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July 16th 22.30
It's Open Championship week and you can read some of my thoughts about the event here
I have varying positions on golfers mentioned and as I have tweeted over the past few months some of those players have been backed at bigger odds. I have also backed HT Li though I am concerned that he was talking of an injury last week but played OK in the second round.
While the cats away the mice can play and the Barbasol event on the PGA tour really is one of the weakest fields of the year. Last year I picked out a player who has now become known affectionately as "Mr Monday" due to his Monday qualifying exploits and getting through sectional qualifying for the US Open. Chip McDaniel has managed a 5th place at the equally weak Domincan Republic event back at the end of March. He was a bit disappointing last year but with an extra year under his belt maybe he will perform well at Keene Trace where he opened 64/66 and went on to win the Kentucky Amateur by six shots in 2017 - probably worth a punt e/w at the 125/1

June 26th 11.34
I was going to have an article published for this weeks US Senior Open but unfortunately due to time constraints that didn’t quite happen – so as I had done the research I thought I may as well share a few thoughts and observations.
Akin to its PGA counterpart the Senior version is a nomadic event and this week pitches up at the Warren golf course, Notre Dame, South Bend Indiana – and for the first time the USGA hosts an event at a collegiate course. I don’t think the Coore/Crenshaw design will be a pushover and is certainly long enough at just shy of 7000 yards for a par 70. It is described as a links style course set in 250 acres of woodland so think Sunningdale rather than St Andrews – with less heather! What you do off the tee doesn’t seem to be key though long hitters will be advantaged due to the fact that the main defence of the course are the small, narrow well protected greens – think Pebble Beach.
My betting is usually price driven but occasionally a golfer comes up where I don’t necessarily think the price is standout and that applies to Marco Dawson this week. It’s been nearly four years since his last victory at the aforementioned Sunningdale in the Senior British Open and he has been in the doldrums for most of the time. This year however he has been 2nd and 4th twice on the Champions Tour mainly due to some impressive GIR stats. Over the last few months he has been hitting 80% of greens – much higher than anyone else in the field and a part of the game that should be key this week. A price tag of 45/1 is no gimme but I just have a feeling he will go well this week with conditions to suit.
In the last six Senior Majors the form of Paul Broadhurst reads 1/5/32/32/6/3 and to be honest he really should have won at least one of the last two. He has also won a Senior British Open and his first Champions Tour victory came at Pebble Beach and at 50/66 there is certainly a touch of value in his price.
Storylines often have a way of writing themselves and that certainly would be the case should local man and former PGA tour winner Chris Smith prevail this week. He is the only one in the field who has prior knowledge of the course – so what has he been up to of late? He only turned 50 in April and this is his first Senior Tour start, he tried to qualify for the tour at Q School last year but a poor 3rd round wrecked his chance. He qualified for this week by taking medallist honours at the Indiana qualifier last month. He has been preparing for this week by playing Indiana State senior events winning the last four straight by a combined 14 shots – not bad as these are only one or two round events. Admittedly that level of form is way short of this level of event but shows his game to be in good order. It will be a very emotional event for Smith as last week marked the ten year anniversary of losing his wife in a tragic car accident and there wouldn’t be a dry eye in the house were he to lift the trophy on Sunday. At 250/1 he is a real long shot and he maybe worth a bet @ 125/1 in the first round leader market as he is first off tomorrow.

June 12th 11.37
One of my favourite golf betting weeks of the year - always brings back fond memories of my two biggest weeks in 25 years of betting on golf though I never actually bagged the winner!
2008 - all my bets were in place, mainly lumping on Rocco Mediate - outright, outright without Woods, top US without Woods etc . I was off on holiday to the Isles of Scilly with no real internet connection. I maintained my Betfair positions by sitting in the Tourist Board Office paying for a connection on an ancient computer. At night all I could do was sit and watch the scores tick over on Ceefax and it painfully went to the fifth day. In the end Tiger beat Rocco on one leg and my winnings weren't as great but still well into five figures but also saw the closure of my first betting account - so long Paddy Power.
Four years on and again was on off on holiday - bets were in place - this time Michael Thompson who had played so well at the Olympic Club in the US Amateur, this time he strolled to an easy lead after round one and luckily I was able to manage Betfair positions on my phone as he eventually rallied to finish tied for second and another five figure win.
I guess the moral of the story is you don't always have to pick the winner to win big!
I have written a preview which you can read here
I really like the chances of Lowry and McDowell and have backed Hovland and Oppenheim in lots of different side markets and to trade on Betfair - maybe Hovland can emulate Michael Thompson with his amateur form although Thompson had turned pro by that point. Whatever happens I have a feeling it's going to be a cracker

april 22nd 11.07
A little look at the Irish Grand National
A few points to note – three of the last five winners were having their first run in a handicap, four of the last twelve winners had run in the National Hunt Chase @ Cheltenham. You have to go back to 1997 to find a winner aged older than ten. Horses at the lower end of the handicap do best – the last ten winners have been rated 139,153,137,136,142,128,135,132,131,136
The 153 was Our Duke and don't think there is something like him running this year
In the last 5 runnings  (looking at 6 place option) - only 6 runners rated 143+ finished in the top 6
This narrows down the field nicely for me and I like the look of Gun Digger running off 139 with just 10-3 on his back. He fell last time out in the NH Chase but was going as well as anything with a mile to go suggesting the trip shouldn’t be a problem. This is his first run in a handicap so he ticks both of those boxes.
Auvergnat – always happy to forgive one bad run, connections swerved the Grand National having been allocated a big weight compared to his Irish rating. He went for the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham but didn’t run well – it was found he had a bad cut to his leg. A runaway winner of the Paddy Power Chase at Christmas on good ground now rated 143 but O’Connor takes off 5lb to effectively run off 138. She isn’t a bad booking and has won a Ladies National round Fairyhouse.
Bellow Mome runs off the minimum 10 stone having just got into the race following a 3rd place to Pairofbrowneyes in the Leinster National. That was its second run back after a near two year break and is still pretty unexposed over long trips.
A small mention for Forever Gold at a big price but probably too old to win it now at 12 but could easily run into a place. Has been campaigned over hurdles this year possibly to protect his handicap mark but was 3rd last year and other course/distance finishes are 2/1/2

april 8th 21.00
Before you read this article my take is based on personal observations, I do believe the FOBT restrictions were needed as this country does have a gambling problem but what has failed to be addressed is the nature of a State sponsored gambling problem.
When Camelot was awarded the National Lottery franchise 25 years ago I think they pulled the cleverest marketing ploy I have ever seen – they advertised the lottery saying people should use their birthdays to pick numbers and from day one people were hooked. I have seen people check the results having not entered that week just to check if their “numbers” had come up, and a lot of  people have entered the same numbers for the past 25 years “just in case”.
We have seen the once a week lottery grow to so many weekly draws I have really lost count and they sell it with advertising saying you could win £100 million etc – to me that is only adding to the gambling problem in this country – preying on the vulnerable by advertising the chance of life changing winnings.
We also must remember that we have instant gratification with Scratchcards – I have seen the number which are usually on sale on shops – around 20 – I have just seen on the website there are a staggering 72 available online. These cards vary in price from £1 to £10 – but what is the difference to paying £2 on a FOBT machine – surely the instant gratification with both should merit the same restriction of £2?
This little article was sparked by seeing someone just spend £50 on Lottery tickets and Scratchcards at my local shop in one transaction. The reason we probably don’t hear about it is that the government gains 12p in every £1 spent on these “products” – now if that isn’t State sponsored gambling I don’t know what is!
march 19th 16.12
Thought I would repost what I wrote about the Grand National six weeks ago, Noble Endeavor finally got it's second run of the year in the Ultima and was given a very quiet ride which should leave him spot on for Aintree. I have carried on backing him (well another £50 win 60 on Betfair) and have added one more below
"When watching the Becher Chase in December I was intrigued to see how Noble Endeavor fared after a 600 day absence, was never really put in the race and it reminded me so much of Tiger Roll on its first look at the Cross Country fences at Cheltenham before it one at the Festival. Noble Endeavor seemed to take quite well to the National fences and I think Elliott has that race mapped out for him. Why mention it now - well he runs in the Irish Gold Cup tomorrow and if he runs a decent race his odds will be cut for the Aintree showpiece.
In 2017 he was 6th in the Irish National - staying on over the 3m 5f trip and had been 3rd in the Ultima at the Festival. Prior to that at Chritmas 2016 he won the Paddy Power Handicap Chase easily enough, and earlier in March he was still travelling well in the NH Chase at the Festival before coming to grief two out - his only career fall. 
Last year he was given 10 13 for the National but missed out as he hadn't recovered from his injury. Elliott thinks a lot of the horse and even tomorrow says he should run well enough despite having a lot to do at the ratings and he has even given the horse a Cheltenham Gold Cup entry. 
He is chalked up @ 100/1 for tomorrows race which seems way too big and I have had a small bet because I think April at Aintree is the main aim - antepost I have had £75 ew 50/1 and a further £50 win 55. My dream could be all over this time tomorrow but if he runs OK I will keep backing him."
The other horse I like is Pairofbrowneyes who had to finish in the first four the other week in the Leinster National in order to qualify (have to finish top four in a three mile chase these days) Mullins thought it was a bit daft as won last years Leinster National at Gowran in the mud over 100 yards short of three miles and he described that as like running four miles. Anyway the horse actually won the race pretty easily and has gone up 9 lb in the ratings so is effectively 9 lb well in. They have the choice to go for the Irish National again where it was favourite last year but fell but it will have to race off its new weight. I can see them taking the Aintree option and Mullins seems to have got the horse sussed as a staying chaser as before he trained it it was campaigned over much shorter trips. Managed to get £25 ew 40/1 and £70 win 45/1 on Betfair - think it will go off shorter but they all have the mighty Tiger to beat and I haven't had a bean on him this year!
march 16th 11.47
Cheltenham didn't quite go according to plan - two main bets for me were Atlanta Ablaze fell with every chance in the National Hunt Chase and Roman Road led them a merry dance in the Foxhunters but didn't quite last out the final two furlongs eventually getting pipped for a place. It happens but we move on...and today it's the Midlands National @ Uttoxeter where I am interested in one at a big price - Dawson City though I may have a saver on old Raz if she drifts enough!
Dawson City is a regular contender and seems to be "saved" for these regional Nationals and the odd big staying race - his record over the last few years is as follows
2/14 Somerset National
2/14 Sussex National
PU/30 Scottish National (unsuitable good ground?)
3/9 Somerset National
1/11 Devon National
6/20 B365 Gold Cup
5/16 Scottish Borders National
7/20 Welsh National
1/15 Devon National
That's a pretty impressive and consistent run of form although he has to defy a record high rating today and he does often get tapped for toe but maybe they won't go hell for leather over an extended four miles in soft ground. Most books are around the 20/1 mark with 5 places but 7 places with Hills certainly makes huge appeal

february 18th 09.52
Cheltenham National Hunt Chase 5.30 Tuesday
A race that has been kind to me over the last couple of years with Tiger Roll winning in 2017 and Ms Parfois just getting touched off last year. Whilst I am not one to avidly stick to trends I use them as a guide to whittle down numbers and get to a shortlist and this has become quite a “trendy” race.
Rating – must have an official rating of at least 143
Experience – the last 4 winners have had 10.10,4 10 chase runs to their name
Age – 9 of the last 13 winners aged 7 or 8
It is interesting that the three favourites have limited experience over fences – OK Corral just two starts – won both but only three rivals in each and Henderson has never won this. Ballyward has also just the two chase runs under his belt with a first and second whilst Discorama has only had the three. To my mind with that lack of experience and having to jump 25 fences I would rather look further down the list.
The one that really catches my eye is Atlanta Ablaze – was told a few weeks back on Twitter it wouldn’t be running at Cheltenham but they seem to have had a change of heart. A bit like Ms Parfois last year she enters the fray having won two Listed mares chases and gets the valuable 7lb mares allowance. Over a distance of four miles that 7lb could prove invaluable and in effect puts her on a mark of 150 – and therefore the second highest rating in the field.
Atlanta Ablaze is aged 8 and has 10 chase runs to her name so fits the trends profile rather well and has won over 3 miles and 3 miles 1 furlong, whether she stays 4 miles we have to take on trust but the same can be said about most of the runners.
Connections have managed to secure the services of top point to point jockey William Biddick which is also a plus – over the last three years he has been 5th, 4th and then 2nd last year on Ms Parfois.
With question marks over the favourites I think she rates great value 20/1 EW NRNB and think she will go off a lot shorter.
Bet365 offer best place terms 1/4 3 rather than 1/5 3

february 18th 09.52
It may seem a bit bizarre but count this as a sort of resignation letter to myself – I will be giving up tipping on outright pre-tournament golf events from this week.
What I was once good at it seems I no longer am, things change – it happens, I now make my money from betting in running on the golf. To be honest I am bored with being sat here Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday scrabbling for prices that are sometimes impossible to get on – it’s a waste of my time and frankly yours too dear reader. I have also found it has been having a detrimental effect on my health and wellbeing, which is not good.
I find it impossible to tip in running as it is not fair on most people who won’t get on so I will limit myself to suggestions on Twitter, that will be it. If I do really fancy something pre-tournament then there may well be a blog post or two – probably Champions Tour, and only if I really fancy writing.
The blog will be more likely reserved for antepost bets of mine which could involve other things like National Hunt racing – we have Cheltenham and Aintree just round the corner for instance.
Anyway – thanks for listening to my drivel, I am sure there will be more in the future and keep an eye on Twitter for any random thoughts that maybe of interest to you.
All the best

february 14th 10.15
Lecom Suncaost Classic
Danny Walker
25 points ew 175/1
Apologies for being rather tardy with this rather short write up on the weeks only bet. It’s a new event and a new course and a time when I usually keep the powder dry but I had to throw one player into the mix which clearly caused a little controversy on Twitter. The course at Lakeland Ranch is next to where Walker grew up and played throughout High School – the question is how much weight to give that factor. If a player is simply affiliated to a club I give it no weight at all but when we are using a course for the first time then there has to be some advantage. The unknown fact is whether or not the player actually likes the course and whether he can play it under tournament conditions and how he can deal with the pressure of playing at home.
One thing I know is that Walker is probably capable of winning at this level, in his first season on a pro tour in Canada last year he won the final event of the season which got him a free pass into the Q School which he went on to win. It’s been an indifferent start to his career however – missing his last three cuts but maybe he just hasn’t adjusted to the travel involved and anyways his win in Canada came on the back of two missed cuts. I guess time will tell very quickly!

february 13th 14.16
Genesis Open
It really is a top quality field – probably the best of the year so far and to be honest I can’t see the winner coming from out of the top dozen in the field. The event is usually won by a player out of the top drawer with great Major credentials and if I had to pick one who even at just 25/1 may present a touch of value it would have to be Xander Schauffele. If you look at his form he is a peak performer in big events despite a short career, 1st in a Tour Championship and Tournament of Champions, 1st in the WGC HSBC Championship, 2nd in last years Open and a 5th and 6th in the US Open is a pretty impressive CV. He is a player who seems to also improve his performance at courses he has played before take this year so far
T of C 22/1
Torrey Pines c/c/c/25
Scottsdale 17/10
So turning up to a course he was 9th on his debut last year improving with every round you’d have to give him a squeak. But as I said there isn’t a lot of value in the price though he is my idea of the winner. Instead I will just have one First Round Leader bet

Sam Saunders
15 points ew 150/1

There’s no great rocket science behind the bet just the fact that he has teed it up just twice here – in 2017 he opened with a 64 to take a two shot lead and last year a 67 saw him lie tied 3rd one shot back. Enthusiasm is slightly tempered by a late tee time although he is out in the second group of the afternoon wave and pretty poor weather is forecast all day
february 13th 12.26
Dimension Data Pro Am
Thriston Lawrence
30 points ew 100/1 (80/1 fine)
Lawrence has always been hailed as a great South African prospect who maybe turned pro too early at the age of 19 in 2015 but now finally seems to be fulfilling his potential. He won the Lytham Trophy in 2014 and a whole host of amateur events at home in South Africa and on turning pro played on the Mena Tour winning the Order of Merit in 2015. But things rather stagnated from there. At the end of last year he finally won on the Big Easy tour and whilst he missed the cut in the two co-sanctioned events before Christmas he has come into his own this year. He warmed up at the end of January with a play off loss on the IGT tour and then finished 4th and 8th is the PGA Championship and Cape Town Open – both events he had played poorly in before. Whether this is his week I have to take a chance – two previous missed cuts in the event don’t bode well but he is in much better form this time around and will have some good memories of the course where he won an amateur event back in 2013

february 13th 11.59
ISPS Handa World Super 6

An event I am really struggling to get a handle on – is it best to play in the 54 hole strokeplay event or to win overall when it goes into a matchplay situation on the last day? The fact that it is played mainly overnight for me means I have decided to more or less sit it out. The two young Scots Forrest and Johnston interest me as they finished 1st and 2nd in the Challenge Tour event last year that follows a similar formula only with a 36 hole strokeplay format and I can see them being inspired by Laws’ victory last week. Forrest has the advantage of making the playoffs here last year but has a late tee time when the wind may get up but I find it odd that I can back him 180 on Betfair for the 54 hole portion when he is half that price to win overall! So no official tips on the outright but the one I really fancy for First Round Leader is
James Nitties
20 points ew 150/1

Nitties made headlines last week by making nine birdies in a row and equalling the world record in competition. That meant he led after round one on his course rotation although Flannagan who is his room mate and long time buddy managed to shoot ten under on the other course. In round one in Perth the two friends are paired together out early which could inspire more fireworks. I have sided with Nitties who says this is his favourite event of the year – he lost in the final last year and was 2nd after round one and if you go back to 2013 when it was a 72 hole event he co-led on day one

february 6th 21.41
Panama Championship
Ryan Yip

25 points ew 80/1 (66/1 fine)
Must admit I have wanted to tip Yip for many years – what a great name for a golfer – yet this is probably the first time I think he actually warrants a bet. He certainly hasn’t been a big achiever on tour with a win in Canada 10 years ago the only one to his name but he’s in good form this season with an 11th in the second Bahamas event followed by an 8th in Colombia. Last year he went 10th in the Bahamas followed by 5th here in Panama. The Bogota event came after Panama last year and he missed the cut – that was the second year in a row he had missed the cut in Bogota so the 8th was a huge improvement

Brett Coletta
20 points ew 125/1 (100/110 fine) I used Mustardbet 150/25
Coletta was one of those players I noted who was the wrong side of the cut in the Bahamas a couple weeks back though I admit that line backfired last week. He didn’t take the flight to Colombia so maybe a bit fresher than some others this week. If you really want a long read about his career so far then this is well worth a look and it’s something that made me think of his suitability to the Panama course this week. Basically he says he is suited to tougher courses rather than the birdie fests and this weeks event is just about the toughest test on the tour.

february 6th 17.32
Oasis Championship

Quite a few debutants tee it up in Florida this week and I have tipped two of them – it would have been three but the 33/1 on Goosen disappeared rather rapidly when Skybet chalked up 11/1!! I have tended to find that the less well known players do best when starting out on this tour – Rocco Mediate did win this event on his tour debut in 2013 at around the 50/1 mark so we have a precedent.

Paul Broadhurst
30 points ew 70/1 (66/1 fine)
Not a debutant but a player who seems to be constantly underestimated on this tour – it’s just a case of catching him right. He won on his European Senior debut in 2015 on the links in Scotland and the following year won the Senior British Open at Carnoustie before claiming his first Champions Tour event @ Pebble Beach. In 2017 he drew a blank on this tour but won twice in Europe whilst last year he captured two Champions Tour events including a Major. He does seem best on “linksy” style courses but he has been 10th and 4th here in two starts so clearly likes the venue.

Ken Duke
25 points ew 70/1
The first debutant in the staking plan – have always thought Duke was a late developer who didn’t win on the PGA tour til he was 44 and was 3rd at Sawgrass when he was 47 so seems the type of player who could thrive on the Champions Tour. He is from Florida so should be well suited to the conditions – will have to take on trust that the course suits him.

Cliff Kresge
20 points ew 150/1
Debutant number two and certainly not in the same league as Goosen or Duke as he was without a win on the PGA tour, however he does have three wins under his belt. He was brought up in Florida and his best ever finish on the PGA tour came when 3rd @ Bay Hill, he was 2nd at the Q School to get his card – also held in Florida

Ken Tanigawa
10 points ew 125/1 (100/1 fine)
I will have a small bet on last seasons rookie of the year which he gained via a win and a 3rd. This was the scene of his Champions tour debut when he finished a highly creditable 10th so with positive memories he is worth a small investment at a three figure price

february 6th 11.43
Victoria Open
Matthew Millar

25 points win 70/1
40 points top 5 11/1 (10/1 fine - some books now top 5 & ties - well worth it!)
20 points top 5 13/1
To say Matthew Millar is not a prolific winner considering how often he gets into contention would be an understatement – in fact it took him 15 years to record his first victory in a mainstream event and another three years to add his second, both victories coming early in the year in New Zealand.
He is very comfortable at home in Australia and if you look at his 52 starts on the Australasian Tour since 2015 he boasts a staggering 35% top 5 strike rate and 54% top 10!!
Admittedly a lot of those high finishes came in run of the mill tour events with no International players but before Christmas he was 5th and 3rd in the two flagship events the Open and PGA tournaments.
He has an unusual record in the Victorian Open played on the 13th Beach courses – 6th and 2nd and three missed cuts though I may forgive him the last one as it was the event after he secured his second pro win.
His price has drifted on Betfair on the place side and I have just added another 20 points @ 13/1, it may also be worth looking at his 25/1 price for top Australian – though don’t use Ladbrokes/Coral as remarkably they have Ryan Fox as a dual national quoting him in both the top Australian and top New Zealand market!!!

february 4th 17.47
AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am
Kevin Kisner

30 points ew 80/1 1/5 7 - get as many places as possible
First rule of betting in this pro-am is stick to the Americans – played since 1947 focused around Pebble Beach and surrounding courses there have only been three international winners in 65, 93 and 04. Despite the fact there have been many multiple winners a previous high finish here has not been imperative and we have had numerous big price winners including a few unfathomable ones.
I have had a couple of winners here in the shape of Oberholser and a big win on Points in 2011 @ 100/1. Points had missed three cuts and had a 14th to his name but had good form in the Pebble Beach Invitational played in November each year, but he was playing the year he won with his comic idol Bill Murray which relaxed him – it wouldn’t most people!!
Kisner is a bit like Points – 39th on his debut but four missed cuts and a 10th in 2017 but he did win the PBI in 2013 – an event normally assigned to those on the Champions Tour these days.
In theory the courses should suit when you look at some of his best venues
Sea Island 26/c/20/4/1/c/4/7
Harbour Town c/38/2/69/11/7
Plus he has had a couple of top 5’s in the Sony Open, add in the fact that books seem to have forgotten he was 2nd at Carnoustie last year and he seems a decent price.
I guess that boils down to current form – a slow start to the year – 69/57/26 but he’s on an upward trajectory and the 26th in Phoenix was his best ever showing there.
With some iffy weather forecast and not knowing how that will affect the course rotation I will leave it at that before the off.
february 2nd 17.47
When watching the Becher Chase in December I was intrigued to see how Noble Endeavor fared after a 600 day absence, was never really put in the race and it reminded me so much of Tiger Roll on its first look at the Cross Country fences at Cheltenham before it one at the Festival. Noble Endeavor seemed to take quite well to the National fences and I think Elliott has that race mapped out for him. Why mention it now - well he runs in the Irish Gold Cup tomorrow and if he runs a decent race his odds will be cut for the Aintree showpiece.
In 2017 he was 6th in the Irish National - staying on over the 3m 5f trip and had been 3rd in the Ultima at the Festival. Prior to that at Chritmas 2016 he won the Paddy Power Handicap Chase easily enough, and earlier in March he was still travelling well in the NH Chase at the Festival before coming to grief two out - his only career fall.
Last year he was given 10 13 for the National but missed out as he hadn't recovered from his injury. Elliott thinks a lot of the horse and even tomorrow says he should run well enough despite having a lot to do at the ratings and he has even given the horse a Cheltenham Gold Cup entry.
He is chalked up @ 100/1 for tomorrows race which seems way too big and I have had a small bet because I think April at Aintree is the main aim - antepost I have had £75 ew 50/1 and a further £50 win 55. My dream could be all over this time tomorrow but if he runs OK I will keep backing him.

january 30th 12.27
Bogota Championship

A couple of things to note – they are using a new course over the first two days with split fields so that dilutes course form a little but past course form has never really been a pre-requisite here before as winners have little common traits. In the early days it favoured the wily old pro’s but it seems more random these days with winners never having won on this tour before. I noted in the last event in the Bahamas those out early/late were at a massive disadvantage – maybe as much as 3-4 shots so current form may be a little skewed.

Harry Higgs
40 points ew 40/1
Higgs is best mates with Dechambeau but obviously isn’t in the same league but he clearly has potential judging on him leading the Latino Tour money list last year. To be fair he only just go there – he birdied the last hole in the last event and won by $64! That runoff 10/1/2/3/4 obviously piqued my interest this week as the first four events in that run came in South America and mainly at altitude. He threw away the chance to win in Chile but bounced straight back with the win with Dechambeau constantly texting him encouragement. He was one of the players who fell foul of a poor draw in the Bahamas so 17th wasn’t bad – if he can build on that and take further encouragement from his friends achievements then a win on this tour is highly likely.

Steven Alker
40 points ew 40/1
The veteran Kiwi also was one out early and joined Higgs in 17th – add that to his 4th the week before and he is clearly in good heart at the start of the year. His last two starts here have yielded finishes of 6th and 29th and he has won @ altitude in Utah before

Roberto Diaz
40 points ew 50/1
Now we come to a man who drops down to this Tour after a poor start for him having regained his PGA tour card for the year at the finals. A pick solely on the back of some very impressive course form 6/7/2 and he was unlucky not to win in 2017 when Tracy holed out for eagle on the 72nd hole and then beat Diaz in the playoff!! Yet to win on this tour he could take inspiration from Campos – same age/region of origin who finally came good in the Bahamas

Wade Binfield
15 pts ew 125/1
Just a small token bet on the man who faired best of all when 9th in the Bahamas from that poor draw. He had a lot of pressure on him with no status on tour and playing on a sponsors invite so he handled it well and is given another crack at things this week. He hasn’t achieved a great deal in his career to date and now aged 32 he won’t maybe get a lot more opportunities – he has to make this week count.

january 30th 11.17
Phoenix Open

Daniel Berger
40 points ew 66/1
Another one of those glad we got in early as odds have been trimmed a lot – for anyone who reads this and misses prices – bets are always posted on Twitter first!
Berger took a really long break over the autumn/winter after a rather indifferent season but returned to action with a 12th place in the Desert Classic – not bad after four and a half months off. He missed the cut last week @ Torrey Pines but that doesn’t concern me too much as he now returns to putting on overseeded Bermuda where he has great form especially in this event. He first appeared here in 2015 on a sponsors exemption and finished 10th, he showed that was no fluke when 7th and 11th the last two years. The whole event is a bit like a circus and you need a player who enjoys it and Berger ticks that box saying he will come back every year. With one of the lowest course scoring averages on show if he can put four rounds together he will be bang in contention come Sunday.

Talor Gooch
25 points ew 100/1 1/5 7 or 8 if you can
15 points ew 66/1 top American (takes out Rahm and Matsuyama)
Not that long ago I put up Gooch for the Sony at 1000/1 – after he had shot low in the Monday Qualifier – well he won’t have to Monday qualify again for a while! He missed the cut sadly at the Sony – found out he played the wrong ball and got a two shot penalty but that seems to have spurred him on. A 4th in the Desert Classic and 3rd last week means he won’t lack from tournament starts having started the season with conditional status. He proved in 2017 on the tour he can keep a hot streak going when he went 11/10/2/1  and on the Canadian Tour in 2015 rode a streak of 11/6/4/27/3 so I don’t see why he can’t carry on this week. The downside is it’s his course debut but I know he spent a few weeks in Scottsdale over the winter to put in some practice.
I was lucky enough to nab the 250/500 when he was originally added on Betfair but 100/1 more than fair and I added the top American bet as Rahm and Matsuyama have to be feared

january 23rd 14.34
Dubai Desert Classic

Jordan Smith
40 points ew 66/1 1/5 6
Well Smith has been hammered in price so glad I went up early with the 66/1 which was freely available on Monday. A lot has been written about him but my main reasons for backing him this week are as follows. His desert golf credentials are actually pretty good, in 2016 on the Challenge Tour he actually won twice – firstly in Egypt on a water strewn desert course and then at Al Hamra in the UAE. In his first season on tour he went 39/6/23 with the latter finish here but we can write off last years desert swing when he was suffering from glandular fever. There was further evidence in the DP World Tour Championship in November where he was one shot behind going into the final round before a poor finish dropped him to 12th. After getting engaged in December he spent a lot of time in Dubai during the break honing his game and played well for 11th last week in Abu Dhabi after a slow start.

