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december 17th 12.14
Probably the last blog post before Christmas and New Year as I have tried to wind things down - so I hope you all have a good one - still time to fill our wallets before 2016 so below are my last couple of bets.
The Philippine Open is already reduced to 54 holes due to the typhoon that has saturated the course. I really like the chances of Mardan Mamat who we were on in November last year in the Philippines. His record from eleven starts in the country now reads two wins, a 4th and a pair of 5th place finishes - no wonder he calls it his second home! The veteran knows how to win unlike many in front of him in the betting - he has three wins in the last thirteen months - £7 ew 70/1 £33 ew 66/1 £40 win 70 Betfair
For a big priced outsider I will have a go at American teenager Micah Lauren Shin who was 3rd on this course in a weak event a few months ago. This is probably above his league but with only 54 holes to play I think it increases the randomness £10 ew 500/1 £15 win 500 Betfair
Lastly - my two antepost picks for the Coral Welsh National run on the 27th December - I have backed
Bob Ford £30 ew 33/1 + £20 45 Betfair
Woodford County £20 ew 25/1 + £10 34/1 Betfair
december 9th 11.26
As I said on Twitter this week - it's been a long year and I am now winding down for a break so only the bets this week for the Thailand Golf Championship
Marcus Fraser
£100 top 5 11/1
£50 top 5 12/1 Betfair
£20 ew FRL 50/1
Yusaku Miyazato
£40 ew 80/1
KT Kim
£30 ew 66/1
Masahiro Kawamura
£25 win 250 average Betfair
£25 top 5 33/1
december 2nd 11.46
We came close with Bourdy last week - sadly the triple bogey stopped him in his tracks which was a shame as I think Schwartzel might well have wilted a bit under pressure. Bit short of time this week - so just the bets and a brief explanation about Dodt
Nedbank Challenge
Kiradech Aphibarnrat £40 ew 33/1 £25 win 34 Betfair
Australian PGA Championship
David Bransdon £25 ew 80/1 + £30 120
Mauritius Golf Masters
Julien Guerrier £30 ew 40/1
Victor Riu £30 ew 40/1
Ho Tram Open
Andrew Dodt £50 ew 80/1 - this is the bet I like the most this week and would be bigger if I could get more on and if he had an early tee time. This is the neck of the woods where he plays his best golf - indeed as a newly turned pro back in 2008 he lost in a playoff in Vietnam. The course reminds me a bit of some Australian linksy courses - such as Moonah Links and New South Wales where Dodt has a good record. Moonah was actually designed by Greg Norman as was this weeks course plus Dodt won on the Greg Norman designed Brookwater course last year. I just think he is being underestimated this week
november 24th 17.52
It is difficult to oppose Jordan Spieth in this weeks Australian Open but as Adam Scott proved in last weeks third round when he was already a 1/4 shot - even a short priced favourite can have a bad day - so here goes!
Greg Chalmers hasn't had a great year but he often comes alive on his returns home - in 2011 he won both the Australian PGA and Open and last year was 4th here and won the Australian PGA again - his price just seems a little big to me £30 ew 80/1
Matthew Guyatt hasn't always been a golfer - although a talented youngster he spent much of his time playing rugby and has returned to golf later in life. You could say that the recently turned 40 year old is probably playing some of the best golf of his life at the moment capped by a 6th place last week in the Masters. He should have fond memories of the course having played well as an amateur and I think he is a bit overpriced @ 200/1 - £20 ew + £15 Betfair 200. With an early tee time that could be advantageous I have also backed him in the first round leader market as he is riding a wave of confidence £15 ew 125/1
From one end of the age spectrum to the other and 17 year old Zach Murray who earlier this year shot the lowest round of 65 around here in the Australian Amateur strokeplay section. He opened up nicely last week to lie 8th after the first round and with an early tee time maybe he can slightly better that! £10 ew 250/1 FRL
november 24th 11.05
Jaidee was woeful on the back nine on Sunday and in the end the only return I got was a long standing e/w bet on Grace for the money list courtesy of my final bet with VC before they shut my account!. This week we have the Alfred Dunhill Championship and Australian Open - I will start with the former as I still have one pick to go in the latter!
When the first prices went up I was slightly disappointed with the initial price of Gregory Bourdy but Ladbrokes duly obliged with the 50/1 I was after. He has great course form at all the courses that seem to throw up good correlations with Leopard Creek such as Oitavos Dunes and Royal Park Roveri. On his last two visits here he has been 12th and 3rd and although it has been an indifferent season for the Frenchman he does have a history of playing well in South Africa when he ventures there £50 ew 50/1
I was rather surprised at the early prices for veteran Tjaart van der Walt yesterday, fair enough he has been poor in Europe this year but has found some form on returning home. He has had numerous top five finishes in co-sanctioned events in the past and was 8th here last year - had to be worth a pop at the price £20 ew 200/1
Sticking with the home contingent Hennie Otto is simply a play on price - I would expect him to be more like a 50/1 shot at home in this field so the 80/1 was duly taken for £40 ew
Last of the home contingent is Jbe Kruger who finished runner-up on the Asian tour last week so is in fine fettle. A bit like van der Walt he does struggle to get over the line but he has managed a pair of top tens here in recent years so thats probably the best market for him £25 win 95 + £30 9/1 top ten
Felipe Aguilar is an infrequent visitor to South Africa but was 3rd here on his last visit in 2011 and filled the same spot in the Joburg Open in 2013. Whilst he is a bit hit and miss his 13th in the Dunhill Links last month reads well in this field so a quote in three figures is just enough to trigger a bet £20 ew 140/1
Finally and what is probably a throwaway bet - £10 win 400 Ross McGowan - did well at Q School last week and has lots of South African form including a 5th here years ago and he won on the Sunshine Tour in Zambia earlier this year.
november 18th 12.55
Hit the crossbar last week with Jaidee just missing out on the playoff and Wagner just missing out on the places - below is a rundown of this weeks bets
DP World Tour Championship
Thongchai Jaidee - see no reason why I need to ditch him - continuously underestimated by the layers £30 ew 40/1 + £40 50 Betfair
Gary Stal - a return to the UAE may inspire an upturn in form where he was 1st and 4th earlier in the year £20 ew 300/1 + £5 480 average Betfair
Kristoffer Broberg - we recently had Pieters and Grillo finally making their breakthrough wins and backing them up with victory the following week and Knox nearly following suit + Broberg has history having achieved that feat on the Challenge Tour £35 win 130 Betfair
Australian Masters
Aaron Pike - top five in his last two starts in smaller events - happy memories of Huntingdale where he led this event after rounds one and two as an amateur £30 ew 120/1 average
Jordan Zunic - surprise winner of the New Zealand Open earlier this year and just finding some form atm. Has some history around here having reached the semi-finals of the Australian Amateur £15 ew 200/1 + £10 top 10 14/1
RSM Classic
Scott Brown - horses for courses player who excels on these coastal tests, returned to form with a 5th in Mexico last week £50 ew 80/1
Smylie Kaufman - one of the youngsters who has already won this "season" and has some course experience having finished 2nd in the SEC Collegiate event here in 2014
Andrew Loupe - in theory the course shouldn't suit but he has been 4th and 6th here in his college days. Won in the tour finals and already has two top ten finishes in the last four PGA starts £25 ew 150/1 + £30 top 10 16/1
Dunlop Phoenix
Yuki Inamori three top five finishes in decent events recently for the youngster - returns to the course where he shot a career best 64 last year on his way to finishing 11th £30 ew 50/1 + £25 60 average
november 13th 10.29
Rather than clog up Twitter with a long list of my European Tour Q School bets I have listed them below. Over the past few years it has paid to stick with players who are aged 26-36 - maybe the youngsters find it too much pressure and the older players struggle with the six rounds. It also pays to stick with players who have been there and done it before - four of the last five winners had posted a top ten finish before and even Parry backed up his win with a top five next time. The only exception I have made is Kinhult who just seemed too big to ignore on Betfair as he has been playing in Spain the last few weeks including an emphatic win on the minor Gecko tour - he is a very talented individual
Marcus Kinhult £30 win 38 Betfair
Richard McEvoy £5 win 85 Betfair
Justin Walters £20 ew 100/1
Est Goya £20 ew 80/1 + £10 80 Betfair
Marco Crespi £20 ew 125/1 + £20 160 Betfair
november 11th 11.34
Still in quite a bit of pain so just a quick rundown of this weeks plays - don't forget to keep an eye on Twitter feed for in running plays where last week we got winner Malnati on board @ 100/1
BMW Masters
Thongchai Jaidee is having a very consistent season where outside playing the States or defending the Nordea Masters he hasn't missed a cut all season. He turned in his best ever finish at Sheshan last week when 11th, he tops the scoring averages of those who have played all three events here and was 2nd in 2013 £60 ew 50/1 + £25 60 Betfair
Rafael Cabrera Bello is incredibly fragile in the mix but gets in contention so often as he did so here in 2013 when he tied for the lead with a round to go - best way to go is a back to lay so £75 100 Betfair
Taiheiyo Masters
Michio Matsumuru has been 1/3/4/5 in his last seven events and has course form of 2/4/6/6 in seven attempts. Happy to take on Bubba Watson who hasn't broken the top twenty in two starts here £40 ew 35/1
World Classic Championship
Pariya Junhasavasdikul I tipped when the European tour visited Laguna National last year for a co-sanctioned event. He finished a respectable 33rd with all rounds under par. Laguna National was the scene of his first pro win back in 2008 in the Singapore Masters and he followed that up with a 3rd and 7th in subsequent years albeit in weak fields in each year but it just goes to show that he has an affinity for the course.He closed with a pair of 68's last week to climb to 12th his best finish for some time and led the ballstriking stats for the week - he will need that around here £25 ew 125/1
OHL Classic
Johnson Wagner is a horses for courses player and a past winner here, He shot 69 in all four rounds last week and was 2nd for ballstriking - a key stat for the challenge that faces him this week £10 ew 80/1 + £50 ew 66/1
Ben Crane makes his first trip to Mayakoba but has form at all the relevant similar courses including his last two wins at Southwind and Sea Island. He also seems to come alive in the Fall £25 ew 125/1
Michael Thompson - after an earlier cock up with Oddschecker links I finally got on board! He seems at his best on short wind exposed coastal courses and has been in contention at some point in his last two starts. £16 win 180 £24 top 5 38 Betfair
Wes Roach - left field pick - loves it down here - 1st and 2nd in Mexico on tour, best PGA finish 4th Puerto Rico. Played here once when 23rd - led the putting stats that week £20 ew 350/1 + £10 350 Betfair
november 4th 15.04
Normally in reduced field events I struggle to find many worth backing but this week I have somehow found some value in five players - so a quick rundown on each.
Ian Poulter is a no brainer to me - this is his time of the year - November and December he has a 14.6% win rate and 36.6% top five. He is slowly finding some form and was 16th in Turkey last week despite feeling unwell before the start. He won this in 2012 on a different course and has been 2nd and 6th the last two years at Sheshan £50 ew 55/1 + £50 65 Betfair
Patrick Reed already has one WGC event to his name and he is certainly hitting top form again with 3rd in Hong Kong and 10th in Malaysia so he will be well acclimatised Reed £25 ew 40/1 + £50 win 45 Betfair
Thorbjorn Olesen has had a very in and out year but did manage a win at the Alfred Dunhill Links - an event he had previously been 2nd in. He was 6th on his debut here last year so seems a bit overpriced to me this week £25 ew 175/1 + £10 170 Betfair
Kyung Tae Kim has been in the form of his life in the Far East with five wins in his last thirteen starts which is pretty astonishing no matter what the quality of the fields. It would be no surprise to see him leave poor past Sheshan form behind £20 ew 100/1 + £15 155 average
My one massive priced outsider is Hiroshi Iwata who recently secured his PGA tour card. He hasn't played great in his first two starts but will feel far more comfortable in China especially on a course where he had a good chance of winning last year - finishing 3rd £30 ew 250/1 + £25 400 Betfair
november 4th 14.15
Apologies for the lack of a preview last week but it was nice to bag another winner on the European Tour with Victor Dubuisson.
I have had a dabble on the PGA tour this week as the only time I do well is when the big boys are away and with Jason Bohn as a short priced favourite it is worth having a crack. Scott Stallings is my number one pick as at least we know he can get the job done and has even won this event before albeit on a different course but he does play well in the Deep South. He recently returned from a three month tour ban where he "shopped" himself for mistakenly taking a banned substance for chronic fatigue. This could be to his advantage as he will certainly be fresher than most and his 16th at Summerlin really caught the eye as in three previous attempts there he had never played the weekend £45 ew 70/1 average + £15 80 Betfair
Second pick is a bit random - it will be interesting to see if Adam Hadwin can emulate fellow Canadian and friend Nick Taylor who both have very similar form on Canadian tour courses. Ben Coley and Steve Rawlings have both alluded to the fact that Jackson played similar to Colonial last year and Adam Hadwins' best finish of last season was 5th there. £25 win 140 + £25 top 5 33/1
The Western Australian Open takes place at the Royal Fremantle course this week and I have taken a small chance on local golfer Daniel Hoeve. He was a good amateur winning several events in Western Australia including one on this weeks course last year. He turned pro this year and whilst a best placed 13th in New Caledonia is hardly much to shout about he should be seen to better effect at "home" this week £15 win 240 average £15 top 5 50/1
october 27th 18.50
May not have time for a preview for this week so here are the bets
Turkish Airlines Open
Victor Dubuisson £30 ew 50/1 + £20 ew 45/1
Fabrizio Zanotti £20 ew 66/1 + £20 ew 50/1
CIMB Classic
Cameron Smith £25 win 120 + £10 ew 100/1 + £20 top 5 20/1
Alex Cejka £15 win 200 + £25 top 5 28/1
Jarryd Felton £20 win 60/1 + £30 top 5 12/1
october 21st 14.10
Its the final normal event of the European tour and we have travelled all the way to Hong Kong - I have three selections - one from the top, middle and bottom!
I don't like the win odds for Australian Marcus Fraser but strangely I do like the place odds. Put simply he doesn't win as often as he should but finishes top five on a regular basis especially in Asia where over the last four years in seventeen events he has seven top five finishes - two of them here on the Fanling course. He was 5th in his his last start at tree lined Woburn so he is worth a big play for a place - £170 13/2 split between Coral and Betfair.
Spaniards have a good long term record here and I have gone for two - firstly Javi Colomo. He led here after round one on his debut in 2012, was 5th in 2013 and 12th last year - he is obviously at home around here. He plays most of his golf in the Far East and has just gone 14/7/8 so is clearly in fine fettle. I have had £50 ew 100/1 + £10 120 on Betfair and have also added £20 ew 80/1 in the FRL market.
My second Spaniard is past winner here Jose Manuel Lara and he was also 5th in 2013. He is a talented player who is a nightmare to catch right but that is more than made up for with the odds available. He flew out and played in Macau last week and whilst he missed the cut that was largely due to a poor first round where he took 37 putts failing to read the tricky greens. A more impressive second round 66 with only 28 putts could well give him a bit of confidence. £30 ew 300/1 + £10 510 on Betfair
I know I shouldn't but I can't resist a play on Sam Saunders in the Shriners on the PGA tour as he is in great form with a 4th and 3rd in the playoffs to secure his card. He lost in a playoff in Puerto Rico earlier this year - a low scoring resort course which is often a good guide to Summerlin £20 ew 250/1
A rare foray onto the Japanese tour where Adam Bland looks overpriced to me @ 80/1. He won earlier in the year in Japan and was 6th here last year improving with every round. He bounced back to a bit of form last week when 12th in a stronger field and I was pleasantly surprised to get £30 ew at the price.
october 13th 22.35
I am sticking with Jeff Maggert again this week on the Champions tour £75 win 16/1 as I still feel his price is wrong and at least he has some course form this week. Over in Asia I have had a small bet on Niall Turner £20 ew 160/1 to maintain a good run of form on his comeback from injury and he has a decent level of course form in Macau. However I am intrigued by the price of Andres Gonzales and have had a rare foray onto the PGA tour for the Open.
Gonzales plays his best golf out West and knows the Napa Valley area very well - indeed he was joint first round leader last year. He is a regular visitor to this area and plays his best golf on poa-ana greens and thinks the tree lined course suits his game. He already has a 1st and 2nd at the Californian Soboba Springs course on the course to back this up. One other fact that interests me is that he had a pair of top five finishes last "year" on tour - one of those came in the OHL Classic - an event he had already previously led before after round one. This event is the first PGA tour event he ever played as a pro and he has fond memories which could well inspire him this week - £40 695 Betfair £25 top 5 80 Betfair + £10 ew 200/1 FRL
october 13th 14.30
I have four bets for this weeks Portugal Masters so without further ado....
Paul Dunne was all the rage for last weeks British Masters because of his record in Open Qualifying at Woburn but to be honest I had my eye on this week for him - the reason being his similarity with young English player and 2011 winner of this Tom Lewis. Four years ago Lewis won his Open qualifier, led the Open, then turned pro and won on his third pro start. Dunne - won his Open qualifier, led the Open and this is his third pro start! To back up my theory scrambling seems a key stat around here and in his limited starts on tour no-one has scrambled better than Dunne. A lot of people think I maybe mad but I am prepared to back up my hunch and the win of young pro Fitzpatrick last week can only further inspire this weeks pick £15 ew 66/1 6 places £15 ew 66/1 5 places £70 win 70 Betfair
Thomas Aiken has a great long term track record at Oceanico Victoria with five straight cuts made. I can forgive him his poor performance last week when he returned from the States having just secured a low grade PGA tour card. He also has a great record in neighbouring Spain where he gained his first European tour title. He has since secured two further tour wins in India and South Africa and I think is worth a shout this week - £40 ew 80/1
The European Team Championship took place here in 2011 and Alexander Levy won the matchplay section and we know what he has achieved here as a pro. The two that caught my eye from the strokeplay section were Espana and Otaegiu. The latter was 2nd in that category and in the rain shortened event last year was 2nd after round one with a 63 - I just think he is worth a play £30 win 220 £20 top 5 33/1 £10 ew 125/1 FRL.
