his last for cuts and had a 10th in India and he may just be inspired by a country he has finished 4th and 8th in on the lower tour before 0.2 win 150/1 + 0.4 top 10 14/1
March 19th 18.04
Quick summary of bets so far - nothing more for today as off out for the evening!
Arnold Palmer - Zach Johnson 0.5 ew 66/1
Hassan Trophy - Ed Molinari 0.75 ew 40/1 Gregory Bourdy 0.5 ew 45/1
March 19th 10.59
No joy last week in the end so it's onto the Hassan Trophy on the European Tour and the Arnold Palmer Invitational from Bay Hill on the PGA tour plus a host of smaller events. In the meantime I have added my second US Masters antepost bets - Geoff Ogilvy 0.4 ew 100/1
March 17th 14.07
The golf picks this week isn't looking particularly great but anything can happen over the weekend. However I have added one more player for the Transitions event - Jamie Lovemark - a huge talent who is on his way back from back surgery. In the past when he was in contention he remained there, he finally made a cut when 20th in Puerto Rico last week and is 13th at the moment on -5. I have put the bet down as 0.2 ew 125/1 1/4 4 but I have personally backed him 200/25 on Betfair.
I am already well through the research for next week but the Hassan Trophy looks horrible and the two I pencilled in for the Arnold Palmer Bay Hill Invitational haven't entered!
March 14th 21.00
Apologies for being a bit tardy with my thoughts on the Transitions event but here they are and again there was no strong selection for me but instead five smaller bets
Jonathan Byrd whilst not a prolific winner he does nonetheless have five wins with one in each of the last two years. He has a superb long term scoring average at Innisbrook and in nine starts has never missed a cut having an average finishing position of 21st. He does tend to play the same courses well year in year out and will certainly give you a good run for your money.
John Huh - tour rookie has already had an impressive start to his PGA career and in six starts has been in contention three times and won once. Even after his win as Mayakoba he played well for two rounds at the PGA National and having had a bit of time off I can see him raring to go again and really don't see why he should be 80/1.
Harris English is a great prospect and has had a consistent start to the season with six cuts made but he will be more at home on the Bermuda greens he finds this week. He admitted he struggled on the greens on the West coast but in his first Florida event he played in the final round with Rory. He did fade that day but would have learnt a lot and we must remember that in just eight Nationwide tour starts he had a 1st, 2nd and 3rd with that 3rd coming in Florida. His win came on the OSU course which he had played before and he comes to Innisbrook with some positive memories having won the Southern Amateur round here just last year!
DA Points has had a pretty good start to the year with some very solid finishes and back home in Florida in the Honda he improved with every round. He has finished 27th and 28th in his two starts here in 2009/10 but I believe he is a better player now and at 100/1 is worth a play.
Troy Matteson - I am going to stick with Matteson at three times the price he was last week as I still think he is improving as he was 7th for ball striking last week but let down by his putting, He can boast a 2nd and 9th here in the past and his current level of form reminds me of when he last won in 2009.
March 14th 14.02
I have no really strong bets in either the European or PGA events this week but instead have gone small on a range of players - first up the Andalucian Open
Rhys Davies - a great putter but that side of his game has let him down a bit of late but the rest of his game is in fine fettle. Last time out in India he was 1st for driving distance, and 2nd for driving accracy and GIR - that is a potent combination and March seems to be one of his favourite months. Whilst he hasn't any course form he has some great form in Spain - 6th in this event in 2009, 2nd in the Madrid Masters in 2010 and he won on the Challenge Tour on Spanish soil. If the putter clicks he will go close.
Oliver Fisher - has played here twice - in 07 he was 24th let down by his putting as he was 2nd for ball striking on the week and the following year he lost the playoff to Levet having hit the water on the 72nd hole. He finally got his first win on tour last year in the Czech Open and although he has been in poor form this season three figures is generous for a player who clearly plays the course well.
Michael Jonzon - the same can be said of Jonzon who played badly in the desert swing - but he always does. He has recorded finishes of 4th and 6th here and his second tour win in 2009 also came in Spain so he could well bounce back to form this week.
Andy Sullivan
- some of you may remember we were on Sullivan at the Q school in Spain at the end of last year when he was 2nd. He hasn't been able to get in many events this season due to his status but he has been keeping his hand in by playing some small events in Spain over the last few weeks and has been 5th and 1st . Worth a small bet just in case this is the week he confirms his potential.
March 14th 12.10
I'll start of by getting my thoughts out of the way for Jeff Hart in the Toshiba Classic. He turned 50 last year and has played in eight Champions tour events with a best finish of 6th in the AT&T in October. He lives at Solona Beach just down the road and has played the Newport Beach course plenty of times. He keeps himself very fit by playing lots of local events in California in which re remains very competitive. The last time he was in contention in a main event was on the Nationwide Tour in 2009 when he was 4th entering the final round of the Soboba Classic (fading to 11th) on a course he also plays a lot on at home in California. He really could be a surprise package this week - 0.25 ew 150/1
March 13th 18.28
A quick summary of all bets placed so far for this week - have been enjoying Cheltenham so might not have write-ups til tomorrow!
Transitions Championship
Jonathan Byrd 0.25 ew 60/1
John Huh 0.25 ew 80/1
Harris English 0.25 ew 80/1
DA Points 0.25 ew 100/1
Troy Matteson 0.2 win 200/1 + 0.4 top 10 18/1
Open de Andalucia
Rhys Davies 0.5 ew 60/1
Oliver Fisher 0.2 ew 125/1
Michael Jonzon 0.2 ew 150/1
Andy Sullivan 0.1 ew 250/1
March 12th 18.08
A quick update on picks so far and for anyone new you can get them on Twitter @ SBIdotcom - Open de Andalucia
Rhys Davies 0.5 ew 60/1
Oliver Fisher 0.2 ew 125/1
Michael Jonzon 0.2 ew 150/1
March 12th 09.53
Apologies for not posting last night but I had one too many glasses of wine sat there waiting for the scoreboard from Puerto Rico to update! Really glad McNeill won especially with Rose winning at Doral having had a big bet on him last week - hopefully some of you saw my Tweet about Rose for the Masters on Friday and got on at 50/55 for 0.5 ew.
This is kind of a personal blog message to a certain Mr Coleman (if that's his real name) - I don't read your rude emails they go straight to my Spam folder but I did happen to go and retrieve the one you sent last week and it would appear that I am indeed on the correct planet and do know what I am talking about!
Anyway - onto this week where we have the return of the Eropean Tour with the Andalucian Open and the PGA tour stays in Florida for the Transitions event from Innisbrook
March 10th 10.12
It could well be one of those weekends that makes or breaks the years figures with Scott 3rd, McNeill 2nd and Tullo 8th at their respective cuts. In Puerto Rico I don't really fear Jones much - he was joint leader here in 2009 on his only previous visit shot 79 in round three and ended up 44th!