Jason Scrivener
20 points ew 66/1 First Round Leader
A man whose price outright always seems a bit low as he only has one professional win in a poor quality field at home in Australia to his name. He is definitely a horses for courses player and was 6th here in his second attempt last year. One thing I have noticed is that he is often a very fast starter to events – in his last six events last year he was t1st,3rd, 5th and 5th after the opening days play. He was solid last week in Abu Dhabi in 16th which included a second round 65 the lowest on the day

Thomas Aiken
10 points top 5 66/1 Mustardbet (50/1 fine)
30 points top 10 28/1 Betfair, 25/1 Mustardbet
I have added Aiken as a play in the place markets though I wouldn’t put you off a small bet @ 680 on the exchange for the win. He does struggle to get over the line but he has a very good top 5/10 strike rate of 10% and 16% in European Tour events down the years. Best results last year were 2nd Nordea Masters, 3rd South African Open and 10th in the higher class Turkish Airlines. As he has a brace of top ten finishes here on the Emirates course the price just seems too big to me.

january 23rd 11.46
Farmers Insurance

Harris English
20 points ew 125/1 1/5 7
I think I am safe in saying that Harris English really hasn’t kicked on his career as many had expected – a 1st, 2nd and 3rd on the tour in just seven starts in 2011 led to a place on the PGA tour where he won twice in his second year – 2013. Quite simply it just hasn’t panned out as expected however there is one venue he has always performed well and that’s here at Torrey Pines even if he enters in poor form. Since those early wins he has finished 2/31/14/8 and after a couple of cuts made to start the season he could be ready to perform well again @ a course he likes. He maybe also be worth siding with in the top US market as this takes out the likes of Rahm, Rory, Day, Rose, Leishman and Noren who are all at the top of the betting

CT Pan
40 points win 150/1 Betfair
30 points top 5 20/1
The hugely talented young Taiwanese player will win on the PGA tour – it’s just a matter of time in my opinion, and for one so young he is incredibly consistent. If that first win were to come here it would come as no surprise. On his debut in 2017 he fought all the way to the line eventually settling for 2nd. Last year he finished 35th but was sitting in 5th with a round to go – I am happy to forgive a round of 79 around the South course as all his others have been good. A finish of 50th last week may not look that impressive but in each of the last two years he had missed the cut before playing well here. I will admit that some of the 150/1 will be used for hedging if he gets close as he is still yet to close the deal

Michael Thompson
40 points win 350 Betfair (nearly that Mustard)
15 points top 5 40/1
20 points top 10 20/1
15 points ew top US 100/1 (1/4 5 BF/PP) 110 B365, 125 Blacktype
I gave up backing Thompson a while back as like English he really hasn’t kicked on as expected. In three of the last four years he has had to go to the playoffs to regain his playing privileges on the main tour but the fact that he has achieved it each time shows he is a gritty player. His form around Torrey Pines is pretty indifferent with five of seven cuts made and best finishes of 11th and 14th but the place holds fond memories for him as he was low amateur way back in 2008 at the US Open. I have always thought a tough test suits him when his game is on – 2nd at the US Open @ Merion in 2012 proves that and his one PGA tour win came at the tough PGA National. Why should he contend this week? Well the 9th last week (poor final round) was his best finish in a while and he was 5th in the all round stats which means his whole game is in decent nick which he will need this week.

january 19th 17.55 Bahamas Great Abaco Classic

Ben Taylor
20 points ew 150/1
(125/1 fine)
The young Englishman won on Tour early last year in Colombia but then didn’t really perform very well for the rest of the year but judging from his effort last week in the Bahamas then maybe he still has a lot to offer. In 2017/2018 he missed the cut both times @ Emerald Bay with rounds of 85/81/69/77 – admittedly it played easier last week but with all rounds at par or better he finished 20th. His form in the last two years here has been much better going 27/19 and last year he fired a 65 and a 66 and then won a few weeks later. It is worth noting the year before his win in Bogota he fired a closing round of 65 and there seems to be a pattern emerging with his form of finishing higher each time he plays a course again.

Kevin Dougherty
20 points ew 100/1
(80/1 fine) 100 available Betfair/Paddy Power not showing on Oddschecker
I am going to take a chance on Dougherty this week despite a slight reservation about him not teeing it up in the first event last week. He had a solid first season on tour with a 2nd, 4th, 6th,6th and 7th and came agonisingly close to gaining a berth on the PGA Tour when he needed birdie on the final hole of the final regular season event to clinch 25th spot – his chip came up one inch short! The 4th place mentioned above came here so he can definitely play the course so a three figure price is too big to resist.

january 16th 12.20
Singapore Open

A co-sanctioned Asian/Japanese Tour event which has up for offer four places in the Open for any player finishing in the top 12 not already exempt. It has attracted a few star names as normal with Garcia, Casey and Fitzpatrick teeing it up and to be honest I couldn’t put you off any of them but it does mean we get some interesting e/w prices further down the field.
Tirawat  Kaewsiribandit
20 points ew 225/1 – 1/5 6 Betfair or Paddy, ¼ 5 Bet365

William Hill were 250/1 but strangely have taken the market down, if you have a Unibet/888 account then you can avail yourselves of a staggering 500/1 but I would feel a bit of a fraud proofing at that price!
The 29 year old Thai has played here in each of the last two years finishing 11th and 27th but the results need further inspection.
In 2017 he only got into the field on the actual day as he was an alternate so didn’t have a lot of time to prepare. He improved through each of the first three rounds 70/69/66 and was tied 2nd one shot behind before struggling on the final day dropping down to 11th. He used that experience to good effect capturing his maiden ADT title later that year.
Last year he did the opposite, only getting in the field after finishing 7th at Q School he opened with a 66 to co-lead and was 3rd at the cut one shot behind and then faded to 27th. Again he put that experience to good use – finally capturing his maiden Asian Tour title in October and winning the following week in a minor event at home in Thailand.
As a winner now on the Asian Tour he could use the experience gained on this course to finally put all four rounds together, it’s just a shame no book quotes without the big three. I couldn’t put anyone off a FRL bet if you can get on with one of the few books up and I just spotted Mustardbet are now up @ 500/1 win only – max stake £1  - but I had it ten times!!

january 15th 17.10
The European Tour returns this week with the Abu Dhabi Championship which has been upgraded to a Rolex Series event and hence attracted a very strong field – my brief thoughts on my three picks – don’t forget it starts in a little over ten hours

Joost Luiten
30 points ew 80/1 1/5 6
On scrolling through the prices the first player I stopped at was Luiten – he is usually a lot shorter on tracks he has a good record on. Abu Dhabi is one of them having finished 6/6/5 in his seven starts – hence why I wanted the six place option! His wrist injury last year is well documented and he played consistently well when he returned in the Autumn and will be champing at the bit to get going this year. He is already a six time winner on tour with his last victory coming just over a year ago in the desert in Oman

Marcus Kinhult
30 points ew top Continental Euro 40/1 (33/1 OK)
40 points win 170+ Betfair

The young Swede had a great year in his first full season on tour not missing a cut after July and bagging three top 5 finishes. The first of those came at Doha when 3rd in Qatar a desert course also designed by Harradine, in 2016 he was also 4th on the Challenge Tour at the Harradine designed Al Hamra course. He was then 5th at Le Golf National in a top class field trading at odds on at one point – it is worth noting that Fleetwood, Kaymer and Larrazabal have both won there and here. His final top finish came in Portugal where he touched 9/2 in running before finishing 4th. My problem is that he has yet to secure a win at any level hence playing him in the market I have and also hopefully trading in running

Robert Macintyre
40 points top 20 – I took 12/1 ties included with Betfred 14/1 available
10 points ew FRL 200/1

Final pick is left field and in a top heavy market a top 20 finish seems the best way to go – admittedly I have backed him @ 1000 on Betfair and the Sportsbook there are a very generous 450/1 ew without the top 5 if you can get on. He graduated from the Challenge Tour and his start hasn’t gone unnoticed – he was 12th heading into the final round on his first start in Hong Kong and was 15th in both his starts in South Africa. He is a big talent who reached number 6 in the World amateur rankings and is possibly best known for whooping Cameron Champ in the Walker Cup singles – not a bad effort!
I like him this week as he has shown an affinity for golf in the desert – first two pro starts last year on the lowly Mena Tour saw him finish 3rd and 1st in Jordan and Kuwait and he was also 6th @ Al Hamra which I have mentioned above.

january 15th 13.01
Last week was frustrating as Howell finished a shot out the places (yet again shows how important getting extra places is) and am still kicking myself – if I backed Howell should have backed Kuchar but not point dwelling on it. Potter traded below 30 – not bad for a 300 shot but two poor putting holes cost him a place – a 3 putt from 6 feet for double and a four putt from 13 feet for triple!
I am still waiting to bet on one more player in Abu Dhabi so will write up my thoughts on Desert Classic first as Landry will be my only bet.
Andrew Landry
30 points ew 100/1 1/5 7 or 8 if possible

When prices first came out I thought 66/1 was about right – 125/1 seemed crazy and 100/1 more than fair. The price is obviously based on an average start in Maui and a missed cut at the Sony but as far as I am concerned he needed those starts as he has done in previous seasons
2015 – – 34/mc then won third start Colombia
2016 – first try on PGA tour – poor
2017 – – mc then won second start Bahamas
2018 – PGA – mc then 2nd here – lost to Rahm in playoff – hit ½ in running during that playoff
It took him a while to shake off that playoff loss missing his next four cuts before coming good and winning his first PGA tour event in Texas.
He likes the courses on show here – surprised to hear him say last year La Quinta was his favourite course on tour – each to their own!
Personally I think he’s a cracking price this week

january 12th 13.26
With a bit of luck Ted Potter can keep his good run going at the Sony Open over the next few days – as I said in my review I said I was going to lay some of Betfair stakes back earlier and not wait for the big win (2018 review). As I alluded to in this weeks preview I had placed a lot more on him than the staking so did give some back @ 30 last night which I didn’t think I would be able to after a three putt double bogey from six feet on the first! Live golf continues every day through January with the scheduling meaning we start the new year in the Bahamas tomorrow and again next week. My initial thoughts were to back Gellerman – he did us a favour in the Q School when 3rd but he was 150/1 that week and in a full field this week he is 66/1 though if you have a Mustardbet account he is 100/1+. His best finish on this tour is 8th which was here in 2017 but he is still winless on any main pro tour so he would have to be 100/1 to warrant a bet in my eyes. Instead I will go for a player who has the best course form in this weeks field and who is a decent price
Dan McCarthy
30 points ew 80/1
He was 4th on his debut here in 2017 in a wind ravaged event but shortly afterwards injured his wrist and was out for five months and never really regained his form. Last year he again showed a liking for the course – leading at the cut but one poor round led him to finishing 21st – I am always willing to forgive one poor round out of eight. In his second full season on this tour in 2018 he had a 5th and two 6th placed finishes and I think he will kick on this year. It took him a few years to click on the Canadian Tour but in 2016 he won no less than four times to prove he has the talent to win at this level.

january 9th 11.51
I should start by saying apologies for the number of picks and the essay that is about to follow but this is an event that has been good to me in the past with two 100/1 + winners and last year I backed Hahn 250/1 who eventually lost after a six hole playoff, it therefore makes sense to have a crack at the books! There is a very clear pattern emerging about recent winners which I am sure you have all read – 14 of the last 20 winners had dusted off their clubs at Maui the week before – on closer inspection 7 of the last 8 had and there could well be an explanation for the one that didn’t. In 2013 Henley won but those who were in Hawaii the week before struggled as they had to play 36 holes on the Monday and then 18 on the Tuesday before flying on to this weeks venue and most of them had to play the pro-am on the Wednesday! Henley became the first debutant to win as well which broke the mould – whilst a top finish isn’t important course experience is as it’s a strategic layout. You also need to look for a player who already has a PGA tour victory to his name – it’s not a good place for first time winners.
Charles Howell
25 points ew 40/1 1/5 7

First on the list this week had to be Howell at a price bigger than I expected and he has duly been hammered though I wouldn’t be in a hurry to take the 28/1 now. He finally broke through again at Sea Island for his third PGA tour win in November after a very long wait and it is here where he has come so close in the past to winning. His history here at Waialae is well documented with no fewer than seven top five finishes and having shaken off the rust last week improving as the week went on he stakes a very obvious claim this week.
Scott Piercy
40 points ew 50/1 1/7

Second man in is Piercy who like Howell improved as the rounds progressed in Maui last week. He finally returned to the winners enclosure last year in the pairs event alongside Horschell in Louisiana but didn’t find much form until the Fall going 5/10/6 in his last three events. Maybe turning 40 in November was the seed to that upturn in form. He loves it here at Waialae and has gone on record as saying it’s his favourite event of the year though he has only once had a really top finish when runner-up in 2015. He has shot some really low rounds on other occasions including in 2013 when he opened 64/64 but ran out of steam – as alluded to above he had to play 36 Monday then 18 Tuesday before a 7.13 am pro-am on the Wednesday
Brice Garnett
30 points ew 125/1 1/5 7 places

I guess this one needs a bit more explaining with course form of 38/c/c but that hasn’t stopped past winners and now he has a PGA tour victory under his belt I think he should go well on a course that should suit. Until his victory in the Dominican Republic (on a coastal seaside track) his best form at this level had been on another similar track with great course correlation to this weeks venue – Mayakoba. He had been 6th and 7th there before and added a 5th back in the Fall. He started slowly last week but a bogey free five under final round in calmer conditions means he faces this weeks course without the rust of past years. If you can bet with Betfair Sportsbook the 110/1 without the five favourites is well worth a look
Ted Potter
30 points win 300/1
20 points top 5 40/1

Now the totally left field pick – I know it seems odd to have more on the win than the place but Potter only has two top five finishes on the PGA tour and both of those were wins! I must admit I have had a lot more on the win price than I have stated above. Again he is a player whose course form does not inspire confidence but is amazingly similar to Johnson Wagner – he went 34/c/c/c before his victory and hasn’t made the weekend since! The similarities don’t end there – Wagner had two PGA tour victories and warmed up in Maui, Potter also has a brace of victories and has form here that reads 13/c/c/c. That 13th place finish was on his PGA tour debut and I have known quite a few players come back and record victories on a course they first debuted on. Now this is where it gets interesting – at least in my mind! This weeks course designer is Seth Raynor – he is also responsible for two other courses used on tour – The Old White where Potter earned his first victory (has also been 6th on his defence) and Monterrey used in the AT&T rotation. Potter won that event last year mainly due to a third round nine under par 62 – and guess which course he fired that on – yup you guessed it Monterrey!
Pat Perez
40 points win 100/1
40 points top 5 16/1

The generally available 66/1 about Perez did not inspire me but a three figure price whetted my appetite enough to have a decent bet. He didn’t win last year so hasn’t had the necessary warm up but in each of the last two years he has come out guns blazing in Hawaii in the Tournament of Champions finishing 3rd and 4th so contention rust doesn’t seem to worry him. Both those appearances came courtesy of late season wins – notably at Mayakoba in 2016 and he won’t be the first to win there and here. He didn’t do a lot for the rest of last year but again had a strong finish to his year with 7th and then 6th again at Mayakoba. He has plenty of decent finishes here – best being 4/8/9/10 and am surprised he is such a big price.
Talor Gooch
10 points ew FRL 150/1 – 125/1 fine

Last bet of the week is a little frustrating as not all books price him up as he got in the field via the Monday qualifier. He was co-medalist firing eight birdies and two bogeys for -6. He clearly likes Hawaii in January as last year he teed it up here opening 64/66 to sit 3rd after round one and 2nd at the cut before fading to 18th over the weekend. I have had a small investment at the maximum 1000 on Betfair and I do like the top 20 price on there of 25/1 (bookie best is 10/1) – in 29 events in his rookie year he posted four top 20 finishes – the odds are too high.
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january 6th 13.36
I started writing this article back in December after the golf had finished but realised I needed a complete break – eleven months, seven days a week with only two one week breaks sat by a pool in Greece had taken its toll – my brain was cooked. I noticed this as I made a few errors in the last month – two mistakes in my write-ups and one omission. I had written down that Gellerman had got engaged the weekend prior to the Q School but forgot about it and didn’t factor it into my staking!
So after a nice relaxing break it’s time to look back – where did it go wrong? My eighteenth year of betting on golf (not as a hobby) and only the second year I had recorded a loss – the tips don’t tell the whole story but 13570 points staked for a loss of 2590 does not make good reading. The tips don’t tell the whole story as I bet on Betfair and trade but even that wasn’t great apart from backing Hahn at the Sony Open @ 250 (hit ¼ in the playoff) and McEvoy when he won @ around the 180 mark. I even layed far too much of that back – it’s what you do when confidence is low. To sum it up I didn’t back enough winners – well hardly any to be frank – and the places got diluted by lots of ties, plus lots of 6ths and 7ths when extra places were available but unattainable by me at certain books. I have learnt that with so many ties possible First Round Leader bets should only be struck on players who are 100/1 or bigger.
The Champions Tour again was a happy hunting ground with a modest 1395 points staked returning a profit of 3585. It makes sense as apart from Senior Major weeks there are only roughly 90 players and you can rule out over half yet we still get paid five places. Therefore I will look to increase stakes on that tour this year.
Do I want to change much? Not really – apart from the two things I have mentioned on FRL and the Champions Tour, maybe take out stakes on my Betfair bets at a more realistic price too rather than trying harder to cop the big payout. It is a marathon not a sprint and backing at big odds there will be gaps between decent returns .
My saving grace last year was National Hunt racing – starting off with Raz de Maree winning the Welsh National @ 25/1 though a bit of that went west in the Grand National. Yet again it was all about Tiger Roll (the horse has won me well into five figures over the last few years) – having seen him in December in a handicap over the Cross Country course it was obvious to me that Elliott had in mind a third win at the Cheltenham Festival and I backed it consistently for the next three months from 25/1 down to 8/1 and he won with considerable ease. I re-invested some in the Grand National where I did honestly have doubts of it winning in handicap company as it always seems best off level weights. As for this year no doubt Tiger Roll will go again for the Cross Country chase though I wish it would be given a crack at the big one – the Gold Cup, as it is versatile where trip is concerned and loves Cheltenham in March (have had a little bet for that @ 100/1 just in case). I think it will be crucified when the weights come out for the Grand National and being a small horse I doubt it can back up last years win. I think I have already seen my horse for the Aintree race and have started backing it accordingly though I want to se it run again first before releasing it on here.

january 4th 12.50
Sentry Tournament of Champions in running play
Andrew Landry
15 points win 200/1
25 points top 5 16/1
Both with Mustardbet
I had toyed with the idea of Landry before the start as an outsider who may go well but wanted to see how he performed at the start before getting involved due to the usual poor performance of debutants. He did pretty well in round one as he played well to recover from being +2 through 5 to add 7 birdies (and another bogey) to eventually finish day one in a tie for 6th on -4.
The reason for my original interest was because of where he has won his pro events - last year to get his invite here he won in his home state of Texas so he is used to playing in the wind and it was certainly windy in San Antonio last year. Add to that his two wins on the both came on breezy coastal courses - the Abaco Resort in the Bahamas and Cartagena in Colombia.
Admittedly a win maybe a bit of a struggle but he should be a much lower price for the outright - most books are 66-100 although those with a Unibet account could avail themselves of 150/1 e/w though that only gives you four places

december 31st 13.56
First of all I hope you all had a good Festive season and here’s to a profitable 2019.
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Sentry Tournament of Champions
Marc Leishman
50 points ew 33/1 1/5 4 – 28/1 fine

I will start with the fact that some course experience is very important here – Chopra was the last player to win on his debut (2008) and Garcia was the only other debutant to win.
Thomas, Spieth and Reed all won on their second starts whilst the four winners before them were winning on their 7th,4th, 5th and 4th starts.
Leishman reminds me a bit of Ogilvy and Appleby  - Australians who were in their 30’s and won five between them from 2004 to 2010 and interestingly they won their first titles on their third appearance.
This is Leishmans third start – forget his 2013 performance as he had food poisoning (he even threw up three times on his first five holes) and concentrate on last years performance. He held the lead after round one and tied for the lead at the halfway stage before a very poor third round, bouncing back to finish 7th. I am willing to forgive him one poor round and last year he was generally a 20-25/1 shot and traded as low as 11/4 – I don’t see why he should be a bigger price this year.
Last year he had won in September in the BMW Championship, finished 2nd in South Korea and then 4th a month before in the Australian PGA. He has been in just as good form at the end of 2018 with a win in Malaysia and 2nd at home in the Australian PGA.
That win in the BMW Championship was in a no cut event (69 players) and he has now won three no cut events – including the Nedbank (30) and the CIMB Classic (78) – but it was the manner of those wins that was also noteworthy – five, six and five shots.
You need to go low at Plantation (although it is due to be windy the first two days) and his last two wins have been -23 and -26 respectively so if fit and ready he should go well.

december 12th 11.32
Alfred Dunhill Championship
Liam Johnston

Final write-up of the year and I am certainly ready for the break after a poor second half to 2018 – so maybe I can go out on a big hurrah!
I am guilty as charged for putting all my eggs in one basket for this event (or rather one big egg divided up into smaller baskets) though there is every possibility I will end up with egg on my face – that happens when you back 500/1 shots.

So where do I begin with the young Scotsman – well he turned pro ready for the 2018 season having had a fairly decent amateur career – reaching the top 50 in the World after his biggest achievement in March 2017 – winning the African Amateur – here at Leopard Creek. He seems to have forged a mentoring friendship with this weeks host Johann Rupert – hence the invites to the Alfred Dunhill Links event and he should feel comfortable in familiar surroundings.
He began 2018 with no status with an aim of making the European Tour in three years – he made it in nine months!
Starting off in the Pro-Golf tour he won on his fourth start in Morocco, he then got some invites to play on the Challenge Tour – he won the Costa del Sol matchplay on his third start, adding to that tally and securing his card in September with a win in the high profile Kazakhstan Open. Maybe it’s an omen that he makes his fourth start as a European Tour member on a course that holds such fond memories?
I am not too worried about his 72/mc/mc start to the campaign as he had gone mc/mc before winning in Morocco, had missed the cut the week before his matchplay win and missed three of four previous cuts before Kazakhstan. It’s what you get with young players – a huge amount of inconsistency.
What really got my attention was his aptitude for playing parkland courses – all his wins have been on similar tracks – and guess what Leopard Creek and Zhailju are BOTH Arnold Palmer designed parkland courses.
Now I admit this could be inspired research or an absolute load of rubbish but I have backed him to win a small fortune in lots of different markets including 1000 for the win on Betfair and with Mustardbet.
I wanted to take out the home equation and you can back him without the big three @ 400/500 with Sky, Sportingbet or Boyles if you are lucky enough – or Betfair are 250/1 and take out Wallace as well – but that sadly isn’t the case for most! So…
20 points ew 500/1 1/5 7 – a few 750/1
20 points top 10 50/1
20 points top 20 25/1
20 points ew top European 100/1 ¼ 4
20 points ew top GB& Ire 60/1
15 points ew FRL 250/1

december 12th 09.56
Indonesian Masters
Suradit Yongcharoenchai

30 points ew outright without Rose and Stenson 75/1 (average)
20 points ew FRL 100/1 – 80/1 and above fine

To me Rose looks pretty much unopposable but I will never take odds below 2/1 in a 140 runner field so I can only back my one selection in the outright market without Rose and they throw in Stenson as well!
There are plenty of books up although Oddschecker isn’t playing ball – all the normal copiers of the main books  plus Boyles 90, Skybet 80, Betfair/Paddy 66 etc
The young Thai player can be a little inconsistent but we have to remember he is still only 20 years of age and has shown a liking for the Royale Jakarta layout – 2nd in 2016 and 17th last year.
When he was 2nd he chucked in a second round of 74 which rather scuppered his chances and last year had bookend 72’s as opposed to Justin Rose 62’s!
With plenty of low rounds in those eight it makes sense to back him FRL although he does have a late tee time
As for current form well in his last nine starts he has a 2nd, 3rd and 5th in Asia and in his last four starts he has been 7/1/89/6 after the opening day

december 5th 11.50
There are enough books up to warrant a crack at this weeks Q School event played at the Whirlwind course in Arizona – just south of Tucson and Scottsdale.
I have gone for a two pronged attack – firstly home town players who have the luxury of sleeping in their own bed which gave me winner Jim Renner two years ago @ 200/1.
Secondly the top five players from the two feeder tours – Mackenzie and LatinoAmerica – are already granted cards for the tour and usually those placed 2nd to 5th turn up and play in this to improve their ranking. Over the past three years twenty such players have turned up and achieved places @ 33,66,100,150, 200 and 200. It really makes sense as these players know they have “job security” on this tour at the beginning of next year. Those in form on the Mackenzie Tour are particularly worthy of note – last years winner Lee McCoy had been 6th on that money list and 2015 winner Adam Svensson 9th
George Cunningham was 2nd on the Mackenzie Tour this year and he hasn’t been missed as he is around 20/1 and vying for favouritism but I just don’t get why those who sat just behind him are at least four times his price.

Zach Wright
25 points ew 100/1 – widely available
Zach gets in as a double whammy – 3rd in the money list just behind Cunningham and was born and lives in Phoenix

Michael Gellerman
15 points ew 150/1 – 125/1 fine
Not quite so keen on the chances of Gellerman who was 5th on the money list with a pair of 2nd places, but although I don’t think he lives there any longer (?) was born and raised in Tucson

Brock Mackenzie
20 points ew 175/1 – B365 are 200/1 – anything in 3 figures is fine
Phoenix resident and brother of Paige was one of the players who was 2nd on the Mackenzie Tour money list in 2016 and was then 4th in the Q School.
Teeing it up in 2017 in the first event of the season in the Bahamas he suffered a massive back injury and was out for a whole year, he returned this year on a medical exemption and just fell short of making it to the Final Series.
He has the ability, has gone this route before and warmed up with a win in a mini tour event at home in Arizona this week

I have been playing on the Betfair market as well as there are some decent prices being put up – I haven’t managed to get Mackenzie on board but have the other two and also added Corey Periera – 4th on the Mackenzie Tour money list, Michael Buttacavoli – 3rd on the Latino Tour courtesy of two ins including the season ending Shell Championship and couldn’t leave out last years winner Lee McCoy at double his book price
Lee Mccoy 110.00  £10.00  £1,090.00
Corey Pereira 152.14  £28.00  £4,232.00
Michael Buttacavoli 145.00  £20.00  £2,880.00
Michael Gellerman 189.13  £23.00  £4,327.00
Zach Wright 120.53  £19.00  £2,271.00

december 4th 12.24
Just to clear something up – this event is a combination of the South African Open and the Joburg Open played over the two courses at Randpark where last years Joburg Open was played with a field of 220 + players and is tri-sanctioned between the European, Sunshine and Asian tours – I think!
Louis Oosthuizen is the justifiably short priced favourite, I couldn’t be backing Fritelli @ 12/1 as he is yet to win on home soil in nearly 50 attempts, Norris and Harding are noteworthy but 40/1 just feels on the short side and one player I have left out from my original list is Jaco van Zyl who probably would have been a bet @ 100/1 (maybe worth a saver on Betfair) but he always gets in his own way.
So looking further down the list I have three picks for this week.

Haydn Porteous
30 points ew 66/1 – 1/5 7 places, 80/1 with B365 if you can get on there
I expected Porteous to play well here last year but he was only 16/1 and didn’t back him that short and the pressure of defending his first title clearly showed as he only finished 49th.
The reason for my interest was that he had strong memories of the Randpark courses as back in 2013 he won the Northern Amateur by an amazing 14 shots!
He hasn’t exactly set the world on fire this year but as a four time winner – twice in European events, once in Kenya and the Investec Cup at home I think he’s worth a crack at the odds this week

Zander Lombard
20 points ew  150/1 – again B365 are a standout 160/1 and 125/1 is acceptable
Staying on a theme – Lombard also won here in the 2012 Northern Amateur though not by such an emphatic margin but was disqualified in round one here last year.
He really is a hit and miss player – when he is on he’s hugely talented – when he’s off he’s awful but springs to life occasionally from nowhere.
He had a fairly awful 2018 until the Irish Open when he finished 6th which got him into the Open where he sat 6th at the cut before fading and that set him up for a low key win at home a few starts later.
After such a poor season he had to go back to Q School where he was co-medalist with Canizares beating Kitayama into 3rd – maybe he can take inspiration by that mans win last week in Mauritius

Kim Koivu
20 points ew 150/1 – 125/1 absolutely fine
Tipped him up last week @ 80/1 and would be foolish not to go in again, his win ratio is great and I just feel he will go on to win at this level.
He will probably be a player I will follow over a cliff and will probably forget to back when his time comes!

november 28th 11.01
Mauritius Open
Kim Koivu

40 points ew 80/1

A decent play based purely on price and potential for a player who appears to have the winning knack
The Finn has an interesting back story – he didn’t even pick up a club until he was 16  went to college in the States but decided he needed to totally change his swing before he turned professional.
That change took four years and he finally turned pro a year ago aged 26 having gained a Challenge Tour card through Q School.
It didn’t take him long to reap the rewards of all that effort winning in just his second start before adding two more victories in August to gain “battlefield promotion” to the main tour.
In just his third start he was 7th in Portugal and backed that up with a 9th in Hong Kong last week.
He reminds me a bit of Matt Wallace – a bit of a late developer who has the game and determination to win.
Whether this is his week remains to be seen but it’s a bit like Wallaces’ first win that came in a weak field – I’ll take the chance that the course will suit because I don’t think he will be these odds in this class of field very often

Siddikur Rahman
30 points top 5 finish – 28/1 or bigger – some 30/33 about

From a player who is a proven winner to one who can seemingly snatch defeat from the jaws of victory as he did in 2016 around here – on the 16th tee he has a three shot lead and was trading at 1/20 – he lost!
It’s not the first time that has happened and he only has one ADT victory, a win in Brunei in 2010 and a win around Delhi to his name in 188 career starts around the world
Apart from that win at Delhi he also has nine (!) top five finishes around that course in just 16 starts.
If that 2nd here was him showing a liking for the course then odds of around 28/1 + for a top 5 finish seem worth taking as he has a 15% top 5 strike rate in all career starts

november 27th 13.59
Australian PGA Championship
Sean Crocker

40 points ew 50/1

One of those frustrating mornings yesterday – the opening line from B365 was 110/1 but it was soon tumbling – I managed to get on @ 70/1 with one of the copiers but was always going to be a bet for me @ 50/1 despite his missed cut when we were on last week in Hong Kong.
He missed the cut on the mark having been out in the somewhat doomed morning wave on day one opening with a 76 he fired right back on day two with a ten shot better score of 66.
He has already shown a liking for golf down under – as I said last week he was 2nd in the strokeplay section of the World Super 6 in Perth and also finished 7th here at Royal Pines.
That 7th place finish was all the more impressive as he had a very cold week with the putter – if his tee to green play is as good as it was last year and the putter warms up he should be right in contention

november 21st 11.31
A very unusual market this week with the top 6 taking a huge chunk out the market but in my opinion this left us with some great e/w betting opportunities at inflated prices and we definitely had to go in early on Crocker and Sordet. The two obvious ones were the two Aussies Fraser and Scrivener with their course form and the dominance of Australian players in this over the past few years, however I didn’t think their prices warranted a bet – the former is almost impossible to get over the line and missed the cut here last year whilst the latter only has a poor Australian title to his name and a 5% top 5 strike rate in European Tour events.