Espana secured his playing rights when 2nd in the Spanish Open in May and went off the boil after but has now made his last straight six cuts. First start here as a pro but fond memories could lead to a good performance £10 win 200 Betfair £15 ew 180/1 average £10 ew 125/1 FRL
october 7th 11.25
Time is pressing on and dwith other things to do today I may not have time for a full preview so here is a list of my bets
British Masters
Paul Dunne £65 ew 130/1 average + £25 ew 100/1 FRL
David Horsey £40 ew 66/1 + £20 70 Betfair
Peter Hanson £27.50 ew 66/1 6 places
Benjamin Hebert £25 ew 80/1 6 places + £20 95 Betfair
SAS Championship
Jeff Maggert £75 win 14/1 + £20 win 14/1 Betfair
Scott Parel £20 ew 50/1
september 30th 14.13
Twelve of the fifteen winners of this weeks Alfred Dunhill Links event have been home grown and also many have shown an affinity for the event or links golf in general so thats where three of my four picks have come from.
I will start however with Thomas Pieters who has won his last two starts and I just get the feeling the bookmakers haven't cut him enough yet. He has had a week off in between each win to he shouldn't be too tired and he played well last year in the final two rounds closing with a 65/67 to climb to 18th £50 ew 45/1 6 places
Marc Warren is an excellent exponent of links golf especially in Scotland with recent finishes of 3rd, 3rd and 4th in the Scottish Open and has a best of 5th here in 2011. My one reservation is that he can struggle to get over the line so be prepared to lay if he is up there £40 ew 66/1 6 places + £10 70 Betfair
Michael Hoey won this in 2011 but I must admit he is a nightmare to catch right and I have only got him right once in Madeira a few years back. His form this year has been fairly solid but I have only backed him win only with a view to trade if up there £40 130 Betfair
Tom Lewis reminds me very much of last years winner Oliver Wilson in that the young Englishman already has a top finish in this event. His recent form has seen a slight upturn with three top twenty finishes and he maybe a bit of a surprise package this week £10 ew 150/1 + £35 win 170 Betfair
september 30th 11.31
I will get the bets on the smaller tours out of the way first starting with the EMC Challenge Cup on the Challenge Tour. Quite simply I just don't get the price of Rhys Davies this week - he has already won twice on tour this season, was 8th last time out in Kazakhstan and was 3rd here back in 2009 when he had also already won twice on tour - what's not to like. £60 ew 33/1. I have added Fredrik Andesson Hed purely on his record in Italy - he has been 1st, 3rd and 4th on the main tour in the Italian Open and was also 5th here back in 2009. His form has been fairly solid in recent months but I have skewed this small bet towards the place market - £10 win 80/1 + £25 top 5 16/1.
On the tour it is the final event of the year - the Tour Championship and with so much to play for I have struggled to finalise bets. Putting seems to be the key around Sawgrass Valley so I have gone for two players who rank in the top three on tour in the last few months. Shane Bertsch has his tour card already, won recently on tour, was 4th a month ago and his been 5th around here when it was used for the Jacksonville Open £15 ew 200/1 + £5 200 Betfair. Rob Oppenheims resume reads very similar - he also won in June but is yet to secure his PGA tour card but he was also 5th here back in 2010 £10 ew 250/1 + £5 235 Betfair
september 23rd 14.17
Jerry Smith landed us a nice place payout the other week when he put some previous PGA tour course knowledge to good use at En-Joie and the same can certainly be said for this weeks Pebble Beach event on the Champions tour. His 2nd best ever PGA tour result came here in the AT&T pro-am when 5th. So with some course history and a 3rd and 1st in recent weeks on this tour he is well worth a bet £25 ew 150/1
The hosts the third of its "playoff" events this week at the very tough Ohio University scarlet course so don't expect really low scores this week. Michael Thompson is a fine player of tough courses, played here as an amateur years ago and was 2nd the week before last to secure his PGA priveleges again £40 ew 55/1 average
Bill Lunde has won this before back in 2008 and had a few good low rounds in two visits since. He hasn't played well on the main tour this season but this is more his level and he played OK when 12th last week £10 ew 100/1 £20 top 5 20/1 £15 win 80 Betfair
Justin Hicks is my outsider of the week on this tour as he tries to make up for lost time having missed four months of the year with injury. As a two time winner on this tour it was interesting to see him play solidly last week and he has a best finish of 8th here £25 ew 125/1 + £5 130 Betfair
september 23rd 11.47
This week sees the return of the European Open and whilst it is a new course to some it has been used on the Challenge Tour for the past three years. I have gone for four players - two from the middle and two from the bottom who have some course experience.
I nearly fell off my chair when I saw the opening quotes of 80/1 for Pablo Larrazabal as I would have put him in the 40-50 bracket so a bit more research was required. He is coming off a seven week break - partly enforced by a back injury and partly due to his wedding. Looking at the pictures on his twitter feed a) he is one happy bunny and b) his back can't be that bad when picking up his wife! There is a bit of history with back problems but at the end of 2013 he had a similar enforced break and returned in January and won first time out in Abu Dhabi. There have been other good finishes as well after a break - 2012 6 weeks - was 2nd in Spain and earlier this year - 6 weeks he was 3rd in Morocco. He plays golf well in Germany with two tour wins and if he is best caught fresh he could be a cracking bet this week £50 ew 80/1 + £20 65 Betfair.
David Lipsky is on a solid run of form going 14/22/23/3 and I simply couldn't leave him out at the price. With no evidence either way that he will be suited to the course this is simply a play on the price for an in form golfer who won this time last year £30 ew 90/1
I have mentioned Marcel Schneider before as a player who improves each time he plays a course and the young German has done exactly that around here on the Challenge Tour - improving from his missed cut to be 5th just a couple of months ago. That week he was 2nd after the opening round so he is well worth backing in that category as well, £25 win 340 Betfair £5 ew 250/1 £25 top 10 20/1 £15 ew 160/1 average FRL
Last man in is Challenge Tour graduate Jason Barnes who needs to get a move on to keep his playing card. Last year he did exactly that on the lower tour - having been 2nd here in July he closed with a couple of thirds in the bigger events towards the end of the season. His form is progressive - he was in the top ten heading into the final round in the KLM and then had a seasons best finish of 14th last week in Italy with some really good stats. With the pressure on I have struggled to really back him outright but have had £40 ew 33/1 in the top English market which looks weak and a token £10 ew 250/1 + £5 Betfair 330
september 17th 10.15
A little bit later than intended but a quick look at what are now three picks for this weeks event the Small Business Connection Championship
Matt Davidson is two from two in cuts made at River Run without troubling the judge but also has a 2nd when the course was used on the Egolf tour back in 2009. Long term on this tour he has a 7% top 5 strike rate and 13% top 10 and at the odds I felt he was worth taking a small risk with £15 ew 200/1 + £20 top 10 20/1
Alex Aragon is a real long shot but he has a win on this tour in both 2012 and 2013 and was recently 3rd in Utah - was pleasantly surprised to get £20 ew 500/1 and £5 450 Betfair but 300/1 is generous enough
Brett Stegmaier is the late addition after finding some recent form. He was all set to quit the game a few weeks ago but a putting alignment session on the Monday before the Portland Open changed things. He needed to finish top thirteen to progress to the finals and duly managed 7th. He continued that form last week when 8th and with another good week could secure an unlikely PGA tour card. He also comes to a course where last year he lay in 2nd at the cut mark. £15 ew 125/1 + £40 top 10 10/1
september 16th 13.08
Well after a fabulous week last week lets see if we can get another one under our belt - so glad I ditched the PGA tour to concentrate on others! This week the European tour pitches up in Italy on a course that was last used on the Challenge Tour in 2006. The winner that week was Alvaro Salto who was regularly a decent performer at St Omer and I can certainly see some course similarities. Whilst it is a new course to nearly all a lot of Italian parkland courses play very similar so it is worth looking at past form in the country. Past winners have a good record of winning again (Otto achieved the feat last year) whilst South Africans seem quite at home on these types of courses. These angles of attack have led to me four selections at big prices.
First up is Pelle Edberg who has got his playing rights back thanks to recent finishes of 4th in Switzerland and 2nd in the Czech Republic. His last four finishes in Italy on the Challenge Tour read 2/5/5/9 so he is clearly at home here. Recent finishes at St Omer read 2/c/4/5/12 so hopefully the course will suit. Overall I think he is a cracking bet this week £40 ew 150/1 £40 win 180 Betfair £40 top 10 12/1
Bookmakers were unsure how to price up Jaco Van Zyl this week with quotes ranging from 50/1 to 125/1! Admittedly he is yet to win on the European tour but has done so at home and has some solid finishes outside of his homeland this season with a pair of 3rd place finishes in Morocco and France. He has been top twenty in his last two Italian Opens and like his compatriot Hennie Otto may well finally make the breakthrough in this event £45 win 135 average Betfair £40 top 5 20/1
The first of two past champions I have backed is Robert Rock who won in 2011 and was also 2nd in 2009. He has had a steady if unspectacular season so far and seems ripe for a top performance in an event he has such a great record in £30 ew 90/1
Last man in is big outsider Daniel Vancsik who beat Rock back in 2009. He also has a great record in the country on the Challenge Tour with best finishes of 2/2/4/5. He has caught the my eye on his last two starts with all eight rounds at par or better having finally started hitting some greens. That extra confidence could see him play well this week £25 ew 250/1 + £10 390 Betfair
september 9th 11.25
No joy last week an this week in Europe we move onto the KLM Open and we have a decent field lined up in mainland Europe but as ever I have trawled up four from the bottom of the pile!
Main pick for me this week is Fabrizio Zanotti and hopefully this year he can play more than six holes before being hit on the head by a golf ball and carted off to hospital! He won on tour for the first time last year from a decent field in the BMW International on a course where he had held the first round lead before and I can see some similarities with this week. He is three from three in cuts made here and in 2013 was 2nd after the opening round. In 2009 he was way outside the cut line after day one but rounds of 64 and 65 helped him climb eventually to 15th so he can go low round here. In 2010 he was also 2nd in this event on the other Harry Colt designed course Hilversumsche and was 2nd in 2012 at Royal Portrush yet another Harry Colt links course. His current form is fairly solid and the only thing stopping me having an even bigger bet is that he has had a bit of a break. £10 ew 150/1 £30 win 155 average Betfair £30 top 5 30/1
Gary Stal won from an impressive field in Abu Dhabi back in January but hasn't done a great deal since. On his debut here last season he shot rounds of 65 and 66 on his way to a top twenty finish so probably likes the course. He has shown that he can play well after a break and maybe the six weeks off was what he needed. £25 ew 125/1 + £10 120 Betfair
Raphael Jacquelin was a bit of an afterthought but he seems to play well on exposed linksy style courses - indeed we were on last time he won in the Spanish Open at El Saler. With a 2nd and 7th in recent events he just seems a tad too big to leave out £15 ew 80/1 + £30 90 Betfair
Outsider for the week is Spaniard Edouardo de la Riva who seems to have been around for ages but is still only 33. He turns up out of the blue now and then with some decent finishes in good events and his 8th a few weeks ago may propel him to a solid end of season finish. The bet is slightly skewed to the top ten finish market where he can boast a 14% strike rate in recent seasons £25 win 220 £15 top 5 40/1 £35 top 10 14/1
september 2nd 14.25
Weird how last week the biggest priced pick Jerry Smith was the only one to place at 250/1 - maybe there is a hint there! This week we have the Russian Open where I have five selections all at big prices as I can't help but feel all those at the top are a little on the short side considering we have no course from to go on.
Sam Hutsby was a decent opening price having now made a few cuts and been on the fringes of contention last week. His best European tour finish came in this event last year when 4th albeit on a different Nicklaus design and in September he went on to win his maiden Challenge Tour event in Kazakhstan - perhaps he likes this neck of the woods £25 ew 110/1
Everyone and his dog seems to be on Hutsby this week and the same can be said of Carlos del Moral. There isn't a lot I can add to what has already been said - his recent form bar last weeks missed cut is solid, he was 10th in this event last year and won on the Challenge Tour on that Nicklaus course back in 2010 £30 ew 80/1
My other three picks I don't think have been mentioned anywhere else and are all a bit left field! Mardan Mamat was a winner for us back in November on the Asian tour and he has gone in again on that tour in Bangladesh in May. That win was preceeded by a 3rd place finish in Mauritius in a very similar field to this weeks. The price just seems to be a little on the big side in a field where so many are non winners £25 200 + £15 top 5 27/1.
Sticking with the Asian tour players I will give Khalin Joshi a squeak as he was runner up to Mamat in Bangladesh. He won on his home tour in India earlier this year and has been playing OK on the ADT tour of late. I admit these are weak events but don't think he should be quite as big a price - not that I could get much on - £1.50 ew 1000/1 (thanks Coral!!) £10 top 10 66/1 + £9 1000 Betfair
Last man in is promising young player Jordan Smith who was a top amateur before turning pro this year. He was invited to play this event last year and the Lyoness Open making the cut in both. He had a 9th place at the beginning of the year in South Africa beating a lot of the players who are much shorter than him in the betting this week. He has mainly been playing on the Europro tour of late and secured his first pro win a month ago. If he is spurred on by fond memories of last year then he could be a surprise package. I got £10 ew 500/1 and £15 top 10 40 but then got matched on Betfair £16 95 for a top 10 and £9 210 for a top 5.
Only other bets this week are a £15 ew Ryan Palmer in the Deutsche Bank @ 66/1 to be first round leader - twice led here at Boston and also been 3rd.
On the Challenge Tour I have backed these two
Antonio Hortal - got £6 win 200/1 £14 top 5 35/1 £5 ew 150/1 £20 top 10 12/1
Marcel Schneider £11 ew 66/1 £20 win 50/1 £30 top 5 10/1
august 26th 15.38
This weeks main event for me is the Czech Masters and I am sticking with last weeks pick David Lipsky as my main selection. He played as well as anybody last weekend climbing eventually to 14th and as I said last week it was this time last year he hit form which included a 19th place finish here despite a poor final round - £50 ew 50/1 + £25 56/1 average.
I will a give a chance to young Kevin Phelan this week who seems to be slowly finding some form again which he showed earlier when he gained a second and two thirds on the main tour. He strikes me as a player who learns with a bit of course experience so he could build on last years 23rd here - £30 ew 80/1 + £10 100 Betfair
Two outsiders I have backed are Mikael Lundberg and Marco Crespi. The former won a similarly weak Lyoness Open last year and was 3rd earlier this year when we were on in the Hassan Trophy - this is definitely his sort of level. He had two good rounds and two poor rounds here last season on his way to 30th and in 2011 was 2nd in the Czech Open. Whilst his form is poor he can turn it on from nowhere £20 win 250 Betfair + £15 top 5 40/1. Crespi also won a weak event last year in Spain and there have been signs of late of an upturn in form and a repeat performance of his 4th in the Shenzhen International in April should see him go close this week £15 ew 250/1 + £10 275 Betfair.
I have had a rare foray onto the Champions tour with £10 ew 250/1 on Jerry Smith in the Dicks Sporting Goods Open. He won his first Champions tour event just six weeks ago and for a change has some course form at En Joie in the now defunct BC Open.
Its the final event on the main tour before the "playoffs" and I have two selections. I like last weeks t4th Matt Fast - last year he tied for the lead after the first round in the News Sentinel then faded - last week he was 4th in that event. The next week he tied for the lead again at this weeks event before fading - so wonder if he might do the same again this week. If he makes the cut he keeps his card and gets in the playoffs. A win would automatically get him his PGA tour card and someone kindly pointed out that he tweeted that Pumpkin Ridge is one of his favourite courses £15 win 200/1 + £25 top 5 35/1.
Last bet of the week goes to "bubble man" Kevin Tway as the top 25 get their PGA tour cards and he sits 26th. I noticed last year that when the course was used for the first time the one two three of Ortiz, Gore and Hadwin had earlier filled those same positions at El Bosque. Tway was 2nd at that course earlier this year and with a win and 13% top 5 strike rate in 47 starts on this tour the odds are a little large. I have kept the bet smaller simply because of his precarious position on the money list where there is a lot at stake £10 ew 80/1 + £15 80 Betfair.
august 19th 12.28
After last weeks poor effort as I said on Twitter I am now knocking the PGA tour on the head apart from the weeks where we have "opposite" events such as Reno or the Puerto Rico Open which have brought about the only successes in the last few years.
Anyway - onto this weeks European event - the Made in Denmark from Himmerland where we only really have one years course form plus a few snippets from the Challenge Tour years ago. When this is the case I look for course correlations from those who did well last year plus a bit of friendly advice from a Danish friend who went last year. It appears that the course has a lot of similarities with Crans Sur Sierre - the top four last year all have good records there, plus we may have a smattering of Gleneagles and Celtic Manor thrown in!
First bet was David Lipsky who was 15th last year which came after a four month break so he was bound to have been a bit rusty. That kickstarted a solid run of form which led to him winning the European Masters at Crans and in a weak field I think the layers have underestimated him £50 ew 80/1
The next bet could go very wrong but if the course similarities are right then I cannot leave out Edoardo Molinari. Like last years winner Warren he won at Gleneagles a few years back, he also has a 2nd at Crans and a pair of 4th place finishes at Celtic Manor. He has been struggling to put four rounds together but this week could be when it all clicks £40 ew 100/1 + £10 100 Betfair.