The Cheltenham Newsletter was sent yesterday - to get your copy email Newsletter to info@sportsbettingindex.com
March 7th 22.28
The Nationwide Tour pitches up in Chile for the first time ever and being played in Santiago I have gone for three home grown players to cause a bit of an upset. The most well known Chilean player is Felipe Aguilar and probably for that reason he is favourite but I have three others who have been in equally good form especially at home and can boast some better course form.
Benjamin Alvarado won a Tour de Las Americas event on this course in March last year by a massive eight shots with Aguilar a further seven shots back. He hasn't played brilliantly in his last two Nationwide starts but I think at home we will see a different player - indeed he won just last month at home. I was hoping for a bigger price so at 33/1 I will only have 0.25 ew as I just cannot leave him out.
Mark Tullo has been playing at home in Chile all year finishing 2/14/4/5/2 and is looking forward to playing the Prince of Wales course as it's his home course. If he can recreate his third placed finish in the Scottish Open last year or his two wins from the European Challenge tour in 2010 he should go close 0.2 ew 125/1
The third Santiago player is one most wouldn't have heard of - Nicolas Geyger but like Tullo he has been playing at home all year with finishes of 18/2/4/3/5/3 so he is incredibly consistent. He also has some great form on the course with a 2nd and 1st place finish in 2009 and 2010 when he still a very young player 0.2 ew 150/1
March 7th 20.27
I have been a bit tied up the last few days so will quickly go through my thoughts on the PGA and Nationwide tour events.
Firstly Puerto Rico - we have three winners of this so far and there is a common theme that links them and that is Florida. Michael Bradley (twice a winner) was born and lives there, Greg Kraft went to college and now lives there and Derek Lamely was born, went to college and lives there. As winners they all said the same - it was just like playing in Florida. Whilst this helped me narrow the field down for betting purposes it still left me with twenty players who meet at least two of the criteria from which I picked two.
George McNeill meets all three criteria and even lives in Fort Myers with Derek Lamely. He can boast some great form in his home state with three runner up slots - he also filled that position twice last year as well as a 5th place finish here. Last year he was going off at 33/1 in similar company so is well worth a bet at 55/1 - 0.6 ew
Rocco Mediate - my old favourite lol - to be honest he is biding his time before joining the Champions tour but it was only in October 2010 that he last won. In his last three starts he has shot some really good rounds and if he can put four or even three of those together he can make the odds of 200/1 look massive - 0.2 ew
For my final pick I slightly changed my criteria but I cannot leave Troy Matteson out of the staking plan even though he was only born in Florida. He lost in a playoff here last season and feels he has unfinished business. He was in awful form last season on arriving in Puerto Rico but this time around he is starting to find some form. Last week he finished 26th at the Honda Classic - he had previously missed all three cuts there and closed with a fine 66. He said last year he has been travelling to Puerto Rico for many years and loves the place so as a two time PGA tour winner warrants close inspection - 0.4 ew 66/1
March 6th 15.53
For those not followin on Twitter this weeks Puerto Rico tips are as follows
George McNeill - 0.6 ew 55/1
Troy Matteson - 0.4 ew 66/1
Rocco MEdiate - 0.2 ew 200/1
March 5th 20.53
A few words on the other two picks for the WGC Cadillac
Francesco Molinari - one thing in his favour despite the fact he doesn't win as often as he should - at least his last win was in a WGC event - the HSBC event so at least he can win in this type of company. His form at Sheshan before he won was 9/10 and his form at Doral in the last two years reads 14/3. He has had a pretty quiet start to the year but it reads no different to last year when he was 3rd and I think there is plenty of value in the place part of the bet 0.25 ew 110/1
Fredrik Jacobson - only a small play because I am still a bit worried about his thumb inury but he played OK last week in the Honda Classic when 16th although his putting saved his poor driving. He has some solid form in Florida over the years and on his only start at Doral was 4th back in 2006. With a PGA tour win now under his belt I belive he certainly has the ability to compete with the best 0.2 ew 80/1
Back tomorrow with thoughts and bets for Puerto Rico.
March 5th 14.17
Well we came close to a decent payday but Rose made a right horlicks of the last four holes and eventually endied up tying for 5th with Schwartzel.
For those following on Twitter you will see I have already put up Adam Scott for the WGC Cadillac event from Doral. He is not a player I would tip very often but much still holds true from what I said back in August when I tipped him up at 50/1 for the WGC event at Firestone. Here again he comes to an event where he has played OK before with a couple of top tens and with the "course caddie" on his bag Stevie Williams who had three wins round Doral with Tiger Woods in his prime. Scott is well rested compared to a lot of players having taken over three months off. In the one strokeplay event he played he was 17th at Riviera and was a bit rusty over the first two days. He is one of the few players who can beat the world top five when they are in form and the early 45/50 really is a very big price - 1 ew
I have a few moe picks for the WGC event but will have to wait and see if they are worth backing at the prices available - then all we have to do is sit around and wait for the other events to be priced up!
March 4th 11.58
With the wind up and thunderstorms in the forecast they tee off early in the Honda today so we will know our fate early on with the Rose punt. He was poor with his irons yesterday but grinded it out - hopefully the short missed birdie putt on eighteen last night won't knock his confidence too much as anything could happen today!
There was no newsletter this week as there will be a bumper one on Friday for the Cheltenham Festival with all the bookmakers offers - if you want it send Newsletter to info@sportsbettingindex.com
Next week looks busier on the golf front with the WGC Cadillac Championship from Doral and the Puerto Rico Open plus events in Chile and Colombia on the Nationwide and European Challenge Tours.
February 29th 20.48
Just the one bet in this weeks Nationwide event the Panama Championship - Mark Anderson 0.5 ew 40/1 - still available with Sportingbet.com.au
Anderson has started off 2012 on the main tour but has dropped down a grade this week but he shown an increasing level of form on the PGA tour with finishes of mc/64/35/16 - the last result being in Mexico last week so he should be well acclimatised. He was 2nd after round one last week and closed with a fine 66 so is clearly in good nick. Last year he made his seasonla debut in Panama and shot all four rounds under par to finish 13th. The year before he had a couple of runs under his belt down under and then came 4th. With his solid course form and him now showing he is fully fit I expect a bold showing this week - I expected him to be favourite.
February 28th 14.46
Time for a summary of the for picks for this weeks Honda Classic - the main theme is that the PGA National is one of the toughest tracks they play all year and the key is finding players who will thrive in such conditions.