Clement Sordet
25 points ew 150/1
20 points ew Top Continental European 60/1 1/5 4 – B365 are 66/1 (50/1 fine)
The talented young Frenchman graduated from the Challenge Tour in 2017 having won twice and things looked bright with a 10th place finish here but after that it all went a bit awry. Despite a late season spurt that remained his highest season on tour and despite a late season rally he had to go back to Q School where he finished a solid t6th. Those two victories in 2017 added to his wins in 2015 and 2016 so he certainly knows how to win and does seem to be a bit of a “horses for courses” type of player – Le Vaudreill 2/5/9, Gloria 1/5, Galgorm 1/6/34 – so he should be happy back here at Fanling.
It wasn’t the only time he had played well at this time of year in Asia – in 2015 he finished 2nd at Amata Spring taking a two shot lead into the final round only Donaldson beat him and whilst he tied with Westwood he beat Garcia, Fitzpatrick, Kaymer and Watson in a decent field.
I added the Continental Europe bet as despite his odds being cut outright this market was missed and takes out the likes of Fleetwood, Reed, Fitzpatrick and a lot of the well fancied players

Paul Peterson
25 points ew 80/1
20 points ew FRL 66/1 (60/1 fine)
The American was another who had to return to Q School but with less success and so returns to the Asian Tour where most of his career best results have been
Despite a largely indifferent season in Europe he has returned to Asia a few times this year and has a win and 2nd to his name
Last year he returned to playing in Asia in the Autumn and ran up finishes of 8/2/7/2 – the last finish being here in Hong Kong
It wasn’t the first time he had played well here as the year before as he opened 66/68 the year before to sit 3rd at the cut before fading – hence he is worth a crack in the FRL market

Sean Crocker
30 points ew 66/1
This young Zimbabwean is destined to make a name for himself on the world stage and didn’t need to go to Q School to get his card having won it via the Challenge Tour – in just ten events he had no less than four 3rd place finishes and a 5th. It is worth noting two of those came in the Chinese events so he should feel right at home in Hong Kong – indeed he showed that when 16th here last year and is now a much better player. He followed that up with a 7th in the Australian PGA and 6th in the Singapore Open (which got him an invite to the Open) and even sat 3rd with a round to go in the Qatar Masters.
Course form here correlates well with Lake Karrinyup and in the World Super 6th he sat 2nd after three rounds of strokeplay before being knocked out in the quarter finals
I reckon he is a cracking each way play this week

Ashley Chesters
25 points ew 90/1 (80/1 fine) 130 for the win on Betfair
Last but no means least I will give the young Englishman another crack on a course that should in theory suit his short but incredibly accurate game.
He got us a place in the Andalucian Masters even after a shocking start to his final round he fought back really well and late season form from Valderrama pans out well here
Admittedly he was only 39th on his debut last year but if you look at his form this year he has stepped up his results on more or less every course he has played well before.
I am not concerned about his last two finishes on venues which wouldn’t have suited his game – basically giving up 30-40 yards a hole means he had no chance despite always sticking it in the fairway – that won’t be an issue this week

november 14th 19.12
CT Pan and JJ Spaun are obvious picks this week but I am happy to overlook two non PGA tour winners @ around the 20/25 mark – I believe that way the poor house beckons but it means there is value further down the field

Jim Furyk
60 points ew 50/55 – lots of different place options were available
I simply don’t get the price of Furyk this week – can only be his age that makes him a big price considering his current/course form yet what did we see last week with two forty somethings winning for the first time in a while, and it’s only been 3 ½ years since his last tour win.
He has had a lot more on his plate than most players this year with the Ryder Cup captaincy but he was 4th in the Wyndham Championship before those duties fully took over. Returning to normal playing duties was always going to be a bit tricky and he m/c at Summerlin but followed that up with 6th last week in Mexico. He may also be inspired by two of this years Ryder Cup Vice Captains winning last week.
You can forget him contending at bombers courses but this is right up his alley – two of his last three wins have been around Harbour Town – very similar to this weeks venue.
He has solid course form of 11/3/6 and feels right at home in Georgia with excellent form around East Lake including 1/2/2/3
Last weeks 6th showed his game was in fine fettle ranking 1st for DA and 2nd for GIR – if he can maintain that at this weeks venue he won’t be far away

Robert Streb
20 points ew 110/1
Not often you can back a player at three figures in a fairly weak field who has won the event before, won just three months ago (admittedly a finals event) and was 4th on his penultimate start on the PGA tour.
I just think he is a value bet at the odds when you consider the above points (now 140 on Betfair)

november 14th 17.20
First of all a quick apology re Zach Murray – I got the round wrong he played at the Lakes Course in the 2015 Australian Amateur - he shot a 65 round the other course. Rare I make mistakes – apart from backing the wrong players! I was also going on the tee times from the Australian PGA site but Sinnott now does not play.

DP World Tour Championship
Paul Dunne
20 points ew FRL 125/1 Ladbrokes/Coral 100/1 fine

My only play of the week as I think the cream will rise to the top on a bombers birdie fest paradise but from a statistical point of view Dunne is worth a look at in this market.
If you look at the stats Dunne isn’t the biggest hitter in the field but over the last few months he seems to have found some extra yardage ranking 8th in the field over the past four months
He played here last year and opened with a 67 to sit 4th and whilst he was let down by rounds two and four he also shot a 67 in round three so can clearly score around here.
Finally in 85 tour starts he has co-led four times and held the outright lead twice including just two weeks ago in Turkey when opening with a 64 – there’s certainly some value in a three figure price

november 14th 11.45
Zach Murray

20 points ew 66/1 FRL
30 points ew 80/1 Outright

I will kick off the blog with this weeks Australian Open as it starts the earliest – 7.45 UK time this evening.
This was a great event last year getting Cameron Davis as FRL @ 125/1 and a “suggested” outright bet at a huge price and I return to the Australian Amateur event from 2015 which led me to Davis last year.
That event which was won by the youngster was held over two courses – the main matchplay on last years venue the Australian course but the strokeplay was held over that course and this weeks The Lakes course.
In the two round strokeplay part Murray shot the lowest round of 65 – a very impressive score so it should bring back some good memories.
The 21 year old has decided to turn pro for his home Open on the back of some very solid form whilst still an amateur.
He won the Western Australian Open a few weeks ago leading from wire to wire and was half way leader in the Queensland Open the following week and was bang there for a place on the final day til a couple of late double bogeys dropped him to 20th.
I was hopeful of a slightly bigger price like Davis last year but then again we don’t have Spieth or Day in the field.
The FRL bet would be bigger but he has been allocated a late tee time although he does play with his best mate and roomie Synott which should help him settle

november 9th 10.59
Mayakoba Classic in play bet

Russell Henley
40 points ew 50/1 1/4 5 (Betfair 1/5 6)

Henley was on my radar before the start due to where his three PGA tour wins have been as there seems to be a correlation with the Sony and even the venue of his two other wins Houston and PGA National. My one concern was lack of form and never played here before but a -5 opening round has allayed those fears so in the book he goes

European Qualifying School
Oscar Lengden 25 points ew 125/1 1/5 6 (150/1 Betvictor)

There now seem to be enough books up to warrant a bet in this six round event that starts tomorrow.
Earlier this year Lengden looked set to gain his card through the Challenge Tour with ease after winning the Catalunya Challenge just down the road from this weeks venue by a comfortable four shot margin.
However a complete loss of form over the Summer saw him slip slowly down the rankings though he did rally in his last two events with 7th and 17th narrowly missing out on gaining a full tour card.
The reason I like him this week is that compilers seem to have missed his Nordic League form over the two courses – Lumine Hills and Lakes – where in 2016 and 2017 he produced form of 2/34/7/1
The 34 may look bad but in the 54 hole event he was joint leader into the final round before tearing a muscle and being barely able to play.
If we take the 11 rounds he has played over the two courses when fit we have an average score of 68.36 which would see him score around 410 – probably enough for a place looking at last years result – Horsfield was a runaway winner.
Ordinarily this would be a bigger bet but there is always one caveat – you don’t have to win just get your card so the higher you finish the better.

november 7th 19.12
Ken Tanigawa

40 points ew 100/1 – B365 are 110/1

Location! Location! Location!
Tanigawa probably can’t believe the year he has had, once a pro with little success he regained his amateur status with a great deal of success later in life.
The Scottsdale resident then decided to enter Champions Q School and got a card and turned pro again.
The key is this week we play in Phoenix where he gained his card at the end of the last year and he is sure at home in Arizona as in recent years he won
2014 Arizona mid am
2015 Arizona mid am, Arizona amateur 
2017 Arizona amateur  
He was also runner up in the 2016 Arizona amateur – all against players mainly less than half his age
Whilst this weeks course is different to those events above he does also have plenty of experience of this weeks.
What tipped the balance was that his win just 6 weeks ago came at Pebble Beach – a course he has played all his life as he studied at UCLA
Massive outsider but he has already exceeded his expectations and with home advantage he should give a good account of himself

november 7th 16.07
Trevor Immelman

15 points ew 200/1
Various ways of getting on – fine if you have a Fred account
He is 240/1 on Betfair Exchange e/w market
He is 400+ for the win and 40+ for the top 5
I admit to backing him to win a fair chunk @ 400 but that would probably be traded IF he gets close!
Yup totally left field I know but Immelman is still only 38 and may not be done as a golfer yet and take up his full time commentating role.
It may seem an age since his Masters victory but the last time he actually strung a few events together 5 years ago he won in the finals series.

His 3rd place finish in the Scottish Open came totally out of the blue but he reckons he has been playing quite well for most of the year but letting rounds slip – on Sunday he had to fight hard to simply get into this week, he improved with every round and just squeaked in despite a double bogey on his final hole.
He said he was desperate to get into the Nedbank and play the Gary Player course for the first time in a decade as he has won the now defunct old style Nedbank and also the Dimension Data Pro-Am around this course.
Yup I know it’s been a while since he played here but if you look at long term scoring averages only Willett comes out better and IF he can repeat his 3rd in the Scottish Open he should come close.

november 7th 11.17
Over the years the Mayakoba Golf Classic (or whatever it has decided to call itself) has tended to go the way of the older more wily veteran golfer and I have put up one accordingly and one youngster who may well relish the return to a venue with happy memories

Kevin Streelman
35 points ew 125/1 – 100/1 fine
As I stated last week he hit the big 4 0 on Sunday and hopefully he hasn’t been celebrating too much since then as he has a fine record here.
With a  stroke average of 68.35 he leads this weeks field on those that have played here three times before, he has never missed a cut and has a 3rd and 4th place finish to his name.
The main problem is that the 4th place in 2016 was his last top 5 finish on the PGA tour so I guess I really am hoping that turning 40 will have an impact on his game

Cameron Davis
45 points ew 70/1 outright  (I got 7 places) 66/1 is fine
20 points ew 66/1 FRL
Then we come to the youngster which in theory goes against the grain of what I said about wily old veterans.
In 2016 Davis played in the Eisenhower Trophy here – partnered by Curtis Luck they won the team competition by a staggering 19 strokes and Davis won the individual honours by two.
On the back of that he was invited to make his second pro start here when still only 21 and finished a very creditable 15th. In that finish he shot two rounds of 66 to add to the rounds of 66 and 68 he shot in the Eisenhower Trophy (two courses were used)
We were on when he shocked his home nation (well FRL at least!) winning the Australian Open just under a year ago.
He played on the tour for much of this year managing to secure his full PGA card in just 15 starts with a 1st, 3rd, 3rd and 4th and has gone 17/c/28 in his three starts to date.
With such great memories of the venue and being a huge talent who hits it miles and can really putt (think Cameron Champ) I reckon he is a solid bet this week

october 31st 11.17
One of those events where those at the head of the market considering current form, course form and number of wins have to be taken on and I thought it would be easy to find some value further down the field but apart from Spaun I have struggled – mainly due to the fact that there seems to be little rhyme nor reason to most winners here bar an affinity with desert golf.

JJ Spaun
40 points ew 125/1
I think Spaun has a bit of everything going for him this week and was surprised to see him chalked up at such a big price.
Last year was his second season on tour and he notched up a 2nd and two 3rd’s – certainly an improvement on a 4th and a 6th the year before.
His top finishes have been all over the States but he has shown a liking for desert golf with 3rd in Nevada this year and 4th in Scottsdale Arizona the year before.
He missed the cut on his debut here in 2016 but last years performance stands out – he led at the cut and indeed was still joint leader heading into the final round before falling to 10th with the strong swirling winds really catching him out over the weekend (there are no such winds in the forecast this week)
A top ten finish last time out in South Korea where he improved with every round should put him spot on for this and hopefully replicate his run of form exactly a year ago
Due to his fast start last year and an early tee time I have also backed him in the FRL market – 15 points ew 80/1

After scratching around all week for another selection I have decided to side with Kevin Streelman – it would be a good way to celebrate his 40th birthday on Sunday!
His form is fairly average around here but he was 2nd four years ago, the problem is how to back him as he hasn’t had a top 5 finish in two years but last year amassed five top tens in the full season.
If you can get on the 125/1 ew 6 or 7 places great but I would recommend
20 points win 160 and above Betfair
10 points top 5 25/1
30 points top 10 10/1

october 30th 17.34
Joost Luiten

40 points ew 40/1
I think the 50/1 on Betfair is also well worth a dabble and he is 46/1 with no commission with Mustardbet
I was looking a bit further down the field this week (nothing new there!) as I feel those at the top of the listings are beginning to run on fumes and looking for someone with fresh legs Luiten certainly fits that bill.
He probably thought at the beginning of the year having won in Oman he could make a challenge for the Ryder Cup squad but that was derailed with a wrist injury and he was forced into a five month layoff.
He returned in the Andalucian Masters two weeks ago finishing a very creditable 11th improving his score with every round and was very pleased with his performance. What makes it even more incredible if the stats are to be believed is that he was putting and scrambling very badly – a part of the game which I think is a great indicator of rustiness – the feel around the short game.
The guy is a clinical finisher when he gets the chance and six European Tour wins to his name is testament to that fact.
As for course form – well 16th place in his only start belies the fact that he was joint leader after round one and shot a 67 in round three – it was only a second round 73 that cost him
For a confirmed winner, who is rested more than most on a course that should suit I think he is worth a crack @ 40/1 and above

october 27th 11.33
To be honest selections haven’t played very well this week but there is one player who nearly went in the book at the start and now definitely has to go in.
As I stated in my preview there is an odd link between Jackson and Victoria National and a past winner of the latter event is on the fringes of contention.
Seamus Power won that event on the tour in 2016  and has plied his trade on the main tour for the last two years admittedly without a lot of success.
But he does have form here in two starts (albeit faltering in the final round on each occasion) – 2016 he was 6th and 2 back heading into Sunday and last year was 3rd although 6 behind with that final round to go.
He does like it here as this quote shows “ It's just one of those courses when I step on the tee boxes, I kind of like how the lines look, and then the greens are cut -- I like putting on fast greens,”
Currently t15th on -5 he will need a more consistent weekend but @ 66/1 ¼ 4 I think he’s worth a punt – 25 points ew.
october 25th 11.04
A little update for those who hadn't read my blog from a couple months back
As you are probably aware I deleted the Bookmaker review page from the site last year as I couldn’t really justify recommending many bookmakers but for the first time in many years I can say that this Bookmaker should be part of your betting portfolio – Mustardbet
They first came to my attention four years ago and I have been waiting for them to launch their Sportsbook which came last year but more importantly for me been waiting for them to offer decent golf markets which they now do. A spin off from Gambit Research with connections to Mollybet I am happy to say there is plenty behind this organisation. I have been trialling them for the past month and must admit I love what I see – a refreshing change from the “High Street” books and hopefully the future – well something has to change!!
The user interface is very simple and very quick to load mainly due to its simplicity – gone are all the bells and whistles of most sites. The actual betting interface is great with a rotating bet platform that loads instantaneously showing the price available and the amount you can bet. If you fancy a price the bet is placed immediately – no delay and the price is automatically changed. Still like the price – well you can go in again.
That takes me onto betting limits – well in theory there really aren’t any – if you still like a price you can carry on betting up to the max at each price – they use algorithms to set the prices much like Pinnacle. Obviously I can only talk about golf but at present they are betting to win £5k on this weeks PGA tour. However you have to remember you can bet multiple times to build up big positions and that includes in-play.
If you fancy Seung-Jae Im this week he is 25/1 on the High Street and being matched around that on Betfair but nearly 30/1 with Mustardbet
Admittedly they don’t bet each way but they do offer all the place individual markets.
For me I can see this is the future of my golf betting – their odds are often on a par with the Betfair Exchange with far better “liquidity” especially in running and no commission or premium charge to boot. With the colour of their website maybe they are the Purple Bricks of the betting world.
In short they are a must have in your portfolio – to open an account simply click here and find out what I am talking about - Mustardbet

october 24th 14.46
A difficult event to weigh up with outsiders winning all four events at the Jackson course in Mississippi, but I spotted a theme two years ago which developed again last year and that is the correlation between this and events staged on the Tour @ the Victoria National. In reality it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense but it seems to work!
1st Armour – 2nd VN
3rd Randolph – 2nd twice VN
4th Kaufman – Won VN
1st Gribble – 9th and 2nd VN
2nd Owen – Won VN
1st Malnati – 9th and 14th VN
4th Kizzire – 5th VN
4th Castro – 5th VN

Roberto Castro
20 points ew outright 100/1 (110/1 365)
20 points ew FRL 80/1
As you can see from above Castro already has form here when 4th in his second and last start back in 2015 when he opened with a course record 62 and led by 2 after round one and by 4 at the cut before a very poor round 3 before bouncing back in the final round. I have my doubts about him winning but a replication of his 62 would see him go close in the opening round.
Having regained his playing rights through the regular money list on the tour it seems odd that he didn’t compete in any of the Tour final events – electing to have a bit of a break so he should be fresher than most

Wyndham Clark
20 points ew outright 150/1 – get as many places as possible
20 points ew FRL 125/1 – 100/1 fine
I think Clark will make a name for himself on the PGA tour in the next few seasons after making it on to the main tour in his rookie season on the
He gained his card thanks to a 2nd,3rd,4th and 5th on that tour – worth noting his 2nd came at Victoria National
He has a few PGA tour starts to his name – mainly due to sponsors invitations and his best finish was 17th here last year when he opened with a 66 and tied the lead
In the Safeway Open he also opened with a 66 to sit 4th and that seems a sensible route to go as well as the outright bet

october 23rd 11.15
Matt Wallace

35 pts ew 125/1 Outright
I will admit to being disappointed with his finish at Walton Heath having had a decent bet on but you could see once Pepperell chipped in for eagle and moved 5 clear Wallace knew he couldn’t win – and he’s that sort of golfer – all he wants to do is win and has proved that already.
This is a big step up in grade but so was the step up from the Alps Tour to the European Tour and that has gone very well!
On the question of travelling – well he hasn’t gone far afield that regularly in his fledgling career but a win in India and 3rd in the China Open prove that it probably isn’t a hinderance.
I don’t like mentioning a persons personal grief but Wallace put it up on Twitter – he lost his Gran on the Thursday of the British Masters and then last week lost a close golfing buddy to cancer – this often spurs a golfer on and he has said he would like a big finish to the year in their “honour”
First Round Leader – having put up Levy and Wallace outright at Walton Heath and then Chesters last week and see them all finish atop the leaderboard after day one was a bit galling to say the least so I have also backed Wallace for this market. In just 47 European Tour starts he has co-led four times (including the last twice and 2nd the week before) and been outright leader once. Throw in a 2nd after round one in the China Open and I think he is worth a crack in this market this week. Personally availed myself of the 80/1 at Ladbrokes but 20 points e/w 66/1 will suffice

october 16th 21.25
Andalucia Masters
Clement Sordet

20 points ew outright 150/1 – get as many places as you can I took 1/5 6
At the end of the season I like to look at least one player who needs a high finish to retain his Tour card and Sordet certainly meets that criteria – roughly speaking he needs a top 6 finish to continue playing on the main tour next year.
What first caught my eye was his gradual progress over the last 3 finishes going 40/28/16 but more important is his all round stats – 3rd in Portugal and 4th last week at Walton Heath
He makes his debut at Valderrama which is always a worry on a tough track but I always associate Hong Kong with this weeks course and that represents his best finish so far when 10th
With that in mind I was tempted to back him for a top ten finish but he knows (if he has done the maths like I have) he needs a top 6 finish
He is a promising young player who won’t be the first to go back to Q School or the lower Challenge Tour but he has four wins already at that level at the age of just 25
Pablo Larrazabal
30 points ew FRL 50/1
Larrazabal is a player I don’t think has ever reached his full potential and I wouldn’t want to back him outright but in this market I feel he warrants an interest
He has 5 starts to his name on this course at home in Spain and his results read as follows
2008 73 16th
2010 66 1st
2011 74 36th
2016 68 6th
2017 67 3rd
On every occasion he has been handed a late tee time and still pulled off three good first rounds
This week he has been handed an early berth – will be interesting to see if he can capitalise on that although there doesn’t seem any advantage in early or late with the weather

october 15th 22.25
From today SBI will no longer be a paid subscription site for tips - was going to wait til the end of the year but hand has been rather forced that affiliates will no longer accept advertisers who charge for tips. I understand why due to unscrupulous activity from affiliate partners - something I have never done - but will now publish my betting activity for no fees. I hope you enjoy reading my random thoughts on golf events and the odd horse race - always slightly off the wall but has stood me in good stead for the last 18 years! My bets are based on a points system - up to you if you want to invest but a max bet for me is 100 points depending how confident I feel
Andalucia Masters Outright
Ashley Chesters
40 points ew 100/1 – get as many places as possible
The theme of English players continued last week with Pepperell winning @ Walton Heath – sadly Wallace limped home once he knew his winning chance had gone
It really is a poor field – imagine if Garcia pulled out – Lowry would be around 9/1 and Westwood 16/1!!
Sadly a lot of run of the mill players are very short prices this week but the young Englishman Chesters catches my eye (spot the theme!)
The key to Valderrama is finding fairways and greens and nobody is better in this weeks field than Chesters – topping the Total Accuracy Stats on tour for the last 6 months
Yet to really trouble the judge this year his best finishes have been 7th and 9th in similarly weak fields largely let down by some pretty average putting.
That’s where it gets interesting – one of his best results last year was here when 12th – his closing 69/68 over the weekend was matched by few and shows he got better as the week progressed and learnt the course – but even more importantly was that he was 3rd for putts per round. If he can putt like that again and continue his excellent ball striking he could go close

october 13th 14.17
Sunday 4.45 Limerick Munster National
This was the race that I first backed Tiger Roll in back in 2016 - an unexposed 6 year old chaser making its handicap debut for Gordon Elliott and he won if with considerable ease at 20/1.
Tomorrow he runs a very similar horse in the shape of the ironically named Its All Guesswork and I can see Elliott winning the race for a second time.
It is important to note this race is won by unexposed young chasers - no horse over the age of 8 has won this in the last 14 years and 11 of the last 13 winners have only had 1 or 2 chase wins.
Those stats have to act against Rogue Angel (10) and Our Father who has been well backed but been off the course for 1382 days! plus my old favourite Raz de Maree who is now 13.
Elliott also runs Alpha des Obeaux who has swapped stables from Mouse Morris - but he usually needs his first run and maybe Elliott has kept him in off top weight to allow Its All Guesswork to run off 10 stone dead - would have been a 10lb rise otherwise.
The selection has been running over shorter trips over fences so far but shapes like it will stay 3 miles and in its one attempt over the distance over hurdles won very easily.
It seems capable of running on any sort of going and for me ticks all the right boxes.
I have been backing it during the week each way @ 12/1 and some at 10/1 and still think the latter price is decent

august 24th 11.33
Well it’s been a while since I posted here on the blog but to be honest I haven’t had anything that exciting to talk about but today I think I have! As you are probably aware I deleted the Bookmaker review page from the site last year as I couldn’t really justify recommending many bookmakers but for the first time in many years I can say that this Bookmaker should be part of your betting portfolio – Mustardbet
They first came to my attention four years ago and I have been waiting for them to launch their Sportsbook which came last year but more importantly for me been waiting for them to offer decent golf markets which they now do. A spin off from Gambit Research with connections to Mollybet I am happy to say there is plenty behind this organisation. I have been trialling them for the past month and must admit I love what I see – a refreshing change from the “High Street” books and hopefully the future – well something has to change!!
The user interface is very simple and very quick to load mainly due to its simplicity – gone are all the bells and whistles of most sites. The actual betting interface is great with a rotating bet platform that loads instantaneously showing the price available and the amount you can bet. If you fancy a price the bet is placed immediately – no delay and the price is automatically changed. Still like the price – well you can go in again.
That takes me onto betting limits – well in theory there really aren’t any – if you still like a price you can carry on betting up to the max at each price – they use algorithms to set the prices much like Pinnacle. Obviously I can only talk about golf but at present they are betting to win £8k on this weeks PGA tour, £5k on the European Tour and £2k on the tour. However you have to remember you can bet multiple times to build up big positions and that includes in-play.
To give an example – the other week I fancied Martin Trainer on the Tour – bookmaker prices were 50/1 – Mustardbet were 80/1 and I backed him seven times down to 66/1 to win £14k – find me another bookmaker who would entertain that!!
This week again on the smaller tour my main fancy Sam Burns bogeyed early and was pushed from 40/1 to 80/1 which I felt was an extreme reaction – top up duly made.
Admittedly they don’t bet each way but they do offer all the place individual markets.
For me I can see this is the future of my golf betting – their odds are often on a par with the Betfair Exchange with far better “liquidity” especially in running and no commission or premium charge to boot. With the colour of their website maybe they are the Purple Bricks of the betting world.
In short they are a must have in your portfolio – to open an account simply click here and find out what I am talking about - Mustardbet

april 21st 10.48
It’s the London Marathon tomorrow and whilst I have every respect for Kipchoge who is a deserved favourite there is a dark horse in the race and even with an odds on favourite it is nice to see a lot of books paying 1/5th the odds the first three home.
The weather is going to be unseasonably warm and I can see quite a few of the leading contenders dropping out especially if they go the fast pace to aim for records.
I really like the look of Lawrence Cherono (especially each way) as he is the 5th fastest runner in the field but has been assigned odds much higher than he should be – probably because he hasn’t run in a Major event before yet his record is an impressive one in lesser marathons.
Over the past couple of years his record reads 2/1/2/1/DNF/2/1/1 – that is incredibly consistent. Two of those last three wins have come in the Honolulu marathon which by definition is a warm weather marathon run on a very hilly course. In 2016 he won in 2.09.39 – knocking nearly 2 minutes off the course record and three minutes faster than previous London marathon winner Wilson Kipsang. He returned in December last year and lowered the record to 2.08.27!! Even more impressive is that just two months before he had won the Amsterdam Marathon in a course record 2.05.09 – a personal best for him and lowering the course record of Daniel Wanjiru who used Amsterdam as a stepping stone to winning the London Marathon last year.
So Wanjiru is around a 10/1 shot for tomorrow yet Cherono is five times the price – it makes absolutely no sense! He will probably have to improve his PB to contend but he is a rapidly improving runner who really should be an awful lot shorter especially with the each way market paying three places.
It took a bit of shopping around but I have £30 ew 50/1 and £30 win only 50/1 – good luck!
In the ladies race it probably does come down to a duel between Keitany and Dibaba but if they do go too fast in the warm weather and cut each others throats then the World Championship winner Rose Chelimo who won her gold in London in August could make a bid for a podium finish – a small bet of £12.50 ew 80/1 1/5 3.

april 20th 12.11
The last of the big four Grand Nationals tomorrow in Scotland – must admit this year hasn’t been too bad – Raz de Maree 1st in Wales, 2nd and 3rd in Ireland and then Tiger Roll winning last week – I have done four for varying reasons for the Ayr showpiece tomorrow.
For a change Gordon Elliott only has the one entry in the shape of Fagan so he must think he has a chance. I admit backing it antepost for the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham but it seems maybe the Irish maestro was saving him for this week. He is typically an unexposed chaser having his first run in a handicap and stepped up in trip – I managed to get £25 ew 16/1 – currently 12/1 I can easily see it going off shorter.
Sticking with Irish raiders Glencairn View has been a bit of a revelation stepped up to 3 miles in handicap chases. He won @ Punchestown in January then was 3rd in the Leinster National before winning a valuable Novice Handicap Chase at Navan. He has gone up a fair bit in the weights but is an improving horse. I got £25 ew at an average of 22/1 and added another £20 ew @ 25/1 on Betfair.
The National Hunt Chase has been a good guide of late – Vicente was 5th before winning this, Godsmejudge 3rd and Beshabar 2nd in recent years so Sizing Tennessee being 3rd last month catches my eye especially as he lost a shoe in running. He did fade a little bit up the hill at Cheltenham but he has often indicated he will stay a trip like this. I have had £40 ew 20/1 and added £40 23/1 average on Betfair.
Lastly Label des Obeaux looks like he has been laid out for this all season – having won the 3 mile Novice Handicap Chase at the meeting last year he has somehow got in off a one pound lower mark for this. When you look at the Racing Post comments for his last two runs in top class 3 mile handicap chases of “never threatened” and “never a factor” you do wonder what he will be like stepped up in trip an extra mile. He is probably the one I like the most and had the biggest bet on - £40 ew 25/1 and £70 28/1 average on Betfair.