Simon Wakefield falls into the journeyman pro category but he does seem to like playing in Denmark. He was 9th here back in 1998 and filled the same position last year. He has also been 2nd and 10th on Danish soil on the Challenge tour. He has very few top five finishes on the main tour so I have skewed the bet - £10 ew 200/1 + £30 top 10 14/1
Home bred golfer Lasse Jensen was 7th here last year and whilst I doubt he can get the job done under such pressure (hence just £10 130) I think he has a good chance in the first round leader market despite being last out. In the last few months of 2014 on the Challenge Tour he was 1st,2nd,2nd and 3rd after round one. He has recently been joint leader after round one in Germany and 2nd in Crans - £15 ew 100/1
Late addition is Jose Manuel Lara - whilst I don't like the bookmaker prices the Betfair price is too big to ignore. He is still a man to fear once he finds a bit of form and has been 13th and 2nd in his last two Challenge Tour events. He missed the cut last year when in poor form but was 4th here back in the day! £15 win 190 £20 top 5 40 £25 top 10 17.5 on Betfair
august 12th 15.00
A quick look at this weeks other bets - hopefully I can build on recent success on the tour in this weeks Price Cutter Charity Championship.
I think last weeks Reno pick Rod Pampling is a bit overpriced at 50/1 this week as he played OK last week, is a winner on this tour already this season and has some solid if unspectacular course form over the years £40 ew 50/1
Tommy Gainey has been under the weather a little of late but maybe tomorrows 40th birthday will perk him up a little. Only played here twice with a missed cut last time but he opened with a fine 65 back in 2009 £10 ew 200/1 + £5 175 Betfair
Mark Davidson is yet to win on this tour but has won a couple of the bigger events on the Egolf tour. He was 3rd here on his debut in 2013 an already has a 2nd and 4th this season - £10 ew 125/1 + £5 105 Betfair
On the Challenge tour the Finnish course has been used for many years - actually being called the Gant Open. I was tempted by Dantorp who won in 2008 but his current form is woeful and the price is just too low. Last years winner was Christian Gloet and he is worth a bet - £20 win 100/1 + £30 top 5 18/1. Going back even further Anti Ahokas won in 2006 but his career has been ravaged by injury and a loss of form. However a repeat of his 8th place in Switzerland in July could see him go close £5 win 400/1 + £25 top 5 70/1
august 12th 11.59
It's the last Major of 2015 with the US PGA Championship - I usually have one good Major a year and I haven't had one yet so here's hoping!!
Keegan Bradley seems to come alive in August - in fourteen PGA starts in this month he has two wins and a 2nd,3rd an 4th all in either the PGA Championship or Bridgestone Invitational. His form this season hasn't been all that bad and whilst his 17th place last week was not exceptional he was 4th in the all round stats £11 ew 125/1 + £12.50 ew 80/1 7 places + £25 155 Betfair
There is a solid line of evidence for British Open winners going well in this with five players doing the double in the last twenty years so I simply cannot leave out Zach Johnson - especially as he was 3rd here in 2010. If you can forgive him an average finish last week in his first start back after his Open win then his price appears pretty generous and I would rather be on this double Major winner than the other Johnson! £20 ew 50/1 7 places, £30 ew 50/1 6 places, £15 win 60 Betfair
Zach is hardly a big hitter so maybe Whistling Straits is not all about power so at the price I will have a small investment on David Toms who has a 1st,4th,7th and 10th in this Major. His last two starts have yielded a bit of form so I have £5 ew 500/1 6 places + £30 1000 Betfair + £20 top 10 40/1
Brendan Steele hardly has a stellar Major record although he has played in very few but his finishing positions hide the fact he co-led with a round to go in the 2011 rendition of this. His GIR stats over the last few months are the best in the field which should hold him in good stead this week. To be honest I find it difficult seeing him winning but he could easily finish in the top ten so my bets reflect that £12 ew 250/1 7 places, £20 570 Betfair, £5 ew 100/1 top US, £10 top 10 inc ties 20/1, £5 top 5 inc ties 50/1
If you take out Rory then Marc Warren has actually finished top or joint top GB and Irish player in the last two US PGA's so with question marks over Rorys fitness it seems sensible sidng with the Scot in this market although with his putting stroke under pressure I can't see him really winning outright £40 ew top GB/Ireland 33/1 1/5 4, £20 top 10 20/1, £30 win 450 Betfair
Last but not least I have had a dabble on the man who has been tied second after round one in both 2004 and 2010 here at Whistling Straits - Ernie Els. He was 3rd after round one in his last event and was 2nd after round one of the Masters - £20 ew 150/1 FRL 150/1 6 places + £10 outright win 450 Betfair
august 11th 11.44
Below is a full list of US PGA Championship bets I have struck
Keegan Bradley £11 ew 125/1 + £12.50 ew 80/1 7 places + £25 155 Betfair
David Toms £5 ew 500/1 6 places + £30 1000 Betfair + £20 top 10 40/1
Marc Warren £40 ew top GB/Ireland 33/1 1/5 4, £20 top 10 20/1, £30 win 450 Betfair
Ernie Els £20 ew 150/1 FRL 150/1 6 places + £10 outright win 450 Betfair
Brendan Steele £12 ew 250/1 7 places, £20 570 Betfair, £5 ew 100/1 top US, £10 top 10 inc ties 20/1, £5 top 5 inc ties 50/1
Zach Johnson £20 ew 50/1 7 places, £30 ew 50/1 6 places, £15 win 60 Betfair
august 10th 09.52
Apologies for the lack of preview last week - then again maybe I shouldn't bother and just tweet the bets! JJ Henry was a nice 90/1 winner and Darron Stiles backed him up with a 2nd on the tour. I will get round to updating the P&L later today. This week it's the last Major - the US PGA Championship and I have had a few little dabbles already as outlined below - all other bets will be on Twitter with a preview to follow on here
Keegan Bradley £11 ew 125/1 + £12.50 ew 80/1 7 places + £25 155 Betfair
David Toms £5 ew 500/1 6 places + £30 1000 Betfair
july 29th 11.22
With it being school holidays and having two young ones at home I often find myself pushed for time to do these previews - so a brief rundown of this weeks Madeira bets.
I am quite happy to have a crack at Ricardo Santos as he returns to the course he won on in 2012. His bare form is not great at the moment but the 11th place at St Omer was in a similar poor quality field £10 ew 80/1 + £20 ew 70/1 + £10 70 Betfair
Marcel Schneider will probably be the next best golfer to hail from Germany and his form this year in main tour events stacks up well. He was 9th in Morocco where he led both the driving distance and accuracy stats which should help here. He was also the top German player in the field when 20th in the BMW International. If he can reproduce either of those two finishes he should go close here £10 ew 125/1 + £30 130 Betfair
Pedro Oriol has been having a consistent season on the main tour and could prove interesting on a drop down to this level. The last time he played a Challenge tour event he was 7th in Spain and he has improved on each of his two starts in Madeira £6 ew 80/1 £19 ew 66/1 + £10 70 Betfair
I will add another German in the shape of Moritz Lampert who was a three time winner on the Challenge tour last season including a win at Tecina another island course similar to what we have this week £20 ew 125/1
Lastly Andreas Harto could spring a surprise at big odds although he hasn't really "trained on" since bursting onto the scene with two wins in 2010. He was 3rd here in 2012 and did show some decent form a few months ago and again in the first two rounds last week so is worth a small bet £10 ew 225/1
july 22nd 14.06
A bit late with my preview this week with prices being late due to the delayed Open Championship - so a brief rundown.
Everyone, his wife and their dog seems to be on Anirban Lahiri and I can see why as the talented young Indian player seeks to make it three wins this year on the European tour. Admittedly both of those wins came in the Far East but if he can win anywhere in mainland Europe it could be this week. He has progressive course form around Crans and has shot some low rounds - in 2012 even though he missed the cut he was 4th after round one, in 2013 he led after the opening round and last year he shot the second lowest round on the Sunday to climb to 13th. He was on the fringes of contention all week in the Open and I foresee a big week - £35 ew 100/1 £10 ew 85/1 + £20 win 80/1 and £20 ew 66/1 in the first round leader market.
I have been keeping a close eye on Julien Quesne waiting for a suitable venue to back him. His form in mainland in Europe is interesting as he has missed three cuts at venues he has never played before but in all his other events he has had career best finishes. His record at Crans is steady with all four cuts made and he held the halfway lead in 2012 £50 ew 80/1 + £50 ew 66/1
Marco Crespi is my longshot of the week as the Italian is one of the most accurate players on tour - a part of the game he will need this week. He finished 29th last year including a third round of 62 when in really poor form and he also has a great record in Switzerland on the Challenge Tour. This maybe because he lives just over the border in Monza and feels comfortable in the mountain surroundings. I noticed that the other players he beat at Sotogrande last year also have a good record at Crans - Ramsay who was second has won this event and Aguilar who was 4th has won an alps tour event round here. He would have been a bigger bet but David John from Bettinzone has also put him up but I got £10 ew 400/1 and £1.50 ew 500/1 an as he is first off the tenth tee tomorrow I have had a bet of £10 ew 175/1 in the first round leader market.
Elsewhere in the Senior Open I will take Ian Woosnam to continue his resurgence after a win on the Senior tour at the end of last season and a Champions tour win a few weeks back. He loves Sunningdale and has a great record here including a 1st, 3rd and 6th in the European Open and has made it though Open qualifying as well £30 ew 70/1
july 15th 12.06
Apologies for the delay but here is my preview to accompany my bets!
Ryan Palmer - just added him this morning for first round leader £10 ew 125/1 + £10 130. He has a nice early tee time which "should" be favourable but anything can happen still. He is often fast out of the blocks leading twice this year and twice last year including the US PGA Championship. He should be well acclimatised having played last week in Scotland where he was bang up there for the opening two rounds.
Miguel Angel Jimenez maybe doesn't have the best of tee times and maybe getting old but he has shown no sign of letting up since turning fifty. In his last eighteen Open Championships he has been 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th after the opening days play £20 ew 150/1 6 places.
I struck the bets on David Howell over the last few weeks and I am quietly confident he will play well this week. He went off the boil a bit after his superb Spring run which included three runner up slots but over the last few weeks he has managed a couple of top tens. Whilst he doesn't have the strongest Open record he has never actually played one at St Andrews where he has a superb record in the Dunhill Links. If he can transfer that pro-am form to this weeks Open then he shouldd go close £20 ew 200/1 5 places + £10 ew 200/1 6 places + £10 Betfair 250
I may have jumped the gun a bit with Soren Kjeldsen judging by the way he has drifted on Betfair but I am still more than happy with the bet. He has certainly maintained a decent level of form since turning forty and gaining his first win in years but I won't be adding any more money on him £5 ew 250/1 8 places + £10 ew 300/1 6 places + £20 Betfair 380
Most years in the Open we tend to get one unexpected American playing well and I will have a crack at Robert Streb to be this years surprise package. He is on a strong and consistent run of form much as he was before his victory on the tour and then again before he won at windy, coastal Sea Island in October. Whether he will take to links golf is a big unknown but he is worth having onside £10 ew 350/1 6 places + £10 top 5 80/1 + £25 Betfair 550
I backed Graham McDowell when he got off to a flyer in Scotland last week but then he faded quite quickly. The bet was made in the belief that maybe he had found something but to be honest I am still unconvinced! £10 ew 125/1 7 places + £20 Betfair 220
Gary Boyd is my idea of the best long shot amongst all the "rags" this week as he has been in great form of late. Admittedly this has come on the lower Challenge Tour where he has had three good chances to win and ended up finishing 2nd, 5th and 4th and also came through qualifying - all that after a lengthy spell on the sidelines with injury. He doesn't seem to have a great links pedigree but he certainly has fond memories of St Andrews where he cashed his biggest ever cheque as a pro when 4th in 2010 in the Dunhill Links £50 win 1000 Betfair £5 ew 750/1 6 places £25 top 10 66/1 £25 top 20 18/1 £12.50 ew 300/1 FRL 6 places
july 14th 08.48
It was nice to finally get one over the line especially on the tour which has been poor for me for a while so the 140/1 winner was welcome. I have listed below the antepost Open Championship bets I have struck so far - I will probably add a few more - one big priced outsider I like in side markets and a first round leader bet.
Miguel Angel Jimenez £20 ew 150/1 FRL 6 places
Gary Boyd £50 win 1000 Betfair £5 ew 750/1 6 places £25 top 10 66/1 £25 top 20 18/1 £12.50 ew 300/1 FRL 6 places
David Howell £20 ew 200/1 5 places + £10 ew 200/1 6 places + £10 Betfair 250
Soren Kjeldsen £5 ew 250/1 8 places + £10 ew 300/1 6 places + £20 Betfair 380
Robert Streb £10 ew 350/1 6 places + £10 top 5 80/1 + £25 Betfair 550
Graham McDowell £10 ew 125/1 7 places + £20 Betfair 220
To be honest I am not convinced McDowell is a good bet!!
july 8th 12.09
Last week ended up disappointingly after Foster got into contention and traded below 10/1 but then disappeared off the face of the earth whilst Broberg just couldn't quite get enough birdies. This week we have the Scottish Open from the links at Gullane so it should be a good warm up for next weeks Open. It is always difficult to weigh up whether to take prices on golfers you fancy for next week who will inevitably be cut if playing well this week or wait for the enhanced place terms - keep an eye out on Twitter for any antepost bets!
The first player in my book on Monday was Byeong-Hun An who opened up at 80/1 with Sportingbet and I availed myself of £20 ew - it's not that I really fancy him this week but the price was simply wrong.
Matthew Fitzpatrick can't wait to play Gullane again as in 2013 he was 2nd here in local qualifying as an amateur and then won the Silver Medal at Muirfield. He showed an affinity for tough links conditions again at the Irish Open a few weeks ago when 8th. In the past three months he leads the tour in the ballstriking category and I can see him putting in a good week £25 ew 125/1 6 places, £10 win 170, £18 ew 33/1 top English 1/4 4, £10 ew 100/1 FRL
Marcel Siem seems to struggle trying to mix playing in the States and Europe but when he is settled over here he plays a lot better - the fact that he has won three of his last fifty two European tour starts is testament to that. He has a solid if unspectacular record on links but he does seem to be slowly running into form and I think is being slightly underestimated by the layers £25 ew 125/1 6 places + £10 150 Betfair
The last time we had any links golf played in testing conditions was as I stated above the Irish Open and I think it would be churlish to leave out that weeks winner Soren Kjeldsen. He had a good chance to win this event in 2012 when 5th and has won in Scotland before. Whilst I don't really like the bookmakers prices I felt the 75 on Betfair was worth a poke - £30 win
In other news on the tour we have the Boise Open where I have gone for Luke List £20 ew 125/1 and Martin Piller £10 ew 140/1 average + £10 105 average Betfair
In the John Deere as I have said on Twitter Scott Brown has the lowest scoring average at Deere Run with 67.17. John Rollins plays his first event since turning 40 - good record here - massive price on Betfair 740/110/55. JJ Henry has been 1st and 2nd for ballstriking the last 2 weeks and has a great record at Deere Run
july 1st 12.30
The Open de France has been a good hunting ground in the past and really should have given me another winner last year in the shape of Stadler when injury,weather and nerves conspired against us! I really like the look of Howell and Jaidee but at the prices I simply have to pass before the start so yet again it's further down the betting list I go.
The one player who stood out at the opening prices was Kiradech Aphibarnrat - I really don't get the big price. He is now a two time winner on the European tour - admittedly in the Far East but he has been showing some form as well on the European mainland. His 4th in Germany last week was his best so far and as he ranked 1st for putting and scrambling last week (he will need that around Le Golf National) I don't get the big price. £30 ew 85/1 average
Kristoffer Broberg is a winner waiting to happen on the main tour in my opinion and his current run of form of 13/6/27 on courses he has played poorly in the past suggest maybe this week is the time. He has played twice around here before with finishes of 25th in 2013 (his best finish that year) and 12th in 2014. He burst onto the scene in 2012 and I think it has taken him time to adjust to life on the main tour but the first win will probably be one of many £25 ew 80/1 + £35 100 Betfair
There is something about Le Golf National Matthew Nixon likes but probably only he knows! I guess it inspires good memories as in 2011 it was the only cut he made in fifteen starts when he was 26th (6th after round one and 4th at the cut). He returned in 2013 and was 3rd after Thursdays opening round and then last year finsihed 12th - his second best start of the year. Up until last weeks missed cut he was in a steady run of form and in my opinion he is worth chancing in a few markets. £5 win 770 average, £10 top 5 incl ties 50/1, £15 top 10 20/1 incl ties and £15 ew 200/1 FRL 6 places with Betbright
At the risk of sounding rude English journeymen pro's have a good record in this with wins at big prices for Mark Roe and Paul Broadhurst in the 90s plus Malcolm MacKenzie, Philip Golding, John Bickerton and Graeme Storm have all been victorious so I will take a chance with Mark Foster who has a good record here. He has been 2nd and 6th before and can shoot some low rounds especially early on so £10 ew 150/1 FRL again with 6 places and £20 365 average to possibly trade.
Last man in again in the FRL market is Felipe Aguilar who often gets off to fast starts (3rd and 4th here the last two years) - he has been joint leader three times in the past two years on the European tour £10 ew 150/1 6 places
After coming so close last week with Robert Coles - 150/1 losing in a playoff my token £5 ew (just about all I am allowed) goes on Wil Besseling in the Aegean Airlines Open at 275/1
A cursory glance at the Greenbrier Classic prices I would suggest Carl Petterson is big at 110 on Betfair after last weeks return to form and recent Byron Neslon runner-up Scott Pinckney @ 210 is big - debutants have a great record here and the Utah native will not be inconvenienced by the altitude.
june 24th 12.06
Time for a brief preview of my two tips for this weeks BMW International where I am safe in saying scoring will be a tad lower than Chambers Bay!