Justin Rose admits he prefers a good test of golf and struggles on birdie fests. He now has three wins on the PGA tour in the last two seasons - somewhat more than Rory and Lee who are trading at a quarter his odds. He can boast some decent course form with a 15th and 3rd last time he appeared in 2010 and was 5th and 1st in the all round stats on those starts. He has admitted he has been a little cold so far this season but he hasn't played a great deal but is hitting the ball well and should feel more at "home" in Florida 1 pt ew 45/1
Ryan Palmer - everyone seems to think he can only play easier courses because he won a pro am in Florida but his other win in the state was on the tough Hammock Beach Conservatory course when he was seven under and he was runner up to Keegan Bradley at the tough Byron Nelson last year. With two wins coming in Florida and the other in Hawaii he is really at home on Bermda greens and recently returned to his old putter. He has been creeping slowly into form. Whilst his course form is poor it doesn't put me off - that is the reason he is such a good price! 0.2 ew 150/1 6 places
Ricky Barnes - although still a tour virgin when the tough gets going so does Ricky and he really is a grinder as shown by his 4th placed finish here last season. Whilst a win is a tall order there is mileage in the place odds for someone who has a 10% top 5 strike rate over the last three years 0.2 ew 90/1 + 0.4 top 5 18/1
Matt Every - was on my list last week but scrubbed him at 70/1 as he had no course experience and he went on to finish 3rd. That wasn't the first time he has gone well this season as he led the Sony with a round to go before finishing 6th - he is clearly learning all the time and more or less has his card for next year. The Floridian native is highly talented and played here in 2010 when 26th but that finish belies the fact he was 4th with a round to go and in all four rounds played the Bear Trap in two under with two birdies and no bogeys - that is no mean feat! 0.2 ew 150/1
February 27th 21.43
Just the two bets so far for the Honda Classic - will be adding at least one tomorrow which will be mainly place driven - so far
Justin Rose 1 pt ew 45/1
Ryan Palmer 0.2 ew 150/1 6 places
February 27th 11.44
No joy last week but well done to Huh backers who had to sweat it out for a while - what I said on Twitter yesterday was very true - I couldn't see anyone winning it! Huh did have the perfect short accurate game for the course but as a rookie with no course experience 35/1 was pretty damn short in my mind.
This week we have the top class Honda Classic from the tough PGA National course and the Nationwide Tour reappears in Panama.
February 24th 21.49
Just a quick update - frustrating that Thatcher has w/d from the Mayakoba - he was in a good position and played one hole today and pulled out so must have injured himself. Ames is clearly not injured and going OK! and I am annoyed at not putting up RS Johnson this morning after round one had finished but it seems I have dodged a bullet with other likely picks.
I have added a page which archives all past Newsletters which can be accessed here
February 22nd 11.08
Part of me wasn't looking forward to this weeks Mayakoba as I had such a huge long list of players to back - however once the prices started coming out it quickly became apparent that most of them I could knock off on the grounds of price. If someone like Briny Baird were ever to win then it would be here but at 45/1 I am quite happy to pass especially as the winner is generally an older, accurate player at a big price.
Cameron Beckman loves it round here and of the past champions lining up he is the most backable at the price. He can turn his form on from nowhere and at least he has been making cuts, I also like the 1st round leader play - in his five starts here he has been 2/9/4/2/5 after the opening salvo. 0.5 ew 60/1 + 0.4 ew rd 1 55/1
Roland Thatcher - course record holder with a 61 when he was 9th here in 2008. I will forgive him his missed cut on his only other appearance as he was returning from wrist surgery. He has been knocking the ball close to the pin this year - 2nd on proximity to hole stats but hasn't been holing the putts - knowing he has shot 61 here should help. He also won his first ever main tour event in Mexico so should have fond memories of the region. 0.2 ew 125/1 + 0.5 top ten 12/1
Stephen Ames is the one I have deliberated over most as he withdrew before the start in Phoenix a couple of weeks ago with a bad back but if he is fit then he really does match the winners profile. His best result last year came in the equally weak Puerto Rico Open when 3rd played on the same paspalum grass and of course he grew up on Trinidad so should be used to the climate and conditions. 0.2 ew 70/1
Skip Kendall - I guess you can't beat good current form and Kendall won on Sunday on the Nationwide Tour in Colombia. Hit or miss here in four appearances with a 4th, 9th and two missed cuts. His career is littered with good back to back finishes and the last time he won on the Nationwide Tour he played a Greg Norman designed course the following week and finished 2nd. You might have to send off some emails to get him quoted as he was a late alternate into the field 0.2 ew 100/1
February 21st 18.24
Well Jimmy Walker had a great back nine on Sunday so I guess I need to send him an apology lol Nothing in the World Matchplay for me as I just hate the format and have never had any success - instead all my time has been spent on the Mayakoba Classic - only two bets so far but there could well be another to follow - back tomorrow with further details
Cameron Beckman 0.5 ew 60/1
Roland Thatcher 0.2 ew 125/1 + 0.5 top 10 12/1
Best prices available here
February 19th 15.09
To say things aren't going well at the moment would be an understatement - to say I couldn't tip s**t would be fairly accurate! Nothing has really gone right since Adam Scott won in August last year and I have had my worst losing streak in 16 years of betting on golf. This weekend epitomises what keeps going wrong - a good start with a poor weekend - with Nirat and Pratt fading to nowhere from tied 3rd and original selection Fraser finishing placed. Walker was out in the last group yesterday and played poorly off the tee - hopefully he can have a good round today and claw his way back up the leaderboard - but I wouldn't bet on it!!
Next week sees a bit of a respite as I won't be backing in the World Matchplay and will probably just be having a crack at the Mayakoba Classic
February 16th 10.45
A quick few sentences on the Nationwide Tour Colombian Championship.
Benjamin Alvarado - 0.5 ew 80/1 - the Chilean will be right at home at the altitude in Bogota and was 9th and 6th here when the event was co-sanctioned by the Euro Challenge tour a few years ago. He was 2nd on the Tour de Las Americas money list last year despite only playing five events and is incredibly consistent in South America. He has warmed up with finishes of 10/1/2 in his native Chile and I think he is ready to compete at this level
Tyrone van Aswegen - 0.25 ew 125/1 - the Soth African grew up at altitude and all his best form on either the Nationwide Tour or Sunshine tour came at altitude including 8th here in last years rainshortened event. He is fairly long off the tee but is fairly accurate so should be well suited by the tricky Bogota course.
February 15th 11.50
A brief summary on picks for the Northern Trust Open
Mark Wilson 0.5 ew 90/1 - a pick purely on price - books continually price him up at big odds despite winning twice early in 2011 and already winning this year. Course form isn't that great although he putted really well on his debut when 11th but then again his from on the Humana corses where he won the other week wasn't good either.