april 18th 12.19
Had been in the doldrums for a little while but a nice 100/1 winner last week got us back on track - below is what I wrote about Steve Flesch - you can join for just £10 a month by visiting the tipping results page
Steve Flesch
25 points ew 100/1 – a few are 125/1
Flesch is one of those mid rank PGA tour players with a few wins to his name who I expected to do well on the Champions Tour but it hasn’t quite happened yet
The problem is he hasn’t been driving the ball that well but he started to last time out where he was 2nd for total driving and ball striking – all he needs now is the putter to get hot
This week seems as good as any as he played Sugarloaf well when it was used on the PGA tour with best finishes of 3rd, 8th and 10th twice in ten attempts
In those ten starts he putted brilliantly on three occasions finishing 1st, 1st and 2nd for putting average

april 13th 12.05
I can’t really let the Grand National pass without mentioning my other favourite horse – Tiger Roll – having backed it four times and winning three all at big prices I admit to having £75 ew @ 16/1 when Elliott declared him a runner – the horse owes me nothing. I have my doubts about tomorrow for him though – if you look back at his career he is primed for races and the next time he runs he flops. The Cross Country Chase @ Cheltenham was always his target and I just get the feeling he will be hunted around tomorrow and maybe targeted for the race next year.
I am happy with Raz de Maree and with a clear run he will be there at the finish but the only other horse that I think may outrun his odds at the bottom of the handicap is Double Ross. He has plenty of form round the National course – 5th in the Grand Sefton and the Topham over inadequate trips and staying on at the finish. If you look at his National run on soft ground in 2016 he was bang there with the leaders with about a mile to go until his saddle slipped – the jockey even jumped Valentines with no irons before pulling up. Will it stay – well that’s the big question – but he always seems to be plodding along at the end of his races – including when 4th in the Kim Muir last time out over a mile shorter. I just don’t get his price compared to some a lot shorter but have only invested modestly - £25 ew 100/1 ¼ 5 and £50 win 120 on Betfair

april 10th 12.10
Thirteen year olds don’t win the Grand National or so we are told, they also don’t win the Welsh National – but try telling that to Gavin Cromwell and his veteran chasing star Raz de Maree. Over the years I build up an affinity with these staying chasers and have to admit Raz has been one of my favourites in recent years. The year before aged 12 I was on Raz each way at 50/1 in the Welsh National when it chased home Native River – and that is a very good benchmark indeed. I backed it last year in the Grand National to win a small fortune (well for me!) and he was a bit unlucky ducking to avoid a fallen horse in front and chucking Ger Fox out the side door – but you need a bit of luck in running. Hopefully he can stay out of trouble under a sensible ride from Grand National winning jockey Robbie Power.
He was then pulled up in the Irish National after his saddle slipped at the first fence. After an unusual fall at Limerick in October (he has never fallen before) he finished 2nd over 3 ½ miles on soft ground in the Cork National – where the winner Logical Song appeared as a blot on the handicap. Then freshened up over hurdles on unsuitable good ground he went on to win the Welsh National over 3 m 5f in soft ground – staying on when all others cried wolf. That day he was 25/1 early on – purely because 13 year olds won’t win!
To be honest we don’t get many 13 year old runners in the National these days – they are usually rated too low to get in but Vics Canvas did the old brigade proud two years ago when 3rd @ 100/1 – I was on that day each way and he even traded at 6/4 jumping the last upsides the lead.
Raz is only a little horse so can’t run under a big weight and I was mightily relieved Cromwell saved him for this instead of running in the Midlands National under top weight – a race he had previously been 2nd in 2015 on soft going. On Saturday he gets to run with just 10 8  on his back – actually a pound lower than last year.
Another key fact is he is slow but stays all day when other horses are flagging Raz keeps going – if they go the usual fast pace it will be a war of attrition over the last mile and few will be staying on better than Raz de Maree. He did jump round in 8th back in 2014 but never got the chance to get in a blow as they went too quick for him on the faster ground.  So I hope the rain keeps falling and I am sure a few headlines will use the translation of his French name “Tidal Wave” if he was to prevail. Just to bring into perspective the fact about Grand National statistics -  a few years ago a “golden rule” was never to back a French bred horse – then we had three winners in six years!!
So onto my bets – I don’t expect anyone to copy (well you can’t as prices have gone!) but I have been backing it since January and my current bets read
£125 ew 50/1 – some Non Runner money back and a variety of place terms from 4 to 6
My bets on Betfair are £150 win 80/1 average and £20 top 4 25/1
I know my heart will be in my mouth come 5.15 on Saturday but sometimes you have to back up your gut instinct with hard cash – will be back later in the week with further thoughts and picks

april 1st 13.53
A bit like Elliot and Mullins I will be entering the fray mob handed!!
A few points to note – three of the last four winners were having their first run in a handicap, four of the last eleven winners had run in the National Hunt Chase @ Cheltenham. You have to go back to 1997 to find a winner aged older than ten. Having said that there are always lies, damn lies and statistics – trends are there to be broken and only to be used as a guide. I remember people telling me Rule the World couldn’t win the Grand National as it hadn’t won a chase – and we know what happened there!
Below are my thoughts on the horses that interest me and also a few that don’t.
The official going is soft/heavy – those at the top of the weights are going to struggle in a race often dominated by horses further down the handicap – Our Duke was the exception last year winning shouldering 11-4 but that was run on good to yielding ground.
I have a sneaky suspicion that Elliott has left in Outlander simply so some of his further down the handicap get in off a lower weight – although it is having its first handicap run it does have 18 chase runs to its name  - and the jockey takes off a valuable 7lb.
Bellshill could well be this years Our Duke – it looks a good horse and is running in a handicap for the first time but I am happy to leave it out carrying 11-5
Monbeg Notoriuos looks a seriously good horse and easily won the Thyestes – but he now has to carry 15lb more in its second handicap chase
Pairofbrowneyes is the favourite on the back of winning the Leinster National over half a mile shorter on its first run for Mullins. Considering what it had achieved before (admittedly over shorter trips) I do have my doubts about it.
Mall Dini is the horse that fits the category of running in the 4 mile National Hunt Chase, sent off a well backed favourite it finished 2nd making it 0/10 over fences. There hasn’t been much of a gap between the two races this year and it had a hard race.
Lingering down the bottom of the weights on just 9-10 is Squouateur and this is the horse I fancy the most. Well known as being well backed for the Kim Muir in the last two years – he was just getting into it last year when unseating and this year ran a good race to be 3rd. The only other time it has run over 3 miles over fences was in the Paddy Power Chase where it finished a very creditable 3rd to Anibale Fly beaten just over 8 lengths – that horse then went on to finish a distant 3rd in the Gold Cup so is probably a good yardstick. I admit it has yet to win a chase but has mainly been campaigned over trips far short of what it probably needs.
Staying down the bottom of the handicap Forever Gold catches my eye with course and distance figures of 2/1/2. It ran no sort of race in the Grand National trial at Punchestown last time out and is now fitted with a tongue tie for the first time. Whilst I find it difficult to envisage it winning I can see it running on into a place.
Trends and stats say Blessthewings has no chance at the age of 13 but the old warhorse still seems to retain some ability. He has been 2nd in the race the last two years off 135 and 137 and runs again off 137 this year. Ran poorly in his first two starts of the year but bounced back to win a Cross Country Handicap @ Cheltenham off 147. He was then saved for the Cross Country Chase at the Festival and was running well when he fell. That was the first time he had ever fallen in his career and Elliott said he just lost a bit of concentration. Do not write off this old-timer yet.
Sticking with the older horses – whilst Isleofhopendreams is now 11 he has spent a lot of his career away from the track with two breaks of nearly two years each time – so much so that this will be only his fourth chase start. He ran poorly in his first two starts this season but was a revelation when stepped up in trip in the trial race at Punchestown just being denied by Folsom Blue who he now has a 4lb pull on.
From one extreme to the other – there are two six year olds running and both of them I can give a bit of a chance as they are unexposed. Kemboy only has the three chase runs to his name all in non-handicaps and all over a trip a mile shorter than this. However I don’t think Mullins would have entered it if he didn’t think it stood a chance although he will have to improve his jumping to be competitive.
The other youngster is Moulin A Vent – if you like Monbeg Notorious then you have to give this one some sort of chance – as he beat that horse by 18 lengths here over three miles in December. Admittedly the latter reversed the placings last time out but Moulin A Vert made some terrible jumping errors that day. Considering how well he beat Monbeg Notorious then a mark 6lb lower could be lenient on his first try in a handicap

So onto my bets – these have been placed since decs were made on Friday – look out for those books offering extra places – some of the Betfair bets I will use to maybe trade in running

Squouateur £75 ew 14/1 5 places + £75 win Betfair 20/1
Forever Gold £15 ew 50/1 5 places + £10 win Betfair 75/1
Blessthewings £30 ew 33/1 4 places
Isleofhopendreams £35 ew 14/1 4 places
Kemboy £20 ew 33/1 4 places
Moulin A Vent £15 ew 33/1 5 places + £10 win Betfair 44/1

MARCH 20th 09.32

Long term bets to consider for fans of ‘request a bet’

Request a bet has changed the way we sports fans bet on sporting events. It is a superb idea and one which has seen many prescient fans win a great deal of money. How many of us have been watching a new footballer, or seeing an upcoming tennis player and thinking that you see something big in their future?

Having done that the obvious move is to head to a betting site and then place some money on that player reaching the top of their sport. However, previously, it would happen that it would turn out that there was no option to use your knowledge to win money.

The company would not want to look that far into the future and would be unwilling to place something up online. When betting was mostly done offline, you could go into a local shop and ask for odds on something. There are some famous examples, like a father betting on his son to play for Manchester United (and winning.) However these bets would often take forever to get ratified by the head office of the bookmaker whose shop you had popped into.

Now many companies offer the chance to do this quickly and easily. You can tweet them, you can call them and you can use their online live chat to request a bet on anything you like meaning you can put your knowledge to use and hopefully make some money from having a great eye for talent.

This has become particularly appealing in the modern age where there are lots of bookie free bets on offer, so you can put your prediction to the test without even using your own money. With a free bet you can have a flutter without having to put a single penny of your own money on it, it is absolutely ideal. This has made request a bet one of the most popular offering from online bookmakers and many people have made interesting and exciting bets.

To celebrate the fact that punters are being given more control than ever and the chance to take on the bookmakers at their own game, by creating their own market, here are some long term bets, one related to football another to tennis, you might want to consider. These are not bets which you will be winning anytime soon,you won’t be collecting your winnings in the upcoming weeks. But that is what makes them such fun bets, that they take time and patience and that makes the payoff amazing. So here are two top tips for long term bets that you should be considering.

Xavi Hernandez to win the Champions League as a coach

Under manager Pep Guardiola at Barcelona and Vicente Del Bosque at Spain, Xavi looked like a manager on the pitch, he would give orders, he would tell players where to move and he would look as if he was having and putting in place tactical ideas. It is clear that he will move into management as he has the temperament, the respect and the brain to do it. He was a magical player and was so successful that it would be a real shock if he couldn’t do the same as a coach. He is so clearly a long term choice for Barcelona, they will absolutely have him back as a coach and he will win the Champions league for them. This is a great and fun long term bet that should pay off sooner rather than later, as Xavi is clearly starting the transition into coaching.

Alexander Zverev to win a career Grand Slam

Zverev’s career has stalled a little, but he seems like the biggest talent of the upcoming group of next generation tennis players. He has already won ATP tour events and clearly has talent on every surface. When the big five of Murray, Federer, Djokovic, Nadal and Wawrinka, who have swept up all the slams before them retire, there will be a huge gap that needs filling and Zverev looks like he has the talent to do it. A career slam will be tough but it seems tough to work out who will be able to challenge him once the big guns are gone. It’s more risky than the Xavi bet, but it will likely have a much higher pay off.

february 27th 08.41

Matched free bets - Facts you should know

Matched free bet is the most commonly offered type of free bet to the new signups at online betting portals. Whenever a customer signs up, he must make a certain deposit in order to start placing active bets. This minimum deposit amount is normally around £ 5. Some bookies might keep it higher too. The free bet amount is determined based on this initial deposit.
Whenever a customer gets a free bet amount which is equal to his/her initial deposit, it is referred to as a matched free bet. So, if a customer opens an account at an online bookmaker after following a particularly juicy betting tip, and deposits £ 100 into it, he/she might get the same best free bets for Cheltenham from that online bookie. There is normally a lower and upper limit to these free bets, in the form of what minimum and maximum amount would get matched by the bookmaker. Majority of the bookies that offer such free bets place a time restriction on their usage as well.
Many times customers holding inactive accounts with online bookmakers are offered such matched free bets too, so as to encourage them to deposit and start betting again. For instance, if you have zero balance in your account with an X online bookmaker, and haven’t placed any bets for quite some time, you might get contacted by them with a proposal that if you deposit £ 50 into your account, they would match that amount with a free bet.

Matched free bets that are event-specific

Some online bookmakers might offer you free bets only when you bet on a certain specific events. For example, major televised sports events such as FIFA World Cup, Tennis Grand Slams etc. attract plenty of betting activity and hence bookies are sure that they’d be able to get maximum turnover from these events. Football betting in particular is a billion-dollar industry! Hence, these online bookies do aggressive television and press advertising for these events, giving an extra push to their matched free bet offers.

Bookies also offer such free bets on less popular events, in order to generate buzz around them. All such offers are normally event and time specific in nature.

Conditions associated with matched free bets

There are normally time limits placed on the duration for which these matched free bets would remain valid.
In the event that the bet turns out to be a winning one, the stake amount is not included in the return. The customer’s account would show the free bet as an amount separate from the regular account balance. The expiry of the free bet would automatically remove its existence from the customer’s account details.
In most cases, a free bet made available by a sports book can’t be used on the following website areas: bingo, poker and casino. It’s because these specific areas have their own free bet offers which can’t be used interchangeably.

Furthermore, a customer who avails a matched free bet offer, is not allowed to make any withdrawals before placing a bet. He/she won’t be able to withdraw the balance that constitutes the free bet amount.
In case the free bet has been used and turns out to be a winning bet, the winnings are normally shown in the account balance, with no restrictions on their withdrawals.

january 15th 13.45
No joy with the First Round Leaders so far this year - but after a few requests I have now added my trading thoughts on Betfair markets - it went rather well on week one of doing this - here is what was sent to subscribers
Webb Simpson
20 points ew 50/1 – 45/1 or even 40/1 OK
Enthusiasm is slightly tempered due to the fact that this is the first time Simpson tees it up having lost his Father in November
Round one form here reads 2/62/24/5/7/1/32/21
He has also played first time out in the Tournament of Champions three times in Hawaii with first round form of 2/15/1
Kelly Kraft
10 points ew 125/1 – Skybet are a standout 150/1
I think Kraft has huge potential and this may well be the season it comes to fruition
He co-led at Colonial last year after round one on a tight traditional track and his best finish came @ Pebble Beach on the coastal courses with small greens
His one win on the tour came in 2015 @ Le Triomphe – where it is worth noting Gomez, Wagner and Walker all won before winning this event
Extra Notes
I have backed Kelly Kraft @ 400 on Betfair – doesn’t need much more explanation than see above!
Xander Schauffele @ 50 on Betfair seems a bit on the large side considering he won the Tour Championship and Greenbrier in the second half of last year – both on traditional par 70 courses and the latter – Old White course was also designed by Seth Raynor who designed this weeks course
Finally – I have backed a couple of 100/1 + winners in this in the past and you could model winners quite easily - Basically you are looking for older, experienced shorter hitting pro's with a couple of wins under their belt who can plot their way round the course. Also look for those players who have plenty of course experience although top past finishes is not necessarily a priority a couple of low rounds is a plus. James Hahn fits that mould having never missed a cut in six attempts and a two time winner on tour – 250 on Betfair seems on the generous side
Brian Stuard has drifted to a backable 240 win on Betfair – he fits the profile and has been 5th and 6th here before
december 14th 23.32
I have never been one to second guess the intentions of a trainer - let alone one like Gordon Elliott - but I did so twice last year with Tiger Roll in the Munster National and the 4 mile chase at the Festival when it won both pulling double - was not seemingly fancied on either occasion but the money came big and late in both cases. So tomorrow it runs in the 3m 6f Cross Country Chae at Cheltenham on ideal ground - will it take to the course - who knows but basically it will either love it or hate it - if the former is the case it will romp home - big statement but I am second guessing here. I have a feeling the horse will love it - not really bothered about its run last time out on unsuitable ground a mile short of its best and I don't think Elliott will be sending it over just for a breath of fresh air. I admit the horse owes me nothing and I think it will one day make a National horse - but it does make mistakes and I think this is part of a long term goal - 10/1 e/w for me has to be a decent wager - gulp!

november 10th 09.43
Is The Current Popularity Of Cryptocurrencies Set To Grow With Sports Betting Implementation?

For those familiar with cryptocurrencies, the thought of their implementation in sports betting isn’t much of a surprise at all. In fact, it may even be something that they have been waiting for. But how new exactly are cryptocurrencies to sports betting? Is this truly a new thing, or is the spotlight only just shining on a long-standing industry?  Here, we’re looking closely at the current popularity of cryptocurrencies, and just how this popularity could grow with sports betting implementation.
Just how popular are cryptocurrencies?
So, the first thing we should probably work out is how popular cryptocurrencies even are. Are they a big thing that you must’ve been living under a rock to miss? Or are they an up-and-coming technology that you’d be forgiven for bypassing completely? Well, the truth is that they’re a little bit of both. For those that aren’t sure what a ‘cryptocurrency’ is, this term is given to any kind of digital currency used online and is the result of the first, and most famous cryptocurrency – Bitcoin. It’s likely that that term pricked a few more ears than ‘cryptocurrency.’ This particular cryptocurrency has taken the tech world by storm, and its popularity amongst online communities is undeniable. The worth of this digital currency currently sits at over £5,600 to 1 Bitcoin at the time of writing and is still rapidly climbing, which is quite the jump from the original worth - It didn’t even reach 50p in its first year or so!
This decentralised cryptocurrency gave and still gives users access to a digital currency that isn’t run or controlled by any central authority meaning it is, essentially, self-sufficient. Every bitcoin user has a record of how every bitcoin has ever been spent, giving control back to the users as opposed to a centralised system like a bank. Miners and spenders work together to ensure that the Blockchain – the technology from which Bitcoin works – keeps running smoothly and continues to protect the transactions for each user! Beyond bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies are growing in popularity too. The likes of Litecoin, Ethereum, Monero, Ripple and more are all creeping into the cryptocurrency industry, but none with quite the popularity of Bitcoin.
What have cryptocurrencies done for sports betting so far?
Cryptocurrencies are hardly a new concept in the world of betting, but the question remains as to why they’re being used, and what they are doing for the industry currently. Betting and gambling are two industries that bring mixed reactions all over the world. While some countries have legalised the industry to an extent, that are just as many, if not more, that have made such a pastime illegal. Due to the lack of jurisdiction over cryptocurrencies, online bitcoin sportsbooks have made it possible to partake in sports betting no matter where in the world you are.
Not only do these sportsbooks make it possible to play even in those countries that have made it illegal, they also give the opportunity for bettors to place their wagers as anonymously as possible. With this anonymity, there’s no need to provide personal information, and so there is an element of safety that can’t be provided with regular fiat currency sites. Sure, it can be difficult to find an odds calculator that can work out any potential winnings when you’re using a cryptocurrency that isn’t widely accepted, and a Bet Settler is even more difficult to use, but the safety, privacy and anonymity often win out against the use of the industry’s tools. Besides, with time, who knows what the industry could start to throw at cryptocurrencies?
With cryptocurrency bets come safe wagers, anonymity, and a separation from any jurisdiction that could’ve created a barrier in the past. Players can control their money better, deposit and withdraw whenever they want to with minimal fuss, and the low cost of transactions also draw in more and more bettors. Low fees give users more incentive to place bigger bets, which ultimately helps not only keep the bitcoin sports betting industry going, but keeps Bitcoin working too!
So you might be thinking ‘but if it isn’t well-known yet, what sports can you even bet on?’ and you’ll be happy to know that the answer to that question is ‘most of them’. In fact, you’ll probably find that any sport covered by regular sportsbooks will turn up on a bitcoin one too! You can bet on soccer, eSports, basketball, tennis, volleyball, handball, baseball… The list goes on. Even niche games and specials will crop up, so it’s well worth keeping an eye out!
Could cryptocurrency popularity grow in the future through sports betting?
So we’ve established that cryptocurrencies are growing in popularity, and that the effect of cryptocurrencies on sports betting is mostly good. But now we have to look to the future – could it continue to be good? Will both industries continue to support each other?
The speed and anonymity that cryptocurrencies provide – especially with Bitcoin – is pulling in more and more of an audience with each day that passes and with the rise in worth of Bitcoins growing just as rapidly, the sports betting industry is undergoing quite the revolution. Safety and security is something that everyone searches for when it comes to online betting, so is it any wonder that people are making the switch to one of the safety and most secure ways of payment that exists today? The lack of centralised authority gives cryptocurrency sports betting room to grow and expand in a way that regular betting sites just can’t. Transactions are visible to everyone while the person behind them remains anonymous aside from their wallet code, and with the rising value in these digital coins, the value of the industry is growing day by day. Imagine how much money could circulate if more people took part!
As far as the future of cryptocurrencies in sports betting goes, it’s difficult to predict just how big it could become, though things do look promising. Once written off as a black market currency, Bitcoin was followed by risk takers and watched by the cautious, but with new regulations and a bigger community, there’s no reason why the popularity of cryptocurrencies can continue to grow, and where better to do that than within sports betting?

november 7th 10.35
Well the Cork National certainly went to plan getting the 1st and 2nd @ 20/1 with Logical Song winning with a lot in hand.
Exeter is my local track and its their big meeting of the year today - sadly the weather isn't playing ball and I can see the going changing to soft - it is absolutely hosing it down. The 3.05 looks very competitive but I think a couple of the main protagonists may well struggle if the going changes. The one that really catches my eye is Castarnie. Its form on left handed tracks when chasing over 3 miles is poor 6/P/P but on a right handed track its a different animal - 1/2/2/F/1 with the first three of those being over course and distance
Admittedly it has to defy a career high mark today but it has gone well fresh before (2nd in this race last year) and trainer Robert Walford has won with his last two runners @ 11/1 and 20/1. At around 16/1 I reckon he is a cracking each way bet
november 5th 10.31
Cork National today - the 3.15 and I love a National and I don't see why two time winner Raz de Maree is 20/1 going for the the three timer. OK the horse is now 12 but still retains quite a bit of ability and was running a good race when falling for the first time in its career in the Munster National last time out.
There are two horses running for the first time in a handicap chase - something I always take note of especially when its a valuable prize. Logical Song has only its 5th outing over fences today and is also stepped up in trip but it always saw out 3 miles over hurdles well enough and is also generally a 20/1 shot.
The other one at the bottom of the weights in Une Lavandiere - carrying just 9 10 over 3 1/2 miles in the soft should help it a lot. Again only having its 5th run over fences it was beaten into 3rd on its last run by A Sizing Network - admittedly a comfortable looking 16 lengths but now has a 21 lb pull on that one - I don't see why one horse should be 6/1 and the other 20/1
october 18th 14.09
Some of you may well have noticed I haven't updated the results page for a while - well its part of a bit of a sea change for SBI. The whole site will shortly undergo a bit of a makeover due to changes in the industry I will no longer be promoting the multitude of bookmakers plying for trade as the affiliate marketplace changes - there will just be a few banners promoting a small number of bookmakers who don't change the rules.
I have been running the paid for tipping service since December and it has become even more apparent to me where my success lies. It has become harder and harder to be successful on the two main tours and I have just been treading water. So - after a long analysis of results over the last ten years - by reducing the number of bets and concentrating on certain markets it is still possible to make a nice profit. The results I have up on the tipping results page are just those using the minor tours and the first round leader markets. In the past this wasn't really possible with so few bookmakers offering prices - but this has changed and every week all books price up the first round leader market and 90% the tour and Champions Tour - other tours are a bit hit and miss but sometimes there are enough prices on offer. Also by waiting until a Wednesday to release bets when all books are up it is so much easier to get on at decent prices.
The price for these tips will remain as it has done since December - just £10 a month or £100 for a year - payments via Paypal to
Most of the features of the site - such as betting tools will remain in place as they are well used, please bear with me as things change over slowly

october 3rd 11.59
7 Things You Did Not Know About Baseball in Japan
It might come as a surprise to many of you, that baseball could very well be Japan’s national sport. Yes, Japan – the country on the other side of the Pacific, renowned for individualistic sports such as sumo or kendo, have a rather large soft spot for America’s home-grown, back lawn sport. Many of you will probably think that it all started with America’s occupation of Japan after World War II. You’d be horribly wrong. Baseball and Japan go way, way back, before even the turn of the century.
Here are seven things you did not know about the history and evolution of America’s pastime in the land of the rising sun.
It dates back to the Meiji Restoration Era
We’re talking here about the late 19th century, around 1872 to be more precise, when an American professor, who taught in what is today Tokyo University, taught the sport to his students. Horace Wilson’s teachings very soon caught on, despite it being difficult for them to understand the rules at first. Remember, this country’s national sport is Sumo, so you can appreciate how baseball was a different animal entirely. However, they seemed to have enjoyed it. It made the rounds of the country very quickly
It was considered a type of martial art
Feudal lords at the time considered baseball an American version of a martial art sport. It was therefore trained with great discipline, every single day, rain or shine. Entire games are still, in fact, played in heavy rain and even snow!
The American League Stars influenced the creation of a Nippon LeagueIn 1934, the American League Stars visited Japan, spear-headed by none other than stellar left-handed pitcher/outfielder Babe Ruth. This was around 60 years after Horace Wilson taught the game and the American team won each and every one of the 16 games it played against the All-Nippon stars. However, this gave the Japanese on the field a chance to see where their strengths and weaknesses lay and how best to improve on them. Very soon, Japanese businessmen and sportsmen quickly put their heads together and in 1936 the first professional league was formed and the first competitive game was played. The Japanese Professional Football League (later renamed to Central League) was made up of 7 teams, 4 of which are still present to this day.
Post War to this day - Baseball swells into a multi million industry
 (baseball in Japanese) only flourished post World War II, a period which had little to no effect on the Japanese’s interest in the sport. A second league, the Pacific League, was formed and Japan now had two circuits with six clubs each. Interest and demand kept growing steadily over the years, attracting millions of people to the stands and the screens, prompting fans to drop by merchandise shops to join in the spirit with caps and little trinkets, or the more adventurous to place a wager on a favourite baseball team (which incidentally, is gaining popularity across the whole of Asia). The local Izakaya where Japanese can enjoy an after-work drink while watching their favourite team play, teems with fans on match days. This phenomenon stirs more people every year into the heady, enthusiastic mix and people are willing to spend money to watch their team live, even if it means crossing the country. This should come as no surprise – Japanese players like Ichiro Suzuki, Hideko Matsui and Hideo Nomo are currently playing in America’s top baseball league, the MLB. This fact alone speaks volumes about Japan’s current level of playing and turns the whole industry, from tickets to merchandise to baseball punting, into a highly lucrative and profitable business.
Teams are owned by multi-million companies
Baseball teams in Japan are not independent entities. They belong to major corporations, like newspapers, railway companies, even candy and meat-packing companies! The teams act as a sort of PR arm for the mother company, a bridge between the corporate and the audience
American and Japanese styles are different
This is inherent in the culture. Just as some American players could not stand playing in Japan, so did the Japanese find the American style difficult to adjust to. In America, an umpire’s word is the gospel truth while in Japan, when there’s a difficult call to make, the umpire will discuss this with other officials. Despite the number of Americans whose contribution over recent years was significant to the development of Japanese players, the style remains distinctly their own. The crowd is also more restrained. The enthusiasm is palpable, but they will not trample over each other when a ball makes it over to them. They will simply hand it over to officials who reuse it. Talk about discipline.
The High School championship is followed by millions
While in America, this will only gather a crowd of a couple of hundreds (mostly relatives of the students playing), in Japan this is broadcast nationally and the Koshien stadium in Hyogo is full during the whole tournament. It really does seem that the Japanese cannot have enough of this sport.