Well I am determined not to get it wrong with the latest player to turn 40 on the European Tour after tipping up Kjeldsen who went on to win the following week so first tip is David Howell who blew out the candles on Tuesday. I admit his form has turned for the worse with three straight missed cuts but before that he had three runner up slots and a fourth in just seven starts. If he was to revitalise his game then it will be at a venue where he has great memories and he has that in spades around Munchen Nord-Eichenried. He won here in 2005 after turning 30 and has also been 4th and 5th. His round one scoring average is none too shabby as well with 1st,2nd,4th and 5th. I have backed him in the first round leader market £15 ew 70/1 and also had £20 ew 80/1 plus £40 80 on Betfair - if he gets in contention I may well need that to trade to secure a profit!
John Parry played all four days at Chambers Bay which will probably count against him and for the first three days played really well. That was his second Major - the first being the US Open in 2013 where he again made the weekend and then travelled back to Europe to finish 10th here. His form at this venue is progressive 36/18/10 and I have always felt he is better on parkland courses. His form this year is solid with a 5th in Mauritius, 6th Africa Open and 11th Thailand Classic. £30 ew 110/1, £20 top 10 including ties 10/1 + £10 130 Betfair.
PS Nick Taylor is too big in the Travelers Championship lol
june 20th 11.38
Just a little announcement about what will be happening on the blog here and regards tipping over the next six months no matter what happens with Snedeker or Henry over the weekend! Basically I have had a huge wake up call in the health department and need to cut back on certain things in life - one of them being betting. I will not be stopping betting altogether but after close analysis I will be knocking the PGA tour on the head (bar Majors and the Puerto Rico Open!) and concentrating on the European tour and the smaller satelite tours. If you see me even mention the PGA tour please send a note to my Doctor!!
june 16th 15.12
This weeks event in Europe is on the Challenge Tour and it is nice to see so many books up on what was usually a co-sanctioned event. One thing about the St Omer course is that it will play tough (maybe not as tough as the US Open!) and the winning score is generally in single digits. One thing I have noticed about recent winners is that course experience is vital as it needs a bit of learning and the last six winners have all shown a gradual improvement
Pinto mc/49
Thornton mc/36/11
Fichardt mc
Zions mc/68/23
Wiegele mc/mc/43
Nilsson 15/2
With the exception of Fichardt all had played the course at least twice, and bar Nilsson all had missed the cut on their first attempt. For some reason as well current form is not key - maybe because it is such a unique test, and being a winner before on tour isn't necessarily a help. I have come up with three players to small stakes.
Scott Henry has form here of mc/15/3 so certainly fits the bill. His current form is certainly average but he has just made two cuts on the main tour and arrives therefore in much the same form as when 3rd last year. He does have a Challenge tour victory to his name from 2013 and maybe number two will come in what will be his 100th tour event £5 ew 100/1 + £20 ew 80/1
Matte Delpodio has two starts here finishing mc/38 and comes here in what one could call average form making his last four cuts at this lower level. Whilst he has yet to win at this level he as won a few events on the Alps Tour and most of those have come in France £25 ew 125/1
Andrea Rota will never be a world beater but he does have three top five finishes on this tour including here last year when 3rd having missed the cut on his debut. I am not sure where Coral got their price of 1000/1 from but sadly they only let me have £2.50 ew on!
june 16th 12.11
Those of you who have been reading my ramblings for long enough will remember the big payday I had in this event in 2012 with Michael Thompson who was backed because of his form in the US Amateur at Olympic. With that in mind having looked closely at the 2010 US Amateur here at Chambers Bay I think Morgan Hoffman may well replicate what Thompson did. With the exception of Byeong-Hun An he has the most "tournament" rounds here having finished 5th in the strokeplay section shooting 73-71 and then only losing on the 18th hole in the quarter finals to eventual winner Uilhein. Admittedly the course will be somewhat different this week but he can certainly feed off some very positive memories. He has yet to win on tour but has a very good top five/ten strike rate overall and despite his stats not being that great a few stood out to me. This year he is 2nd for scrambling from 20-30 yards, 2nd for putting average and 2nd for three putt bogey avoidance - all of which will be crucial this week. He often gets off to fast starts - leading a couple of times and again with numerous top five placings after round one. I have therefore backed him in several markets £25 ew 300/1 6 places, £40 top 10 25/1, £20 ew 150/1 FRL £75 win 440 Betfair
My second big outsider is simply someone who doesn't deserve to be a 1000/1 shot considering his current form. Wen Chong Liang won in Japan on his last start. Admittedly the Japan Golf Tour Championship is not the strongest in the world but he won by a very comfortable five stroke margin. He is a much travelled golfer and whilst he can't boast a huge amount of form in the States he was 8th at Whistling Straits in 2010 in the US PGA Championship. That course as mentioned has similarities to this week and he shot a course record 64 in the third round - has to be worth a few quid of anyones money! £5 ew 1000/1 6 places, £10 top 10 80/1 (50/1 acceptable) £25 win 1000 Betfair
june 16th 11.00
Jimmy Walker was my first pick a few weeks back and I remain confident that he is still under-estimated by the bookmakers - it's almost as if they still think he is a journeyman pro but that is far from the case. He is one of the few players who once they finally found the ability to win has repeated. He now has five wins in the last couple of years to add to the three he achieved on the tour. Two of those victories came this year and he has backed that up with a pair of runner-up slots. Those five victories have come in just forty three events which is pretty impressive! With wins at Pebble Beach and back to back wins at the Sony he is clearly at home on coastal exposed tracks and his long term record on the West Coast is excellent. Last year he showed how far he has progressed with top ten finishes in three of the four Majors which means he can cope with the pressures of the big events. His form in the AT&T pro am also covers my angle of being able to play different courses in consecutive days. My bet is £30 ew 50/1 + £90 50 on Betfair - please note that any Betfair bets listed will hopefully be used to trade.
Brandt Snedeker is the second of my players from nearer the top op the pile and again is a multiple PGA tour winner with seven to his name. He has won twice around Pebble Beach and also has a very good West Coast record. His results in Majors is solid with three top tens in US Opens, a 3rd and 6th in the US Masters and a 3rd in the Open at Lytham. He is in great form finishing 2nd and 6th in his last two starts and already has a win this year. The tipping point for me came in his scrambling stats - he is one of the best on tour and he will need that this week - £60 ew 66/1
I did place £40 on Graeme McDowell at 120 last week and to be honest I am regretting it - but we all make mistakes! Marc Leishman however I am happy to have a small stake on - £12.50 ew 125/1 6 places + £20 140 Betfair. He is a good player in coastal breezy conditions and on the West Coast and is in pretty good form. He was 4th at the Masters in 2013 and 5th in the Open last year so is building a Major pedigree but I would only make him a small bet - back with my two rags in a while...
june 16th 09.36
This week we have the eagerly anticipated US Open from the much talked about Chambers Bay golf course. One thing you can guarantee this week is that there will be a lot of complaints of unfair bounces, poor greens etc etc but someone has to win it and my job is to solve that conundrum. The only course form we have is the 2010 US Amateur so I have looked closely at that. The course is very linksy in nature and has Fescue greens normally associated with the links courses in Scotland and Ireland. The way the course has been designed means it will play very differently every day so you really want a player who can adjust and has experience and patience. It will be difficult finding the one player it will really suit but I have had a crack and excuse the fact that this post will be long and rambling in nature!
A lot of people are saying it is quite simply a bombers paradise but I am not convinced! Admittedly the shortest hitters will be slightly disadvantaged on such a long course but as long as you can drive it a certain distance off the tee you should be fine. To my mind scrambling will be one of the key stats with so many run off areas plus maybe decent lag putting on large greens - so look at the three putt bogey avoidance stat.
Trying to find similar courses is a little tricky but as Uihlein won the US Amateur it is worth noting he was 2nd in the Dunhill Links shooting a 60 at Kingsbarns and also won on exposed Madeira. One of the closest courses they have played in recent memory on US soil would probably be Whistling Straits in the 2010 US PGA Championship - so I have looked at that. People have said that it maybe like Pebble Beach but the greens are so much bigger however players who have a good record in the AT&T pro-am may fare well purely because they can obviously come out and play a different golf course well a few days in a row. That is what we will get this week with two holes alternating between par fours and fives and with so many options available to the USGA.
june 10th 16.43
The St Jude Classic again is played on the par 70 Southwind course so it is often wise to side with players who perform well at venues such as El Camaleon, Harbour Town, Sea Island or even Waialae - three picks with a short rundown on each.
Matt Every just seemed too big to me at 100/1 as he was 3rd here last season - that came after a run of poor form after securing his maiden PGA title at Bay Hill. He repeated that feat this year and since then has arguably better form than he did last year. He seems to save his best for these sort of courses with numerous top tens at all the venues mentioned above £30 ew 100/1 + £30 100 Betfair
Troy Merritt finished 2nd here last year but unlike Every he is still waiting for his first tour win. He nearly secured a title when 3rd at Harbour Town this year and just looked a touch too big at 150/1 £20 ew
Finally Blayne Barber who became a father a couple weeks ago and celebrated by qualifying for the US Open on Monday in his first event back. In just twenty tour starts he already has three top tens - one of them at the aforementioned El Camaleon. He was incredibly consistent on the tour last year including a 2nd in Tennessee and this is the sort of event I can see him playing well in - especially as he is on such a high - £10 ew 200/1 £10 top 5 40/1 £20 top 10 14/1 £40 win Betfair 210 to trade
june 10th 16.03
Before embarking on the St Jude preview just a few notes about this weeks two other bets, firstly the KPMG Womens LPGA Championship. I will have a small play on Jacqui Concolino who last week had her best ever finish on tour when 4th in Canada beating a few of the top players into the bargain. Normally I would say big deal this week is a Major but we have a new venue for the ladies in the Westchester course the PGA tour used to play and as she hails from just down the road on Long Island she should feel more comfortable than some who don't know the area £10 ew 300/1
Over on the tour they tee up for the second year running at the old fashioned Lakewood course for the Rust-Oleum Championship. As it was used for the first time last year I like to look for players who improved as the week went on and Scott Harrington certainly caught the eye. Last year he opened with a disasterous 75 but then shot 66 66 69 to climb to 14th, so having been eleven shots behind the leader after just one round he ended up just six back by the end of Sunday. He won a couple of events on the Egolf tour a few months back and since then has made all four cuts on this tour. If he can get off to a better start this week then he could find himself in contention £20 ew 150/1

june 10th 11.43
It may have come as a bit of a surprise to some that I have put up Richie Ramsay for the Lyoness Open but I think the top of the market is wrong. Wiesberger is a justifiable favourite as he has excellent course form and was 2nd last time out but we have to go back to May 2013 and sixty starts before we find his last win - 11/2 seems way too short in my opinion. Chris Wood is second in at 12/1 but he is hardly a prolific winner and does seem to struggle to get the job done. Then we have the likes of non winners Kieffer, Wattel and Hatton at the 20/25 mark - yes they will all probably win at some point but their prices are hardly value. Then we have Cabrera-Bello at 20/1 and we have to go back nearly one hundred starts for his last win plus he missed the cut badly here on his only start in 2011.
That left me to ponder Ramsay and the only reason he is such a big price in this poor quality field is that he has never played the Diamond course before, but I have found a formline which maybe of importance. The two players with arguably the best course form are Luiten and Wiesberger and both those players also won at Toulouse Seilh another Jeremy Pern design which looks very similar to this weeks venue. Two other players have won there and played here - John Parry led at the cut here before and even Sam Little has made all three cuts. I guess you will have realised by now that Ramsay also won on that Pern design.
As for his current form - well since he won in Morocco Ramsay has been in excellent form (bar a blip at Wentworth) and I cannot have him at three times the price of the local hero or bigger than Wood - £125 win 16/1
I have had a couple of small plays on two past winners as well - Lundberg has proved before he can win at the same venue twice so is worth £15 @ 140 on Betfair. Jose Manuel Lara occasionally pops up on a going week - he was 5th in Hong Kong in 2013 on a course he had won before and was 7th in the Spanish Open a few weeks ago - £25 win 350 and £30 top 10 15/1

june 3rd 18.35
I always find it fun doing research when a new course is used on tour and thats exactly what we have with this weeks Greater Dallas Open. The Lakes at Castle Hills has been used for the past three Texas Opens, the first stage of the Q School and Monday qualifying for the Byron Nelson. Admittedly these are all low key events but I think some prior knowledge has to be an advantage. Nathan Tyler won the Texas Open in 2012 and at 250/1 would be worth a few quid each way although he is in poor form.
Zack Fischer has a whole host of course form here and is maybe worth chancing
6th Texas Open 2012
4th Texas Open 2013
Monday Qualified Byron Nelson 2013
9th Web,com Q School 2013
Whilst he was born in Utah he lives in Texas close to Dallas and most of his best junior form came in the area whilst he also qualified for the US Open in 2013 just down the road finishing one shot behind Jordan Spieth. Reading his Twitter page he admits he has had a few problems on the course but felt his closing 68 on Sunday was the best he had played for a while £15 ew 200/1
Henrik Norlander played the Q School here in 2012 finishing tied 2nd. He already has a 2nd and 5th on tour this year and seems to thrive in the windy conditions he will encounter this week £25 ew 100/1 + £5 ew 90/1

june 3rd 12.36
In the Memorial I have added £10 ew FRL Will Mackenzie 125/1 - he has some good form here and also loves Jack Nicklaus courses. He has won at Annandale and at Montreux has been 1/3/3/5 after round one in seven attempts.
The European tour pitches up in Malmo for the Nordea Masters and I have had a go at two players. The course was used last year for the first time but was also used on the Challenge Tour in 2011 and whilst there does seem to be a strong link to the Emirates course there could be an odd link to Santo da Serra. Derksen very nearly won here last year and in 2011 Santos beat Brooks and all three have won in Madeira. That leads me to Bradley Dredge who was in contention through three rounds last year. He had his best result of 2015 when 10th in the Irish Open last week and when in form last summer put in back to back runner-up finishes. He was joint leader in Denmark last year and again in China a few weeks back so I have bet him as follows £20 ew 150/1 + £12.50 ew 100/1 FRL
Quite a few people think I am mad backing Jens Dantorp just because he is a course member here but I still think he is worth a crack. Last year he played in the marquee group in the first two rounds and outplayed Stenson in round one to be joint leader. Admittedly he then fell away over the next three rounds but this year he comes here in much better form. An 8th in Turkey on the Challenge Tour was followed by an excellent final three rounds in Denmark and then he just failed to win in Austria last time out. This is a big step up but I feel I have to give him a chance £18 win 255 average £40 ew 125/1 £15 ew 90/1 FRL
june 2nd 14.34
Just a short little write up on this weeks Memorial event as I have only backed one player - someone who I have backed @ Muirfield Village a few times in the past. Scott Stallings says this is his favourite event of the year outside the Majors and said he fell in love with the course the first time he saw it as it simply suited his game down to the ground. Maybe there is something about Nicklaus designs he likes as he has already won at Annandale. He is four from four in cuts made (unusual for such an in and out performer) and in the first three starts was in contention at some point over the four days - even leading after day one once. There does seem to be a pattern to his performances over the past few years in that he has a good event early on in the year and then goes totally off the boil before finding a bit of form around this time of year. He really is a frustrating character to bet on at times but he is a three time tour winner and the odds make up for the variation in form - just hope we can catch him on a going week and why not at his favourite venue?! £15 win 350 £10 top 5 50 £5 FRL 160 £10 ew 125/1 FRL
may 27th 14.43
To quote from one of my favourite Stevie Ray Vaughan blues tracks - "It's floodin' down in Texas" - and this weeks Byron Nelson could turn into a soggy mess - I have just settled for some small bets on outsiders.
Rod Pampling whilst Australian will feel right at home here as he lives just a few miles away in Flower Mound. He seems to save some of his best form for Texas and has three times been in the top ten here at Las Colinas. His form on the main tour has been poor but a win last time out on the tour should give him some confidence £15 ew 200/1 6 places
Austin Cook is a player of promise and in his two tour starts to date has performed surprisingly well. He Monday qualified this week and I couldn't resist £20 on him at 510 on Betfair.
Like Pampling DA Points has some excellent finishes around here including a 3rd and 7th so can play the layout well. He is also a bit out of form but can turn it on from anywhere as he did with his win in Texas in 2013 which was preceeded by a whole host of missed cuts £25 win 340 + £10 top 5 50/1
Lastly I will come to a player who has no course form at all but was a highly promising 5th last week at the very similar Colonial venue. What I have noticed over the years is that a top ten finish coupled with a first in the all round stats one week can often lead to a win the following week (Robert Streb being a fine recent example) and Adam Hadwin fits the bill nicely. He won twice last year on the tour and after a poor run of form last weeks finish hasn't gone un-noticed but he still seems a fair price £30 win 240 + £25 top 5 33/1
may 26th 15.43
This week on the European tour we have the Irish Open from one of the best golf courses in the world - Royal County Down and with the weather forecast being wind and rain I think we are in for a real cracker. With outsiders holding sway in recent events and my outside picks faring much better than my short priced ones I have concentrated on those lower down the betting order.