Trevor Immelman 0.75 ew 125/1 - main pick of the week. Last week he was 66/80 and proceeded to m/c at Pebble Beach but he has never played well there and was stuck with George Lopez all week. The 10th hole at Riviera is his favorite golf hole in the world and the whole course reminds him of home with its Kikuyu fairways and Bentgrass greens - standard fare for the top South African courses. He was 7th on his debut here but since then has mainly played the event when in poor form/injured - this year he isn't and perhaps it is time for him to emulate fellow South African winners Els/Sabbatini.
Jimmy Walker - 0.2 ew 100/1 + 0.4 top ten 10/1- I expected him to be well backed this week but his price has held up well. He is on a bit of a roll in California with finishes of 9/4/54/8/9 with the 4th coming here last season and says Riviera is one of his favourite corses of the year.
Andres Romero 0.25 ew 125/1 - with finishes of 3rd and 5th here he is worth a small bet. Seemingly out of form but he can find it from nowhere and his m/c in Phoenix was down to just two awful holes. He says the corse suits his game perfectly and I am willing to give him a squeak.
Kevin Stadler 0.5 top ten 14/1 + 0.1 ew Rd 1 leader 125/1 The former USC Trojan had Riviera as one of his home courses when at Uni, still lives just down the road and loves playing here and has been 10th and 12th the last 2 seasons. He can also boast a 2nd and 5th after round one and has an early tee time.
February 14th 20.26
A few thoughts on the Avantha Masters - I had an original shortlist of for but discounted three of them at the available prices - Fraser just doesn't win often enough, Wiesberger - price was too short on a course in theory shouldn't suit but in practice may do!, and Oli Fisher - who I just can't seem to pull the trigger on. That left me with Kieran Pratt the hugely talented young Australian. On his first season he struggled on the Asian tour but his 6th place at the Australian Masters gave him confidence to regain his Asian tour card and he won his first start two weeks ago. He w/d last week after one round in the Philippines but I am willing to forgive that, as a player who beat Tiger head to head in his first pro start he has something about him.
Chapchai Nirat wasn't on my radar to start with but as I searched for a bet he struck me as being an interesting contender. He has improved with every start at DLF - mc/30/11 and has twice been 5th in the Indian Open. He also won the SAIL Open in India three years ago with a record breaking score of 32 under! so clearly likes the environment. He has started this season on the Asian tour with finishes of 6th and 38th but his GIR stats caught my eye - 4th each time and that will hold him in good stead this week. He has won a co-sanctioned event before so the better quality field should hold no fears - he just needs a few putts to fall.
February 14th 15.56
No internet connection on a Tuesday for four hours is not good!! Anyway - a quick summary of bets so far
Avantha Masters
Chapchai Nirat 0.2 ew 100/1
Kieran Pratt 0.25 ew 80/1
Northern Trust Open
Trevor Immelman 0.75 ew 125/1
Jimmy Walker 0.2 ew 100/1 + 0.4 top ten 10/1
Andres Romero 0.25 ew 125/1
Kevin Stadler 0.5 top ten 14/1
February 14th 10.48
It looks like being a busy week with so many events on so stay tuned on Twitter for bets as they come in - they will be published there first - SBIdotcom.
Trevor Immelman 0.75 ew 125/1 Jimmy Walker 0.2 ew 100/1 + 0.4 top ten 10/1
February 13th 23.15
After a long evening of pondering over the Avantha Masters I have finally gone for one bet - Chapchai Nirat - I took 100/1 ew for 0.2 pts you can still get 100/20 at Unibet or Betfair
February 13th 19.39
Usually I have a pretty established mindset as to who I want to back each week - with the Avantha Masters I am still a little stumped. In the Northern Trust Open one player has to go in the book straight away - bookmakers are still underestimating Mark Wilson and at 90/1 he is a 0.5 ew play - 80/1 is very very acceptable.
February 13th 10.15
Very much a PPP week - picks played pathetically - things are tough when I am on a roll like this but it's what golf betting is like backing outsiders as I do. This week we have the Northern Trust Open and the Avantha Masters from the DLF course in India headlining but there is also a great support cast with six other events including the return of my favourite tour - the Nationwide Tour which kicks off in Columbia.
February 11th 10.22
I have added a small bet on Jonas Blixt at Pebble Beach - personally I have taken 350/17.5 on Betfair - best bookie price is 100/1 across the board 1/5 4 so 0.2 ew. On the Nationwide tour at the end of last year in 10 events he had 5 top 5 finishes including 3 runner up slots. He led the putting stats on the poa anna greens at Torrey Pines, was t6th at the PBI at the end of last year and has the easier course to play today.
February 9th 10.17
As I said earlier in the year I will be taking a much closer look at the Champions tour this season and it is a different mindset to other golf events as realistically only about 25 golfers have a chance of winning each event. This week I have gone for Jay Don Blake - 0.75 ew 20/1. I would have him at around the 12/14 mark for this. He eventually won on the seniors tour in Korea in September and followed it up with a win in the season ending Charles Schwab Championship. He came out firing on all cylinders when 2nd in Hawaii and I think that will have shaken off any rust which bodes well for this week as he has been 9th and 6th here on his seasonal bow the last two years.
February 8th 18.35
I have been a bit busy over the last few days so I had best summarise the picks for Pebble Beach
Bryce Molder - 0.5 ew 40/1 A very simple pick as he is in great form and provided he can figure out how to play his nemsis hole the 14th then he should come close - at least he has now won on the PGA tour.
Bud Cauley - 0.5 ew 66/1 Young players have come to the fore so far this season and they don't come much more talented than Cauley. For a change he gets to play courses he has knowledge of as he was t6th at the Pebble Beach invitational three months ago.
John Mallinger - 0.25 ew 125/1 He maybe a non winner on tour but at least he has won the PBI in 2010. His form in this event is well documented and he already has been 2nd in his home state of California this season.
Matt Every - 0.1 win 175/1 + 0.4 top ten 14/1 The season has also been punctuated by young players having final round meltdowns - Every had his in Hawaii. Maybe he will be inspied by the comeback win of Stanley. He has some really good course form and has also played here loads of times in the PBI.
Jeff Maggert - 0.2 ew 100/1 A pick last week and he came up just shy on the Sunday. Has a good long term record here and starts out on the Shore course where he shot a course record 62 on Saturday last year.
February 7th 21.09
Last two picks for the AT&T at Pebble Beach are as follows
Bud Cauley - 0.5 ew 66/1
Matt Every - 0.1 win 175/1 Unibet and 0.4 top ten 14/1
February 7th 09.39
Final pick in Dubai (may have a look at first rd leader once tee times/weather known) goes to Victor Dubuisson - 0.25 ew 40/1 top Continental European and 0.1 ew 125/1 outright. He has improved every time he has played a course for the second time and had three really good rounds here last season. An improving very talented young player who I think will go onto multiple tour wins in time.