The future of baseball in Japan is bright. While soccer is still very popular, it is more recent and therefore lacks the historical value of baseball or the die-hard loyal fans. Seeing the crowds at stadiums sweeping from Fukuoka to Hokkaido, you’d be forgiven for thinking that baseball is, in actual fact, a native sport. Isn’t it amazing to realise how, despite a war which ruined this country’s relationship with America, baseball helped to rebuild burnt bridges between them again? A game, might we add, which ironically enough knows its home on US soil.

june 9th 13.35
Not posted on the blog for a while but next week sees one of my favourite weeks of the year with the US Open which in 25 years of betting on golf has given me with my two biggest winning weeks ever providing me with two five figure wins.
In 2008 I had Rocco Mediate in what I call the Battle of Wounded Knee where somehow Woods managed to beat him. However having backed Mediate e/w outright and at huge prices without Woods and top American with and without Woods, plus laying in running all added up to a £14k profit on the week
2012 was nearly as good - this time Michael Thompson as a massive priced first round leader followed by each way and place prices and laying in running led to a £12k week
Bizarrely then I didn't back the eventual winner on each occasion but you don't always need to with so many markets available.
I have some interesting potential picks for next weeks Erin Hills renewal and you can join for just £10 which I will also extend it to cover up to the Open Championship - so 6 weeks worth
To join - simply send £10 via
Paypal to
Skrill to
april 20th 17.22
As you probably all know I love betting on marathons and below is what I sent to subscribers on Monday, obviously the price has been cut but if you have a Ladbrokes account their 12/1 still has a bit of value in it (they still have Biwott in their list!)

Well the news is probably filtering through as Betfair have a market up and B365 have scratched him – second favourite Stanley Biwott pulled out over a week ago

My pick is Ghirmay Ghebreslassie and I have somehow managed to get £80 ew at average odds of 20/1 – on my tissue he should be in single figures

In August 2015 aged just 19 he won the World Championships in China, his next marathon was London last year where he ran a PB to finish 4th and then went om to finish 4th @ the Rio Games

In November he became the youngest ever winner of the New York marathon with the third quickest winning time ever

I admit he will have to drastically reduce his fastest time to win on Sunday – but he is still young, knows how to win and has some vital course experience – the price is wrong imo

april 8th 09.53
This race has been good to me over the last nine years having backed Comply or Die @ 40/1 Pineau de Re 50/1 and last year Rule the World 50/1 and the 3rd Vics Canvas e/w at 100/1
Some would say it is a lottery but with the easier fences these days it is not so difficult to find a horse that will give you a big run for your money at a big price
I have been backing Raz de Maree since the end of the December and now have my biggest ever position on a horse to win a race
Whilst the horse is now 12 and maybe a little old it has relatively few miles on the clock having only run in 20 chases and this season has been in the form of its life
Before Christmas it won the Cork National for the second time in its career over 3 ½ miles and then was a strong finishing 2nd to Native River in the Welsh National and that horse went on to finish a very close 3rd in the Gold Cup
Raz was due to run in the Eider Chase but I am glad he didn’t go as 4 miles in heavy ground would have taken the edge off him – instead he had a nice prep run over hurdles
He is a solid jumper – has never fallen, he has been brought down once and unseated once when hampered and at the age of 8 jumped round here to finish 8th to Pineau de Re
I have no doubt he will stay the trip as he has also been 2nd in a Midlands National
Being a small horse he is not designed to carry big weights over extreme distances so 10 9 is a nice racing weight
There has been some concern over the ground – it is likely to be good to soft but he can run on good ground having won the Cork National on good. The trainer has said the softer the better but to be honest that is only to slow the other horses down as he can be tapped for pace. One thing for sure if he jumps round and stays out of trouble he will be staying on up the very long run in as he did in the Welsh National

march 24th 15.34
The US Masters is the first of the four Majors and in theory should be the easiest to predict and therefore bet on. The same course Augusta National is used at the same time of year and the field is set relatively early. It is also the smallest sized field of the Majors with only around 90 competitors and with some ageing past winners we can immediately dismiss. If you are looking to have a bet here are some Do’s and Don’ts to help guide you 
Don’t back any player who is a debutant at Augusta National - it is a well documented fact that Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 remains the only player to win on his first appearance. It comes as no great surprise as it is a course which a player needs to know before performing well on with so many nuances it is unlike any other golf course.
Don’t bet on the Par 3 contest which takes place on the Wednesday. To put it simply the field is unknown as not all Masters contenders play and there are various past champions and honorary invitees who take part. Also and most importantly you will often find players allow their five year old sons/daughters/nephews etc to putt out hence rendering their scores null and void.
Don’t bet on the winner of the par 3 contest - not one player has won on the Wednesday and gone on to win the full title on the Sunday. Padraig Harrington has to tell himself not to play well in the par 3 contest which he has won three times recently - he then might give himself another chance at a Major.
Don’t back defending champion Danny Willett unless you think he is a player of the highest calibre. The only players to win back to back so far are - Nicklaus 65/66 Faldo 89/90 Woods 01/02 so if you don’t think he belongs in such illustrious company give him a swerve.
Don’t back players who have passed their 40th birthday - the last seventeen winners have all been in their 20’s and 30’s. The last winner in his 40’s was Mark O’Meara back in 1998 and he was only 41 and was at the peak of his career winning the Open Championship later that year
Do make sure your player made the cut at last years Masters as all the winners bar one in the last twenty years made the cut at Augusta the year before. The only player to have missed the cut was Tiger Woods in 1996 so I guess that is one exception we can accept.
Do now wait until the week of the tournament to have a bet as bookmakers will offer greater value and enhanced place terms (ie top 6 or even 7) to attract new clients
Do check the weather - not just the forecast compared with tee times as to who might get the most favourable conditions such as wind strength but also look at what the weather has been like running up to the tournament. If it has been really wet and Augusta National is playing even longer than normal then you can rule out the shorter hitters.
Do bet in running - all bookmakers will be doing this through all four days but try and wait until your player is through the 12th hole. The reasons are fairly straightforward as the all time hardest holes are the 10th followed by the 12th and then the 11th . After that tough challenge things ease down a little as the 13th is the second easiest and the 15th the easiest.
Do look closely at Hole in One betting - Odds are normally around 10/11 Yes and 10/11 No so there will probably be value on a No bet. In 2004 Chris Dimarco and 2013 Jamie Donaldson both had an ace on the 6th hole but all the others in the last 20 years have been on the 16th and usually when the pin is in its Sunday position - so you will probably have to sweat things out - last year there were three on the final day!!

february 28th 09.10
Three Upcoming Sports Events That Will Bring In The Punters
Sports betting is a popular pastime and an active interest for some people. For others, it takes a big event to draw them to a game and excite them into making a bet. Here are three upcoming sports events that are sure to bring in the punters:
WGC Match Play
Part of the PGA Tour, the WGC Match Play takes place on the 22nd -26th March 2017, held at the Austin Country Club in Texas for the second year running. The match sees 64 of the top ranked golfers from around the world competing in a part round-robin part elimination tournament. Last year's purse was $9.5 million, and was scooped up by Jason Day. The WGC Match Play brings in punters looking for an exciting golf wager. It's not always the top ranked players that win. In 2002, Kevin Sunderland, ranked 64th, took first place. 
FA Cup Chelsea Vs Manchester United
Nothing gets the European punters going like a high-profile game between two top teams who have loyal supporters throughout many countries; Manchester United and Chelsea currently sit comfortably at the top of the Premier League. The two teams will clash in the FA cup Quarter final on Monday 13th March at Stamford Bridge. According to Betstars, Manchester United are the underdogs by quite a way in this match up, and we would agree that they are going to have a difficult time overcoming the top-form Chelsea team. Still, United are known for pulling it out of the bag when it matters, and might be worth supporting if the odds are right for it.
Cheltenham Gold Cup
Anyone who is fond of horse racing is getting excited for the Cheltenham Festival, the second biggest event after the Grand National. Of particular note is the Cheltenham Gold Cup, held on the 17th March 2017. The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 National Hunt steeplechase held over 3 miles and 2 ½ furlongs, and includes 22 fences. It is the most valuable non-handicapped steeplechase in Britain, and attracts a huge audience of fans and punters. Favorites to win include Native River and Cue Card, but there are some great opportunities to scout for a decent 100/1 punt, or a viable 20/1 option.
March brings many great sporting events that are worthy of an enjoyable bet or two. Stick around to see tips and tricks from SBI.

february 7th 16.20
Those of you who have followed me for long enough know I like to find hidden course form when looking for selections to bet on – in the past it has led me to have big wins with Michael Thompson in the US Open, Oberholser and Points in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am (more on that later) and most recently Bezuidenhout in South Africa and of course our 200/1 winner Jim Renner
Hidden course form has led me to two of my three picks in Malaysia this week.
Plenty of time to get tips
Paypal £10 a month £100 a year to
Skrill £10 a month £100 a year to

january 30th 12.53
Well we came close to landing another big win on Lagergren last week - a nice place return and a bit more by trading on Betfair, here's what I wrote for subscribers
£15 ew 150/1 1/5 7 – that’s with Coral but quite a few are doing enhanced places
£10 ew 150/1 1/5 6 Boyles
£10 win 195 average Betfair
Links players thrive around Doha and Lagergren is a decent links player having finished 4th in each of the last two renewals of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship
Add in a 5th on the exposed Himmerland track last year and a 6th at Bro Hof Slott a few years back and it would appear the track in theory should suit and 30/1 for a top 6/7 finish seems pretty generous
january 13th 14.08
A quick update on the figures so far for subscribers as we are now a month into the service if you had followed all advice to the pound
Total staked £1440
Total profit £2260
ROI 56.7%
Quite pleased with that for £100 for the year or £10 a month - full results here
january 2nd 18.34
As you may have gathered from Twitter tips from SBI are now subscription only and I have already sent out the first golf bet of 2017.
Things have got off to a pretty good start with a winner @ 200/1 in the Q School - here is what I said about winner Jim Renner and Kyle Wilshire
"In the pressure cooker atmosphere it is best not to get carried away as what they are really competing for is their card but these two have a little to offer.
Both players come from Orlando and will be sleeping in their own beds which can take a certain amount of pressure off
Both have also exhibited some form in past Q Schools around the two courses used this week, in 2010 Renner gained his PGA tour card in the 6 round PGA Q School marathon. A bit more recently Wilshire gained his Canadian Tour card in the Florida section held here when 4th in April 2015"
You also get my horse racing bets where I concentrate on staying handicap chasers - we have just about broken even so far, close to being a lot better with Raz de Maree 2nd in the Welsh National @ 50/1 ew. We were also a tad unfortunate with Minella Daddy - a decent bet at 12/10/9 - sent off 9/2 favourite in the end it hit 1/5 in running before being impeded at the last by a loose horse but managing to place
Subscriptions are £100 for the year or £10 a month - payment via Paypal to
december 12th 09.03
Well what a week to start a subscription service as we bag a 200/1 comfortable winner in the Q School with Jim Renner. There are a few small golf events over the next few weeks - who knows who will price them up! But there are plenty of long distance staying chases to get stuck into including the Welsh National. I will put up a results sheet showing P&L for subscription tips over the next few days.
In the meantime if you want to join it's £100 until the end of 2017 or £10 a month - payments via Paypal to or contact me for bank transfers
december 5th 10.03
There comes a time in life when things have to change and we have to move on and do things differently. Due to a complete change in circumstances and the fact that the affiliate earnings have fallen off a cliff I can no longer do things for free. All I am asking for is £100 for my musings and ramblings until the end of 2017 - the equivalent of less than £2 a week - the cost of some Sunday papers! For that you will get the golf bets I normally put up (and the ones I keep to myself) plus any decent horse bets - bear in mind I have only put up three horses on the blog this year WON 50/1, 3rd 100/1, WON 33/1.
I am sorry it has come to this but with most bookmaker accounts now closed or limited to nothing it has to be my way forward.
If you wish to subscribe then simply send £100 via Paypal to
november 30th 14.54
Whilst there are loads of tournaments on this week I have struggled to get excited about much with many short priced favourites. Coceres has started off well in the Champions Tour Q School - lets hope maybe one of these three can emulate him
Australian PGA Championship
Jordan Zunic is a promising young player and we have had a couple of upsets in recent years in this event with big priced young Aussies winning. He was a talented amateur winning the Chinese Amateur and won the New Zealand Open soon after turning pro in March last year. He added to that victory a few months ago in a smaller Australian Tour event and has maintained a strong level of form since that win. He was 9th here last year when in a similar vein of form and I think he's overpriced £25 win 240 £25 top 5 45/1 £40 top 10 17/1
The other pick is very much left field but I have been waiting for the talented Jin Jeong to recover from injury and there have been a few hints of late. In the New South Wales Open he shot his first round in the 60's since February and then in the Australian Open made the cut for the first time since playing here two years ago! en route to a 28th. The talented young Korean won the Amateur Championship and other big events before he turned pro and won the Perth International. It has been an horrendous journey over the last few years but he has persevered and he maybe inspired back here where he led after the opening round in 2014 (and that came from a late tee time) Its speculative but worth a small crack £5 ew 750/1 £5 top 5 150/1 £10 top 10 50/1 £5 ew 250/1 FRL
Alfred Dunhill Championship
The second co-sanctioned European tour event comes from South Africa this week and Charl Schwartzel is a worthy short priced favourite. I also really like Gregory Bourdy but he is a short price considering he hasn't won for 3 1/2 years - maybe in running? Anthony Michael caught my eye at a big price considering he was 2nd here on his debut in 2010 where he led through three rounds, he has only played here once since - the following year where he opened with an 80 but his second round 68 shows he likes the course. In his last start in a co-sanctioned event he was 3rd in the Tshwane Open in February so he isn't afraid of the bigger fields. He is quite often a fast starter so I have played him in that market as well
£20 win 300 £16 ew 250/1 £10 top 5 40/1 £15 ew 125/1 FRL
november 23rd 14.53
We came close with Dubuisson last week who traded as low as 5/2 in the DP World Tour Championship and at least we got a part place payout although even that looked in doubt when he drove into the hazard on the 72nd hole - visions of Ross Fisher a few weeks ago! On the PGA tour we got in running pick Schneiderjans into a nice top 10 payout. This week is really quiet with only two bets although one is strong
World Cup of Golf
Not an event to get carried away with - I just thought that France looked a bit overpriced with Dubuisson in good form at the moment. He has picked friend and great young talent Romaine Langasque who in theory should be suited to the course having won the Amateur Championship at Carnoustie last year. They may have a point to prove with Dubuisson having overlooked more experienced players in choosing his partner. £20 ew 40/1 + £20 55 Betfair
Cape Town Open
I have had a decent bet on 2014 champion Jaco Ahlers but before going into details I would like to explain why I think he should be favourite by looking at the players around him at the top of the market.
Defending champion Brandon Stone is favourite and clearly has the pressure of defending his first title. He is in poor form having missed the cut in his last appearance in a weak South African event and having finished second to last in his last two European tour events
Christian Bezuidenhout did finally win an event when we were on recently at 33/1 - I cannot see any value in quotes of 20/1 in an event which is much stronger.
Jaques Blaauw has only won one event at home in the past three years and likewise Danie Van Tonder has only two wins in his last 111 starts at home and the last one was two and a half years ago.
So we come to Ahlers - he has won three of his last six events at home in South Africa. He has been a bit of a late developer but has won three four round events at home including this event two years ago, then the Investec Cup last year and the Zambia Open - these tend to be stronger events than the three rounders. He played well again here last year when 8th defending his title. He has the added bonus of just gaining his full European Tour card a few weeks ago so will be in a positive mood. All in all when you consider his rivals and his winning form I make him a strong bet even at the short price £75 ew 20/1 + £10 23/1 Betfair

november 18th 10.45 Sponsored Post

The Sports With The Best Payouts

Betting on sports is a time-honored past-time. Whether you're in a local club or you play casino games at Royal Vegas, you can make a little extra cash by picking winners. Below are the sports that tend to have the best pay-outs.

Horse Racing
Horse racing is one of those sports that seems designed for betting. While it's usually the subject of a few dollars for most of the year, the vaunted Triple Crown will pull in millions of dollars of speculation. Those going for the exotics in a horse race - the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta - can make a tremendous amount of money. How tremendous? A two-dollar superfecta bet can easily become fifty thousand dollars depending on the horses involved. Horse racing payouts are legendarily huge, and it's definitely a sport at which you should throw a few dollars if you enjoy gambling.

American Football
American football betting is usually covered in friendly wagers - at least, during the regular season. Once the playoffs hit, though, you'll start looking at increasingly high payouts. Once you get to the Superbowl, though, betting becomes less of a friendly past-time and more of a life-altering proposition. Millions of dollars change hands during the big game, with certain portions of the money changing over issues as trivial as the initial coin toss. When it comes to money spent on a single yearly event, there's not a sport out there that can touch American Football.

Soccer is serious business in many parts of the world. The reason soccer has major payouts, though, has less to do with the day-to-day games (which can be profitable) and more to do with the various major events. Major international events like the World Cup don't just draw in vistors from around the world, but they also draw in a fantastic amount of money when betting. If you play the long odds on a team that actually goes the distance, you'll make more money than you can imagine. It's never a sure thing, of course, but soccer definitely pulls in the big money.

For all the issues revolving around combat sports, nothing gets people to part with their money faster than boxing. Boxing's big money events have multi-million dollar purses, and it often seems like more money is bet than the fighters can ever hope to make. Boxing features huge payouts because of the way odds work - there's money to be made not be figuring out who will win, but by figuring out the how and the win. It's easy to part with your money if you aren't familiar with the sport, but a good bit of research and a gut feeling can make you money.

There are many sports out there than can lead to major payouts. While most people will never get that giant jackpot, there's enough money changing hands that anyone can end up a winner. If you want to
november 18th 08.55
I have been doing this blog and website for many years now - why do I do it - well to make people a few quid, share my knowledge and have a bit of fun along the way and I hope I have done that. I can't remember the last time I put anything personal on here but yesterday was one of those days I will remember that prove to me we can all fight. I back golfers to win money but I am realistic that in the lower echelons of the game it is tough. This week I bet on Richard McEvoy at the Q School and yesterday saw the fall down the leaderboard from comfortably retaining his card to struggling for his livelihood - and boy did he have to fight. To me it was a few quid - to him it meant he could support his family for another year and thats something we often forget - there is a world of difference between him and the big names in the sport.
On a more personal note I have lost a lot this year and yesterday thought I was losing my dear old lurcher who was struck down by pancreatitis. Now I know she isn't out of the woods yet but again - boy did she fight. The brave old soul was telling me she isn't about to leave me just yet. So there we have it - everything is worth fighting for and anything is possible even in the darkest of times
Thanks for reading
november 9th 14.51
Will be quite a brief write-up today as spending more and more time on the staying chasers at the moment!
Manila Masters
A few of you may remember me putting up Mardan Mamat when he won this two years ago @ 200/1 - the basis of that bet was that he had a top five on the course, and had won in the Philippines at the Wack Wack course before. Richard T Lee fits the fill on both counts - his one win came at the Country Club in the Philippines in 2014, he was 2nd at the Wack Wack Club in 2013 and was 3rd on this course that year as well. His current form isn't exceptional but he may have struggled with his globetrotting although he was in contention at Crans and was 10th in the Lyoness Open on the European Tour which would read well in this field. Returning to a place he clearly feels comfortable he is worth a bet @ 100/1 £25 ew
Nedbank Golf Challenge
After a couple of frustrating weeks on the European Tour with Fisher and Manassero I have only had one bet in the Nedbank. It is purely a play on price along with the theory that Scott Hend should be suited to the course. How this big hitter, multi tournament winner can be the same price as players who rarely win is a bit odd £12.50 ew 100/1 (all I could get) + £25 win 110 Betfair
OHL Classic
One of the events on the PGA tour I enjoy betting on - mainly due to success in the past as the winners are generally easier to profile. Mayakoba suits the shorter hitting older player with form at certain other similar courses
Past champion Johnson Wagner has a few other good finishes here including an 8th last year. He also has a victory at similar Waialae and is definitely a horses for courses player. The fact that he has three top five finishes in his last six starts including a 2nd on his penultimate start so to me he is a no brainer bet this week £5 ew 66/1 + £50 win 70 Betfair + £50 top 5 12/1
Fabian Gomez might not have brilliant course form but he has wins at Waialae and Southwind - both important correlating courses Overall he has a great winning strike rate and is overpriced at three figures £25 ew 125/1
I will also have a bet in the first round leader market - whilst I don't think there is any value in Shaun Stefani in the outright market he has kicked off here in two visits with a 65 and 66 to lie tied 1st and t7th - in the latter he was one shot behind six players. He led at Southwind last year and shot a pair of 66's last week to show he is in the mood to go low £20 ew 80/1
november 6th 08.36
Its the turn of Cork today to have its National - Gordon Elliot has been farming these big staying handicap chases of late but I don’t really fancy any of his runners for this, and whilst most of the winners of the Cork National have been young I can still see 11 year old As de Pique running a big race. Two years ago Vics Canvas won this as an 11 year old and As de Pique has a similar profile with not many miles on the clock – he didn’t really start racing til 18 months ago.
Last years winner Tulsa Jack and the 2008 winner both won the Byrne Marquees Handicap Chase at Gowran which As de Pique won last time out
The key to the selection is the ground and he is a much better horse on good ground – his form on this ground reads 2/1/1/UR/2/3/1/4 – he placed or won in every race and I can forgive the unseated rider as his rider lost his irons
Whist the trip is 2 ½ furlongs further than he has won over before he has won both his races over an extended three miles and always seems to be staying on at the end 12/1 each way
november 2nd 11.59
I think Ross Fisher and the 72nd hole at Sheshan will haunt me for a while - thats twice now! Anyway - onto this week - not much interest from me before the kick off so keep an eye on Twitter for in running bets.
Turkish Airlines Open
Just as we get used to a course they change it again - this time its the Peter Thompson designed Carya course - apparently he has created a heathland style course reminiscent of Walton Heath, Sunningdale or even Wentworth - by planting one million heathers - we shall see. Of course we have plenty of Wentworth form but as for the other two we have to look at US Open and Open qualifying for any wothwhile course form. Gregory Bourdy may be worth a bet due to the fact he has been 1st and 3rd at Walton Heath in recent years and four times has made it to the US Open via Sunningdale. As a four time winner on tour he knows how to get the job done and though his recent form doesn't look great over the past three months he leads the total driving and ball striking stats on tour - that could be key this week £11 ew 90/1 + £25 ew 80/1
If this is to be compared to Wentworth then I feel obliged to have a small bet on Matteo Manassero. Another player with four tour wins, I think we often forget he is still only 23 and has somewhat lost his way but at 175/1 he has to be worth a small punt in a reduced field lacking some top names £20 ew + £10 230 Betfair
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
Just a couple of bets from an interesting angle that may well not pan out! Seven of the last winners of this event were recording their first PGA tour win and until young Kaufman came along last year the past nine winners were aged from 26 to 32. One interesting little snippet is that the last two winners had both won at the Victoria National course on the tour.
This is why I was drawn to Seamus Power who is the right age and won at Victoria National this year (beating last weeks winner Cody Gribble down the stretch - surely inspiration there!) All of the last ten winners have been American bar one - Martin Laird who played his college golf in the States and then stayed there - much the same as Power. He showed up well for two rounds last week and can only have learnt from the experience £20 ew 200/1 + £5 250 Betfair
Greg Owen doesn't fit the age criteria but did win that event in 2014. His fine tied 2nd last week will go a long way to securing his status on tour which is only conditional and whilst his course form is patchy he has shot some low rounds around Summerlin £25 ew 150/1 + £10 240 average
LPGA Japan Classic
A rare foray into the ladies golf where the LPGA players take on the Japanese regulars and there may well be an upset like last year where local tour players finished 1st and tied 2nd. Ji-Hee Lee was the player who was tied 2nd last year albeit on a different course and this year is 3rd on the local money list with two wins and two runner-up slots - including last week. I just think there is a bit of value in the 100/1 price tag £20 ew
october 26th 11.58
The HSBC Champions event has fond memories for me with Yang giving me one of my biggest ever payouts a few years ago and managing to trade Fisher at 1.01 as well - although a win would have been preferable!
Ross Fisher is on my team this week as he comes here in superb form with 2nd place finishes in both the Dunhill Links and European Open and I think he can be forgiven a rather lacklustre effort in the British Masters after coming close to victory in consecutive events. He finished 3rd in this last year when in poor form adding to a strong history of form in China - one word of warning - be prepared to trade on the back nine on Sunday if in contention! £30 ew 100/1 + £15 100 Betfair
My other pick is Alex Levy who is also in terrific form with recent finishes of 7/1/c/4 and who returns to a country where he always seems to play well. In eight starts in China he has been 1/2/3/4 and states that the courses simply suit his game. He played here in 2014 and after a slow start played as well as anyone to climb to 14th so this course suits his eye as well. Admittedly the weather forecast doesn't look great which might not necessarily suit Levy but everybody has to cope and the prices were just too big. £25 ew 100/1 + £20 110 + £20 ew 125/1
On the PGA Tour we have the Sandersons Farms Championship which is always a weak field "opposite" event and is played for the third time at the Jackson course. The last two winners have similar profiles in that they were 26 and 28, had come off the tour and the key stat was that they both hit a lot of GIR on the week. I trawled through the field and came up with 26 year old JJ Spaun who won the Canadian Tour order of merit in 2014 and continued that fine form onto the tour last season. He had a win and two runner-up slots as well as four other top tens to easily secure his PGA tour card. The key to his success were his GIR stats finishing 2nd on that tour in that category. One thing I found noteworthy was that his win came at Fox Den - a course where hitting greens is important. Last years winner Malnati has won at Fox Den and Kizzire who finished 4th in this won at Fox Den last year. Take the hints and have a decent bet £50 ew 80/1
october 25th 15.35
I will quickly get out of the way the two events that start early tomorrow (Wednesday) morning
Sun Sibaya Challenge
I will take a chance on young Jared Harvey who hasn't really fulfilled the potential when winning the South African amateur strokeplay around this weeks course Mt Edgecombe back in 2011. That week he beat the likes of Stone, Porteous and even Levy so obvioulsy has the game. He showed a decent enough level of form when 7th a couple weeks ago and hope the course will inspire him this week £20 ew 70/1
Ras Al Khaimah Golf Challenge
The Challenge tour moves to the UAE this week and I will chance another young South African Thriston Lawrence although his current level of form is poor. The reason for picking him is that last year he won the Mena Golf Tour order of merit - a local tour around the Middle East and Africa although the level of form is pretty poor. Lawrence won one event last year on that tour and that was named the Ras Al Khaimah Golf Challenge although it was played on a different course. He should have positive memories of the area and does have a 2nd on the Challenge Tour earlier this year despite being twelve shots behind winner Detry! £10 win 485/1 £15 top 5 80/1
october 19th 15.03
Nice to get another winner on board last week in South Africa - so lets hope we can keep the good run going
CIMB Classic
It's not often I can see value in short priced golfers but this week Ryan Moore appeals in a big way. He is certainly in as good shape as anyone else at the top of the market and comes to a course where he won back to back - what is there not to like? He has shown over the years that he plays the same courses well year in year out and especially at this time of year £75 ew 16/1
Alex Cejka seems like a big price to me - he fired a pair of 66's here last year to finish 17th on his course debut and if you go back far enough he obviously likes golf in Malaysia having finished 2nd and 3rd in the Malaysian Open. He has had a very consistent season and took a break after the Olympics returning to play in Macau last week so will already be acclimatised to conditions. He is well known for getting off to fast starts so I have backed him in that market as well £15 win 210 £25 top 5 25/1, £15 ew 80/1 FRL
Portugal Masters
I admit to struggling to find much for this weeks European tour event so will probably end up backing in running but a couple looked worth a bet. Adrian Otaegui has come close a couple of times to his first pro win in the past five months with a 3rd in Denmark and 2nd in Austria. He shot a solid 63 in the opening round in 2014 in the rain shortened event and a pair of 67's in 2015 so can certainly go low on the course £30 ew 150/1
Stuart Manley has a fondness for Portugal - maybe something to do with being inspired by Wales winning the World Cup of Golf at this venue. I doubt he will have a really top finish but is well worth backing in the first round leader market. In ten starts in mainland Portugal he led here on his first start in 2008 and has been 1st, 3rd and 4th after round one in events at Estoril. £15 ew 160/1 average
Vodacom Origins Euphoria
Justin Harding has five wins on this tour in just over 150 starts including one at the beginning of this month. He was 7th on his debut and only start here in 2014 when leading after round one. Three of his five wins have come in these Vodacom Origins events so it seems to be his level £8 ew 50/1 £25 win 50/1
october 12th 22.19
Safeway Open
Sometimes you stare at a price and can't quite believe it and in a strange way it detracts from having a bigger bet than you should. With James Hahn this week I am definitely more in the Betfred camp who go 55/1.Courses I would associate with Silverado are unsurprisingly another classic Californian course Riviera and Las Colinas home of the Byron Nelson and Hahn definitely has form at both venues. He now has two wins in the last twenty months although he can be a bit hit and miss. He finished 5th in his penultimate start in the playoffsand will be right at home in Northern California where he grew up. His course form isn't that bad in his two starts with a few low rounds including the lowest on day two last year, which is not unusual for him - he can swing from low to high with his scores. Maybe all this is built into his price but in my eyes it is all wrong £25 ew 150/1, £10 win 125/1, £20 top 5 25/1, £10 ew 100/1 FRL
My only other bet is Jhonattan Vegas who has been incredibly consistent since his win in Canada with all cuts made. He played here last year on a sponsors exemption having lost his card and in a way it kickstarted his revival from injury having finished 10th and 4th a few weeks later. His first PGA win came in California so is clearly at home in ths state and is well worth having on side this week £40 ew 66/1
october 12th 14.36
Well I certainly love a National even more now as Tiger Roll absolutely hosed up at Limerick at 33/1. Anyway - back to the golf!
Macau Open
I wasn't going to get involved but one player caught my eye, the Macau course is certainly a horses for courses place and Rashid Khan was 8th on his debut last year. Form at Delhi holds up well here and the Indian native has finishes of 1/2/4/6 in the last 3 years there. His other Asian win was at the Alpine course in Thailand where Hend won the year before and Hend has finished 6/1/2/1 in Macau in the last four years. On first glance it doesn't look like he has played a great deal but he has been playing superbly on the Indian tour in the last 6 weeks finishing 1/4/1. Well worth a bet to upset some of the big boys £30 ew 70/1
British Masters
Always a bit tough using a course that has only been used once before for a very different WGC event ten years ago so haven't gone mad this week
Romain Wattell caught my eye last week - opening with a 78 on the tough Carnoustie course he was more or less last but three rounds of 66/68/66 saw him climb to an impressive 18th. Like Hatton the young Frenchman has often promised a breakthrough win and a reapeat of his 4th at Wentworth earlier this year should see him go close £30 ew 100/1 + £10 100 Betfair
Another Frenchman Gregory Havret did something very similar last week - opening with a 76 at Carnoustie he too climbed to 18th for his best ever finish at the Dunhill Links. Add that to a 7th at the European Open the week before then he is clearly in good form. He can often string a few good finishes together so £25 ew 140/1 + £10 160 Betfair
Final bet on price alone is Kiradech Aphibarnrat who now has three wins on the European Tour in the past few years and it's not like he has had a bad year so far with the highlights being 15th in the Masters and a pair of fifth places at the BMW International and the Olympics. Just a play on the price really £20 ew 100/1 + £5 95
october 9th 11.31
Well you all know I love a National!! TBH I may well be barking up the wrong tree but Tiger Roll caught my eye for the Munster National 4.40 Limerick today.
It may seem odd to back the outsider of the field but in Tiger Roll Gordon Elliott could well have an unexposed horse
The last ten runnings of this race have gone to horses aged 6 – 8 and those at the higher end of the weights fare better so it fits those trends.
Tiger Roll obviously has a bit of class about it having won the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival in 2014.
Switched to chasing earlier this year he won his first two and has been kept busy ever since but this is the first time he has been run in a handicap.
In his last three runs over around 2 ½ miles he has been staying on suggesting a step up in trip could well be in his favour.
Originally I was bemused by the jockey booking but Miss O’Neill won the Kerry National a few weeks ago for the same connections on Wrath of Titans who was backed into 7/1 on the day from 16/1. Elliott did a similar thing earlier this year putting an unheralded claimer on Lord Scoundrel when it won the Galway Plate
At 33/1 e/w doesn't take a lot to find out!
october 6th 07.20
With the Tour Championship cancelled we only have bets in two other events! Starting with the Alfred Dunhill Links
Mikko Ilonen - when I saw the opening price I thought it was a rick but then other books followed suit so it was time to dive in. Admittedly his record in the event is poor but he is a fine links player - maybe he doesn't like the pro-am format. His current form isn't too bad just not put 4 rds together of late, he led the French Open at the cut, was 7th at the Olympics with a round to go and was 4th at Crans with a round to go and is putting really well. It was merely a scramble to get on what I could £20 ew 550/1 average £5 ew 250/1 FRL £5 top 10 40/1 £2.50 ew top Cont Euro 100/1
Chris Stroud came here last year as a tournament invite and on the back of four missed cuts on the PGA tour managed to finish 2nd. He is in equally poor form this time around but has shown in his career he plays the same courses well year in year out £20 ew 250/1 average £5 win 250 Betfair
Matthew Southgate has been talking up his game for a while now and this could be the venue when it all comes together. A solid links player who was 12th in the Open and won the St Andrews Links Trophy as an amateur. I have a feeling his happy demeanour on the golf course will also be well suited to the pro-am format £20 ew 150/1 £40 200 Betfair
Last man up is Florian Fritsch who has been in good form of late as he tries to secure his card in what will always be a limited number of events as he won't get on a plane. His 7th in Crans was a repeat of last years finish whilst he seemed to feel the pressure early on in the final round in Germany playing alongside Kaymer and Wiesberger before rallying to finish 7th. His 19th place here last year was pretty good and it may have escaped some people he was actually 2nd with a round to go £20 win 200 £40 top 10 11.5/1
I make no excuses for backing Esteban Toledo again in the Champions Tour Toshiba Classic as in 94 starts he has four wins and a 10.6% top 5 strike rate. His last two wins have been in California and Florida so he seems to like the beach environment and he has some solid form around here with a best of 6th in three attempts £20 ew 150/1
october 5th 14.25
It's been a pretty good couple of weeks and this week is really busy so will kick off with a look at the events which start later today
Fiji International
A strange event with a couple of Americans playing and it's co-sanctioned by the European Tour yet virtually no players have made the trip from Europe, basically it's a glorified Australian Tour event. I will have a bet on rank outsider Peter A Wilson who managed to finish 8th here last year. The basis of the bet is that Wilson seems to play his best at this time of year having come back from his "winter" break with a few starts under his belt. In 160 starts he has one win, 3.1% top 5 rate and 8.1% top 10. When you look at his October starts we find that win a 13.3% top 5 and 33.3% top 10. His two starts at the New Caldeonia event have been 42nd followed by an 8th and 43rd followed by his win, last time out he was 15th in that event after a great first three rounds. Don't get me wrong - he is not top class but this event is pretty poor £10 ew 400/1 £10 top 5 80/1 £20 top 10 33/1
Indonesian Masters
Looking back at past results at Royale Jakarta the one thing that stands out is that players with high GIR stats always lead the way so it seems prudent to back the player who leads that category on the Asian Tour. Malcolm Kokocinski hits 75% of greens and was 4th last time out in Korea £15 ew 125/1
LPGA Taiwan Fubon Championship
Local players seem to play well in Taiwan with Lu winning on the Asian Tour last week in his homeland for the third time. Ssu-Chia Chang is a young player with lots of potential although she has struggled on the main tour this year - a return home could well play dividends. She won in China on the LET in 2014 as an amateur and was 2nd and 4th in that country on that tour last year. In 2013 and 2014 she won three times in Taiwan as an amateur on the Ladies Asian Tour. Two years ago she opened with a 66 here to lie 3rd before fading to 15th so can clearly play the course. I think she may surprise this week £10 ew 400/1
september 21st 20.35
Apologies - run out of time this week so a very quick rundown of bets
Tour Championship
Ryan Moore - don't like limited field events but Moore seems a big price for a player that won again not a long time ago and has a pair of top tens in two of the play-off events. Course form of 9th and 3rd further boosts confidence £25 ew 50/1
Porsche European Open
The course is saturated and big hitters came to the fore last year so should do again. They don't come much bigger than Lucas Bjerregaard who was 5th here last year. He is slowly coming into form and often plays the same courses well £30 ew 60/1 £15 win 70 £25 top 5 12/1
I will stick with Jens Fahrbring again at a big price as he played quite well again last week. Whilst he didn't play here last year he did play the course for three years on the Challenge Tour and finished 6th and 12th in the last two renewals £15 ew 400/1 £20 win 660 £10 top 10 40/1
With wins for Molinari and Luiten in recent weeks in home events I was keen to get a home player on side and Bernd Ritthammer caught my eye. He has won twice on the Challenge Tour this season including last time out. Whilst he missed the cut last year after a promising opening round he was 3rd here on the lower tour in 2014. £6.50 ew 150/1 6 places £10 ew 100/1 £15 155 average
Nationwide Childrens Hospital Open
This event has been part of the play-off series for the past three years and the winners have all exhibited two attributes - you have to be long and make plenty of birdies. Grayson Murray ranks 6th for Driving Distance and 1st for Birdies - he also tops the all round stats much like last years winner Justin Thomas. Whilst he hasn't yet won on tour he seems to knock on the door most weeks £30 ew 50/1
september 14th 14.29
Concentrating on the Italian Open this week although I may have something for the Boise Open later.
Whilst the Italian Open moves around a bit it does generally get played on similar fiddly parkland tracks where plenty of birdies are required and where multiple winners are commonplace.
Julien Quesne stood out like a sore thumb to me at the early prices as a past winner of the event and he often gives strong signals that he is about to win so his 5th last time out is an encouraging sign. He ranks 4th on tour for birdies over the last three months so the 90/1 had to be snapped up £40 ew 1/4 6
Joakim Lagergren ranks third in that same category and I was really impressed by the way he played in Denmark (until the drive at the 72nd hole!) but he did enough to secure his card. Last year he closed with a 63 around the Milano course to finish 3rd and people have overlooked the fact that he was 2nd and one shot behind in the Italian Open in 2013 before fading - he is a much better player now. That 63 proves he can go low here and has got off to a couple of fast starts in recent weeks - joint leading in Denmark and 2nd in the KLM last week so I have included a bet in that market as well. £25 ew 125/1 £15 ew 100/1 FRL
Sticking with the birdie stat Brandon Stone lies 6th in that category and whilst his form in some of the bigger events has been poor he is well capable in this grade. A 5th place in the French Open, 10th last week and a string of excellent efforts earlier in the year including a win in his home Open show the youngster is more than capable. South Africans have a pretty good record in this event mainly because the courses are similar to the parkland courses they play at home. Earlier in the year he was going off at much shorter prices and has to be backed this week £30 ew 80/1
One play from "leftfield" is Jens Fahbring who has had a torrid time of it on the main tour this year but finally earnt some money last week. He was 3rd here last year and maybe he can produce another great effort to regain his card - at the price he is worth a poke £10 ew 400/1 + £20 1000 Betfair
september 7th 23.29
A quick rundown of this weeks limited bets
KLM Open
Fabrizio Zanotti - whilst it's a new course it is still a typical linksy course for the KLM Open and I wwant to go with a player who has history in this event and Zanotti has been 2nd and 4th n this event on two different courses so shouldn't be phased this week. He can certainly play links courses as demonstrated here and a fine 2nd at Royal Portrush a few years back. He has been in fine form for a while and may well draw inspiration from fellow Paraguayan Franco winning on the Champions Tour on Sunday. £15 ew 66/1 6 places £35 ew 66/1 5 places £20 win 70 Betfair
Alex Levy - been troubled with injury this year but if last weeks result is anything to go by he is back. He finished 18th at Crans on a track he had always missed the cut.Not sure how he will take to the course but he is too big a price £30 ew 70/1
DAP Championship
Always tricky when a new course is used but it's time to use a few little tactics which sometimes pay off!
Adam Svensson hasn't kicked on this season but he has a great asset this week in his caddie who grew up on this golf course and will have vital inside information £15 ew 150/1 £15 top 10 12/1
For Ryan Armour you couldn't have a more local game and it may well be conjecture but I would be surprised if he hasn't played Canterbury before. The last time he played close to home he was 4th in the Cleveland Open so there is definitely a bit of historical evidence. He finally won on tour this year just before his 40th birthday and a fairly consistent season means he already has a PGA tour card locked up so won't have the pressure of most players £20 ew 200/1 £20 top 10 20/1
august 31st 13.52
A bit short on time atm so just this weeks bets for now - hopefully preview later
Omega European Masters
Thongchai Jaidee £60 win only 42 Betfair
Tommy Fleetwood £30 ew 66/1 + £25 80 Betfair
Paul Peterson £30 win 460 Betfair £25 top 5 42 Betfair
YE Yang £10 ew FRL 100/1
Deutsche Bank Championship
Sean O'Hair £30 ew 110/1
Steve Stricker £35 200 Betfair
Ryan Palmer FRL £15 ew 100/1
august 24th 14.07
This week the European Tour is in Denmark for the very well supported Made in Denmark tournament. My first bet was struck on Sunday afternoon where clearly the early layer has no idea who Sebastian Cappelen is. A bit odd he returns home when he is so close to the top 25 on the tour but I guess it shows his intention and I got £20 @ 600
My main bet of the week is David Lipsky as this seems to be his time of the year - he hit form in August last year culminating in a 3rd in the Italian Open and the year before won the European Masters on the back of some solid performances. He was 6th last week in the Czech Masters with a brilliant putting performance which could be the key stat this week and he has been top fifteen in both renewals around Himmerland £60 ew 66/1
The home contingent seem to turn it on for their home event and there are three players who have won on this course on the Nordic Tour - Olesen is one and in 2013 both Jensen and Winther won. Jensen was 7th here a couple of years ago showing his liking for the course and opened with a 67 last year. He upped his game last time he played in Scandinavia finishing 2nd in the Nordea Masters £10 win 200 £25 top 10 14/1 £20 top 5 33/1 £10 ew FRL 125/1
Jeff Winther also has a 2nd place on tour earlier in the season in the Tshwane Open but hasn't kicked on since but returning to a course he has done well on before could inspire him in front of his home fans. He played well for the first two rounds last week before fading and he could be this weeks surprise Danish player £10 win 410 £15 top 5 66/1 £20 top 10 23/1 average