Graeme Storm was always going to be my number one pick this week initially due to the fact that he returns to a course he has fond memories of as he won the Amateur Championship around Royal County Down back in 1999. He does seem to reserve his best for certain courses which loosely can be described as linksy, seaside venues or those that need to be carefully plotted around. His form up until a few weeks ago was pretty dire but something definitely clicked with a final round 68 in Spain and last week he produced his best ever finish at Wentworth including a 64 in round two. Whilst researching as to why the upturn in form has arrived I read that he teamed up with a new coach in China at the end of April and it seems he is now reaping the rewards. He often gets off to fast starts so I have covered that angle as well £30 ew 300/1 + £55 400 Betfair + £10 ew 125/1 FRL
Young Kevin Phelan would love to win his home Open and does have some course experience as an amateur and says he loves the place. With a second and two thirds in his last ten events he does seem to be overpriced this week £20 ew 200/1 + £5 300 Betfair.
I will take a small risk on Magnus A Carlsson this week who like Storm had his best ever finish at Wentworth last week. That finished came on the back of a solid bank of form including an 8th in China. The Irish Open (albeit on a very different course) last year provided his best finish of the season when 6th and his one pro win on the Challenge Tour came in Ireland so there maybe something about the place he likes. The one problem is he only ever tends to be on the fringes of contention and seems to be a bit of a journeyman pro who earns his money from top ten finishes - in fact he has a 10% strike rate in that department - hence the staking plan £15 win 440 average + £25 16/1 top ten
I also spotted a big price on in form Gregory Havret and felt he was worth a small risk at the price £10 win 240. I could well add to these plays in running with the weather set to look very testing!
may 20th 10.29
The Crowne Plaza Invitational is this weeks PGA tour event and it is always nice to see an old classical thinking mans course on the agenda rather than a rip it find it chip it putt it course! Colonial is short and rewards the steady accurate golfer with most winners being in the older age bracket. Having said that my first pick is someone who is very much on the young side but has more experience around Colonial than any other golfer on show this week. John Peterson has played an estimated four to five hundred rounds here as a member - his grandfather first became a member in 1948 and his parents continued that association so that a young Peterson could hone his game. He has played here only once as a pro back in 2013 where an opening 64 left him tied 3rd at the end of the first round. He has often got off to flying starts - he has already been 2nd at Bay Hill and the Humana this season. His current form is a steady stream of made cuts and he caught my eye last week with all four rounds under par on a course he has always struggled on. His accuracy tee to green has been solid which will stand him in good stead this week £30 ew 80/1 + £25 ew 66/1 first round leader.
My only other pick this week is a player who seems to thrive in Texas - Marc Leishman says that the state reminds him of playing conditions back home in Australia. Admittedly his best results have been at the Byron Nelson where he has a pair of third place finishes but his price will be cut accordingly. On closer inspection his form here isn't that bad with all four cuts made and last year he was one shot off the lead heading into Sunday before fading. It is a well documented fact that his wife nearly lost her life just a month ago and Leishman says that has given him a different perspective on his golf. Since then he was rusty in his first round in Louisiana but then nearly shot a course record in round two. He played well in the matchplay and was solid at Sawgrass. Back in a State he loves playing in and with that extra inspiration he may well play better than most expect this week £30 ew 80/1
may 19th 15.36
I often take time off around half term for holidays so some events around this period are not studied in great detail and whilst I really enjoy the BMW PGA Championship I don't normally bet in it. Lets hope looking at some events fresh will spell an end to what to be honest has been a bit of a poor run of form.
When looking at the first sets of prices on Monday morning one player leapt out at the early Betfair prices after Bet365 opened 45/1 Richie Ramsay which I thought was about right the 100/110 seemed like a mistake on the exchange. Whilst his form around Wentworth is nothing spectacular (a best of 9th in 2013) his stats over the past three months are incredibly impressive on the European tour
All round ranking 1st
Total Driving 10th
Total Accuracy 1st
Ball Striking 6th
Total Putting 9th
Driving Accuracy 5th
GIR 2nd
Scrambling 15th
Sand Saves 1st
Putting Average 4th
Birdie Average 1st
Scoring Average 1st
I think I am safe in saying every aspect of his game seems to be firing after a poor start to the year! £50 win 105 average + £25 14/1 top 5 finish.
The home grown contingent have a great record in this event and I think these days they are even more inpsired - especially the English players as it's the only event held on English soil which is a great shame. Eddie Pepperell is my idea of a good value selection from the home grown team as out of those players who have eight rounds or more under their belt he lies second with a scoring average of 70.38, Donald leads on 70.37 whilst there is then a jump to Rose on 70.96. That scoring average has been attained by an impressive 6th place on his debut two years ago and he was then 21st last year. He doesn't strike me as the best global golf traveller with most of his best form coming closer to home and his final round 68 in Spain last week could mean he is ready to hit form again now we are firmly back on European soil £20 ew 125/1 + £20 170 Betfair
Left field pick for me this week is Soren Kjeldsen who may find a second lease of golfing life now that he has crossed the 40th birthday threshold which he did on Sunday. He celebrated with a good final round in Spain to climb to 9th - his best finish in the past nine months. He has had some decent finishes here in sixteen attempts with a best of 3rd, 7th and 10th and in past interviews says he likes the way the course plays. Whilst he is Danish he gets to sleep in his own bed this week as he lives just down the road in Ascot. There just seem to be lots of little pointers to him having a good week - £10 ew 225/1 6 places, £30 top 10 20/1 + a huge £5 500 Betfair
may 13th 11.15
I must admit I found it far easier to find picks for the Open de Espana than this weeks PGA tour event the Wells Fargo Championship but have ended up with three selections.
Brain Harman caught my eye last week with four solid under par rounds at Sawgrass where previously he had a poor record - in fact in eight previous rounds he had only broken par once. That 8th place finish came after a poor run of form so maybe something has just clicked in his game. His win at Deere Run last year came on a course where he had a good chance of winning a few years before and the same can be said of Quail Hollow. Back in 2013 he finished 10th here but he entered the back nine bang in contention before three consecutive bogeys derailed him - hopefully we will see a repeat of Deere Run £20 ew 110/1 + £20 145 average Betfair
George McNeill has played Quail Hollow eight times and in half of those he has been in contention at some point. In 2008 he was 3rd at the cut, 2009 3rd at the cut and 2nd heading into the final round, 2012 8th at the cut and 2013 2nd at the cut and 3rd heading into Sunday. If ever there was a player to back and lay then it could well be McNeill here this week. He is in solid form having made nine of his last ten cuts and just needs to get off to a slightly better start to finish higher. £20 ew 100/1 + £40 190 average Betfair
People remember Fowlers' win here in 2012 where he beat McIlroy in a playoff but they forget there was a third man who went to extra holes that day - D.A Points and he very nearly won it in regulation play. He hasn't been in the best of form of late but then he wasn't either in 2013 when he won in Houston and in New Orleans last time he improved with every round to finish 12th. If that is indicative of a return to form then his price on Betfair was simply too big £50 410 average Betfair
may 12th 14.03
At last the European tour arrives on mainland Europe and stays for a Summer session which should in theory make my life easier with less chopping and changing with weather and greens etc. We kick off with the Open de Espana which moves back to the Greg Norman designed El Prat course last used in 2011 when Thomas Aiken prevailed. I have a feeling there may well be a link with Jaypee Greens in India which I think resembles this weeks venue possibly because it was also designed by Norman and Thomas Aiken certainly adds fuel to the theory as he has won at both courses.
I think Australian Scott Hend is a decent price this week considering his level of current form and the fact he has been 2nd and 6th at Jaypee Greens added to my curiosity. Digging back a little further I also noted his best PGA tour finish ever back in 2004 was at Sugarloaf when 3rd and that was another Greg Norman design. He is a multiple winner in the Far East and won the co-sanctioned Hong Kong Open in October and whilst he is a big hitter he does seem to play shorter trickier courses like Fanling well. He already has a 2nd and 5th in co-sanctioned events this year and I think he is being underestimated this week £50 ew 66/1 + £10 65 Betfair
I confess that David Horsey is a frustrating golfer for me and I do struggle to ever back him on a going week but there are plenty of positives this week. First of all he was 5th here back in 2011 and I have always thought he was a horses for courses type of player (excuse the pun!!). He has also been 8th and 4th in the Open de Espana on other courses so clearly likes the event/area. He is a three time winner on tour and has just celebrated his 30th birthday so maybe that will spur him on to further success. He says on Twitter his game is in good nick but the putter needs warming up which it did back in 2011 so I have to back him at the price this week £40 ew 90/1 + £10 90 Betfair
I will give Matteo Manassero another chance this week after he threatened to contend when we were on in China last time only to fade over the weekend. In that event he was 1st for Driving Accuracy and 2nd for Greens in Regulation so the long game is definitely back. He has a great record in Spain including his debut European tour win back in 2010 and was 29th here back in 2011 and his pre-event interview caught my eye
"I am playing well and I like the course," said Manassero. "I think it suits my game. Some of the holes run between pine trees and you need to place the ball.That's good for me, as I like to play target golf. There are also some more open power holes. The par fives are reachable but very technical. The greens are the real challenge on this course, they will make the difference. You can play a great shot into these greens and struggle to make two putts."
Maybe his fairly average finish can be blamed on the fact he had just won in Malaysia but whatever the case in his current form and the fact he reckons the course suits he has to be in the staking plan £50 ew 80/1
may 6th 15.03
Apologies for the delay on the Players Championship preview - Bank Holidays always throw me out a bit!
The key thing I always look for with Sawgrass is a large bank of course form with at least a top twenty finish somewhere along the line. It is a well documented fact that winners here take at least four or five goes before finally prevailing and that is where I have concentrated.
Jimmy Walker ticks all the right boxes for me this week and I really don't see why he is such a big price having already won twice this year. He now has five wins on tour and they have all come on courses where he had previously had a high finish and often on courses with small greens. Walkers' best finish was 6th here last year and he leads the scoring average of those with at least five outings at Sawgrass with 70.89. The key to his success around here has been his putting and he has been 1st, 2nd and 4th in Putts per Round averaging just 27.55. If the flat stick works this week as it has in the past then he will be in contention £75 ew 33/1 6 places + £100 40/1 Betfair
Brandt Snedeker is a pick purely on price this week especially as he has already won this year making seven in total on tour. Apart from a blip at Augusta he has been hugely consistent this year. He has the requisite number of starts around Sawgrass with seven and has a best finish of 8th two years ago. £25 ew 125/1 + £25 170 Betfair
David Hearn is my left field pick this week and whilst he lacks a huge amount of experience here he has been very progressive going 68/26/6. His form can be a bit hit and miss but he was in good form last time out finishing 6th in New Orleans. He does have a habit of finishing 6th so it is nice to get the six place each way option and he does have a 10% top ten strike rate on the PGA tour £20 ew 200/1 6 places + £30 top 10 16/1
may 5th 16.41
This week we have a tri-sanctioned event with the European, Asian and South African tour turning up on the island of Mauritius on a new course - frankly it looks like a minefield. Whilst I may take an interest in running the only pre-tournament bet I have had is on young Englishman Max Orrin who gets into the event as an ambassador of the sponsors. The only reason he is here is because he won the Afrasia Masters on the island at the tail end of last year so at least he will be pleased to be back on Mauritius. He won in Oman on the Challenge tour last year and is a promising young talent and the course he won on has certain similarities to this weeks venue - worth a small bet - I got £25 ew at an average of 135/1
april 28th 18.27
I have no interest from a betting persepctive in this weeks WGC Matchplay however I do have a big interest in this weeks United Leasing Championship where I make Peter Malnati a 14/1 favourite for a whole host of reasons. First of all he is the money list leader and has his PGA tour card already wrapped up - his next goal is battlefield promotion via three wins. In his twenty nine starts he now has two wins and before his win in Brasil he has shown great form around the area he knows best.
He was born in Indiana where we play this week - went to college in nearby Missouri where he won the Missouri Open as an amateur. He actually lives in Tennessee where he won the State Amateur on the Honors Course beating Tiger Woods 72 hole record by two strokes. He then secured his maiden win in Tennessee when winning at Fox Den in 2013 - interestingly he had played at Fox Den three years previously in his maiden tour event finishing 16th. Back in 2013 a few weeks previous to his win he played here at Victoria National securing his first top ten on tour - bearing in mind this included a second round 75 where he was derailed by a triple and double bogey! - he can clearly play the course as he was third in the all round stats that week. I read something on his blog from 2013 where he likened this weeks course to the Honors course where he won the Tennessee Amateur -
"I am in Newburgh, Indiana, for this week's Tour event. The tournament is at a course called Victoria National Golf Club, and it is absolutely astounding. In fact, the course reminds me very much of The Honors Course in Ooltewah, Tennessee--a venue on which I have some fond memories! This week's course features a nice blend of long and short holes, and I think the premium it places on accuracy really plays to my strengths. "
There is also a tenous link to another player who was 8th here last year Henrik Norlander who was 5th in the NCAA finals at the Honors course in 2010 and I would fancy him if he was bigger than 40/1.
Malnati is clearly at home and plays most of his best golf in the Mid West as he also won the Nebraska Open twice.
We then come down to his current form and reading his blog he clearly has a high opinion of his game (a good thing) and knew he was in good enough form to win in Brasil six weeks ago. His confidence reminds me a bit of Patrick Reed and funnily enough Malnati has his wife caddie for him. He has thrown in some poor rounds of late but these are generally in windy conditions which he doesn't seem to like - this week looks pretty calm so that should allay any fears there. I will forgive him his missed cut in Chile after his win but he then improved in every round in Louisiana including the second lowest round of the field on Sunday. He led at the cut in Mexico but faded at the weekend in the blustery conditions yet still finished 8th. He still managed to find time to congratulate his good friend Tennessee player Wes Roach - so that should encourage further inspiration.
So we have a confident player who knows how to win on a course where has fond memories in an area where he plays his best golf who is in great form - what more can we want? Well we could do with a decent price and whilst it is not as high as I hoped I still make him a lot lower than the books are. After a few early small bets with Unibet who opened 40/1 for a change I had to get in my car and visit a few bookmakers and independents to get on what I wanted - hoepfully it was worth the petrol £125 ew average 35/1
33/1 still available Coral and Spreadex

april 23rd 10.21
It is not often I put a more "personal" post up on the blog but hell it's my blog so I can do what I like! I have just finished reading "Open Links" by Dominic Holland and if you like your golf then this really is a must read for two reasons. First of all it really is a good read - once I finally got round to reading it I couldn't put it down. It is warm, humerous and gives a great insight into the life of a fictitious struggling golf pro who has one day of glory. Secondly all proceeds go to the Anthony Nolan Trust which raises funds to help save the lives of people with blood cancer. Having been close to this horrible disease with my Mum who has thankfully been in remission for many years then hopefully I can give a little something back by asking you to buy it and read it. You can purchase this book simply by following this link

april 22nd 15.23
A bit short of time this week although to be honest I have struggled finding players to back this week in New Orleans with the Zurich Classic. It would appear that it has rained an awful lot in the area in recent weeks so the course should play soft and long, scores will be low with target golf and there could well be further interruptions with thunderstorms. That description is in part what led me to back John Merrick this week as those were the conditions in 2008 when he led going into the final round only to tire. He showed a liking for the course again the following year when 4th at the cut before fading but since then his course form has been average. He has struggled since his win at Riviera in 2013 but maybe something clicked when he played there a few months ago - he continued his awful start to the season but maybe it has now dawned on him his two year exemption is up. Since then he has made three of five cuts and was even second at the halfway stage last week - and it is worth noting he was third at the cut the week before he won. I think it is a bit of a gut feeling but I think a big week is due with some renewed confidence on a course he has played well before at £40 ew 175/1 + £25 win 200 + £10 ew 125/1 FRL
I have had one other bet on Meen Whee Kim who could be inspired by the fact that fellow Korean Noh won here last. Over the past few months he has made all his cuts and hit an awful lot of birdies (6th on tour last three months) which is what will be required this week. He is a huge young talent and when he played the tour event here a few weeks ago in Louisiana only an awful second round stopped him being in the top five £20 win Betfair 655 average £20 top 10 25/1
Just a quick word about Nicholas Fung in the Indonesia Masters - his best finish on tour was in the Indonesian Open when second, he led here after the first round last year and two weeks ago won on the Asian Development tour by a massive eleven strokes - worth a bet on that account £20 ew 125/1 + £20 165 Betfair.
april 21st 11.16
After a few bad weeks sometimes it helps to take stock and look a bit closer at where things go right and wrong - even after twenty years you never stop learning so this week I will just settle on fewer bets and thinking a bit more outside the box. When betting on golf it is difficult to make money betting on factors such as course and current form when these things are factored into prices so its time to get a bit more analytical.
The European Tour stays in China this week and returns to the Tomson course where we had lots of event seven to eleven years ago. It strikes me that it is not a bombers course and low scores will not necessarily be the norm as long as you take out Ernie Els' emphatic victory!
Matteo Manassero is priced up this week as a complete no hoper yet there have been signs in the last few events of a return to form. First of all we have to remember than he is still only twenty two and reading his Twitter feed he may well have been inspired in recent weeks by the exploits of Spieth. The problem with his game has been his driving accuracy - as low as 25% in some events this season which when you are short off the tee puts far too much pressure on the rest of your game. In his last two events he has started hitting 70% of fairways and this has led to him being 4th and 8th in GIR - with the pressure off his putting game then if this improves a little he should be in contention. Last weeks venue would certainly not have suited but looking at the list of Tomson winners - Els, Clarke, Jimenez etc they are all fine players of Wentworth so maybe the course will suit the young Italian £25 ew 150/1 + £20 150
I feel a bit sorry for Raphael Jacquelin as when he finds a course he can play it seems to be taken off the rotation - looking back at his five career wins we have
Broekpolder - 6th 96 then won 97 - he then moved off the Challenge Tour
Club de Campo de Madrid - 4th 04 then won 05 - he then missed cut on his defence but it hasn't been used since
Donnafugata - won 11 - only time it has been used
El Saler - 8th 01 then won in 13 - not been used since
We now return to the Tomson course where he led in 05 after the opening round, won in 07 and then was 42nd in defence - I maybe guessing but I am sure he will be one player glad to get back there. His recent form has been steady if unspectacular but he is the sort of player who can turn it on from nowhere £15 win 120 Betfair £25 ew 100/1 + £15 ew 80/1 FRL
april 15th 15.09
The PGA Tour returns to normal this week after the Masters but we do have an event steeped in history with its own winners jacket - the RBC Heritage from Harbour Town links. This is an event where the shorter more accurate players tend to come to the fore which is nice for those who don't bomb it off the tee.