February 6th 21.35
I will explain a bit more on the AT&T bets tomorrow as I still have a few to add but don't think the 40/1 Bryce Molder will be beaten so 0.5 ew.
In Dubai I really did fancy Gonnet but so does everyone else and even at 66/1 he would have to be a borderline pick as he is winless in 196 starts and this is a top quality field. I do think Dyson is a very big price at 50/1 as he often starts around 25/33 these days. His course form isn't that bad as he has finished 7th twice here and judging from this quote he is always happy to return
"Something about this place that I really like, really like. I like the place, I like it as a whole. I like everything about it. So you're always good in spirits when you come and play here." 
He played pretty well in Abu Dhabi where he led the putting stats and was saved the ravages of the wind in Qatar on a course he really dislikes. How he can be a bigger price than Coetzee and Colsaerts who struggle to win is beyond me.
Jose Maria Olazabal is a stab in the dark but he has played well twice this season and on the other start in Abu Dhabi he said he was distracted by Ryder Cup duties. His best finish last season was here when 15th and of course he won here in 1998 on one of his few appearances. I do have one other player in mind but will probably back him in a side market.
February 6th 17.23
Second bet of the week AT&T Pebble Beach - John Mallinger 0.25 ew 125/1 Ladbrokes - to get bets first follow me on Twitter SBIdotcom
February 6th 14.18
This week I will be tipping avery player I back!! Starting in Dubai - Jose Maria Olazabal 0.2 ew 200/1 Tote/Betfred
February 6th 12.12
A weird week and an annoying one at that - personally my bank balance rose whilst the tips on here look poor. I have a bruised shin for kicking myself for not tipping Lawrie whilst backing him myself and I was lucky to lay back some Frazr at around 7/1 as he went into weekend meltdown. Anyway - onto this week where we have the AT&T from Pebble Beach where I have twice had the winner with Oberholser and Points and the Dubai Desert Classic where I haven't!!
February 5th 00.05
A pretty pathetic day from Frazar - remins me somewhat of Chris Kirk the other day hopefully one of Frazar, Rollins or even Maggert can secure a place tomorrow. i have added one more small bet for Qatar in the form of Victor Dubuisson who isn't far off the lead and had one of his best finishes in this event last year 0.2 ew 66/1 1/5 4
February 4th 18.38
Seeing as Frazar closed badly today and John Rollins is scything through the pack I would recommend 0.25 ew 66/1 1/5 4
February 4th 11.57
Sometimes the European tour drives me nuts! - Richard Finch on day one bogeyed the last two to cut the returns on the round one leader bet to nothing short of peanuts and played terribly first thing today to drop down the leaderboard. To add insult to injury last weeks pick Gonzalez has decided to play this week! I did have a small bet on Paul lawrie when Bet365 opened at 75 on Monday but as it was swiftly cut and everyone jumped on him with the weather forecast I didn't bother tipping him up at much reduced prices! On the plus side Frazar is going nicely in Phoenix and Maggert isn't too far out of the places so it's not all doom and gloom. A busy weekend researching the AT&T at Pebble Beach is in store and as for the Dubai Desert Classic - maybe I should just back this weeks picks again!!
February 1st 14.44
I have added a small 0.1 ew bet on Richard Finch for rd 1 leader in Qatar at 125/1 - a good wind player with an early tee time who has been starting quick and was 2nd after rd 1 last year in similar conditions
February 1st 12.32
I had five players listed for the Phoenix Open and have tipped four - the one that got away and will probably win is John Rollins as although I had a few quid at Ladbrokes who opened at 66/1 that was the lowest price I was happy to back him at.
DA Points - slightly disappointed with his 8th place last week but I take heart from the fact that he actually tied with Snedeker at eight under for the three rounds played on the South course. He has had a great start to the year - which included his career best finish at the Sony. Last year he finally made the cut at Scottsdale finishing 18th and in his current form I can see him finishing a lot lower.
YE Yang - strikes me as a horses for courses player and has been 3rd and 8th here in two starts. He was a bit rusty last week but his odds are worth a small play - the 95 on Betfair is quite insulting really!
Harrison Frazar - I have had this in mind for Frazar for a while as it is one tournamnet he has come close to winning several times and now he has the monkey off his back he may prevail. He got off to a cracking start to the year with a 5th and 2nd in Hawaii and I am happy to forgive the missed cut at the Humana - at least it means his price has doubled. Three times he has come close in Scottsdale - in 99 he was 3rd entering the final round but was already 7 shots back and slumped to a 73 finishing 6th. In 2003 he led into the final round and remained competitive to finish 3rd. In 2005 he again was 3rd but was too far back and shot a very poor 78. Now he has won I can see him gaining revenge on a course that he says fits his eye perfectly.
Sticking with players in form in the unlikely shape of Jeff Maggert. The veteran has been injured for much of the last four years - initially with a broken rib and then last year underwent shoulder surgery. He is now fully fit and it certainly shows, he was 13th at Q school and in his first start this year led the Sony entering the final round but played poorly on the Sunday. He put that behind him and finished 5th at the Humana and now leads the scoring average and all round stats on tour for the year (albeit form just two starts). Going back over the years he has some good finishes at Phoenix including a 3rd, 8th,10th and 11th so he can certainly play the course. In his current form I think he could be a surprise package this week.
February 1st 10.07
Apologies for the lack of clarification on bets - but here goes - Qatar first.
Richard Finch - his form so far this year reminds me of when he won a few events back in 2007/8 where we started to see him around the top of the leaderboard most weeks.He was 2nd heading into the final round in Joburg before having a nightmare final round and was 4th going into the weekend in Abu Dhabi. He has a solid record in Qatar including a 4th and was 9th last year and definitely has the ability to play in the forecast wind just think of his 69 in the Nordea Masters final round last year - next best was 72!
David Howell is now based in Dubai in the winter and will be well acclimatised. Admittedly he is not the force he was but he has a great long term record in Qatar with five top ten finishes from twelve starts including last year when 5th. His five year exemption for winning the PGA Championship runs out this year so he has to improve his golf. Although he has gotten off to a poor start this year he still has the ability to bounce back with a top ten finish. He may have some emotional thoughts about Qatar this week as I believe it may have been one of the last events his Mum saw him play before she sadly died last year.
Jose Manuel Lara - a bit of a long shot but he caught my eye last week in Abu Dhabi. He has never played well there beforewith finishes of 61/mc/wd/mc/mc/mc so the fact that he was only three shots off the lead at the cut made me interested in him this week. Admittedly he has missed his last three cuts here but he has been 4th before and could well be continuing the form which saw him finish 8th and 11th at the end of 2011. I think playing him in the top Euro market is the way to go with 20/1 for a top four finish could allow him to finish as low as around 12th.