august 17th 09.51
Kirwa gave us a great run for our money in the marathon taking 2nd and trading as low as 2.1 for the win. In running play Billy Mayfair also fnished 2nd @ 100/1 and with recent successes with Rodgers and Hurley winning - beginning to wonder if in play betting is best!!! Anyway - just a handful of bets before the off this week.
In the Womens Olympics I think Catriona Matthew stands a good chance of emulating Rose as she too has said for a long time how proud she would be to represent her country. The course suggests a good links game is required which she certainly has with numerous wins on links courses over her long career. She also comes here in good form with a 5th in the British Open last time out. Add in the fact that she won a two round LPGA event here in Rio a few years ago and I think we have a half decent bet £20 ew 80/1 1/4 5 + £10 ew 80/1 1/3 3
The European tour has the Czech Masters this week and it can boast a stronger field than normal as players hope to climb the Ryder Cup points list. My sole pick before the off Pelle Edberg doesn't have a hope in hell of making the team and whilst he has yet to win on tour he does have a habit of placing regularly on the same courses. The fact he was 2nd here last year means the early 90/100 was certainly value on the place part £40 ew 100/1
The PGA tour is in North Carolina for the Wyndham Championship where players are doing battle to make the play-offs. Bud Cauley still needs a good result but he has shown he can turn it on when the going gets tough. Despite suffering from numerous injuries and playing on medical exemptions he has also played some fine golf to keep his playing rights. He was 4th earlier in the year at the Byron Nelson and I was impressed with his 8th last week at Deere Run where he has never played well before but he struck the ball beautifully. He was 3rd here at Sedgefield back in 2012 and whilst he hasn't played well here since he hasn't been as fit or in form £30 ew 100/1
One last bet - Andrew Loupe seems to love a fast start - he has been joint leader the last two weeks - indeed he has been joint leader a stunning four times in twenty starts this year! Add in a 4th here after round one in 2014 and he has to be worth a small crack to get off to a flyer again £10 ew 150/1 FRL