Ben Martin was the player that first jumped off the page when I saw the prices on Monday - I had him marked down around 50-66 was was pleasantly surprised to see three figures on offer. I had made a note as he lies 3rd in scoring average here out of those players who have played at least twice - only trailing Furyk and Weekley in that department - mainly due to a 3rd place last year. Being a South Carolina native he has an extra incentive to win in his home state and most of his best form on the tour came on the East coast. I can forgive him a missed cut at the Masters in his first pro start but he was coming nicely into form before that with a final round 65 at the PGA National and then finishing 5th at Bay Hill. For me he ticks a lot of boxes this week and if he can warm the putter up he should go well £60 ew 100/1 + £15 100 Betfair
Matt Every also opened up a bigger price than I'd expected having successfully defended his title at Bay Hill. His course form is fairly solid with an 8th and 12th alongside two missed cuts. The reason I like him is that most of his best results have come at the shorter more traditional tracks where distance isn't key and he also won the Tour Championship in South Carolina at the Daniel Island Club. £55 win 110 £25 top 5 20 Betfair
Lastly I will put up Scott Brown who seems to be very much a horses for courses kind of player who lives and went to college in South Carolina. He has been 1st,5th and 10th in Puerto Rico, 4th and 20th Sea Island, 5th and 7th Deere Run plus numerous other double top finishes on the lower tour. He managed a 5th here last season and comes here in much the same form £40 win 260 average + £25 top 5 35 Betfair
april 15th 10.04
First of all this week I will kick off with a few words about my rare foray onto the LPGA tour in the Lotte Championship which starts today. Austin Ernst comes here on the back of three career best finishes in the events she has just played. Her form here in Hawaii reminds me of the event she won at Columbia Edgewater last season. There in 2013 she was 9th after a poor 75 in round two but bounced back with a superb 62 in round three to climb the leaderboard. Her finish here in 2013 was not quite as good but she followed a poor round three of 80 with a final round 66 to climb back to 38th. With a tour win under her belt, in good form and on a course where she knows she can go low 100/1 seemed a fair price £25 ew.
The Shenzhen International didn't hold much appeal at first glance but I have still ended up having three bets. On first glance at the prices Chris Wood made plenty of appeal despite a missed cut last year when he was coming off a missed cut at the Trophee Hassan and in Spain. Returning from injury he was actually 3rd in Morocco on his last start. His two career wins have come in Qatar and Thailand so he is happy on the road and is hence worth a bet £35 ew 66/1
Andrew Dodt hasn't been sighted since he won for us at 125/1 in Thailand and has never played here before but in theory the big hitter should be well suited to the course. He owes us nothing after that win so is worth a small investment £30 win 120 £20 top 5 20 Betfair
Left field pick this week goes to Ben Evans who has been around for a while but never achieved a great deal but his recent form is encouraging. A 12th in India and 9th in Morocco are his best finishes on the main tour and he was 2nd in the top English category in both events. Again he hasn't played the course before but he hits it a mile and will be glad to be back in China where he was 2nd on the Challenge Tour in October £15 490 win £40 ew Top English 33/1 1/4 4 + £10 ew 150/1 FRL

april 8th 12.06
It's time for the first Major of 2015 - the US Masters and in theory with the same course being used every year and with a limited field with a number of players who cannot win it should be an easier puzzle to solve! There are a few basic rules to observe - it is a well documented fact that Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 remains the only player to win on his first appearance. It comes as no great surprise as it is a course which a player needs to know before performing well on with so many nuances it is unlike any other golf course.
Don’t back defending champion Bubba Watson unless you think he is a player of the highest calibre. The only players to win back to back so far are - Nicklaus 65/66 Faldo 89/90 Woods 01/02 so if you don’t think he belongs in such illustrious company give him a swerve.
The last winner in his 40’s was Mark O’Meara back in 1998 and he was only 41 and was at the peak of his career winning the Open Championship later that year.
Do make sure your player made the cut at last years Masters as all the winners bar one in the last twenty years made the cut at Augusta the year before. The only player to have missed the cut was Tiger Woods in 1996 so I guess that is one exception we can accept.
Do check the weather - not just the forecast compared with tee times as to who might get the most favourable conditions such as wind strength but also look at what the weather has been like running up to the tournament. If it has been really wet and Augusta National is playing even longer than normal then you can rule out the shorter hitters.
Do bet in running - all bookmakers will be doing this through all four days but try and wait until your player is through the 12th hole. The reasons are fairly straightforward as the all time hardest holes are the 10th followed by the 12th and then the 11th . After that tough challenge things ease down a little as the 13th is the second easiest and the 15th the easiest.
Billy Horschell is my strongest bet of the week and in my mind is very much the wrong price - hence the big bet. When betting if you think a price is wrong then it's time to go in heavy and that's exactly what I have done. Horschell was so impressive at the end of last season when he went 2nd, 1st, 1st in the last three events of the season and it was hardly a major surprise he struggled to capture that form after the birth of his child. I have been keeping a close eye on him in recent months and reading all his interviews it is clear he has felt his game has been close. Then in his last event it finally clicked - his GIR stats were good in the Texas Open and he finished 3rd. Looking back he has managed to string a series of good finishes together before apart from last year he also went..... He made the cut on his Masters debut last season and although he struggled on the greens he was actually 2nd for GIR and Augusta National is a difficult place to master the greens first time of asking. I make him a lot shorter than he is and have gone for £140 ew 80/1
I backed Angel Cabrera a few months ago when he seemed to be hitting form and he is one player you can definitely say is an Augusta specialist. Since then not a lot has happened in his game but he can always turn it on around here and despite the fact he is probably too old and missed the cut last year I am always happy to have him onside in the Masters £30 ew 100/1 + £15 120
Russell Henley could follow in the footsteps of fellow Georgia Bulldog Bubba Watson and one day put on a Green Jacket. He has been in solid form over the past nine months amassing four top four finishes including last time out in the Houston Open where he topped the all round stats. Whilst he is not the longest hitter on tour he is certainly no slouch and has a pair of wins on tour. He improved on his Masters debut to finish 31st last year when he was 2nd in the putts per round category so he is certainly able to cope with the greens £25 ew 125/1 7 places + £30 170
Stephen Gallacher is my idea of a dark European horse in this years renewal and last years debut 34th needs a closer look. He really struggled on the the three tough holes from the 10th to the 12th where in round three he had three consecutive double bogeys leading to an 81 but his other rounds were 71,72 and 70 and he was 8th in the all round stats. He has proved he can win big events such as the Dubai Masters and the Dunhill Links. To be honest I have struggled to decide how to back him but in the end have plumped for £50 win 590 (to hopefully trade) £25 ew top Euro 100/1 1/4 3 and £50 top 20 8/1

april 1st 12.01
As I seem to be doing a lot better with my outsiders of late thats what I have stuck with for this weeks Shell Houston Open - three players at very big prices - lets hope one of them can go just that little bit better than last weeks 300/1 3rd Mikael Lundberg.
Hudson Swafford has been undone in his last two events by a couple of tardy starts in poor weather. Firstly at Bay Hill he was +5 through nine holes yet still climbed to 11th overall and topped the all round stats for the week. Last week he reached +5 after just three holes yet finished 35th and was 9th in the all round stats. He is clearly in good form if he can get off to a good start he should finish a lot higher this week. He was 43rd on his only start here last year but at the time he was in poor form having missed his previous two cuts and going on to miss his next six so I will hazard a guess that he can play the course. He has a pair of top tens on the PGA tour so far and a pair of 11th and 12th placed finishes £50 win 290 average Betfair £50 top 5 40/1 £25 top 10 12/1 incl ties
Chesson Hadley is a regular pick for me and he bounced back to form with a 4th place finish in the Texas Open last week with a brilliant display of putting. I don't really have a lot to add as this is his debut in Houston but at the price I do think he is worth a play £45 120 + £35 25/1 top 5 Betfair
This weeks left field pick is Brice Garnett who seems to come alive when he gets to Texas. Last year he was 7th here having finished 31st the week before in the Texas Open - he was 30th last week so is obviously in the same sort of shape. He led the Colonial at the cut last year and has also been 3rd and 9th on the tour in Texas. When asked last year why he plays well in Texas he answered that he grew up playing in windy conditions in Missouri and played a lot of minor tour golf at the start of his career here and that he simply feels comfortable. £10 ew 300/1 £30 top 10 28/1 £25 win 575 average
march 25th 11.17
With the wind due to blow in true Texas style on day one of the Valero Texas Open I have limited my pre-event selections to just two as you could easily find your selection out with the washing after day one. I have gone for a couple of Australians who should be able to handle the wind on a course that many golfers from down under say reminds them of those around the Mornington Peninsula. It should therefore come as no surprise that we already have two winners from that country in Scott and Bowditch in the five years this venue has been used.
Matt Jones has been in top form so far this year finishing 7/14/3 in his last three starts and being in close contention in two of those. He defends his maiden PGA tour title in Texas next week and may well be in a relaxed mood this week - which is important as he found it very difficult to finally cross the winning line. His form around here is nothing exceptional but the same could be said of his Redstone form before he won and he reminds me a lot of Bowditch in that respect. He would be a lot shorter price if he had exhibited some decent form here but I am happy to take a chance at the price available and if in contention he could become a good trade. He hit a low of 5/2 at Pebble Beach and something similar would see us come out with a decent profit £70 win 60/1 Betfair.
It seems I am not alone in picking Geoff Ogilvy this week who these days seems to be capable of finding some form from nowhere so don't be too worried about his current level of form - at least he has been making cuts and had a 1st and 2nd on tour towards the end of last season. His form around here really caught my eye in his only two starts he led at the cut in 2011 and was 11th last year. It is a tough course and in tough conditions he is the sort of player you want on your side £10 ew 200/1 + £30 230/1 Betfair
march 24th 16.01
After the farce that was Madeira last week it looks like we are in for a treat with this weeks Trophy Hassan II from the fabulous Golf du Palais Royal in Morocco. It definitely seems this in parts tree lined course which is exposed to the coastal breezes has become a bit of a horses for courses venue but with that goes the problem that all those players tend to be underpriced. Therefore I have looked for players who have form at similar courses such as East London,Durban, Royal Portrush, Oitavos Dunes, those used for the KLM Open, even the ill fated Santo de Serra course which was also designed by Trent Jones snr.
Julien Quesne has been rather plagued by niggling injuries over the past few years but he remains a talented player who will add to his two European tour victories and this seems the ideal venue. He has plenty of top ten finishes at all the relevant venues including here and was 8th at East London two starts ago. He was only 37th on his only other start here in 2012 but that did come the week after his first European tour victory. He clearly likes golf in Morocco as we can see by his 9th here in 2013 but also a 2nd and 3rd on the Challenge Tour when it visited the country. £40 ew 66/1
Mark Tullo can't boast the same level of form in Morocco but he has won the Egyptian Open in North Africa before. He also had a good finish at East London two starts ago when 10th to add to a 5th there in 2013. He has also been 2nd at Santo de Serra and 3rd on the links in the Scottish Open so can clearly play coastal breezy courses. At the price I think he is worth a small investment £20 ew 150/1 + £10 180 Betfair.
My one pick from left field this week is Mikael Lundberg who has a big price tag considering he won just last June on tour. As for the corresponding courses he can boast a 5th at Royal Portrush (only derailed by a poor 3rd round), 4th Santo de Serra. 4th Oitavos Dunes. He has two wins on the tree lined Moscow course which was interestingly designed by Trent Jones jnr and where last years winner Canizares secured his maiden tour win. His form here is nothing spectacular though he played well for the first three rounds on his debut when he putted really well. Putting seems to be key around here and Lundberg topped that category at East London two starts ago. £15 ew 300/1 + £20 top 10 22/1 + £35 365 average Betfair.
march 18th 21.10
Apologies for the delays this week - much on the plate so just a brief rundown of this weeks other bets starting with the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Jason Kokrak is a winner in waiting in my opinion and as he was 4th here last year (his best result of the season) it could easily be this week. He warmed up nicely last week with a 7th at Innisbrook and has won in Florida before on the tour £40 ew 80/1
I feel sorry for Sam Saunders in that he will always live under the shadow of his grandfather but at least he has plenty of experience around Bay Hill due to that relationship. He got into the play-off in Puerto Rico the other week and to be honest bounced back well at Innisbrook on his course debut to finish 24th. If he can get close then he could prove to be a good trade - hence the £45 @ 400 on Betfair.
Brian Harman seems to have fallen out of favour but it was only July when he won his maiden title. That came at Deere Run on a course where he blew up in the final round on his debut when lying third and then missed the cut the following year. On his debut at Bay Hill he was 17th after an opening 77 and over the last three rounds only Tiger played better, but then he has missed the cut on the number the last two years. His win and his third place finish last year came after two missed cuts so I am not too concerned about that and he showed he was in good form at the Honda when 11th. He has a 10% top ten strike rate on tour - hence the bet £20 370 Betfair + 30 14/1 top 10
Last but not least is Lucas Glover who actually has a decent scoring average around Bay Hill. At present he is striking the ball very well and if the putting finally clicks he could once again enter the winners enclosure £30 250 Betfair
I will write a small bit about Kirk Triplett in this weeks Champions Tour Tucson Classic played for the first time over the Omni Tucson course where Triplett won on the PGA tour in 2006 - he had also been 3rd and 7th previously. He now has four wins on this tour in just 59 starts and a 23.7% top five strike rate so in reality he should be more like a 16/1 shot. I also like the fact that he has won twice at Pebble Beach at this level and had previously won the Pebble Beach Invitational - he may well prove to be the archetypal horses for courses player! £50 ew 28/1
march 18th 16.42
This week the European Tour almost makes it back to the mainland but settles for the small island of Madeira and it has been a happy hunting ground for me. I have backed the winner twice in this weak event with Hanell 200/1 and Hoey 45/1 - this time round I have settled for a couple of French players to take away the trophy.
Victor Riu has only played twice season finishing 24th in both the Joburg and Indian Opens which actually reads quite well compared to some of the players on show this week. This is basically a glorified Challenge Tour event and he does at least have a win on that tour in 2013 and has numerous other top ten finishes on other courses on that tour which bear a close resemblance to Santo de Serra such as Blue Green Golf and Tecina. Whilst his course form is not exceptional he has at least made both cuts and if he can reproduce the form that saw him finish 8th in his home national last year he should go close £7.50 ew 68/1 + £30 65 Betfair
My other French player is a former British Amateur champion Julien Guerrier who to be honest hasn't really "trained on". He was 3rd here last year in the thirty six hole nonsense that transpired but he was also 11th in his only other appearance in 2012 so he can clearly play the course. He has also been 2nd and 5th on the island course of Tecina so maybe he likes these island layouts. I must admit finding any current form has been hard but it appears he has been warming up in the States and won a minor tour event in Florida just last week shooting a 65 in the one round event so his swing would appear to be working fine - £30 ew 95/1
march 11th 14.59
The last few weeks has seen us go very close on the PGA tour with Bae, Reed and then Curran so hopefully we can finally get one over the line in this weeks Valspar Championship.
A lot of people think that Daniel Berger has simply got too short in the betting after his playoff loss last time out - I am not so sure. His stats are very impressive - in his last two starts he has now topped the all round rankings. This is very much a weaker field than the Honda Classic the other week and he has had a week to recover. A bit like the PGA National course he has some history around Innisbrook having played it plenty of times and was 2nd here in a top junior event. Being a young player I can see him come out all guns firing and will take more from the defeat to Harrington than maybe an ageing pro would £70 ew 55/1 + £50 50 Betfair
I am quite surprised at the Martin Laird price this week as he will be fresher than most and has great current and course/Florida form. He made three starts on the West Coast and has been in contention at both Scottsdale and Torrey Pines finally finishing 5th and 7th.He has good form in Florida including a 1st, 2nd and 5th in the Players Championship and has a best finish of 5th here in 2011. He has been saved from the tough conditions at PGA National, Doral or indeed Puerto Rico and can make a bold bid for his fourth PGA tour title £50 ew 50/1 + £50 66/1 Betfair
Last man in for me is Chesson Hadley who I think will go on to pick up more victories on the PGA tour having done well defending his title last week in Puerto Rico. To be honest he could easily have defended last week and only a poor third round in difficult conditions prevented that. Just like last year he was 10th at Pebble Beach and if he can play the same courses well you would have to give a good chance at Innisbrook. His opening round 75 last year was understandable as he would have been cloud nine following his first win but he played as well as anyone over the next three rounds to finish 14th. He obviously has a win in Florida but Innisbrook is often described as a Carolina course and the North Carolina native has a win and a third close to home on the tour - £40 win 230 Betfair £20 top 5 50/1 £30 top 10 18/1

march 11th 11.56
Having got last weeks co-sanctioned Africa Open very wrong last week I have decided to tread with extreme caution in this weeks Tschwane Open. When prices first came out on on Betfair I snaffled up a whole £26 @ 100/1 on Jean Hugo as he won around Pretoria the last time he played here on the Sunshine tour in 2011. To that victory you can also add a 2nd, 6th, 8th and 9th so he clearly likes it around here. He often reminds me a bit of last weeks Fisher in that he often struggles when the European tour arrives but maybe his compatriots win last week will inspire him.