January 31st 14.42
Full list of bets as follows
Qatar
Richard Finch - 0.25 ew 150/1 (6 places) + 0.5 top 10 16/1
Jose Manuel Lara - 0.25 ew top Continental European 80/1 1/4 4
David Howell - 0.5 top 10 18/1
Phoenix
DA Points - 0.5 ew 66/1 (6 places)
YE Yang - 0.25 ew 66/1
Harrison Frazar - 0.25 ew 100/1 (6 places)
Jeff Maggert - 0.25 ew 150/1
January 30th 18.14
I really shouldn't say things like I did this morning! - also going in early on DA Points in Phoenix 66/1 6 places Ladbrokes - take away the North course he was actually tied with Sendeker on the South course at -8 last week. - 0.5 ew
January 30th 17.52
Actually going back on what I said this morning for Qatar - early bet on Richard Finch as he doesn't mind the wind and happy with 150/1 6 places and 16/1 top ten at Ladbrokes - 0.25 ew and 0.5 on the top ten
January 30th 10.12
A bit gutted about Points - let down by his 70 on the easier course - cost him the place though I doubt I am as gutted as Kyle Stanley or indeed his short priced backers! Anyway onto a new week - I will get the tipping results page updated today - and research is nearly finished on the Qatar Masters and Phoenix Open. This week unless something jumps out from the start I may wait for tee times before tipping anything as they often play a huge part in both events.
January 28th 10.28
A poor start to the season from me but I soldier on - at the Farmers Insurance Justin Leonard is worth a bet - 0.4 ew 66/1 (1/5 4). He was 2nd in the Fall and was 5th on his last appearance here back in 2008. DA points was a disappointment on the easy course yesterday but weirdly sits exacyly where he did last year at the cut so there is still a remote hope - need the wind to blow for the course to show its teeth!
January 27th 14.12
Glad I kept things small scale in Abu Dhabi but will have a look for any potential bets now the cut has been made. The third edition of our newsletter has just been sent - included is a look at a new free "tipping" site which has recommended just three bets and had winners at 9/4 and 11/1 - to receive the weekly newsletter simply send an email to info@sportsbettingindex.com with Newletter in the subject line.
January 26th 09.58
I have had a third player I have wanted to back all week for the Farmers Insurance and that is Californian Brendan Steele. He has shown some his best form in his home state and last year was 17th here - paired with the returning Tiger Woods in the final round he best him by five strokes. He is out on the easy course first today and for a man who won on the PGA tour last season in his rookie year and played in the last two ball of the PGA Championship on the final day which his good friend Keegan Bradley won then 150/1 does seem a big price - 0.2 e/w.
January 25th 12.09
A quick recap on the Abu Dhabi bets -
Keith Horne - played here twice and finished 20th and 49th - not especially inspiring. However in 2006 he led by 2 after the first round and in 2010 he was joint leader so at 225/1 it doesn't take a lot to have an interest to see if he can do it again 0.1 ew. He is last to tee off on day one and if my memory serves me right that's what happened back in 2010.
Ricardo Gonzalez - his outright price has crashed from 400 to 180 on Betfair since Steve Palmer tipped him up but I prefer the top ten play in what is a stellar field. He has great course form including a 4th and 8th and overall seems to like playing in either the desert heat or in the ehat of Spain - 0.5 pt top ten 16/1
Shane Lowry - had a rough start to 2011 after breaking a bone in his wrist but once he found his form in two separate spells he was 4th in top class fields at Valderrama and Wentworth. He palyed here in 2010 and was 4th and tbh he is a much better player now. He has a wonderful all round game and in his last four starts of 2011 was top five in the all round stats for each event. He says he loves playing in the desert on courses like Abu Dhabi as he can take driver off the tee on most holes and he is both long and straight. He is one of the few at a big price who I think could contend with the big guns hence 0.5 ew at 80/90.
January 25th 11.20
Last year I picked DA Points when he won at Pebble Beach - the reasoning behind the bet last year was that he was in form having had some great results in events he had played poorly before, he had some good course form (admittedly some of it hidden in a different event) and felt at home on the courses and was apparently inpsired by fellow Illinois resident Mark Wilson having won. Step forward 12 months and much the same applies - he is back in California in an event where he has been 9th and 5th the last two years and syas he feels really comfortable at Torrey Pines. He has already had two starts - 12th in the Champions event and 6th at the Sony - bear in mind his previous form there was 64/mc/76/mc. In both those events he was 3rd in GIR - a facet of the game much needed here. Add in the fact that as in 12 months ago Mark Wilson has just won and we have the makings of a decent bet.
Second pick is Michael Thompson who I think is destined to have a big year on tour. In 2008 he was the best amateur in the world before turning pro - playing as an amateur in the US Open in that year he was tied 29th here at Torrey Pines - a very good achievement and last year after a good start in this event he faded but cashed his first ever paycheck on the PGA tour - Torrey Pines holds some good memories. The week after that US Open he was invited to play at River Highlands and was in the top five at the cut - he put that experience to good use in 2011 when he finished 4th at that venue. He added a further 3rd placed finish at Sea Island (another coastal venue) and came out quickly this year at the Sony with a 6th placed finish. In the off season he travelled to Thailand and was 3rd there - he is obviously on a great run of form and at 100/1 is worth a decent bet. Best prices here
January 24th 20.12
I will be back tomorrow with reasonings behind the bets for this week - it's been a busy few days working on an update to the Independent Bookmakers guide (£250 worth of free bets for £49 - click here) plus this weeks newslette rand I have run out of time for the day!
January 24th 14.52
Final bet in Abu Dhabi is the top ten bet I referred to earlier - have settled for the 16/1 0.5 pts about Ricardo Gonzalez who has been 4th and 8th here before and overall has a very good desert record
January 24th 10.34
I have bet one player outright for Abu Dhabi - Shane Lowry 0.5 ew 90/1 - if you can't get on that then 80/1 with 6 places is fine. I do have one top ten bet for this event but am still waiting to get on. Best prices here
January 23rd 20.43
I admit to struggling a bit with the Abu Dhabi event - it really is a superb field and for a man who backs outsiders it is tricky! I have had one bet so far just in case lightening strikes three times - Keith Horne has played here twice and finished 20th and 49th - not especially inspiring. However in 2006 he led by 2 after the first round and in 2010 he was joint leader so at 225/1 it doesn't take a lot to have an interest to see if he can do it again 0.1 ew.
I have also just backed Michael Thompson in the Farmers Insurance - 0.5 ew 100/1.