august 13th 14.52
Right - as promised my big bet for the Olympic Womens Marathon which takes place tomorrow. I must admit this is a very confident each way bet - maybe not as strong as Ndereba back in 2007 but not far off!
When I look at these Championship marathons I look for an athlete who is capable of running the time needed to win, who has a very consistent marathon record with plenty of wins and places and one who has shown form in Championship marathons before which are run in warmer weather than the normal marathon majors.
In my mind Eunice Kirwa fits the bill in all departments - she has run a total off thirteen marathons finishing 1/1/2/2/3/5/DNF/1/1/1/1/3/1. Admittedly some of these were in lower key races but she was 3rd in last years World Championship only four seconds behind Dibaba and ahead of London marathon winner Sumgong who has been well punted. She has also won the Asian Games marathon. She also runs a lot of half marathons and showed she is in good form this season by recording her fastest ever time and in fact she has won her last five half marathons. I could go into lots of reasons as to why I wouldn't want to back anyone else but basically I have reservations about all of them especially Dibaba who has been poor in two runs this season.
The clinching fact for me is that Kirwa ran a lot of races in Brazil earlier in her career and her record in the Rio Half Marathon reads 1/1/1/2 - she will obviously have very good memories of running on these roads.
I managed to get some early 10/1 for the win and have topped up at 9/1 and also managed to get some 5/2, 9/4 and 2/1 about the podium finish - basically amounting to £1200 on the win and £300 on the podium
The best way to back her now is probably 9/1 each way 1/4 3 available with Bet365 and Boyles if you can get on but quite a few books are 9/1 win and 2/1 podium - such as Paddy Power, Unibet, Netbet etc
august 10th 14.46
A weak looking John Deere Classic plays alongside the Olympics this week and a couple are worthy of a bet.
Scott Brown is certainly a horses for courses player - constantly playing the same venues well year in year out on both the main tour and tour. If you can forgive him last years missed cut then past performances of 7/22/5 show he can play this place well including shooting a 61. His best finish of the year was again in Puerto Rico when 5th - the scene of his PGA tour win, but he was also 7th at Innisbrook which correlates well to this track as four players have won both events. Back to a bit of form with his best ever finish at River Highlands last time out he is worth a bet this week £40 ew 80/1 + £15 90 Betfair
Bit of a stab in the dark on Eric Axley a player plagued by injury in recent years he has finally found his form on the tour - 7th and 4th last two starts and he has been 4th here a few years ago. His one PGA tour came at Lacantera a while ago where Zach Johnson was a standing dish - much as he has been around Deere Run in recent years. £20 ew 200/1 £20 top 10 22/1 average Betfair £35 win 320 average Betfair
Last bet in the first round leader market on local player Luke Guthrie who has a solid record around here and twice been 3rd after the first day, first to tee off tomorrow is worth a close look £15 ew 100/1
august 10th 11.14
My apologies for a lack of previews the last couple of weeks - server issues meant I couldn't post anything but hope some of you followed on Twitter. It has been an OK couple of weeks with in play bet Rodgers grabbing a place last week and Boonma the same the week before at 200/1. I don't know what it is about golf in Thailand but if I saved all my bets for events in that country I would have retired by now!
The Olympics takes centre stage this week and golf makes a long awaited return and it is very difficult to weigh up what will happen this week. With so many top names not playing and the fact that I don't think some players will be overly focused (Matt Kuchar didn't even know what the format was!!) I have gone for a couple of players in good form who could well raise their game.
I will take a chance on two players from Chinese Taipei - CT Pan has already shown he can compete for his country - silver medal at the Asian Games in 2006 when only 15 and he went one better when taking gold in 2014 - fields were weak compared to this week and mainly amateurs but I think it proves something. The former world amateur number one won twice on the Canadian Tour last year after turning pro earning him his tour where he has been incredibly consistent already securing his PGA tour card for next season. £15 win 270 £35 top 5 22/1
Wen Tang Lin makes up the other half of the pairing and I think he is hugely overpriced based on recent form in Asia coming close to winning in Taiwan and Thailand. In the past he has won the Hong Kong Open so can do it on the bigger stage and he has performed with huge credit on similar tracks in Asia £15 win 430 £10 top 5 50/1 £25 top 10 16/1
Just one extra bet - the course may well resemble another Hanse design Castle Stuart and young Italian Matteo Manassero was 3rd there a few weeks back - and he seems a little bit overpriced on Betfair £20 140 Betfair
july 27th 14.41
I will admit the US PGA Championship is my least favourite of all the Majors as it just seems like a glorified PGA event but I have had a couple of bets on players who I think were a bit overpriced.
Steve Stricker jumped off the page at three figures for a couple of reasons, this is probably the best chance of a Major victory even if he is pushing fifty! Three times he has finished 7th in this Major so take the hint and go for the seven place option. His form in limited starts this year is not too shabby as in just twelve starts he has a 2nd at the St Jude, 7th at Innisbrook and was recently 4th at the Open. Admittedly he was a country mile behind the main two protagonists but he had the worse side of the draw and was only undone on the tricky Friday by one bad hole £50 ew 125/1 1/5 7 + £6 ew 66/1 top US
Kevin Streelman was in good form before a missed cut in Canada with finishes of 8th, 13th (US Open) and 12th and I am prepared to forgive his last start. He has strong family ties to New Jersey and has some form at the Barclays at Ridgewood having been 3rd and 4th there in the past. What is worth noting is that Ridgewood is another classic Tillinghast course. £10 ew 250/1 1/5 7 + £15 370 Betfair
Last bet is in the first round leader market with Scott Piercy who finished 2nd at both the US Open and WGC Bridgestone. If you take out 2014 when he was coming back from injury he has been 6th, 5th and 3rd after the opening round in this event and in his last forty starts he has led or co-led three times £12.50 ew 100/1 1/4 6 + £3 150 Betfair
july 20th 19.56
The less said about last weeks bets the better - but it was one helluva final round at the Open - just a quick rundown of this weeks bets
Canadian Open - Emiliano Grillo - £50 ew 40/1 - maybe a bit short but he is playing brilliantly tee to green - putter costing him but should be buoyed by a return Glen Abbey where he got in last year via a top ten finish at the Barbasol and led after round one
Senior Open - early prices were wrong for Jesper Parnevik £35 ew 55/1 + £30 55 Betfair - made all ten cuts in the Open before his DQ in the Mark Roe scorecard fiasco this included 2nd Turnberry, 2nd Troon, 4th Birkdale, 9th Lytham and 10th here at Carnoustie. Already won on Champions Tour this year, plus of course we have the Swedish inspiration from Stenson - what's not to like!
Utah Championship - Richy Werenski - a few missed cuts has seen the man 2nd on the money list pushed out to 125/1 £20 ew. Already won at Thornblade this year where there is good correlation and second at both El Bosque and Cartagena at altitude and guess what we have this week in Utah?! He was down the field last year here but did post good rounds in two and three - price is a bit wrong in my opinion
july 12th 17.04
We came close last week with Bozzelli making into a four man playoff after a brilliant finish but even the home support couldn't help him down the first play-off hole!
Onto what is arguably one of my favourite weeks of the year - Open Championship week and I have gone for a range of bets - but as most of you know I look for value down the field. My first bet was actually placed last week when Padraig Harrington looked to be having a good week on the links at the Scottish Open although he faded a little over the weekend. Weirdly Betfred pushed him out to 200/1 (1/4 6) and I jumped in with £40 ew. His history in the Open is well documented with a pair of victories he is a solid links player and whilst the last couple of years have been quiet for him he did win the Honda Classic on the PGA tour last season. He is still 125/1 and to be honest that is still very fair - he means business this week with his "trick cyclist" in tow!
Thinking about the Honda Classic which Harrington has now won twice got me thinking about the fact that the last six winners at Royal Troon have all been Amrican and Hamilton, Leonard, Calcavecchia and Weiskopf have all won the Honda and here at Royal Troon - surely that can't be a coincidence? Looking at other Honda winners we have this years - Adam Scott (great Open record), Rory, Els, Price etc - so thats what led me to Matt Kuchar. He won the Honda way back in 2002 and whilst he doesn't win that often he is always up there or thereabouts. He has a best finish of only 9th in the Open in 2012 but was 2nd at Gullane in the Scottish Open last year so he can handle links golf. Its his recent form which stands out a country mile with finishes of 3/3/6/4/46/3 from the Players - that is consistent golf of the highest quality £20 win 80 Betfair, £35 ew 66/1 1/4 6, £25 ew 66/1 1/5 7, £50 top 5 16/1
The other Honda Classic winner is 2014 champion Russell Henley who catches my eye as most of his other best form seems to be on coastal windy courses - like Sea Island, Waialae. He hasn't been playing that great this season with best finishes of 5th and 7th in his penultimate start but I just have a feeling that he could be a surprise package this week although I have kept the bets on him small £8 ew 300/1, 1/5 7 £10 ew 250/1 1/4 6, £20 win 430 Betfair
Final American is a player I backed last year Robert Streb who acquitted himself well to finish 18th at St Andrews. The reason I picked him last year was that he had won at Sea Island and maybe Troon will be a better fit than St Andrews was £6 ew 400/1 1/5 7, £12.50 ew 400/1 1/4 6, £20 win 650 Betfair, £10 ew 125/1 1/4 4 Top American
I have been keeping an eye on Matteo Manassero for a while waiting for the youngster to hit form again and people seem to have forgotten he is still only 23 years old! He has started striking the ball brilliantly again of late and that became apparent when he was 3rd last week at the Scottish Open. That wasn't the first time he has shown form on the links - 4th at Royal Aberdeen in 2014, and of course he won the Amateur Championship at Formby Links. £20 ew 200/1 1/4 6, £20 win 270 Betfair
One price to me that is/was just plain wrong is Hideto Tanihara who has just won back to back in Japan in recent weeks, OK it's a weak tour but a wins a win and two together is impressive. What the compilers seem to have forgotten is that he has Open form as back in 2006 when in similar form at home he was 5th! £4 ew 600/1 1/5 7, £6 ew 500/1 1/4 7, £20 win 1000 Betfair, £25 ew top ROW 100/1 1/5 4
Final bet for this preview is a little First Round Leader bet although I may add more in this category before the off. We have seen plenty of young amateurs perform great in the early rounds of Majors over the years and I don't see why young Amateur Champion Scott Gregory can't continue the trend with a nice early tee time £10 ew 300/1 1/4 6
july 13th 15.55
I will put this little preview of this weeks other bets below the Open preview as more people will be interested in reading the above!
The Fred Olsen Challenge de Espana comes from the Tecina course in the Canaries and I cannot resist a small bet on Luis Claverie who hails from the islands and has a superb record here of with a brace of 2nds and a brace of 3rds in six starts £15 ew 125/1
I have a hunch that we may well get some inspiration by comparison from Birgir Hafthorsson this week especially as the Icelander played a lot of football in his youth before turning to be a pro-golfer. He grew up playing golf on island courses by the coast so Tecina should hold no fears for him and he showed that when 5th last year. He turned 40 just six weeks ago as well so I couldn't resist a decent punt £40 ew 100/1
There is a low key in event in Alabama in the States - the Barbasol Championship and I will go for a couple of players with home connections who played there last year. Will Wilcox was 2nd going off a 25/1 shot saying he was inspired by so many friends and family coming to watch him as he spent some his early life here. This year hasn't been a great one so far but the month of July seems to bring out the best in him - maybe it's the hot humid weather £60 ew 66/1
Blayne Barber is the other home player who was 10th last year and reserves his best form for this part of the States. He comes here in slightly better form than Wilcox and is also worth a punt £40 ew 50/1
june 29th 18.14
Well Billy Hurley III obliged a week late and thankfully I put him up in running!
A brief rundown of this weeks bets - both the Open de France and Barracuda have been kind to me in the past so lets hope last weeks return to form keeps going!
Le Golf National is a brilliant course and pick number one comes in the shape of PGA tour regular Troy Merritt who seeks to emulate the form in recent years of similar golfers Kevin Stadler and Brendan Steele. Like them he enters the week in poor form and has just the one PGA tour win to his name. We don't know if he will take to the course but as the 24th ranked player in the field he really shouldn't be the price he is £5 ew 250/1 £40 ew 200/1 £50 250 Betfair
Second pick is Robert Karlsson who ten years ago would have been vying for favouritism but he never seems to have recovered his form after a couple of years playing full time in the States. The highlights of the last couple of seasons have been a runner-up slot in last years matchplay and a 4th here two years ago. After a string of missed cuts his last two starts have been encouraging and the Betfair prices were just too big to resist £25 win 410 £15 top 5 70 average £15 top 10 24
The Barracuda Championship is again an "opposite" event played alongside the WGC event and hence has a much weaker field than a normal event.
Andres Gonzalez has a whole stack of positives about him this week, his best result last year was when 4th here and his best result in 2014 came when 3rd in the OHL Classic (another weak opposite event). His three tour wins over the years have come on courses where in his previous performance he had a top ten finish - 2009 Saskatchewan Open, 2012 Soboba Classic and 2014 Utah Classic. His aptitude for playing at altitude is backed up not only by his 4th here last year but those finishes in Utah and for good measure throw in a 2nd in Bogota on the tour. His finish last week really caught my eye as he was 12th in a better field but topped the GIR stats. He was let down by his putting but is better in that department on the West Coast. £13 ew 150/1 £32 ew 125/1
Having been through the field time and time again I just can't help have a play on Ben Martin - like so many recent winners of this event - a tour winner who comes here in the doldrums though he has been making plenty of cuts. His one tour win also came in Nevada and in his only appearance here in 2011 he was 6th - his best performance in his rookie season £40 ew 50/1
june 22nd 16.03
Just a few bets on the European Tour BMW International this week, which returns to the Jack Nicklaus Gut Larchenhof course
Pablo Larrazabal is a two time winner of this event albeit on a different course but he also led here by a couple with a round to go before folding in 2014. There is something about the last week of June he likes - with form of 1/3/29/1/4/8/1.He can also boast a playoff loss at Gleneagles on another Nicklaus course. His recent form is solid enough - he was bang in contention til the wheels came off in the last three holes in his home open and was 12th at Wentworth and reckons he is very close to a big finish - take the hints £50 ew 70/1
Jeung Hun Wang is a huge young talent and the price just seems too big for a player who won back to back on this tour recently and was 3rd last week in Thailand £25 ew 80/1
Lastly Pelle Edberg - I don't think the Swede can win but he is a regular top five finisher - one this year in Thailand and three last year - one of which came at the "Nicklaus" designed Crans course and another in Germany. He can also get off to fast starts so I have backed him there too (6th after rd 1 here in 2014) £15 ew 150/1 FRL £10 win 620 Betfair £5 top 5 inc ties 50/1 £15 top 5 80 Betfair £15 top 10 20/1 inc ties
june 14th 11.33
The US Open is undoubtedly one of my favourite golf events of the year and this year looks to be better than most with Oakmont probably playing like an absolute beast. With plenty of players likely to be out of it very early I am only going to put two players up to start with as I feel there could be plenty of opportunity in running. Whilst I have never tipped the outright winner I have enjoyed my two biggest ever paydays in golf in this event with Mediate and Michael Thompson so here goes.
Opinions are divided as to whether distance off the tee or accuracy will be key with the rough so tough - in theory the further you hit the less accurate you are and you will be hitting shots in from the rough but not have so far, the more accurate you are you will be hitting it from a long way back - so it's a bit swings and roundabouts so I have gone for one big hitter and one accurate player!
Despite having a few niggling injuries JB Holmes has been having a very consistent season - 6th at Torrey Pines and Scottsdale, 4th at the US Masters and bounced back to form with 4th at Muirfield Village and that follows a solid 2015 with a win and two runner-up slots. I don't have to tell anyone he can hit it off the tee as he consistently ranks in the top two or three on tour every year. What I liked about him also is that he may well have fond memories of the course when in 2003 as a relatively unknown amateur he was medalist in the strokeplay section of the US Amateur having shot the low round of 70 around here. I just think at the price for someone who has become a far more consistent player he is worth a crack £30 ew 100/1 1/4 6 + £20 120 Betfair.
My second pick will take a hell of a lot more explaining and I am sure people are saying Billy Hurley III ??? Well I was initially drawn to him when I noticed he was 2nd to Holmes in 2003 in the strokeplay although his better round came on the other course used and he shot 74 round Oakmont. At the time he was in the top six in the World Amateur rankings but pursued a naval career rather than golf so came to the game quite late in the end. I have noticed most of his best results have tended to be on the Eastern seaboard - it is where he feels most comfortable - born in Virginia, he lives in Maryland where he spent his naval career not a million miles away from Pittsburgh.
Two of his best results on the tour came at Southpointe Pennsylvania when 5th and 10th but undoubtedly two of his best PGA performances came at another US Open venue Congressional in Maryland where he has been 4th and 8th in two visits. Reading quotes from those two starts he clearly likes playing tough courses and playing near home. He re-iterated that fact when he won his sectional qualifier in Maryland by three strokes last week. To re-emphasise his liking for tough tracks - his best finish was 2nd at Victoria National and he has also been 5th in the Honda Classic on the main tour @ PGA National
On the stats front - he is a short hitter but is very accurate and he has got that accuracy back in his last two starts - finishing 3rd and 9th in Driving Accuracy in those two. I think one key stat this week could well be three putt avoidance - he is 6th in that category this year and was 3rd last year
I always try and find some sort of other fact to back things up and I guess this is spurious and only really counts if he is in contention on Sunday which is Fathers Day in the USA. Some of you may remember the story of his Dad going missing last year and sadly taking his own life. Hurley may have his mind on other things on Sunday (often not a bad thing) and there wouldn't be a dry eye in the house considering events in his life this past year £10 ew 1000/1 1/5 7 £10 ew 1000/1 1/4 6 £10 win 1000 Betfair £10 ew 500/1 FRL
june 8th 16.38
The European Tour pitches up in Austria for what is basically a quite weak Lyoness Open and I have gone for a couple at big prices. It is safe to say that Michael Hoey has been in desperate form this year - a string of eleven straight missed cuts before a 41st in Sweden last week. Not much to write home about but last week would have looked a lot better but for a quintuple bogey eight on his penultimate hole on Sunday. He is also notoriously difficult to catch right but he does seem to have an affinity for certain countries where he has done well before. Whilst his win in Russia in 2013 was out of the blue he did back it up with a 4th there last year. His Dunhill Links win in Scotland was a shock but he had won the Amateur Championship @ Prestwick. He won on the Challenge Tour in Portugal and then won the Madeira Open - a Portuguese island, and his win in Morocco followed another win on the Challenge Tour there. His first ever Challenge tour win came in Austria and progressive course form of 48/20 makes him worth a stab this week £4 ew 250/1 (thanks sportingbet) £10 ew 200/1 £30 win 200 Betfair
The other player is Mike Lorenzo Vero - the second musketeer after Dubuisson (not sure who the third is!) I just think his best performances over the last year (especially 6th at Valderrama) give him a squeak here especially after his 11th place last year £20 win 140 £20 top 5 22/1
Over in the States I have plumped for a couple of local Tennessee players - Scott Stallings knows how to win and has been 2nd here before. Apart from his last start he has actually been in good form and the 160 on Betfair was too big to resist for £30.
Some of you may remember me tipping Peter Malnati for this a couple years ago and he was bang in contention for the first three rounds. Good news and bad news - he has now won on tour, he hasn't been playing that great! Apart from the Texas Open he has been missing a lot of cuts but that is nothing new for Malnati and he seems to find form from nowhere on courses he feels at home on. Armed with an early tee time he often gets off to fast starts so is worth chancing in that market as well £15 ew 357/1 (odd price Netbet!!) £20 win 370 Betfair £20 top 10 30/1 £15 ew 200/1 FRL
june 1st 16.40
A quick rundown of this weeks bets
Nordea Masters - a couple of young Swedes - they tend to turn it on for their home event
Christofer Blomberg - apparently come from nowhere but seems to have the winning knack - in October won on the Nordic Tour then two weeks later the Mena Tour, failed to gain his card at Q School but did so in South Africa for the Sunshine tour and won in Zambia on his fourth start. Was 4th last week on the Challenge Tour so in good form £10 ew 150/1 6 places £10 ew 100/1 FRL £10 win 210 Betfair
Sebastian Soderberg - 3rd in this last year having played well the year before as well albeit on different course. Big hitter who has already won on the Challenge Tour this year, qualified for US Open on Monday £10 ew 150/1 £10 ew 125/1 FRL £30 top 5 40/1
The Memorial - small bet on Thomas Aiken who was 4th at Wentworth at the weekend. Been invited to play here four times already - missed three cuts to start though was 2nd after round one on debut but played pretty well last year £20 win 380 Betfair £10 ew 125/1 FRL
Principal Charity Classic Mark Calcavecchia £20 ew 80/1 - what's not to like with course form of 3/3/1 - not playing that badly - was 6th in Tucson and was 4th with a round to go at the Regions Tradition
Corales Puntacana Resort Championship - Rodolfo Cazaubon - won three times on latino Tour last year including next door to this course in the Domincan Republic. Seems to like the sea air and books seem to have forgotten his 3rd in Puerto Rico on the main tour £12.50 ew 235/1 average £10 win 235 average Betfair Would be more but can't get on
may 25th 21.36
Just the two bets this week - in the BMW PGA Championship it pays to look for recent winners and I can't help but think that Soomin Lee is too big a price based purely on the fact he is a course debutant. It certainly didn't stop fellow young Korean Byeong Hun An last year and I think the courses that Lee has performed at his best on correlate well with Wentworth - in particular Hong Kong. £25 win 320 Betfair £30 top 5 40/1.
On the PGA tour they return to Colonial again and Chez Reavie catches the eye as his game is perfect for this classic course as he has shown with a 5th and 11th here before. He is striking the ball well and finally a few putts started to drop last week £30 ew 90/1 + £10 120 Betfair
may 23rd 16.19
Quick announcement - due to various circumstances (personal and betting) I will be cutting back on the golf betting for the near future. This year has been tough and it does get frustrating when the horse betting is simply subsidising the golf losses! As someone said to me (you know who you are!) I am probably guilty of having too many bets - after all only one player can win each event!! Also it has proved harder and harder to get on early prices (possibly a good thing!) and then by the time Wednesday comes they are all bigger on Betfair anyway! So any tips will be out on a Wednesday from now on and they will be much fewer in number - keep an eye on Twitter where I also put out the odd horse tips which have been hugely profitable this year. I will also endeavour to update the P&L at some point!
may 17th 11.42
A decent event in Ireland this week and five bets for me all at big prices - just a few notes about each
Andrew Johnston - just don't get the price - he was imperious in Spain and I can see him winning more events especially with his on course demeanour £40 ew 110/1
Marcel Siem - a while back he laid the demons to rest about getting over the finishing line winning three times in three years inclusing top class events like the French Open and BMW Masters. Been in the doldrums after an early 5th in Abu Dhabi but bounced back in China last time out tying for third and leading the all round stats £35 win 190 Betfair + £30 28/1 top 5
Marcus Fraser - frustrated when he won earlier this year when I was place only! Admittedly best form in Asia but form round tracks like Wentworth and Moscow could prove to be important this week and he was 2nd in Japan on his latest start £40 220 win Betfair + £30 top 5 25/1
Fabrizio Zanotti - playing magnificently tee to green at the moment - just needs a bit of improvement on the greens to contend. Three top five finishes in just five starts last year show he is no back number and he nearly won this event in 2012 albeit on a very different course.£20 win 290 average Betfair + £30 top 5 28/1
Felipe Aguilar continues the South American theme - having a torrid time this year but his first made cut of the year in China spurred him on and he was 2nd the following week. When he hits form he is a man to follow and has a good record on Palmer courses (as do most of my picks). I can't forget he nearly won this event as well back in 2008 at Adare Manor when 2nd on a similar parkland course Aguilar £20 win 310 Betfair + £20 38/1 average top 5
may 10th 17.20
Just time for a quick rundown of this weeks bets so far, in Mauritius the European, Sunshine and Asian tours meet for a tri-sanctioned event in what can only be described as a very weak affair. I will have a go at Max Orrin who knows how to win around the Els designed Four Seasons track having been victorious here in a couple of low key affairs. Whilst this is obviously stronger he caught my eye last week where he finished top of the all round stats in Morocco £60 ew 50/1
On the PGA tour it's the 5th Major at Sawgrass the Players Championship and David Lingmerth seemed an obvious bet at the early prices. He has racked up a whole host of top finishes in the last few years including when 2nd here a few years ago and got his maiden win at the Memorial last year in a decent event. He was another who caught my eye last week having missed all previous cuts at Quaill Hollow he was 17th last week £20 ew 150/1 6 placs + £35 160 Betfair.
Fabian Gomez also did well last week on a course he had always missed the cut on when after a poor opening round he climbed to 9th playing better than anyone else over the last three days. He has now won twice in the past eleven months (plus a small event home in Argentina) and both wins came on courses with small greens so those here at Sawgrass should hold no fear for him. Although it his debut here some players recently have done well on their first sighting with Kisner 2nd and Martin 4th last year, Spieth 4th in 2014 and the aforementioned Lingmerth 2nd in 2013. I must admit to being rather surprised at his huge price tag £8 ew 350/1 6 places, £12 ew 300/1 6 places + £60 500 on Betfair (long gone!)
may 4th 11.29
As some of you may have gathered by some of my Tweets I have an interest in a new company which is taking up quite a bit of my time so previews will have to be brief and probably late at present.
The European Tour is in Morocco this week for the Hassan Trophy II and we return to the Dar es Salam course last used in 2010 when Rhys Davies won. I am more than happy to give the "defending champion" a crack this week. He won twice on the Challenge Tour last year to regain his card, he won at Tecina interestingly six years after he first won there, and he also won this weeks Challenge Tour event exactly a year ago £35 ew 100/1
My only other bet in what really is a weak field is Seb Gros who like Davies won twice on the lower tour in 2015 - both of those wins were in "stronger" field events for that tour. He opened up his season on this tour with a 4th at Leopard Creek but then went off the boil however his recent form has caught my eye. After four straight missed cuts he has made his last four and last week topped the all round stats - a sign that his game is in good shape £35 ew 66/1
I always look at the PGA tour and I know I said I had given up tipping on it but I can't resist a couple of small plays this week. Scott Stallings seems a big price this week considering his recent upturn in form on courses he hasn't played that well before. His form here is awful but has always entered the week playing poorly £15 ew 225/1 + £15 280 Betfair
Local player Harold Varner III I expected to be chalked up at a much lower price coming here on the back of a couple of top ten finishes. Hitting it long and scrambling well seem to be the key to this course and he is definitely long and in his last two events he has been 9th and 2nd for scrambling. He honed his game in this area on the Egolf tour winning twice fulfilling the potential that saw him win the North Carolina matchplay and strokeplay amateur events in 2011. Two of his best finishes came in North Carolina with a 2nd and 6th, try and get a 6 place option as he seems to have a habit of filling that position! £20 ew 150/1 6 places + £5 200 Betfair
APRIL 27th 14.22
It's the Challenge Tours turn to visit Spain this week on a course that was last used in 2005 and 2006 and it looks like a classic Spanish short, tight, tree lined track although scoring should be fairly low. Looking back at those results Spaniards unsurprisingly fared very well and those players at the top of the leaderboard had played well on courses like Moscow, St Omer, Pula, Kenyan Open courses and even island courses Tecina and Santo de Serra.
Home player Jordi Garcia Pinto has always struggled a bit on the main tour but this is more his level. He has won both the Kenyan Open and at St Omer in recent years so the course really should fit him. A 29th placed finish in his home Open reads pretty solid and I would have him a few points shorter £20 ew 100/1
Veteran Mikael Lundberg would love a return to somewhere like Moscow with two wins and a third around that tight track. He showed last year he was no back number when third on the main tour at the tree lined Trophee Hassan and it was only the year before that he won in Austria in a higher league. This course should suit this short hitter and is well worth a bet £40 ew 66/1
Last man in is Scott Henry who has shown a liking for courses I think are relevant with a 3rd in Tecina, 3rd St Omer, and 2nd twice at Santo da Serra so this track should hold no fears for him. He was a solid 11th last week in Egypt with all four rounds in the sixties. This could be the week that he could add to his sole Challenge Tour win to date £30 ew 76/1
APRIL 26th 10.58
Well we managed to get a tied 4th with Scott Hend last week and it was a bit frustrating with Nacho Elvira having a good tournament but providing us with no financial return. The tour stays in China for this weeks Volvo China Open but we have another new course - the Ian Woosnam Topwin course which is more of a parkland venue so I have looked for players who are coming into a bit of form, who maybe a little fresher and who can perform on parkland tracks.
Rikard Karlberg has a great record out in Asia where he is based and finally won in Europe last year on the parkland Milano course. He has particularly good form around the tree lined Dehli course where he has two wins and a third and I think this weeks venue should be right up his street. Since the tour has been out in Asia he has slowly been coming to hand going 40/25/8 and was spared the rigours of Valderamma a couple weeks ago. After a weak opening round last week he played as well as anyone over the final three rounds with a hot putter he was second on the all round stats. Expect a bold showing this week £50 ew 66/1 + £10 85 Betfair
Whilst Nacho Elvira has had a couple of tough weeks he showed yet again his affinity for golf in China and maybe he is just about to show the quality that has netted him four wins on the Challenge Tour in just his last sixteen starts. His form is definitely on an upward curve and maybe last week will give him the confidence to prove this is where he belongs £40 ew 110/1
Finally I thought the price for Fabrizio Zanotti was just way too big on what he has achieved the last two seasons. Whilst he has played well on open courses his win in Germany was on a combined links/parkland course and last year he was 2nd at Woburn and 3rd in Milan.His form in China is not exceptional but he was 6th in this event in 2012 and 10th in the BMW Masters in 2014. He caught my eye last week on his first start at Genzon where after an average opening round he climbed through the field to finish 16th striking the ball excellently all week £40 ew 125/1
APRIL 20th 10.55
After one tough week in Spain the European Tour disappears once more to the other side of the world so we are back to the morning scroll from the bottom of the leaderboard! Three tips from me this week - one from the middle and two from the bottom.
Scott Hend loves this neck of the woods going 6/1/2/1 in Macau, winning in Hong Kong at the end of 2014 and a win in Taiwan. He can also boast a 2/3/6/9 in China if you dip back far enough. I am quite happy to forgive him his last two starts on unfavourable tracks and before that he won in Thailand. He was 15th here on his only start to date so can clearly handle the course and for a man who has shown rcently he can get the job done I felt his odds were too big to resist £40 ew 66/1
My two outisders both have something in common - they both won in China on the Challenge Tour at the Foshan Open played on a very similar course not a million miles away from here. My stronger bet of the two is probably Nacho Elvira - he first appeared on the main tour in 2014 having graduated from the Challenge Tour. Admittedly he struggled a bit on his first attempt but his best finish of the year came here when 15th when only a poor second round prevented him finishing higher. He dropped back to the lower tour in 2015 and quickly gained battlefield promotion securing three wins in just twelve starts! He has struggled yet again this year but his last thre starts have looked promising, a 19th in Thailand was followed by a solid finish in India where he was 2nd at the cut and then he played two good rounds out of four last week in Spain. What also caught my eye was his fast starts in China - 5/10/9/3 in four attempts £20 ew 200/1 £20 ew 130/1 average FRL £15 260 Betfair
The other young Spaniard who won the Foshan Open was Borja Virto Astudillo - his second win of last year. Like Elvira he has also struggled a bit but has also just made his last three cuts. He led wire to wire in China last year so is also worth a small look at in that market £20 ew 250/1 £10 ew 175/1 FRL £10 325 average Betfair
APRIL 14th 16.21
As promised a quick look at this weeks Champions Tour event the Mitsubishi Electric Classic played on the Sugarloaf course which once hosted the Bellsouth Classic on the main PGA tour so a lot of players can call on some experince from years ago. Was tempted by Scott Dunlap as he was based here on this course in Duluth Georgia for many years but I can't see any real value in his price.
Jesper Parnevik is my idea of a decent bet as he was 4th here last year in the 36 hole shortened event and was 2nd on this course on the PGA tour before - he clearly likes Sugarloaf. He has improved his finishes on this tour on courses he has alrady played including a 3rd a couple of starts ago £25 ew 100/1 £15 ew 80/1 £6 ew 50/1 w/o faves £15 80 Betfair
The other three bets are just small ones - Brandt Jobe hits it miles and has also been 2nd here on the PGA tour but has only had six starts on this tour and has hardly been prolific in his career - £10 80 Betfair. Glen Day is also hardly a prolific career winner but has gone 30/28/6 in his first three Champions tour starts so maybe worth a saver as well £10 80 Betfair
Scott Verplank has a 4th and 5th here yonks ago and whilst he hasn't matched the heights of five PGA tour wins in his Champions tour career to date he did lead going into the final round in Tucson before the pressure got to him £6 ew 80/1 £6 ew w/o Langer/Jimenez 50/1 £10 win 80 Betfair
APRIL 12th 11.29
It's great to see the European Tour back on home soil especially as it makes viewing easier and also seeing one of the best courses back in use - Valderrama. I have picked three players who have shown they can play the tough Trent Jones course.
Number one pick and three time tour winner is Richie Ramsay who will try and emulate Willett and win on his first start back having become a father for the first time. He played here back in 2011, shot a brilliant first round 65 and eventually hung on to 3rd. He has been out in Spain for a few days getting himself back in the groove and having already provn he can win around a Trent Jones track which looks and feels very similar to Valderrama (Golf du Palais Royal) I am expecting a big week. He said back in 2011
"Valderrama is the kind of course that suits me.It’s a shot-maker’s course. You need to manoeuvre the ball right to left or left to right, sometimes you need the low shot or the high one and I feel comfortable doing that".
He also has a great record in Spain with three other top five finishes. For a change I am also more than happy with the price £50 ew 66/1 + £15 75 Betfair
Gregory Havret was in fine form the last time we saw him finishing 10th and 6th in the far east and I hope he has kept his ball striking together in the interim. He was 6th here on his last visit behind Ramsay in 2011 and whilst it has been a long time since his last win he is worth a punt this week at triple figure odds £30 ew 100/1
My third pick is SSP Chawrasia who won his last European tour event at home in India on another tight tree lined course. His best finishes have all come on similar tracks to Delhi - 5th Hong Kong, and 9th here on his only start in 2010. He could be a bit of a surprise package this week £25 ew 100/1
APRIL 12th 10.20
Another great Grand National for me - thats three of the last nine winners tipped at big odds - so a little crack at the Scottish version is in order. I think I will stick with one stat and that is the last eleven winners have all been rated 146 or below and the one I like the most initially is my bet from the Grand National who missed getting in Royale Knight. Newlands' string are in fine form with five of his last seven runners winning. Whilst giving his horses prep runs in hurdles has meant they didn't qualify for the big one Royale Knight seems to need these runs - looking back over the last few years his results are impressive when tackling a big staying chase after running in a hurdle
Dec 13 won Scottish Borders National
Oct 14 won Durham National
Apr 15 6th Grand National
Oct 15 won Durham National
The 20/1 is going rapidly and I have had a decent e/w bet

APRIL 8th 12.49
My two for the Grand National would certainly buck the trends as far as the winner is concerned but there are lies, damn lies and statistics and the race is gradually changing with a more compressed handicap, shorter distance and easier fences.
The stats say Vics Canvas cannot win as a 13 year old although strictly speaking he isn't 13 til next week! For his age he is lightly raced not running his first point to point until 2010 and didn't jump a fence until under two years ago. He then won the Cork National easily and was 3rd in the Paddy Power Chase and last year was staying on in the Bet365 Gold Cup when 2nd. Those are three good results in top staying handicap chases, and he ran well when 5th over these fences in the Becher Chase. His last run in the Bobbyjo can be forgiven - he had no chance at the weights and his trainer just wanted to get a run into him. The weight thing is key and as a small horse he struggles to carry bigger weights - his weight for the Grand National is spot on. As an added plus horses sired by Old Vic have a great record with 23 runners in the last 6 years there have been 2 winners and 4 places. I think the prices are way out of line especially 80/1 with 5/6 places.
Whilst Vics Canvas maybe too old Rule the World has never won a chase but he has come close in some big staying chases - 2nd in last years Irish National, was coming to challenge for the Galway Plate when clipped heels between the last two, and was then 3rd in the Kerry National. This has been the aim all season and I can see him running a big race if he takes to the fences

APRIL 5th 11.33
Time for the first Major of the year with the Masters and I am keeping it simple to start with - just the two bets based on the fact that course form is key around Augusta National.
The history of repeat winners is well documented and I fancy Charl Schwartzel could well win his second Green Jacket this week. His form in this event has been a bit patchy since his win but he comes into this week in great form. He had to miss a few events at the beginning of the season due to illness but progressed nicely through the field to win the Tshwane Open in his first event back. He then moved to the States and won his third event the Valspar Championship and a solid 13th in Houston should put him spot on for this £40 ew 40/1 1/4 6 + £20 50 Betfair
My second pick may come as a surprise to many (probably me as well!) but Ian Poulters' form around Augusta is very good. In his last six starts here he has finished top ten three times and he has made the cut in ten of eleven starts. There are certain paralells with Cabrera who won on his 11th start having had three top tens and even Adam Scott who won on his 12th attempt having also had three top tens. There is one other similarity between all three in that they have all won around Asias' premier track Sentosa in Singapore which I think bears some resemblance to Augusta. There is a rule which says that players don't win past 40 but there have been plenty who have finished close in recent years proving that experience counts and Poulter only just turned 40 in January. Reading back through past interviews he loves it here and reckons it is his best chance to win a Major. He comes here buoyed by a 3rd placed finish in Puerto Rico and even if that was a low grade event he seems to have gained some confidence. The main bet has been the top ten one - the price seemed way out of line to me based on recent performances £30 win 270 Betfair £20 ew 175/1 £15 top 5 28/1 inc ties £100 top 10 14/1

APRIL 3rd 13.16
The US Masters is the first of the four Majors and in theory should be the easiest to predict and therefore bet on. The same course Augusta National is used at the same time of year and the field is set relatively early. It is also the smallest sized field of the Majors with only around 90 competitors and with some ageing past winners we can immediately dismiss. If you are looking to have a bet here are some Do’s and Don’ts to help guide you
Don’t back any player who is a debutant at Augusta National - it is a well documented fact that Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 remains the only player to win on his first appearance. It comes as no great surprise as it is a course which a player needs to know before performing well on with so many nuances it is unlike any other golf course.
Don’t bet on the Par 3 contest which takes place on the Wednesday. To put it simply the field is unknown as not all Masters contenders play and there are various past champions and honorary invitees who take part. Also and most importantly you will often find players allow their five year old sons/daughters/nephews etc to putt out hence rendering their scores null and void.
Don’t bet on the winner of the par 3 contest - not one player has won on the Wednesday and gone on to win the full title on the Sunday. Padraig Harrington has to tell himself not to play well in the par 3 contest which he has won three times recently - he then might give himself another chance at a Major.
Don’t back defending champion Jordan Spieth unless you think he is a player of the highest calibre. The only players to win back to back so far are - Nicklaus 65/66 Faldo 89/90 Woods 01/02 so if you don’t think he belongs in such illustrious company give him a swerve.
Don’t back players who have passed their 40th birthday - the last sixteen winners have all been in their 20’s and 30’s. The last winner in his 40’s was Mark O’Meara back in 1998 and he was only 41 and was at the peak of his career winning the Open Championship later that year
Do make sure your player made the cut at last years Masters as all the winners bar one in the last twenty years made the cut at Augusta the year before. The only player to have missed the cut was Tiger Woods in 1996 so I guess that is one exception we can accept.
Do now wait until the week of the tournament to have a bet as bookmakers will offer greater value and enhanced place terms (ie top 6 or even 7) to attract new clients
Do check the weather - not just the forecast compared with tee times as to who might get the most favourable conditions such as wind strength but also look at what the weather has been like running up to the tournament. If it has been really wet and Augusta National is playing even longer than normal then you can rule out the shorter hitters.
Do bet in running - all bookmakers will be doing this through all four days but try and wait until your player is through the 12th hole. The reasons are fairly straightforward as the all time hardest holes are the 10th followed by the 12th and then the 11th . After that tough challenge things ease down a little as the 13th is the second easiest and the 15th the easiest.
Do look closely at Hole in One betting - Odds are normally around 10/11 Yes and 10/11 No so there will probably be value on a No bet. In 2004 Chris Dimarco and 2013 Jamie Donaldson both had an ace on the 6th hole but all the others in the last 20 years have been on the 16th and usually when the pin is in its Sunday position - so you will probably have to sweat things out!