Whilst the home contingent have dominated these events (bar Andy Sullivan) I will give big hitting Andrew Johnston a crack. Last week he finished mid division but did manage twenty two birdies and an eagle - he just needs to keep the mistakes off his card and maybe this weeks venue will be more suitable. Last years Challenge tour money list winner was 3rd in the Alfred Dunhill Championship in South Africa before Christmas which will go a long way to helping him secure his card and is worth a small play £25 ew 100/1.
I will take this opportunity to say a few words about my pick Rafael Becker on the tour in the HSBC Brasil Champions. Some of you may remember I put the young Brasilian up for last years Latino American Abierto de Brasil at 150/1 and 100/1 which he went on to win. The reasons behind that pick were that he had recently won his first pro event in his home country and was playing at the Gavea course where despite missing the cut the year before he had won the Brasil Amateur Championship in 2011. Conditions are very similar this week where he tees up in his home city Sao Paulo on a course he has quite a history on. In 2013 he played in this event as an amateur and was an impressive 26th. He returned last year but just missed the cut but I am prepared to give him a go this week as he won one of his three Brasilian Amateur titles around Sao Paulo in 2012. He warmed up with a 3rd in a local 36 hole event last week and I make him a confident pick despite the step up in class £40 ew 125/1

march 9th 08.29
At the moment I feel like I am doing a lot right - just not quite finishing things off. With Reed and Bae in recent weeks I made the right call in backing to lay off and maybe should have made a bit more of the situation. Yesterday Curran nearly got us a big win and for a change actually made the full place payout but I didn't trade any of it even though he touched odds on. The simple reason being is I don't really like hedging bets on Betfair unless I have backed them on there. It maybe a bit silly but I always worry that things can go wrong with bookmaker bets and it could be a double whammy of laying a bet and not getting paid.
Anyway - after the win of Dodt I feel things are going well and this week we have the added fun of the Cheltenham Festival
march 8th 15.06
As these bets can easily get lost on the Twitter favourites feed - time for a recap of Antepost bets
RSA Chase The Young Master £40 7/1 NRNB
Gold Cup Holywell £40 10/1 NRNB
Grand Annual Ted Veale £20 ew 16/1 NRNB
Grand National
Chance du Roy £100 80/1
Mon Parrain £60 ew 50/1 + £7.50 ew 66/1 + £50 70/1
Harry the Viking £10 ew 150/1
US Masters golf
Angel Cabrera £30 ew 100/1 + £15 120/1
march 4th 14.32
Six players may seem like a lot to back in just a 74 runner affair in this weeks WGC Cadillac Championship from Doral but to me they are all value prices on Betfair and hopefully I will get to trade a bit over the four days.
Some of you may well have noticed the slim looking Jason Dufner who lost a load of weight as basically he wants to secure his future ability to play golf. Often heavy weight loss can have a detrimental effect on a players game and initially it seemed that way with Dufner but his performance last week showed an upturn in form. He has some solid form at Doral including on the revamped course last year - although sadly his rounds of 68 and 69 were sandwiched between rounds of 76 and 77. £60 90
Brendan Todd is making his Doral debut and will therefore have no preconceived ideas about how to play it. He has turned into a very consistent player and secured his maiden win last year and the price just caught my eye as being a bit big £34 190
Russell Henley seems to be a player quickly pushed out in price which is surprising as he already has a couple of wins on tour. One of those wins was the Honda Classic also played in Florida and he has won on the tour in this state as well. His form hasn't been that bad this season and his 3rd in the Tournament of Champions reads well £25 210
Stephen Gallacher is turning into a very consistent player around the globe and whilts he may not win very often he does get himself up there in lots of top events. He was 6th here last season closing brilliantly at the weekend and offers a touch of value here £30 265
I will put up fellow Scot Marc Warren as well at the price as he is incredibly consistent these days and on his last two trips to the States for the PGA Championship has finished in the top fifteen. £20 330
Last but not least John Senden has drifted rapidly this week but I like backing players the week before they defend a title as they seem a little more relaxed. Whilst he is not currently in the best of form a return to Florida may work well £25 265
march 4th 11.11
I had quite a list of players to back for this weeks Africa Open at the East London course because it suits a certain type of player. Michael Hoey was high on the list and I managed £10 ew at 100/1 when prices first came out but I don't like the price he is now. Young Spaniard Otaegui is one who should also go well but the price for a non winner is just way too short so in the end I went for a big bet on a confirmed winner, a smaller bet on someone who also knows how to win and a promising young rookie.
David Horsey was top of my list last year and he finished 3rd and I was surprised to see him slightly bigger this year. Last year was his debut on the course but he has great form at the tracks used for the KLM Open and the Golf du Palais Royal which bear close scrutiny in comparison to here. I proved to be correct last year so I don't see why he should be bigger in price twelve months on with confirmed suitability and another win on another tree lined track in Russia. Maybe the current form puts people off but there were definite signs of an upswing last week and to be honest he can find his form from nowhere £60 ew 55/1 + £20 ew 50/1 + £10 Betfair 55
I will take a chance on Felipe Aguilar on his first visit as he seems to like golf in South Africa despite playing infrequently. Three visits in the last four years have yielded a pair of 3rd place finishes and he did win on the tour in Singapore last year so the price just felt a little too big £20 ew 100/1
The young rookie I find a decent price is Kevin Phelan who has been 3rd in Hong Kong and 2nd in the Joburg Open in his last five starts. Some people will point out he missed the cut here last season but he also missed the cut at both the above named events so maybe he is a quick learner who needs a bit of course experience. Whatever the case I do think he offers a little bit more value than others around him in the betting and looking at his stats the course really should suit £40 ew 66/1 + £10 70 Betfair
march 3rd 18.50
Well last week was certainly eventful on the PGA tour and showed the importance for a second week running of being able to lay back a bet and get a profit. Just like last week when Bae traded low and finished out of the places Reed followed suit. I managed to lay £300 @ 4/1 and a further £400 @ 6/4 and he went as low as 8/11 but ultimately never even made the top five. This weeks PGA tour event is the Puerto Rico Open where I have twice tipped the winner in recent years with McNeill and Hadley and when I spot a pattern I must go in with decent bets.
Daniel Berger was always pencilled in for this although he would in all probability have been prohibitively short so Derek Fathauer becomes my main interest. It doesn't take a genius to spot the Florida link with players who do well here and Fathauer fits the profile in that he was born and lives in the state. When you add in the fact that he won the Tour Championship at Sawgrass Valley in Florida last year (the same as last years winner Hadley) and we already have a strong case. His form over the last few weeks hasn't been that bad and he certainly caught the eye when leading at Riviera and I am sure he will prove to be a better player on the East Coast and this Florida style course should be right up his street. He also has some strong showings when leaving mainland US on the tour. £90 ew 66/1
Second pick is John Curran who reminds me a lot of previous winner Derek Lamely. Like Lamely he too has won the Monday qualifier here (in 2013) to get into the field and put in good showing in the main event. Lamely was 8th at the cut in his first attempt and then came back to win the following year. Curran was 6th at the cut in 2013 although he has had to wait a further year for another bite at the cherry. It is worth noting that Keegan Bradley actually tipped his good friend to put in a bold showing that year. He won wire to wire in Brasil exactly twelve months ago to get his card and already has a pair of top tens on the main tour. The latest of those came at Pebble Beach - identical to Hadley last year and I can see this Florida resident putting in a bold showing this week £40 ew 100/1
FEBRuary 25th 14.54
I always like it when the PGA tour moves from the West Coast to the East for the Florida swing as it means earlier finishes at night! The Honda Classic is played on the PGA National course which proves a stern test and that looks especially so this week with wind and rain forecast for much of the four days.
I just don't get the price on Patrick Reed this week with players much shorter in the betting or the same price who don't seem to have anywhere near the same killer instinct as Reed. In his short career he now has four wins including a WGC event in Florida (when we were on) and the Tournament of Champions last month. He has improved in each start here and I don't see quite why he has drifted in price quite so much. His Betfair price in his last three events since his win have been 16,30 and 20 and I must admit I jumped in early at 46 and have added a bit more at 50 - total stake is £120 @ 46/1
Chris Kirk also knows how to get the job done with three PGA tour wins and a couple on the tour. He seems to do well on courses where he has a few starts under his belt although his win at Annandale (another Jack Nicklaus course) came after just one missed cut. He has plenty of experience around PGA National with a best of 12th last year and he does seem to play well on exposed breezy courses. A top finish at Muirfield Village (yet another Nicklaus course) seems to be indicative of a good finish here and Kirk was 4th there last year. Again I went in early with £50 ew 66/1 and £75 80 on Betfair - adding a further £10 90 this morning.
Luke Guthrie maybe out of form but he has a great scoring record here with a 3rd in 2013 (including a second round 63) and 24th last year when he shot a 65 in round three when paired with Tiger Woods. His only top ten last year came at Muirfield Village so he may well have an affinity for Nicklaus courses. I have had £50 470 Betfair to hopefully trade and £30 top ten 28/1
I was a bit annoyed that Patrick Rodgers won on the tour the week after I tipped him up and I will just have a win only saver on the former World amateur number one just in case he can build on that on the main tour £30 380 Betfair
Just a small wager in the first round leader market on past winner Camilo Villegas who led here in 2013 and actually still missed the cut! £10 ew 125/1
FEBRuary 25th 10.40
For a long time last week I was regretting not putting two players up - Chawrasia and Rahman - in the end I was relieved I didn't as I think I would have been punching holes in a few walls come Sunday! The European tour leaves the Far East behind this week and returns to South Africa and I have just had a series of small bets on three players.
I will keep the faith with John Parry for another week as for three rounds last week he played very well and only a second round 74 stopped him from finishing higher up. I will put a line through the last three missed cuts here and take you back to 2010 when having secured his playing rights via the Challenge Tour he came here in poor form and finished 10th. In his present form and with some good memories he could surprise this week - £20 ew 150/1 6 places + £10 200 Betfair
Sticking with the English theme I will also give Lee Slattery a go because whilst he has no really high finishes here he has been very consistent and does have a very good scoring average. He played a lot in South Africa in his younger days as a pro and finally secured a top finish on his last visit to the country with a 3rd in the South Afican Open last month just one shot out of the playoff £16 ew 125/1 + £10 160 Betfair
I will also have a small bet on Joakim Lagergren who seems a big price considering he was 3rd in India last week. That finish will give him a boost for the season as he seems to be one of those players who will always struggle a bit to keep his playing priveleges. He has played here twice before with finishes of 17th and 55th but there were some decent rounds. With both these factors in mind he is worth chancing this week £10 ew 250/1 6 places + £10 300 Betfair
FEBRuary 18th 12.56
Struggling a bit for time this week so just a brief preview of this weeks Northern Trust which comes from the great Riviera course. A couple of quick pointers - on the whole debutants don't fare very well here so some sort of course experience is a must. Current form is often key and a top six finish at either Pebble Beach or Torrey Pines is a good indicator.
I have gone for four players although the first Sang-Moon Bae is someone I wanted to back with a view to trading out hopefully over the weekend to secure a profit. He has led at the cut in each of the last two years here and now has two PGA tour wins to his name - the early price on Betfair was too big to resist - £75 105 average
Charlie Beljan has an excellent record @ Riviera with a 12th and 2nd place finish to his name and he certainly bounced back to form last week with a 3rd @ Pebble Beach. That performance was particularly noteworthy as he led the all round stats and shook off his past there where he had missed all three cuts previously £30 ew 125/1
Scott Stallings is another with a top recent finish as he came very close to defending his title @ Torrey Pines when losing in a playoff. He is a player who always seems to be underestimated by the layers and is more than capable of stringing good finishes together. He has only played once here lying 2nd last year after the first round with an excellent 67 so he can certainly play the course £30 ew 100/1 + £30 125 Betfair
Robert Streb will have the nappy factor on his side this week and he has had a few weeks to get used to fatherhood. He is in such a fine run of form at present and like Stallings shot an excellent first round here on his only previous start. That 68 was followed by a 77 to miss the cut on the number after a bogey,double bogey finish but he is a much better player now £30 ew 80/1 + £15 95 Betfair
FEBRuary 17th 12.03
Thanks for all the messages after finally nailing a big priced winner with Dodt last week - now the European tour moves onto India. Whilst this is the first time the event is co-sanctioned with the Asian tour we do have plenty of course form to go on with Delhi being used for a whole host of events. The course is tight and tree-lined so one would expect Driving Accuracy to be of a premium but strangely the stats don't necessarily bear that out. The last two events to be held here where we have stats the top players have been 54/34/39 and 44/27/43/70/60/10/34 for DA.
This means I haven't been put off my main tip who struggles a bit off the tee but has been superb on the greens.
Richard T Lee has been 5th in Malaysia and 4th in Thailand in his last two starts in what were arguably stronger fields than this weeks. He also played here in 2013 finishing 8th despite a third round 77 so we have both course and current form. He followed up that 8th in 2013 with a 2nd at the Wack Wack course which is also tricky so it shows he can hold his form. He made his breakthrough win on the Asian tour last year - quite interestingly it came in his next start after playing Black Mountain (although there was a gap!) - but perhaps it's a good omen £13 ew 55/1 + £27 50/1
I have decided to give the Indian players a swerve mainly because it is so difficult to pick just one or two! so my only other pick is course debutant John Parry. He was in the doldrums for some time but got his card back at Q School and I have often felt he is at his best on tree lined parkland type courses. A solid 11th in Thailand last week shows his game is coming around so is worth a small punt £20 ew 125/1
FEBRuary 11th 15.18
The AT&T from Pebble Beach is this weeks port of call on the PGA tour and its another of those events where I have bagged the winner twice before with Oberholser and Points. I always look for players looking for their first win who remind me of those two and my second bet kind of does that but number one pick for me this week is someone who already has a win under his belt
I am happy to admit I have a bit of a soft spot for Michael Thompson who brought me one of my biggest paydays in the US Open in California a few years ago and he really takes my fancy this week. He always seems at his best on coastal courses and he admitted just as much in an interview at Sea Island - he is happy playing near water in a breeze and thats just what he gets this week. He has got progressively better here in three starts and could easily have finished higher than his a9th last year were he not caught by the winds in round three whilst playing Pebble Beach course. What really caught my eye was his 11th place finish last week at Torrey Pines where he has never played well before. That high finish was mainly due to a very hot putter as he was tied first for number of birdies. Admittedly at the moment he cannot seem to hit a cows arse with a banjo but it's not quite as important around these three courses so I am not put off £20 ew 125/1 + £60 155 average Betfair + £20 top 5 25/1 + £20 top 10 11/1
I admit to tweeting that no European has won here before but that has not put me off Greg Owen this week although I really don't think he can win but he may well trade low and he could well finish in the top ten. He has been 3rd, 4th and 9th in nine starts here and actually finally won in the States last year on the tour . He caught my eye last week at Torrey Pines where heading into the back nine he was only a few shots off the lead before losing the plot dropping six shots in six holes but he was 3rd overall for ballstriking. He has often started strongly here and did so the last two years on the Monterey course where he gets to play tomorrow £15 ew FRL Monterey 66/1 +.£15 win 430 average + £32.50 top 10 inc ties 16/1 + £17.50 top 5 inc ties 45/1
FEBRuary 10th 16.01
The European tour stays in the Far East for the inaugural True Thailand Classic from the stunning Black Mountain course. There is some course form to go on from the Asian tour and the course has also established strong ties with many Nordic players. The three winners here are Edfors, Marksaeng and Hiratsuka and I tipped both of the last two winners so here's hoping for a third. I do really fancy big hitting Scott Hend this week but at the prices I would rather look a little further down the list.
SSP Chowrasia is sure to be inspired by compatriot Lahiris' win last week and he really caught my eye in Malaysia. On his first start of the year he put himself out of things with a lacklustre opening 76 with 32 putts - but he was the only player to shoot three rounds in the 60's to finish with putting rounds of 25/26/24 to climb to 10th. In his last co-sanctioned event he was 5th in Hong Kong and won the Panasonic Open in in his homeland on the Asian tour in November. Admittedly he has yet to win outside his India and the course may prove a little long but he has won in this company before and the price seems more than fair £40 ew 80/1
Andrew Dodt certainly won't be left lacking distance off the tee as he is one of the longer hitters on the Asian tour.Like Chowrasia he has also won the DLF Masters - an event split between the tours and finally added a second pro win in Australia last August. He is actually on a long run of very solid form and last year he was 2nd in Thailand in November and 10th here at Black Mountain earlier in the year. £10 ew 150/1 + £20 ew 125/1
Final pick goes to the globetrotting Wen-Chong Liang who as well as several wins in China has also won in the Philippines, India, Singapore and back in 2010 Thailand. He spends most of the year playing in Japan and last year had a 2nd,3rd and 5th to his name although the win eluded him. He has had a solid start to the year - making the cut in the Sony Open and then improved throughout the week in Malaysia. I just have a feeling he is better than his price suggests just because he is making his course debut £20 win 130 + £30 top 5 25/1
FEBRuary 9th 09.17
A few years ago I coined the phrase "premature tipulation" whereby the player you tipped the week before won that week - it came back to haunt me yesterday with Rodgers winning and McCumber coming 5th on the tour at nice chunky prices. To add insult to injury both Glover and Boros played poorly and I have nothing to show for a 500/1 tip who traded at 10/1. Betting on golf can be a cruel game and I went to bed last night feeling very low - but today is the start of a new week - so off we go again. Forgot to add - to add further insult - all horse bets seem to trade low and fail to win atm as well - yesterdays 40/1 tip went as low as 6/5 - ho hum!!