Back tomorrow with a few more bets and in depth thoughts
January 23rd 15.57
Swiftly moving on from last nights humiliation - an early bet for the Farmers Insurance - I bagged some 66/1 but DA Points 1 pt ew 50/1 is perfectly acceptable - he will be very popular this week
January 22nd 09.37
I wish I had followed my pondering with Watson who is bang in contention in Hawaii whereas Faxon faded after a great opening round - one thing is for sure I won't be bothering staying up til gone 3 am to find out the result! Hopefully they will get the Humana Challenge finished today - picks Kirk and Todd both have every chance of producing a return in the event.
Nest week in the US yet again we have a multi course event in California with the Farmers Insurance from Torrey Pines whilst the European Tour leaves South Africa and heads to Abu Dhabi for the first leg of the desert swing where Martin Kaymer has been a standing dish in recent years.
January 20th 12.56
This season I aim to to pay closer attention tot he Champions Tour as it is now covered by most books and can throw up some value. Over the last few days I have been looking at the season opening Mitsubishi Electric event from Hawaii which starts tonight. I pondered a lot over Tom Watosn who does seem a little overpriced at 28/1 but in the end I have sided with a little bit of an unknown. Brad Faxon started on this tour last year and in the few events he played his putting still remained his strong suit and he did manage a win albeit in a rain shortened event. This course rewards the top putters and also Faxon has won and been 2nd in Hawaii in the Sony. At 66/1 he is worth a small investment of 0.2 ew - prices here
January 17th 15.02
One thing leapt out at me whilst doing my research for the Humana and that was the link between winners at Annandale and winners here at what was the Bob Hope. Bill Haas has won at both venues as has Chad Campbell whilst DJ Trahan has just the two PGA victories and they were at these two venues. Add in the fact that Trahan beat Durant in a playoff and he had also won the Bob Hope then I think it can't be a coincidence! You can probably now see why Chris Kirk was first on my list having won at Annandale in 2011 and he also held every chance here last season eventually finishing 7th. He said he struggled in the first round in Kapalua as he was forced to play on his own when Glover withdrew but played very well the next three days to climb to 7th and in the Sony he played OK. I am expecting a big season from him this year and think the bookmakers are severely underestimating him this week.
Sung-Hoon Kang - played at his best in multi course pro-ams last season - lost in a playoff in the Nationwide pro-am and then secured his PGA card when 3rd at Disney. His other best performance came at Annandale when 7th - so hoping that all that evidence points to a good showing this week.
Derek Lamely - strikes me as a horses for courses type of player and has been 18th and 13th here the last two years and that 13th came despite having a quintuple bogey nine in the second round. He is a collective 24 under par in his four rounds on the host course so clearly likes it here.
Brendon Todd - least confident of the picks but he grew up playing alongside Webb Simpson and was just as good as him and says he has been inspired by what Simpson achieved last year. That showed when he won the Q school and played well last week in Hawaii to finish 13th.
George McNeill - played OK in the Sony last week and with his strike rate I don't really want to leave him out especially as he was 18th on his only start here.
January 17th 13.29
I am actually going to double up my bet on Kang so that is now 0.2 ew 250/1 and 0.4 on the top 10 at 20/1 - will go into the details a bit later today.
Reasons for Hoey in the Volvo Champions basically just comes down to price - I don't see why he should be 80/1 when he won twice last year including at the Dunhill Links holding off such players as Rory. The Fancourt Links is tough especially if the wind plays and he should be capable of playing in those conditions - most of his wins have been on exposed courses. Whilst he hasn't played much in South Africa recently he was 2nd in the Africa Open two years ago.
January 17th 09.54
Quite a few small bets on some rags for the Humana Challenge
Derek Lamely - 0.2 ew 300/1 + 0.4 top 10 28/1
Brendon Todd - 0.1 ew 275/1 + 0.2 top 10 18/1
Sung-Hoon Kang - 0.1 ew 250/1 + 0.2 top 10 20/1
January 16th 17.44
I can't help but call it the Bob Hope - but I have had a couple of early bets for the Humana Challenge
Chris Kirk - I took 80/1 - 1 pt ew 66/1 6 places Ladbrokes
George McNeill - took 100/1 - 0.25 ew 100/1 6 places Ladbrokes
January 16th 16.03
Whilst I managed to get a few quid matched on Betfair on Horsey and Mulroy when they had the wrong market up for the Volvo Champions the only bet I will be putting up is Michael Hoey 0.25 ew 80/1
January 15th 18.06
One last little bet for the Sony on a player who has been 4th and 10th here before - 0.1 pt ew Doug Labelle II 200/1 Sportingbet
January 15th 15.08
A nice result in the end from Joburg with Jamie Elson - maybe I could have been a bit braver with the cal!! You will notice I will be adding some plays in running which you can always follow here or on Twitter where you will find us at SBIdotcom.
We need an Elson type round from McNeill in the Sony tonight but Ames still holds a chance. Next week we have the limited field Volvo Golf Champions in South Africa and the newly named Humana Challenge which is basically the old Bob Hope reduced to four rounds.
January 14th 21.59
Added Stephen Ames for the Sony 1/4 pt ew 50/1 1/4 4 - fits the winners profile - gutted that Rollins tripled the first today!!
January 14th 11.57
Have added a small in running play on Danny Willett at 40/1 - 1/4 pt ew 1/5 4 - twice been 4th here and shot -5 round the tough course in round 2
January 13th 12.20
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January 11th 11.42
In the Sony there are several pointers to use which can narrow down the field and last year these gave me the winner so I see no reason to look elsewhere! Basically look for a player who has won on tour before, preferably mid 30's and over, has a large bank of course form though not necessarily a top five finish (it's the experience that is more important) and finally someone whose strong suit is accuracy and who has shown a high level of accuracy on the course.
John Rollins - now aged 36 and a three time winner on tour - he usually only plays here after he has played in the Champions event so interesting he has flown out. Played here six times and been 20th and 8th last two starts. Combining DA and GIR stats he is amongst the top 20 on tour.
Heath Slocum - 37 year old with four titles. Nine appearances with a 10th place his best finish in 08. Last year was 2nd on tour for both DA and GIR - sadly he couldn't hole a putt. However he changed his grip after the PGA Championship which led to an improvement in his results. This course is made for his game and if he can hole some putts this week he will challenge.
George McNeill - I thought he was younger than 36 but only becasue he hasn't been on tour that long. Only has the one win but has six runners up slots - two of them last year. Has played here four times and been 13/17/7/mc - the last result was in 2010 when he had a very bad year. In 2011 he played superbly well to get his card back. In theory the course shouldn't suit as he is not the most accurate player on tour but it seems to suit his eye and his GIR stats here are very good and he has twice been 4th in the all round stats. With his top five strike rate he has to be a decent bet at 125/1 e/w.