march 30th 12.16
No PGA tour tips from me this week especially after last weeks huge disappointment where we had three runners going for us and they all managed to fall short of the places. So instead it's the Champions tour and the tour
Woody Austin finally broke his Champions tour duck last time out and I wouldn't be surprised to see him kick on with that win under his belt. He has an impressive 40% top 5 strike rate on this tour including when 5th here last year. That was his first start on the Champions tour last year and came on the back of seven missed cuts on the main tour, this season he looks to have dedicated himself to this tour. He has always played well in Mississippi and lets not forget it was only 2013 that he won on the PGA tour in the state £75 ew 22/1 + £20 23/1 Betfair
The tour travels back to South America for the Brazil Champions where you have to look for a short hitting accurate player who can go low
Matt Fast is yet to win on tour but seems an improving type who was 9th here last year. Reading his blog from a few years ago he was very fond of the track saying it suited his game but he struggled with the putter and missed the cut. He led at the cut in Louisiana before fading over the weekend when conditions changed £12.50 ew 125/1
Steven Alker is your archetypal short but accurate player, he can get hot as when shooting 61in Utah when he won in 2013 and 62 at the Boise Open in 2014 when 2nd - interestingly those courses were also at elevation. He is in good form with a 6th last time out at home in New Zealand and 6th in Bogota on this tour. £40 ew 50/1 + £15 50 Betfair
Kent Bulle sprung to like in South America last year on the Latino tour where in 18 starts he recorded finishes of 1/2/2/2/4/9/9/10 to finish 2nd on the Order of Merit. One of those seconds was in Brazil and I reckon he is a very promising player £5 ew 66/1 £15 ew 50/1 £30 win 60 Betfair
Lastly a little £5 ew 275/1 on Benjamin Alvarado who won this in 2013. Sadly the talented Chilean has had the last few years interrupted by a succession of injuries but is now back playing - hopefully he retains his ability

march 21st 18.14
Not much time to do a preview so just the bets atm - main thing for Puerto Rico is the Florida link
Steve Wheatcroft £12.50 ew 150/1 £8 top 5 33/1 £20 win 190 average Betfair
Wes Roach £10 win 175/1 £30 top 5 35/1 £15 win 180 Betfair
Will Mackenzie £50 ew 66/1
Jonathan Byrd £45 ew 60/1
Derek Fathauer £35 ew 80/1

march 16th 11.20
Quite often we get an event with virtually no course form to go on but this week with the Indian Open we almost have too much! Delhi is a tight course, short in distance with no rough at this time of year which makes it easy to roll the ball off the fairway and into trouble. The stats for past events here are a bit misleading as it suits the shorter accurate players and the home contingent have a distinct advantage.
Chiragh Kumar won on his last start here in November and has also been 2nd and 4th in recent years in this event before it was co-sanctioned so I think we can safely say he can play the course. Also he can usually find form at home when seemingly in a poor run of form, since his win he has been poor but last week in Thailand he played really well for three rounds - each a 68 but struggled in the wind on Saturday with a 76. The last two weeks he has been 5th and 8th for Driving Accuracy and last week led the putting stats - if he can bring that form home he has a great chance. He also often gets off to a fast start at home in Delhi so I have had a small bet in that market as well. £30 ew 125/1 + £10 ew 80/1 FRL
Shubhankar Sharma has been 4th in the last two Panasonic Opens around here and a solid 17th in the co-sanctioned event last year. He has been in great form in limited starts in 2016 - 1st and 2nd in home events and 3rd in the Bangladesh Open on the Asian tour - in those 12 rounds of golf he is 57 under par - and he is only nineteen!!! This is a big step up but he is a big talent £30 ew 125/1 + £5 150 Betfair
Whilst not exactly qualifying as the "home contingent" Sri Lankan Mithun Perera also likes it round here - his last five finishes read 9/8/2/3/4 - with the 3rd being in last years co-sanctioned event. He is yet to win on any main tour but does have five wins on the Indian tour. He has been in the top three for driving accuracy in each of the last three years on the Asian tour so it is no wonder this course suits - he could well be the surprise package of the week £10 win 180 Betfair, £12 top 5 inc ties 25/1, £20 top 5 30/1, £25 top 10 inc ties 12/1, £10 ew 100/1 FRL
Lastly I will put up someone who is definitely not local - Robert Dinwiddie. A couple of poor missed cuts here in the past are overlooked as he was either injured/out of form. His recent improvement each week is eye catching 23/15/10 after opening the year with four missed cuts - this has been down to some excellent play tee to green which is what is needed here £20 ew 100/1
march 9th 14.18
This weeks New Zealand Open gets underway in about five hours time so best get your bets on quick! Looking at the last three renewals of this something struck me
Zunic was 23 just turned pro two months before and finished 8th the week before
Papadatos was 23 been a pro for a while and finished 15th the week before
Higginbottom was 19 still an amateur and finished 10th the week before
I therefore looked for under 24 year olds, possibly not been pro for long and who had a decent finish last time out
Anthony Houston is now 24 and been a pro for a little while - got his playing rights this year by winning the Aus Q School in January and has remained in good form since (20th last week) He was right up with the pace at the cut last year before fading and is a more rounded player now £20 ew 125/1
Tom Power-Horan has just turned pro having been a good amateur - was 9th last week in New Zealand and could maintain that form £10 win 200/1 + £20 top 5 40/1
On another note in the Valspar keep an eye out for Blayne Barber - found his form back on familar home greens when 3rd at the Honda and was 5th here behind Harris English in the Southern Amateur
march 8th 14.59
I think it would be an understatement to say I am a great fan of the Black Mountain course - the venue for this weeks True Thailand Classic - I tipped Marksaeng and Hiratsuka when it was used on the Asian tour and topped that with Dodt at 125/1 last year - so the pressure is on!!
First bet that was struck was on Johann Carlsson who can probably boast the strongest form on the European tour this season of those on show. A 7th in the Joburg Open was followed by top twenty finishes in each of the Desert Swing events - he has certainly been consistent in better events. Course form seems fairly imperative as well and you can tick that box as well with a 7th here last year. The only drawback in a way has been the price - I got £25 ew at 66/1 but to be honest am loathe to take a lot shorter about a guy who hasn't won on the main tour yet. Maybe I will get the chance to add to that in running.
Main bet of the week for me is David Lipsky - I like to follow a player who is showing some progressive form and he certainly fits the bill on that front - improving with every start this season culminating in a 9th in Perth. He also has shown a similar improvement in his stats in each start especially in the GIR category which is the strong part of his game when on song and this is exactly what he did before winning in Crans in 2014. His course form doesn't look that impressive with a 50th last year but he showed he could play the course well with an opening 65 which left him 2nd after the first round. He broke through on the Asian tour with a win this week in March 2012 and I give him a great chance to add to his tally this week £75 ew 80/1 + £5 85 Betfair
I am happy to side with local Thai player Chapchai Nirat due to his excellent course form - forget last years missed cut as he was coming back from injury but prior to that he was 5/14/3 in the Asian tour events at Black Mountain and was also 5th here in September in a strong ADT event. He has won a co-sanctioned event before - exactly nine years ago, and has won three other Asian tour events since. He has been in pretty good form this year and on a course he plays very well I give him a strong chance at decent odds £12.50 ew 100/1 £15 win 100/1 £25 top 5 18/1
My outsider for the week is one of my old favourites Mardan Mamat who has also won a co-sanctioend event although for his you have to go back exactly ten years to the week!. He is now in the twilight of his career but has still shown he still has game by winning a couple of Asian titles in the last eighteen months, was 3rd in the Mauritius Open last year and was top Asian player at the Perth International when 8th. He has also shown he can handle the course with a 14th and 6th here and I think he is overpriced this week £20 win 220 average Betfair £25 top 5 40/1
march 2nd 09.18
I may not have time for a write-up this week - so for now here are the bets for this weeks WGC Cadillac Championship - hopefully get a chance to do some trading on Betfair
Jason Dufner £8 ew 125/1 £25 ew 100/1 £15 130 Betfair
Kevin Kisner £40 110 Betfair
Russell Knox £45 185 average Betfair
David Lingmerth £25 ew 100/1 + £15 200 Betfair
Andy Sullivan £25 ew 125/1 + £20 200 Betfair
february 23rd 14.58
A bit galling last week with Marcus Fraser winning having backed him place only but his win ratio has been awful but his place ratio (especially in Asia) has been great. To be honest he was lucky to win and if I had read his comments about how badly he was playing before the off I wouldn't have backed him at all!!
The European tour travels onto Australia for the Perth International so I have another week of interrupted sleep! One thing I have noted is that links players have a great record here - Els won the Johnnie Walker by ten shots in his prime, surprise winner Jeong was an Amateur Champion at Muirfield and Olesen has been first and second in the Dunhill Links. With it playing fast and hard after dry conditions I can imagine this trait will continue. Apologies for the number of bets but I found dit difficult to leave players out!
James Morrison - finally got his second European tour win last season in Spain and was also 2nd in the French Open - an event he came close to winning in 2011. He has been slowly coming to form this season and will hopefully be inspired returning to a course where he was 4th in October 2014 breaking the course record in the process. £50 ew 66/1 + £10 70 Betfair
Julien Quesne is a player to note when he finds a bit of form - all his wins have come soon after a top ten finish and thats what he did last week - 4th in Malaysia. Whether this weeks course will suit I am not sure but he did shoot an opening 67 on his one start £30 ew 66/1
Paul Dunne fits the profile of a good links player having led the Open and Dunhill Links and has just turned pro and was a very impressive 13th at Torrey Pines. I got on at 66/1 for £15 ew but to be honest wouldn't want to take a lot less
Benjamin Hebert is a player who will surely one day be winning on the main tour having had three wins on the Challenge Tour in 2014 and three times in 2011. He had a better year on tour last year keeping his card largely due to a 4th in the Dunhill Links and has already gone a long way to keeping it again making all his cuts and finishing 3rd at Leopard Creek £12.50 ew 80/1 £20 top 5 inc ties 14/1 £15 win 85 Betfair
Ryan Fox causes me a bit of concern - I would have thought he would have played more this year but I can't find anything that says he's been injured - maybe he just fancied a break. He has now won three times in small events in the past sixteen months and I really do think the breezy fast conditions will suit his game as he showed when 9th in 2014 £35 ew 80/1
JB Hansen - 7th and 21st in two starts here - some of his best starts on the main tour - his best was a 3rd on the Scottish links at Castle Stuart. He got his card back by finishing 2nd and 3rd in the last two events on the Challenge Tour and there were signs in Dubai and Qatar that his game is coming round. Although a win is probably hard to envisage I do think the place part of the bet is a little high £20 ew 150/1

february 17th 13.12
Due to BT disconnecting my broadband because of non payment of a bill on a fictitious account that even they don't know exists (yup you really couldn't make it up!) I am unable to write and upload a preview so just this weeks bets!
Maybank Malaysian Championship
Gregory Bourdy £50 ew 66/1
Chris Wood £25 ew 40/1 + £20 40 Betfair
Scott Hend £5 ew 100/1 + £25 ew 80/1
Mikko Ilonen £40 ew 50/1 + £20 55 Betfair
Marcus Fraser £25 top 5 32/1
Dimension Data Pro-Am
Jordan Smith £30 60 Betfair
Callum Mowat £15 ew 200/1 + £10 210 Betfair

february 10th 14.44
The European tour travels back to South Africa after the Desert swing for the Tshwane Open which will be held at the Pretoria course for the second year running. It's a trappy little berting heat and I have only had a couple of bets but may well add in running.
Clement Sordet is a bet at the price purely based on his potential and what he has achieved in his fledgeling career. He was a top amateur and won on the Alps tour as an amateur aged 19 in 2011. Last year he turned pro and won on just his 4th start on the Challenge Tour but its what he did in Thailand in December that caught my eye. He finished tied 2nd to Donaldson alongside Westwood and beating An and Garcia by four and Kaymer by six. A performance akin to that which also gained him an Open slot should see him go close here. £40 ew 90/1 + £20 95 and £30 top 10 12/1 both on Betfair.
I found it hard to pick one of the four young South Africans who have shown so much in their homeland already this season but have gone for one slightly older and at a much bigger price. Dylan Frittelli has been around a bit longer but has always had potential - one of his best results came when he lost in the playoff before Christmas in the Australian PGA Championship. He finished 18th at Glendower improving throughout the week and was a solid 10th here last year and I am not put off by the missed cut in the Joburg Open as he has never played well there £40 ew 100/1
Over in the States I have been through the Champions tour event with a fine toothcomb trying to unearth another Esteban Toledo. I was drawn to the fact that course form is not really relevant and debutants have a good record. Ian Woosnam stuck out as a big price - he has never played here before but warrants some respect as he won and was 3rd on this tour last year. He closed with a pair of 69's at the weekend after a tardy start and if he carries that momentum into this week then he could challenge £12.50 ew 250/1

february 10th 10.23
I promise this will be the last PGA tip I put up before the Puerto Rico Open! I guess I have just been keeping my eye on things waiting for the Pebble Beach pro-am as it is one of my favourite betting heats of the year. That is down to tipping two winners in the past - Oberholser 50/1 and Points 100/1. Both of those were picked due to course form - some of which was hidden which leads me to Chesson Hadley. His form here over the last two years of a brace of 10th places is obvious to all but he was also 2nd in the Pebble Beach Invitational in 2013. He would have been much closer than 10th last year but he went for the 18th in two on Sunday and wound up taking a double bogey.
I am not put off at all by his recent form - in fact I am rather encouraged - in the past two years he has come into this event in awful form and produced a top ten. He would have finished a bit higher in Phoenix if someone hadn't picked up his ball on the ninth hole on Saturday leading to a double bogey and his performance was much better than last year. He also made the cut at Torrey Pines for the first time and what really caught my eye was that he led the field in ballstriking that week.
After shooting a 64 on the Shore course on Thursday last year he said
"it is my favorite place on the planet and it's just, no matter what happens the rest of the week, this is just awesome. It's just nice to be here" and you only have to look at his Twitter feed to see how much he is in love with Pebble Beach.
He is quite happy in the pro-am format - he calls himself a "chatterer" and feels relaxed and I guess that shows with a 3rd in the pro-am and his first top five finish on the PGA tour came at the Shriners event - multi course events certainly don't phase him!
I guess the cherry on top of the icing of the cake for me is that he became a dad for the second time not long ago (a daughter this time) and he won a few months after first becoming a father - so all in all it added up to a big bet for me and hopefully not too much egg on my face! The Betfair bet will be traded to a degree should he get into contention and as he plays the same course first that he shot 64 on last year hopefully it will be early!!
£40 ew 250/1 £14 top 10 14/1 inc ties £16 top 10 14/1 £125 250 Betfair to win £31,250
february 3rd 19.16
A quick summary of other bets - maybe I shouldn't have said I would be swerving the PGA tour!
Aaron Baddeley like Stanley is a past winner of the Phoenix Open and has shown some good signs in recent months - mainly due to a better attitude and a new coach - £20 win 210 Betfair £15 top 5 35/1
Ryan Palmer often gets off to a fast start and normally on the same course
Waialae 1/5
Las Colinas 2/1/5/3
Boston 1/3/1
Scottsdale 1/2/1
He has opened up with a 64 in three of the last four years here and when he shot 76 in 2014 he followed it up with a 64 ! £20 ew 45/1 + £10 50 Betfair
On the tour we move further south for the Club Colombia Championship and I have taken a put on Nicholas Lindheim. He won his first main title on the Latino tour in Colombia in October 2014 and added to that win in Mexico a year later. He has shown he can be competitive in this grade a few times so is worth a bet this week where he should have positive memories £20 ew 100/1 + £10 ew 125/1
Finally on the Champions tour I think all the favourites are worth opposing this week, Langer has to fight the short putter, Perry has poor course form and only won once last year, Monty has been poor on both visits, Ddurant hasn't won on this tour yet in 32 starts, and Allen hasn't won for over a year and is now 57. I have therefore gone for three players at big prices who offer a bit of value.
Todd Hamilton £10 ew 150/1
Esteban Toledo £10 ew 150/1
Jerry Smith £10 ew 200/1
february 3rd 14.26
I have had a couple of plays in the Phoenix Open this week - first up is Kyle Stanley who won this in 2012. We have had numerous repeat winners of this event over the years which is quite unusual and judging from the current state of his game Stanley could possibly join that list. If we look back at his win in 2012 we can see a bit of a pattern that he is following this year - 23rd in the Sony, missed cut in the old Bob Hope - he then suffered a final hole disaster at Torrey Pines whilst ranking 2nd on the all round stats. This year he has been 13th at the Sony, missed cut, then last week whilst he only finished 25th he led the all round stats for the week. The key to playing Scottsdale well is hitting greens these days and that part of his game is certainly in good shape. I was rather surprised to see him chalked up early doors at 200/1 and had £20 ew + £5 200 Betfair + £8 250 Betfair
There does seem to be a bit of a profile for some winners - when you look at Holmes, Stanley and Koepka - they were all aged 23-25, were all making their course debut and were all top amateurs having qualified for the US Open as amateurs. Smylie Kaufman fits that description to a tee, already has a win and won in the desert on the PGA tour last year. I have a feeling he will relish the challenge and will turn in a good performance this week £10 ew 100/1 + £30 125 average Betfair
february 3rd 13.06
No joy last week but we have a very busy week this week - hopefully we can make amends! The Dubai Desert Classic is this weeks European tour event and whilst we lose Grace and Garcia from last week we gain Rory as a short priced favourite but prices should be roughly similar to what they were last week.
I will stick with Mikko Ilonen this week - he was solid enough last week and can boast some good performances around the Emirates course as well with a 5th and 6th over the years. The bigger price was the deciding factor to go in again £45 win 100 Betfair £40 top 5 18/1
I had a small bet last week on Soren Kjeldsen and whilst he threatened for a while a poor third round cost him but he bounced back with a best of the day 68 in the final round. He too has shown the odd good performance here (best of 5th in 2012) and is worth siding with at a three figure price £25 ew 100/1 + £15 130 Betfair
Ross Fisher seems a big price to me this week compared to other non winners around the same price. He was part of the European team that hammered Asia in the Eurasia Cup and then seemed a bit tired in Abu Dhabi before a closing round 67. His form on the Emirates course is very solid with only one missed cut in eight attempts and best finishes of 5/10/10/11/13 £25 ew 100/1 + £5 110 Betfair
Roope Kakko is an outsider I like although I wasn't sure which market to back him in! He was a respectable 23rd on his debut last year ranking 1st in putts for round and 2nd for putting average. He seems to like putting in the desert as last week he was 7th and 1st in those categories. He can also boast a win in Oman on the Challenge Tour. In the end I plumped for £20 ew top Continental European 80/1 and £10 win 450 Betfair
Second outsider is Nathan Holman - a talented youngster who won the Australian PGA Championship in December. He has improved for each start this year and whilst this is his debut he shouldn't be such big odds £10 win 620 Betfair £8 top 10 25/1 Inc ties £12 top 10 25/1
Finally a first round leader bet although I would prefer it if Richard Sterne had a morning tee time! His last seven opening rounds here read 69/69/69/68/66/62/66 which has been good enough for 4/4/1/3 in the last four starts.The 4th in 2011 cam from a late tee time - lets hope the wind doesn't blow too hard in the afternoon! £25 ew 80/1
january 31st 12.48
Was kinda glad Olesen didn't win in Qatar - two weeks in a row tipping a player to win and seeing them win the week after would have been hard to take! Also on the list was Fleetwood because of the Gleneagles link and he made a mess at the end to finish shy of the places.
It has been a week of frustration - in Singapore play was suspended with Liang in the clubhouse leader on -10, Spieth has a five foot birdie putt on 18 whilst Song has a 10 footer for par on 16. I only have Liang win only on Betfair - woke up too late to lay him back around 2/1. He was 100/1 only with Stan James, B365 and Skybet were the only ones betting without the favourites - none of which I can use. I suppose miracles can happen but I won't be holding my breath tonight when they resume!
Steven Alker still has a good chance of a return in Panama where a final hole double bogey from leader Thompson brought the field back into play.
In the Farmers Insurance we are sure to see some fun and games with rain and high winds forecast tee times have been brought forward. Scores will be high and I wouldn't be surprised to see someone post a number - I have had a small dabble on Vegas and haven't discounted in running play Bud Cauley yet
january 27th 18.46
A quick rundown of other bets
In the Singapore Open Spieth is a very short priced favourite and rightly so, but I am not convinced how good he is yet on a new course which is tough with difficult to read greens. My two suggestions to oppose him with are Wen Chong Liang (£23 130 Betfair) who has a great record around Sentosa including a 2nd, 4th and 10th and made it through Open Qualifying before and he is also a past winner in Singapore. Hyung Sung Kim has some good form here as well in those events and is now a multiple winner on the Japanese tour £20 ew 125/1
I have had my annual bet on Michael Thompson in the Farmers Insurance - low amateur here in the 2008 US Open and finally showed a bit more promise in this event last year opening with a 65 and finishing 11th. He keeps popping up on leaderboards of late only to do something stupid - last week he had three double bogeys in five holes on the host course on Saturday but topped the putting stats for the week with just 23.75!! £10 ew 250/1 5 pl + £5 ew 225/1 6 pl + £15 top 10 20/1 + £10 240 Betfair + £9 ew FRL North 50/1
The tour starts this week with the Panama Championship and I have had a couple of bets there. In the past older vets who have won events around the world have come to the fore here although youngsters Foley and Ortiz have thrown a little spanner in that works so I have gone for one from each camp.
Rodolfo Cazaubon won three times on the Latino tour last year including in Panama and also the Peru Open which past winner of this Scott Dunlap has a fine record. He may find a bit of inspiration as well in that he played on the same Eisenhouer team as Ortiz which finished 2nd in 2012 £35 ew at an average of 110/1
Steven Alker certainly fits the older vet category with multiple wins all over the place, he also was 7th here on his debut years ago holding every chance on the final day £20 ew 100/1 + £5 100 Betfair
january 26th 10.16
Time for a preview of the Qatar Masters which starts tomorrow and finishes Saturday. I will confess I had an extremely long "short list" and it has been difficult to knock players out but it's all about the price at the end of the day. I will admit to taking a shorter price than I wanted on Soren Kjeldsen but it is only by way of a saver due to his consistent form last year and his solid long term form here at Doha £12.50 ew 80/1.
Looking back through past winners I think everyone has come to the same obvious conclusion that great links players have a great record here, although the course couldn't be described as links at all it plays under very similar conditions and the roll of honour bears that out. I also found a few years ago that there is a very close correlation with form at Gleneagles.
Mikko Ilonen is certainly a fine links golfer and has some good form here in the last few years with a 9th and 2nd (playoff loss to Garcia). It has to be said that once he plays a course well he comes back quite often to perform well at the same venue - Bro Hof Slo mc/3/1 being a good example. To be honest 2015 wasn't a great year for the Finn but it is sometimes difficult to reproduce great years like 2013/14. From what I have read he has entered the new year full of hope and expectation - and has a new man on the bag in the form of Jason Hempleman - top caddie who has worked for Howell, Monty and Molinari. He kicked off in Abu Dhabi last week after a ten week tournament break and was more than happy with all three rounds under par on a course he hasn't done that well on before. £12.50 ew 80/1 £62.50 ew 66/1
If Ilonen had a poor 2015 then Brett Rumford endured a nightmare - having been taken ill in South Africa he ended up having surgery and part of his small intestine removed. Whilst he played a few events he didn't really play again properly until November winning the Western Australia PGA and followed that up with 6th and 8th in his home Masters and Open. He is a fine wind player and has a best finish here of 3rd in 2010 but has thrown in lots of low rounds over the years. He certainly fits the profile of top finishes at Gleneagles having been 2nd there twice and 6th and 7th. After a seven week break he caught my eye last week with his 35th in Abu Dhabi on a course he had missed his last four cuts. £25 ew 200/1 + £20 220 Betfair
january 20th 11.20
I wasn't going to get involved with this weeks old "Bob Hope" - the newly named Career Builders Challenge but with a new host course designed by Pete Dye and only La Quinta retained from the rotation we may have to leave event form behind so I have found three big priced outsiders who may feel comfortable on the new host course.
Robert Garrigus will have fond memories having played the Stadium course at Q School finishing 2nd in 2006 and 6th in 2008 to gain his tour card. His best result in this "event" was when 2nd in 2012 firing an excellent 64 at La Quinta and in 2010 his one tour victory came at a multi course event.He also showed a liking for another Dye course - TPC Louisiana where he was 5th in 2014. His 33rd last week was better than it looks - he was 4th for GIR and had he not double bogeyed the par 5 last (an easy birdie chance) he was booked for a top ten finish. This explains why I took £35 @ 150 on Betfair on Sunday night! but I have added £5 ew 250/1 £25 ew 200/1
In 2008 Fathauer beat Garrigus to finish 2nd at Q School and in his second tour start in 2009 opened 64/65 in the Bob Hope before collapsing. He disappeared off the golfing map for a number of years until an excellent season in 2014 on the tour culminating in victory on the Pete Dye Sawgrass Valley course. It was only two months ago that he led the OHL Classic heading into Sunday before finishing 4th and I think the books have severely underestimated him £5 ew 350/1 £5 ew 300/1 6 places £5 ew 250/1 £35 330 average Betfair
Lastly young Korean Seung Yul Noh could add to his 2014 victory on the Pete Dye Louisiana track as he also has form on the host course - 3rd in the 2011 Q School. He had his best ever finish in the Sony last week with all four rounds under par, closing with a 65 and being 2nd for putting £10 ew 200/1 + £20 230 Betfair
january 19th 12.10
Well we came very close to a bumper payout last week with 150/1 pick Lombard finishing 2nd having traded at 6/4 when he held a two shot lead but his putting stroke deserted him for a while. With Walters hitting the frame as well it wasn't a bad week in the end. On first look I wasn't inspired by the Abu Dhabi Championship but with a pair of short priced favourites and Stenson and Kaymer looking iffy in the mix of late I think it creates some each way value, plus outsiders have won the last four renewals
Brandon Stone has to go on the list having won two of his last four starts and having inspired Porteous and Lombard last week I am sure the reverse will work this week! His course form at Royal Cape and Glendower was nothing to write home about before his wins yet on his only start here at Abu Dhabi in 2014 he was 19th shooting the 4th lowest score (a 67) in the final round. He is a much better player two years on and in my opinion is a big price £30 ew 125/1 + I was lucky to get £10 200 on Betfair
Of the shorter priced players I like the look of Bernd Wiesberger who has played some good golf in the desert the last few years - with a best of 6th here last year. He won last year at Le Golf National (Larrazabal has won there and here) and lost in a playoff at the Irish Open. With a top 5 strike rate of 15% over the last four years he is well worth a play at the price £30 ew 60/1 + £30 75 Betfair
I will take a chance with Thorbjorn Olesen who finally returned to the winners enclosure at the Alfred Dunhill Links last year. Interestingly that win came three years after he was 2nd in that event - and guess what - he was 2nd here three years ago - perhaps that's an omen! £40 ew 90/1 + £15 120 Betfair
Alex Noren looks a huge price to me - probably based on the fact he has been ravaged by injury the last few years - first by constant wrist problems and then last year - just after he won again he picked up a stress fracture in his lower chest. He returned to finish off the season but will be much fitter now and has been practicing out in Dubai the last few weeks. He is a good desert player and has some low rounds around this weeks track and knows how to win so he may just make up for lost time this week. Someone told me this morning he has just become a dad as well so maybe he will be inspired by that £30 ew 200/1 + £15 215 average Betfair
january 13th 18.28
The Sony Open is one of the few PGA tour events I will be getting properly involved in this season - I guess I have a soft spot for it having bagged a couple of 100/1 winners in the past. It is an event where winners often fit the same profile - aged 30 upwards with normally a win or two already on tour, not really a big hitter or even that accurate from the tee but hits plenty GIR, plenty of course experience with some low rounds but not necessarily a high finish. Using that it is quite easy to narrow down the field and I have gone for three from the off.
Jason Dufner is my best bet here as he fits the profile to a tee! At 38 he falls in the right age category and he has three PGA wins to his name and whilst not long or overly accurate when on song he hits a lot of greens. His course form mirrors that of a lot of past winners with a couple of missed cuts, a best of 13th but rounds of 64 and 65 thrown in for good measure. Last season wasn't his best but he rounded it off with a top ten at the RSM Classic and a win in the Shark Shooutout. He ticks all the right boxes for me this week £40 ew 80/1 + £20 80 Betfair (now drifted to 90)
Marc Leishman has changed clubs which is always a worry but his course form and the way he won at the Nedbank Challenge before Christmas makes him a bet this week. He has never missed a cut in six attempts with best finishes of 5th and 9th and an excellent scoring average of 67.75. It comes as no surprise he is a popular pick this week and I am glad I got on early £25 ew 40/1 + £20 50 Betfair
Troy Merritt only has one PGA win to his name which came last year meaning he already has an outing under his belt last week in Hawaii. He opened with a 75 but then shot 14 under for the last three rounds so has clearly shaken off the rust. Whist he has missed two of four cuts here he co-led after round one on his debut and last year was 3rd heading into the final round so is certainly worth a bet in the FRL market as well £15 ew 250/1 + £10 ew 150/1 FRL
Last bet is a small FRL bet on Webb Simpson who has a Thursday record here of 2/62/24/5/7/2 - £10 ew 80/1

january 13th 15.03
Time for a quick look at this weeks picks - first of all the Joburg Open - where over the last few years local players from Joburg or the wider area of Pretoria have dominated so thats where I originally concentrated my research.
Main pick is Justin Walters who was born in Joburg although he no longer lives there and who was 2nd here in 2014 when he had a good chance of winning heading into Sunday. Whilst he is still to win a big event in South Africa he has two smaller titles to his name and came close to winning the Portugal Masters as well a couple years ago. What really caught my eye about his 4th place in the South African Open last week was his poor course form at Glendower in previous attempts - c/c/52/c - so his game is obviously in good order. The price of 50/1 was enough to tempt me in - just - £25 ew 50/1 6 places £25 ew 50/1 5 places
Young Zander Lombard is sure to be inspired by fellow youngster Brandon Stone last week although he probably isn't quite as talented. As a Joburg resident he knows the courses well having played plenty of amateur events here. Before Christmas he travelled to Australia and played really well most of the week - he had a great chance of winning before coming 4th in the PGA Championship. He played really well last week to finish 12th on a course he had missed the cut badly both times he had played previously so I think he is maturing quickly as a player £30 ew 150/1 6 places
One non South African I want to back this week is Craig Lee despite the lack of professional titles to his name. His 24th place finish last week was probably better than it looks as he undid himself with a quaddruple bogey eight on Sunday. His best finish in South Africa came in last years Tshwane Open when 3rd and whilst his best finish in this event is 17th he has plenty of low rounds and been in contention on numerous occasions £10 ew 125/1 £15 ew 100/1 6 places £5 win 125 average Betfair

january 6th 17.49
Apologies for delay - a brief rundown of this weeks bets
Hyundai - Scott Piercy - a three time winner on tour who doesn't deserve to be this big a price - found his legs in Hawaii in the Sony Open last year when 2nd £30 80 Betfair
The South African Open returns to Glendower for the third time - the two winners Madsen and Sullivan both have good records at Kennemer and East London - and I have concentrated on these and other parkland courses
Gary Stal - main bet of the week - was 5th here last year even after opening with a 75. He then went on to win in Abu Dhabi and be 4th in Dubai before tailing off. He was a two time winner on the Challenge Tour in 2012 and if he can start this season like last then he is a big price this week - £50 ew 50/1 + £50 65 average Betfair
Oliver Fisher - course debutant who has been 2nd at East London and 11th and 9th at Kennemer so the course should suit. He ended last season in solid form with nine straight cuts - three figure price just seemed a little big £20 ew 125/1
Johan Carlsson - 7th here on first ever European tour start so should have some fond memories. Best ever finish was 5th Kenemmer and played well a month ago to finish 3rd in Mauritius £15 ew 200/1 + £20 275 average Betfair
Estanislao Goya - was 2nd in Russia in September on a similar layout - winner Slattery was 3rd here last year. At home on parkland courses and won in South Africa two years ago £15 ew 250/1 + £15 340 average Betfair
Gary Boyd - best form on parkland courses - 2nd and 5th Royal Park I Roveri. Solid form on the Challenge tour in the second half of last year with six top five finishes - which maybe the best he can hope for this week - £5 ew 175/1 + £20 top 5 35/1
Nacho Elvira - just seemed a big price on Betfair for a player who won three times on the lower tour last year £15 610
Jbe Kruger - my one home player - seems to start well here - 1st and 2nd last two years after opening round and also ledd his home Open a few years previously £12.50 ew 80/1 + £20 ew 66/1 FRL
Robert Rock - just too big a price on Betfair to ignore £20 160
Christiaan Bezuidenhout - oops - nearly forgot him - won two minor events around Glendower in the Autumn. Says he loves the course and won the Sunshine Tour Q School £10 ew 200/1 FRL
january 4th 10.39
Well I would love to say I am fit and raring to go for 2016 but have been suffering from a cough and cold for the past week - actually most golfers would say "flu like symptoms" or even pneumonia lol. It always seems to strike when I take time off - maybe I shouldn't bother! Anyway - lets just say I am raring to go.
There will be a few changes this year - no more horse tips - although there maybe the odd mention on Twitter - but tbh it is more of a hobby which I make a small profit in.
On the golf front - again I will concentrate on events away from the PGA tour where I have continued to struggle to make a profit except in weak events and I may dabble in running a bit more. On the results page I will break down profit by event and tour rather than a weekly P&L.
I will also be changing when most tips go up - due to the increasing stranglehold on any wothwhile betting accounts it looks like I will be increasingly dependent on Betfair to get on and the markets don't normally get competitive until Wednesday. Although this poses a bit of a problem with seas of blue on Oddschecker early in the week - I will just have to sit back and bide my time. Of course if I see a price I like and I can get on - I will!
Well thats it for now - hoping for a good year again - cheers
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