FEBRuary 4th 14.01
The PGA tour moves back to California this week for the Farmers Insurance Open where no doubt we will see and everyone will analyse ever shot of a certain Tiger Woods - I just hope he can play better than he did last Friday. I have gone for two players around a course where the proven ability to win is a must - you have to go back to 1991 and Jay Don Blake to find the last man to win his first PGA tour title here so whilst I respect the chances of both Delaet and Justin Thomas I have to cross them off the list.
Seung-Yul Noh meets the criteria of being a PGA tour winner having picked up his first title in New Orleans last year. He has a solid record at Torrey Pines finishing 27/27/10 and to be honest it's his rounds on the easier North course that have let him down - he can certainly play the South well having finished with a 69 on each occasion. He actually played better than his finishing position suggested last week as he didn't cope well in the wet conditions on Friday and he has been putting really well so far this year. Although I cannot find any obvious link I do find it interesting that recent winners of this Watson and Watney have also won the same event as Noh in Louisiana £40 ew 100/1 + £45 110 average Betfair.
My left field pick Lucas Glover unlike Noh has been struggling with the putter - it's the one part of his game that eludes him at the moment but the swing changes he has made are finally bedding in and he is striking the ball superbly. Maybe a return to the venue where he has been 3rd, 4th and 9th will bring back that change in putting. Famous for his US Open victory we must remember this is a US Open venue so I think he is worth chancing this week £20 win 510 average Betfair £20 top 5 60/1 + £10 50/1 inc ties £30 top 10 22/1 + £15 20/1 inc ties
FEBRuary 4th 11.57
The European tour leaves the Middle East behind and heads to Malaysia for the co-sanctioned Malaysian Open from Kuala Lumpur and I have three picks at big prices.
A bit like Noren last week the one that jumped off the page at the prices to start with was David Lipsky. Last year he was 2nd in one of these events in Singapore and then fulfilled his promise with a win at Crans in Europe. He was 3rd in this when his career got off to a fast start in 2012 although he has been poor since. He was 4th in Malaysia back in September and returned to some form last week in Dubai £30 ew 125/1
Chapchai Nirat is a winner of a co-sanctioned event back in 2007 in China and won his 4th career title in Malaysia ahead of Lipsky the other month. This is his first start of 2015 but in his last four seasonal debut starts he has been 11th,6th,10th and 3rd so he is more than capable of making a fast start. With three top twenty finishes from five starts he can certainly play Kuala Lumpur and he has also been 2nd, 5th and 6th as well as his win in Malaysia. I have backed him in numerous markets including top Thai (£30 ew 12/1) where he has been 3/3/5/1/c in his five starts. Other bets are £25 500 average £30 top 10 21/1 and £10 ew 150/1 FRL and if you can get on the top twenty finish at 7/1 + I would!
Last but not least is a promising young player
Arie Irawan who last week became the top ranked Malaysian player in the world having finally secured his maiden ADT win at home after a whole string of top finishes. That win came on the back of a 2nd placed finish the week before on the Asean tour so he is clearly in good form. The course will hold no fears for him as its his home course but the biggest problem for me is how to back him. At the moment I have £24 1000/1 on Betfair and £6 ew 270/1 FRL but I may well add further bets but am put off by his late tee time - keep an eye on Twitter for further updates.
january 28th 13.34
There will be quite a few changes on show at this weeks Phoenix Open and the course should play tougher than it has in the past. Players with good GIR stats have fared well here in the past and I think that stat could prove even more important with the changes that have been introduced so I have put up two picks who excel in that department.
Robert Streb secured his maiden PGA title in the Fall after a consistent run of form and he has maintained that ever since and has performed well in his two starts in Hawaii. His finish in the Sony was much better than past efforts and he even seemed surprised as he said he needs a bit more room off to tee to be seen at his best. Whilst he hasn't played here before that doesn't put me off as Stanley and Holmes both won on their course debuts £20 ew 80/1 + £40 70 Betfair
Shawn Stefani is also on a great run of form - 2nd in the OHL Classic before Christmas he picked up where he left off in Hawaii with a 6th (again an improved performance) and after playing himself out of things with an opening 75 last week he played better than anyone thereafter climbing to an impressive 15th. He did miss the cut on his only start here in 2013 but he is a much improved player now £30 ew 100/1 + £10 100 on Betfair.
One small late bet on Camilo Villegas who may well get off to a fast start again here - he led in 2010 after an opening 62, was 3rd after round one in 2008 when he went on to lead at the cut and was 2nd overall in his debut in 2006. He shot an opening 63 to lie 3rd in Hawaii and when he won in August he was the first round leader £10 ew FRL 125/1 + £10 310 Betfair
january 27th 15.41
I was very tempted last week to back Alex Noren in Qatar but I was worried he may "bounce" having been off with injury for so long but he shot a solid opening round and a brilliant 65 on Sunday to finish 9th. To be honest I expected his price to be heavily cut this week but strangely it hasn't. If last week is anything to go by he still retains a large amount of his talent despite the long lay off and when he last teed it up here two years a go he was as short as 33/1. I wouldn't say he has a stellar record around the Emirates course but he always seems to start well and this year he has rather a lot of lost time to catch up on. As a three time winner on tour I am happy to make him a solid bet this week before the odds start to tumble £60 win 94/1 average + £30 top 5 14/1
Felipe Aguilar is my other each way pick for the week and he also didn't play here last year due to an injury but the year before he was 3rd in a solid run of early season form. He finally added another European tour title to his collection last year in Singapore after many close calls. He normally needs a few rounds to get going so a missed cut in Abu Dhabi was followed by a very encouraging 23rd in Qatar £20 ew 150/1
I have added a couple of plays on Betfair on players that just seem too high in price to me - especially compared to the bookmaker prices available. Thongchai Jaidee @ 120 just seems wrong when you look at his credentials - £25. Anders Hansen doesn't win very often but was 2nd behind Aguilar last year. He has been 2nd and 4th here before and has had a steady start to the season £25 350
january 27th 11.34
I am not sure I have finished betting in Dubai or Phoenix so I will quickly put up a few notes on Karrie Webb in the Coates Championship which starts tomorrow. The LPGA tour kicks off at the Golden Ocala course in Florida - the scene of her first pro win 20 years ago on the Futures tour. She has lots of fond memories of the "odd" course which seeks to replicate famous golf holes from around the world, and it was also the place she met her American "parents". She often gets off to a fast start winning in her first event in each of the last two years (she also won in 2008,2007,2005 and 2000) - I can see the price going fast as a few people have picked up on the same thing - was only allowed £30 ew 40/1
january 21st 11.36
There don't appear to be any hard and fast rules when attempting to find the winner of the Humana Challenge although younger players who have coped well with pro-am formats before, who play well early season and who have form around low scoring courses such as Annandale often do well here. In the end this left me with a very long long list but I have whittled it down to five.
Some of you may recall me putting up Scott Stallings here two years ago at a triple figure price and watch him blow a five shot lead - so it is difficult to go for him again but I feel he is simply too big a price this week. He won for the third time on tour a year ago in California and is well worth having onside this week £30 ew 90/1 + £15 100 Betfair.
Chesson Hadley didn't play well here last year but that is not a prerequisite. He went on to win his maiden PGA title on a resort course and he had also been 5th at Summerlin. Add in a top ten at the Pebble Beach pro-am and a 3rd on the pro-am and I think he may well have a good chance this week - especially as he has been practicing here since last Friday. £25 160 Betfair + £25 25/1 top 5 including ties Sportingbet
Carlos Ortiz seems to be a name quickly forgotten having won three times on the tour last season. He has had a solid start to his PGA tour career including a top ten in front of his home crowd in Mexico which must have been tough. Don't worry about the missed cut in Hawaii that course wouldn't have suited him but it would have blown away the cobwebs. £25 win 350 average Betfair + £30 top 10 22/1
Nicholas Thompson did make the cut last week in Hawaii with only a poor final round stopping him from producing a good finish but it was only the second time he had made the cut and when he did in 2013 he came here and finished 6th. Other notable finishes in his career include a 7th at Pebble Beach and 4th at Annandale so in theory this week presents him with one of his best chances although I must admit I prefer the top ten angle with him £20 win 270 average + £30 top 10 16/1
Last pick is way out from left field - Jim Renner who is basically hit or miss. In just 53 PGA tour starts he does actually have three top 5's to his name - at Montreux and interestingly Annandale and last year when 2nd at Pebble Beach. He was suffering from an elbow injury for much of last year after that top finish but apparently is fit again £10 ew 1000/1 + £10 70 top ten and £12 1000 on Betfair

january 20th 11.35
No joy last week in Abu Dhabi with 100/1 pick Tyrrell Hatton filling that worst spot for each way backers - 6th! Onto this week and they move onto Qatar - don't forget this starts early tomorrow morning - Wednesday.
Whilst I am tempted to side with Hatton once more I feel at half the price of last week there is little juice left in the tank but I have put up three other Englishmen and a Scot who seemed overpriced on the Exchanges last night.
At first glance the course form of James Morrison appears pretty woeful but he had been even worse at Abu Dhabi with all six rounds 73 and over yet last week he shot 68 67 72 67 to finish in a tie for 6th. This is indicative of a good run of form that saw him finish 4th in the Perth International before Christmas and a solid 15th in his season opening event the South African Open. On Saturday - the final day of the event he turns thirty - it would certainly be some way to celebrate! £25 ew 100/1 + £30 130 average Betfair
Steve Webster seems to like playing in the desert these days - in 2013 he was 4th here and then 7th in Dubai whilst last year he was 5th in both events. This could be indicative of the fact that he now has a permanent base in Dubai. Last weeks 12th in Abu Dhabi was his best ever finish there and after a rusty opening 73 he performed as well as anyone over the final three days. It has to be said he is not the strongest in contention so I may well trade the bet if he gets there £45 win 90 average and £50 top 5 18/1
Last night I spotted on Betfair that Richie Ramsay was trading at 220 on Betfair and duly stuck £20 on - no great reasoning behind the bet other than the fact that the price just seemed too high.
Final bet goes to young Tom Lewis in the first round leader category. Several times in his young career he has come out all guns blazing and with links exponents doing well around Doha it wouldn't surprise me to see him use his early tee time to advantage this week £10 ew 150/1

january 14th 15.05
I always have a fondness for the Sony Open in Hawaii as it has produced two 100/1 winners for me and it is one of the best events to profile winners and players who do well year in year out. Basically you are looking for older, experienced shorter hitting pro's with a couple of wins under their belt who can plot their way round the course. Also look for those players who have plenty of course experience although top past finishes is not necessarily a priority. Whilst it isn't always the case. Whilst a runout can be a plus in the Hyundai Champions event it isn't always the case so I have gone for two who played last week and two who didn't.
Tim Clark certainly fits the bill and he finally got his second PGA tour win last year meaning he blew away the cobwebs last week. Year in year out you will only see Clark perform to his best on this type of course and you can see that in his results here in the past. Forget last years w/d as he was carrying an injury but he was 2nd in both his two previous outings. In all honesty he was robbed of the HSBC Champions event before Christmas and I think he is still a good price this week £80 ew 40/1 + £15 42 Betfair
Kevin Streelman is the second player I have gone for who is already acclimatised to Hawaii having thrown in two good rounds and two average ones last week. He now has two wins in the past two years and plenty of other top class finishes. Like a lot of recent winners of this event he has plenty of course experience with no high finishes but plenty of low rounds thrown in. He has plenty of top finishes at similar layouts including a couple of thirds at Hilton Head and El Camaleon and you can throw in a 6th at Sea island. He is a much better price on the exchanges than the books and that's where I placed my bets £40 90/1 and £40 top 5 16/1.
Next up is two time Harbour Town winner Boo Weekly who I have always thought should play this course well although he has only finished in the top ten once in eight attempts. His last win came in 2013 at the Colonial course which is also a good pointer to this week. To be honest he usually goes off at a restrictive price in events like this but considering he was 2nd in his last PGA tour start in Mississippi in November I think he is overpriced this week £30 ew 100/1 + £48 125 average on Betfair
I have put up George McNeill for this event a few times before and I will probably continue to do so as I think he is well suited and has a good scoring average. His last win was in 2012 in Puerto Rico so he is certainly comfortable playing on a breezy coastal track.£25 ew 125/1 + £30 165 average Betfair
january 14th 11.24
Apologies for the delays in this weeks previews - lots of things going on and no time to sit down and write! We will kick off with the Abu Dhabi Championship which has gradually become a mainstay of the European Tour. It always attracts a top quality field but there have been surprises aplenty and plenty of big priced winners and I have gone for three that sort of fall into that category.
It's been three years since Rafael Cabrera-Bello graced the winners enclosure in the Dubai Desert Classic but he has come close on numerous occasions since. That includes leading here at the cut last year before going onto finish 4th (he was also 7th in 2011) and he was tied for the lead in the season ending DP World Championship before a disappointing final round dropped him to 9th. Add in a brace of 3rd placed finishes in Qatar in the last few years and I think we can safely say he is a good desert player. I placed £15 ew 66/1 + £35 ew 60/1 + £10 62 on Betfair to maybe trade for a profit.
Tyrrell Hatton had a fine rookie season with a 2nd,3rd,4th, 6th in the DP World Championship and also 10th here - which was his first top ten finish on the main tour.He was also 6th in the Challenge Tour Grand Final in 2013 in the UAE so is clearly comfortable in the desert. He did manage to let slip a couple of chances to win last year but we have to remember he was a rookie and is only 23 years old. I am sure this season he will be more prepared to win and will surely be inspired by Sullivans win last week £30 ew 100/1
My one from left field is top Challenge Tour graduate Andrew Johnston who had a superbly consistent season last year at the level and came out all guns blazing before Christmas finishing 3rd in the Alfred Dunhill Championship and already more or less securing his playing rights. If there was a stat to look for in Abu Dhabi I would suggest GIR and Johnston is a fine exponent of that. It would be a lot to ask of him to make such a big event his maiden win but the price was just a little too big to ignore £40 250 win average £25 top 5 28/1 £25 top 10 12/1 both ties paid in full + £10 top 5 36/1

january 6th 15.16
The European Tour kicks off 2015 down in South Africa with this years South African Open that comes from the Glendower course for the second year running. I have gone with a mainly young team who to be honest fall mainly in the solid potential category with Horsey being the exception to the rule having been there and done it already!
David Horsey certainly knows how to win events in fact he has three to his name on the main tour but a bit like his Northern Irish namesake with two less letters in his surname he can be a nightmare to catch right! I think he is at his best on parkland courses and did well in South Africa last year - so much so in that I had him more like a 33/1 shot this week - £3 ew 55/1 + £50 ew 50/1
Matthew Nixon will have fond memories of Glendower as he held the outright lead last year after day one. He became a bit more consistent as a golfer last year and with some of his highest career finishes coming on parkland courses tis is the sort of event he could breakthrough £10 ew 150/1 + £12 180 Betfair + £10 ew FRL 120/1
I will take a small risk on Espen Kofstad who returned from long term injury problems to get his card back at Q School and then finish a solid 14th at Leopard Creek before Christmas. He showed back in 2012 on the Challenge Tour he was a big talent and hopefully injury free he can fulfill that potential £10 ew 225/1 £10 280
Danie Van Tonder is the sole home player on my list and at the age of just 23 has achieved a lot. He was a top amateur and when he turned pro won 10 of the 18 events on his home IGT tour. He then finished 2nd in the SA Q School and has progressed nicely through the ranks earning his first two victories last year. What marks him out to me is his great consistency and he did finish 9th and 2nd in two co-sanctioned events early last year with similar fields £30 ew 66/1 6 places
Finally I am going to take a punt on Jordi Garcia Pinto at a simply massive price. Last year he was 2nd @ Sotogrande and won the St Omer Open on a parkland course. The year before he won north of here in the Kenya Open on another similar course. As a player who knows how to win and could well be playing on a course that suits he can't really be left out at this price £20 ew 350/1

january 6th 10.48
Time for the first preview of 2015 and we will kick off with the Hyundai Tournament of Champions where this year we have a decent sized field of 34 on the island of Maui. You can guaratee some will be up for it from day one whilst others will still be in holiday mode.
First pick for me at the early price was Kevin Streelman who did well on his debut last year to finish 3rd especially when you consider the fact that he had just become a Dad for the first time six days earlier but had to leave his baby girl in the ICU to play in Hawaii. Maybe that helped him feel focused and relaxed on the golf course but whatever the case he certainly performed well. Last year was very much hit and miss with only a second vctory on the PGA tour and a fast finishing 2nd at Summerlin to shout about. Players who do well at Summerlin have a good record here so that helped me make my mind up £40 ew 40/1
The Summerlin link brought me to my second pick in the shape of Ben Martin who won a shade cosily there for his first PGA tour victory. The talented youngster had already come close to victory with a 3rd at Congressional and interestingly he was also 3rd at Harbour Town and Puerto Rico. In interviews he said he is really comfortable playing near the coast in breezy conditions so this should be right up his street. If you can get on with Stan James then their 66/1 is too big - I had to settle for £30 65 on Betfair and £40 top 4 incl ties @ Sportingbet
Lastly I have had a £30 win only saver @ 18/1 on defending champion Zach Johnson - and the reason is straightforward when you check out the record of defending champions whose only victory the year before was this very event
01 Furyk 4th
04 Appleby 1st
05 Appleby 1st
08 Chopra 27th
09 Ogilvy 1st
11 Byrd 3rd
13 Stricker 2nd
january 3rd 14.01
Time for a bit of archiving for the New Year - the blog for 2014 can now be found on the left - so that's five complete years of spouting mostly drivel with the odd gem thrown in for good measure! Hope you all had a good Christmas and New Year and are ready to do battle with the enemy once more.
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