January 11th 09.54
A bit more news on this weeks Joburg selections - a further snippet on Havret - since the end of last season he has also gone back to his old coach - quite often a good sign.
Josh Cunliffe - Joburg resident - all his best form has come around his home city. he won the SA amateur in 2005 beating George Coetzee, most of his top tens on the Sunshine Tour have been in the area and was 10th here two years ago. He has also twice qualified for the Open round this course finishing 1st in 09 and 3rd in 10. He is coming off his best ever results in the the three co-sanctioned events and was 3rd in the Ernie Els Invitational before Christmas beating Coetzee and Oosthuizen. I can't see him troubling the top players but a repeat of his 2010 finish is certainly not a 28/1 shot.
Jamie Elson - appears to play the same courses well in each of the last two years and has been 30th and 4th here. Buoyed by the dramatic way he got his card at Q school holing a 40 foot birdie putt on the final hole to scrape in. Toyed with the top English market at 33/1 but better value in the top ten finish at 18/1.
Emiliano Grillo - young Argentinian who has won some of the top amateur titles in the US over the last three years. Only nineteen but got through Q school at first attempt finishing 8th and was tied 10th last week. Wouldn't be surprised to see him win a tour event this season and at 200/1 is worth a small bet just in case this is the week!
January 10th 15.03
One final very small bet in the Joburg Open on talented youngster Emiliano Grillo 0.1 pt ew 200/1 Stan James. I have backed three players in the Sony Open and will be back later today/tomorrow with some further info.
John Rollins 0.5 ew 80/1
Heath Slocum 0.5 ew 100/1
George McNeill 0.5 ew 125/1
Best prices available here
January 10th 10.35
With so many of my outsiders finishing just outside the frame last season I will probably be doing a few more top ten bets this season especially where there are short priced favourites so here are two for South Africa - reasons why later and I am still considering one more small bet
Josh Cunliffe 1 pt top 10 28/1 Betfred/Tote
Jamie Elson 0.5 pts top 10 18/1 Betfred/Tote
January 9th 18.24
Bookmakers are being knocked over everytime they put up 4/1 for Schwartzel at the Joburg Open and whilst he should be a short priced favourite - 7/2 does seem a tad skinny. There are only a couple of players I could fancy in this field and will wait for specials markets apart from one - Gregory Havret. He had some great form towards the end of last season which wasn't that long ago and finally got back in the winners enclosure in a small event in Mauritius just before Christmas. If he had any course form he would be trading at 25/1 so I am happy to back him at 40/1. He hasn't played in South Africa for some time so it is interesting he tees up this week, when he did play here he acquitted himself well and can boast a couple of 2nd placed finishes in the South African Open and Dunhill Championship so seems quite happy in the climate -
1/2 pt ew 40/1 Coral - rest of the bets tomorrow
January 9th 12.17
Quick update - Kevin Na still has a chance of a place over in Hawaii but he needs to play like he did in round two to get there! This week we have the Joburg Open with a huge field and bets will be few and small plus the Sony Open one of my favourite events having bagged Mark Wilson last year at around 100/1 - the same price I got on Azinger back in 2000 when he won. With such fond memories I have some strong ideas on potential winners but I doubt we will see many prices until tomorrow afternoon.
January 5th 21.55
Not too bad a start to the week in South Africa - sadly I didn't get chance to watch any as I am suffering from a bout of the lurgy. I was very surprised to see Na drift all the way out to 50 for the Hyundai and I had a small top up, O'Hair has been a big drifter but I read somewhere he has remodelled his swing so who knows how he will play.
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January 4th 11.03
My original short list for the Hyundai Champions event included Byrd, O'Hair, Sabbatini and Laird as well as Na but with the first four players their good course form is built into the price. This season I am trying to go back to thinking outside the square and backing players who may have no obvious course from or backing players in events where there are certain pointers to them. This held me in good stead last season but I let myself down backing obvious picks where everything was built into the price and you will never win in the long run backing those selections.
Anyway - back to Kevin Na - obviously he has never played the Plantation course at Kapalua as his win at the Justin Timberlake was his first on tour. Since the inception of the Fedex Cup and the resultant Fall Finish events it has paid to follow the winners of those FF events especially on resort courses which tend to be wide and open like Kapalua. Last year Byrd and Garrigus fought out a playoff (winners at Summerlin and Magnolia), in 2010 Laird having won at Summerlin was 4th here, 2009 Love was 3rd having won Magnolia and 2008 saw Chopra win this event having won at Tesoro (he had also been 2nd at Summerlin) whilst the Magnolia winner Ames finished 3rd. I think there is enough evidence to give Na a good chance plus he has twice finished in the top five at the Sony on Hawaii on his seasonal bow.
January 3rd 18.56
A bit more meat on the bones for the Africa Open picks - not a huge long winded explanation but some pointers
Steven O'hara - 4th here last year and the year before whilst he was 43rd he was 5th for the all round stats - he simply couldn't putt. He will be determined to tie up his card for next year quickly having won it back well at Q school.
Robert Dinwiddie - had a good chance to win here last year. All his best form seems to have come in South Africa and his last win on the Challenge Tour came in Kenya early on in 2010 so he is clearly at home in the region
John Peterson - US player who was one of the best college players last year and turned pro soon after finishing 2nd in a Nationwide Tour event. He could be anything but the big price is a bit insulting
Allan Versfeld - very interesting to me, Sunshine Tour rookie of the year 2011 having started off with a 7th in the co-sanctioned Joburg Open last January. Had a very consistent season with plenty of top five finishes. Has some good course form - in March 2010 was joint leader of the strokeplay portion of the SA amateur round East London and then made it all the way to the final before losing
January 3rd 10.22
Other bets for the Africa Open are as follows
Robert Dinwiddie 0.25 pts ew 100/1 Ladbrokes 6 places
Allan Versfeld 0.2 pts ew 250/1 Ladbrokes 6 places
John Peterson 0.1 pt ew 250/1
January 2nd 17.09
First bet for European Tour - Africa Open Steven O'Hara 1/4 pt ew 100/1 Ladbrokes - very generously offering 6 places. Best prices here
January 2nd 14.39
First bet for 2012 is Kevin Na in the Hyundai - 0.5 pts ew 33/1 generally available - back with thoughts later. Best prices here
January 2nd 10.54
Good morning and a Happy New Year to you all. This week sees the start of the new golfing season with the Hyundai Tournament of Champions from the Plantation course on Kapalua, Hawaii - note this doesn't start til Friday plus the co-sanctioned European/Sunshine Tour event the Africa Open from the East London Club. Tips will be going back to the old style to start the year with just the bets initially followed by any reasonings later - here's to a profitable 2012!


 
 
 
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